Speculation: Roster Building Thread III (2019/2020) - Tick Tock

[Paulie Walnutz]

I’m not following either, what was your point?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Kreider will play with chytil if chytil is ready for the 2c spot and will either have kakko or buch to start on the rw. Watching those video highlights of kakko is so interesting because he just doesnt lose the puck! He literally bodies men and you see the difference with laine. Laine has a better shot but kakkos is super accurate and kakko has 10x better vision. Training camp soon pls! Or j set up a scrim for fun and let us watch.

That one highlight earlier on when he reverse-checked that dude to the ground, swooped around behind the net and set up his teammate for the open net one timer made me feel some type of way

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

What extent? As a rookie, McDavid was one year older than a Kakko and played only 45 games with 16 goals.

And how many assists?

It can't be broken down that way but if we must, I'd expect 35-40 pts. low-end.

 

[Levitate]

Chytil lookin' thicc

 

[pld459666]

This rebuild was supposed to be about changing.

According to whom?

The Rangers are never and should never ignore their financial might.

This is, was and always will be a team that flexes that might when they feel they are close.

You clearly disagree, but that doesn't make THEM wrong.

If you thought for a fraction of a second that this was going to be some 5 year plan, that's on you.

Once the 2nd OA fell in their lap, modifications to the rebuild started to take shape.

Just like there is no one way to win a Stanley Cup, there is no one way to rebuild franchise.

And, I'd point to the most recent ranking by three sources that indicate that we have the best system in the NHL.

The foundation is in place.

The only change that I'm looking for now is to not fall back into the cycle of trading young assets for old players.

You are absolutely entitled to your opinion, but if the premise under which you formed that opinion is that the Rangers were no longer going to sign premiere Free Agents, then you set yourself up for disappointment.

It could be that you differ from NYR brass on when that time was. That's fair, but I would also disagree with you on that as well.

 

[Levitate]

I'd just point out that right or wrong, the Rangers never said this was going to be a long 5 year suck that entire time draft top 5 over and over and then try to rebuild type of scenario and have talked multiple times about "speeding it up"
Maybe it's the wrong move but everything they've done has been consistent with what they've said

 

[NernieBichols]

The thing about Panarin is that I'm willing to overpay for legitimate world class talent.

Trouba is not that. He's good but nothing special.

So here we are praying the cap goes up because we **** our pants before it actually went up.

That sounds just like always!

Your offbase man. They spent the money this summer bc the quality of the two guys, they will be letting contracts expire, and using the money that frees up on extending the players who emerge as core players.

It’s likely they forecast who will/might be available in the summer of 2020, and 2021 to determine hey if we held off on bringing in these high level guys, could we realistically get players better or at least of their caliber or should we get these guys now and have them helping from the start.

Rangers likely won’t make a big splash or signing in UFA now for another 3-4 years. Money will go to resigning core players and/or players targeted in hockey trades.

 

[NernieBichols]

Calling Trouba a foundational player is a perfect example of how overrated he's become since getting traded to the Rangers.

DeAngelo is going to be a better defenseman.

Machinehead Proclaimation of 2019

Somebody should compile a chronological list of all his proclaimations. That might be an all-time read

 

[NernieBichols]

A year ago you thought Trouba was the second best American defenseman. What's changed, besides him going to the Rangers?

Best American defenseman right now #2

Hawkeyes over here. Do you have files on everyone lol

Busted though. 180 on trouba huh Mh

 

[Levitate]

I mean it's always possible he doens't like how Trouba has progressed though from what I can tell the general idea seems to be that he has gotten better?

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

Machinehead Proclaimation of 2019

Somebody should compile a chronological list of all his proclaimations. That might be an all-time read

So glad this site has the ignore feature. I save so many minutes every day not having to navigate through nonsense.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I reckon a guess Gorton would like one more top end talent from the 2020 draft to go with this group

If you could snag Byfield somehow I’m comfortable declaring the rebuild over completely

 

[NYR94]

I reckon a guess Gorton would like one more top end talent from the 2020 draft to go with this group

If you could snag Byfield somehow I’m comfortable declaring the rebuild over completely

Byfield would be amazing. Sign me up.

 

[RangerBoy]

Every time(and I really mean every time like they are aware Panarin will be 28 and they just gave him so much money while at the same time are preaching patience and process). JD discusses Panarin, he always throws out the caveat about Panarin still being a productive player when the Rangers young players have become stars in 2-3 years.

Panarin will be 28 this October. How many prime seasons are left? Two? The Rangers better hope it is at least two for the amount of money they have committed to Panarin.

The Rangers gave one player 7/$81.5M and they don’t expect to win in the few remaining prime seasons left in that player.

It’s not like the Rangers are winning this or next season and they can say “we will deal with the fall out after we hopefully have won”.

Some of the same people who brought us Shattenkirk now have brought in Panarin.

 

[Fitzy]

Panarin will be 28 this October. How many prime seasons are left? Two? The Rangers better hope it is at least two for the amount of money they have committed to Panarin.

.

There's no way of knowing this, and yet you assume the most negative possible outcome. Some players are washed up at 30, others have near career years at age 35.

Most, probably 95%, are in between.

I think the matter of how many prime seasons are left is another one of these needless oversimplifications like "Generational." The reality is that all players decline at varying rates through their late 20's and their 30's, and what matters is twofold

1) The rate of the decline
2) The age the decline begins

Blake Wheeler is 32 and hasn't started his decline yet. Injuries matter a lot. Concussions in particular. If we just assumed a Wheeler curve instead of your more pessimistic one, the possibility exists that we get 5 genuine top flight seasons of Panarin.

Obviously, Panarin's hasn't started yet. But it would be far less catastrophic if he "declined" starting now, but slowly, and was still a 60 point player in his mid 30s, then if he followed the trajectory of a Rick Nash.

 

[NernieBichols]

Every time(and I really mean every time like they are aware Panarin will be 28 and they just gave him so much money while at the same time are preaching patience and process). JD discusses Panarin, he always throws out the caveat about Panarin still being a productive player when the Rangers young players have become stars in 2-3 years.

Panarin will be 28 this October. How many prime seasons are left? Two? The Rangers better hope it is at least two for the amount of money they have committed to Panarin.

The Rangers gave one player 7/$81.5M and they don’t expect to win in the few remaining prime seasons left in that player.

It’s not like the Rangers are winning this or next season and they can say “we will deal with the fall out after we hopefully have won”.

Some of the same people who brought us Shattenkirk now have brought in Panarin.

Panarin’s gonna serve you bread consistently for the next 5 years and your gonna like it.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

Every time(and I really mean every time like they are aware Panarin will be 28 and they just gave him so much money while at the same time are preaching patience and process). JD discusses Panarin, he always throws out the caveat about Panarin still being a productive player when the Rangers young players have become stars in 2-3 years.

Panarin will be 28 this October. How many prime seasons are left? Two? The Rangers better hope it is at least two for the amount of money they have committed to Panarin.

The Rangers gave one player 7/$81.5M and they don’t expect to win in the few remaining prime seasons left in that player.

It’s not like the Rangers are winning this or next season and they can say “we will deal with the fall out after we hopefully have won”.

Some of the same people who brought us Shattenkirk now have brought in Panarin.

I’m thinking maybe the Rangers feel that just when Panarin’s play starts to dip, the younger guys’ play will increase and maybe elevate Panarin.

 

[LokiDog]

Panarin’s game will age well because he doesn’t rely on physicality and his body hasn’t been through the rigors of the NA game for as long as his age would indicate. He only has 4 seasons of NHL hockey under his belt. I have no doubts he’s still a highly productive player in years 4 and 5. I won’t be surprised if he’s still a 60-70 point player until the end of the contract especially if guys like Kaako and Chytil reach their potential and he’s playing with them, but I would be surprised if he isn’t at least a 50+ point guy at that point. I feel that with Panarin, with a lot less NHL mileage on his body, is actually locked up for 4-5 prime years on this deal and will still be a pretty damn good player even at 34-35 years old.

And I really wasn’t his biggest fan in Chicago or Columbus. Completely aware of his talent, but just never a player I had a strong affinity for. Even with that in mind, it’s hard for me not to feel like we have better odds of getting 5 prime seasons out of him than only 2.

 

[Leetch3]

panarin not being good when the team is good, makes his signing terrible. and it might mean the rangers misjudge the timing of things and how far along they were in the process...it does not mean that the rangers have scrapped their plans.

the rangers did NOT change their plans...they brought in trouba and panarin to be part of the plans. they might be wrong and it might not work out, but being wrong isn't the same as scrapping your plans and going back to the old way.

I realize that some people would like use to get rid of everyone not on an ELC and never pay anyone over $1m and never have anyone over 23 so we can finish last every year, but i don't understand why this concept is so hard

I think some people think that tanking and rebuilding are the same thing...and they aren't. tanking to get a top pick can be part of a rebuild. but a rebuild is much more complicated than sucking for a couple years to get a few top picks and then everything is magically fixed. thats not how it works.

 

[Kupo]

There's no way of knowing this, and yet you assume the most negative possible outcome. Some players are washed up at 30, others have near career years at age 35

Good post, but you can’t really fault RB here.

How often have these big contracts worked out for us In the past? It seems like most teams regret these kind of signings.

Sometimes it’s not even about a players natural decline. All it takes is one hit or some bad luck and that monsterous contract handicaps you for a long time.

I was vehemently against signing Panarin. He’s a Ranger now so I’m excited to see what he can do. The big relief with him is the lack of games he’s played at the NHL level. He’s also been Injury free.

This wasn’t like signing Gomez or Drury, but it’s a risky investment and Posters like RB that are skeptical aren’t crazy for it.

 

[Machinehead]

Machinehead Proclaimation of 2019

Somebody should compile a chronological list of all his proclaimations. That might be an all-time read

You'll find me being right a lot in that read but nobody remembers those.

 

[Machinehead]

Staal should be phased into the scratch he should have been for years now.

Staal should be phased into a tank at the zoo where he can't harm anyone.

 

[haveandare]

Could just be my summer optimism where nothing is happening so everything can potentially go right, but man, the preemptive complaining and worrying in here is a real buzzkill.

Panarin's style isn't very physical and he has light NHL mileage on him. He should age as well as anyone. Having said that, yeah, like all UFA retirement deals, there will be some years at the end where he's paid for the past. This isn't unique to him or the Rangers at all.

Trouba isn't an all-star 1D but he's a first pairing guy and far and away our best d-man today. Yeah, maybe ADA or someone else will be better than him in some time. If so, that's good for us. Having good players isn't some problem. But, today, in reality, he's out best d-man by a good bit. His salary is a lot today but will be normal for a not-elite first pairing d-man sooner than most people realize I'd bet.

We paid two great players a lot of money. Ideally, you get great players on ELCs, but life isn't perfect. Barring some truly horrendous luck, even beyond typical bad NYR luck, we will have great young players on ELC and have these guys making normal money for their play at the same time in a few years, maybe less depending how quickly guys like Kakko, Kravtsov and Fox put it together.

As for being able to keep everyone, Gorton isn't in way over his head being a GM like Dubas is. I'm not concerned about his ability to manage the cap overall. We have a ton of money coming off the books in roles that will cost a fraction of the current expenses to replace. Bottom 6 wingers and bottom pairing d-men aren't hard to find and certainly aren't hard to find at prices lower than we're paying for a lot of the ones we have now.

 

[Raspewtin]

Good post, but you can’t really fault RB here.

How often have these big contracts worked out for us In the past? It seems like most teams regret these kind of signings.

Sometimes it’s not even about a players natural decline. All it takes is one hit or some bad luck and that monsterous contract handicaps you for a long time.

I was vehemently against signing Panarin. He’s a Ranger now so I’m excited to see what he can do. The big relief with him is the lack of games he’s played at the NHL level. He’s also been Injury free.

This wasn’t like signing Gomez or Drury, but it’s a risky investment and Posters like RB that are skeptical aren’t crazy for it.

Kappo Kakko can suffer a monster hit that cripples him or get some outrageously bad luck too. It's not exclusive to 28 year olds.

 

[Kupo]

Kappo Kakko can suffer a monster hit that cripples him or get some outrageously bad luck too. It's not exclusive to 28 year olds.

Kappo’s an 18 year old on his ELC.

Panarin’s a 28 year old with 81m invested.

Every player Is 1 hit away from an injury in hockey. Not every player has an 11M cap hit for the next 7 years.