Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2022-23): The Puck is Prepared to be Mounted

[UAGoalieGuy]

Trade both firsts. We can’t develop forwards anyway. Why keep the picks?

Draft Defensemen then!

 

[ReddestRum]

 

[egelband]

The fact that he never came close to 70 again leads me to believe it was absolutely a fluke like Cheechoo getting 50

I’d say the season and everything coming together was a fluke but the talent was legit. Like Kreider, last season was a fluke in that there were really no ‘issues’ for krieder. No injuries. Stable linemates. IV stream of power play minutes. Team harmony. Selanne was clearly an incredible elite talent and that season everything just fell into place to allow him to be his best self.

 

[bhamill]

It's never a fluke when it's a Hall of Fame talent. It's just variance.

Was it a fluke that Aaron Judge hit 62 homers? He's never coming close again. I would bet all of my cap space that the best he does is barely crack 50 again because that's life and that's statistical variance.

If he hits 51 one year and that's a wrap on his career years, I would sign up right now. I still don't think it's a fluke. He had an 11 WAR season. He hits the ball harder then any player in history. He's good enough to have one 11 WAR season. The analytics back it up.

Hotter take, I don't think it's a fluke that Kreider scored 52. He legitimately just had a better season than he ever had. He topped his average shot output by more than 150. He had the puck more and was doing more with it by times two.

Well the definition of fluke is an unlikely occurrence, especially if luck is involved.
if you don’t think a lot of luck is involved in a rookie season where a player scores 76 goals, and that never coming within 24 goals of that number in more than a decade worth of subsequent seasons shows that to be an unlikely occurance, we just see things differently.
Anyway, does “aberration” work better for everyone? Because my point was that Salanne’s rookie season was not representative of his career, as great, and HOF worthy, as it may have been.

 

[Machinehead]

Well the definition of fluke is an unlikely occurrence, especially if luck is involved.
if you don’t think a lot of luck is involved in a rookie season where a player scores 76 goals, and that never coming within 24 goals of that in more than a decade worth of subsequent seasons shows that to be an unlikely occurance, we just see things differently.

"Fluke" implies that the player didn't have the ability to do what they did.

Cheechoo, yes. Selanne, no.

 

[bhamill]

"Fluke" implies that the player didn't have the ability to do what they did.

Cheechoo, yes. Selanne, no.

Well I never denied his talent so are you okay with “aberration?” Hahaha.
Though he apparently didn’t have the talent to ever come close to repeating that amazing feat.

 

[haohmaru]

Whether doing something 56 or 76 times in a season, I'd venture that neither is a fluke.

"Aberration" might be the better word for Cheechoo. Selanne averaged over a point a game for his career in nearly every season of his career. Maybe "best" would be the right word for his.

Edit - I posted this the same time as bhamill and came up with the same word. Must be right.

 

[bhamill]

Whether doing something 56 or 76 times in a season, I'd venture that neither is a fluke.

"Aberration" might be the better word for Cheechoo. Selanne averaged over a point a game for his career in nearly every season of his career. Maybe "best" would be the right word for his.

Salanne’s rookie season goal total was about 50% higher than his next highest season total… how is that not the very definition of aberration?

 

[Machinehead]

Well I never denied his talent so are you okay with “aberration?” Hahaha.

Aberration is fine. That's literally what it is.

To me, it depends on how much business the party in question has being where they are.

Leicester City won the Premier League in 2016. They would spend the next several years as a top ten team, (albeit never #1) and won an FA Cup. That's an aberration.

At one point across 20-21 and 21-22, the Habs won like 38 out of 130 games, the worst team in the league by some distance. 13 of those wins were during their 2021 SCF run. That's a fluke.

 

[haohmaru]

Salanne’s rookie season goal total was about 50% higher than his next highest season total… how is that not the very definition of aberration?

Meh - he had 52 in 11 less games (76G in 84 games, 52 in 73). That's a 60 goal pace too and in the ballpark.

 

[NYR Viper]

Cheechoo was Matt Moulson with a better supporting class.

Always saw Kreider as a combination of Anders Lee and Jason Chimera.

Erik Cole was always my hope for Kreider. We’ll see if he ages like him

 

[Guyute]

Erik Cole was always my hope for Kreider. We’ll see if he she’s like him

I beg your pardon?

 

[mas0764]

Why the hell are so many people throwing Zac Jones into rental deals or for non long term pieces? We just cleared out a logjam by moving Nils to accommodate him.

People have no patience.

Vince Mercogliano discussed Jones on his recent podcast. Scouts and people around the Rangers are concerned with his ability to clear the net front and do physically demanding things required of NHL defensemen. Size is an issue. Jones needs to play in an offensive role and the Rangers don't have a spot for him with Fox on the team. Lundkvist was in the same boat. He is not suited for a bottom six role. The size is an issue. The Rangers aren’t getting a 1st and conditional 4th which can become a 3rd for Jones.

The cost of a rental D is high. Savard went for a 1st. Chiarot went for a 1st. That was an awful deal for Florida. Gavrikov is the guy this year.

Kulikov is an experienced NHL D. Verbeek got Kulikov for free. Kulikov would be a good fit for the Rangers 6th D role. He can't be very expensive to acquire in a trade. $2.25M cap.

Trading Jones for an experienced LD signed to a modest contract beyond this season would be ideal. Does that player even exist?

Would Columbus swap Gavrikov for Jones and a non-1st or 2nd round pick? Columbus wants to re-sign him. The Rangers rent the player for the playoffs. Will teams will tossing around 1st round picks in 2023 this spring for rentals?

Would the Blues be interested in re-acquiring Blais? Barbashev is also a group III after this season. The latter has a higher cap hit. $2,250,000. Barbashev had a breakout season in 21-22 but his production has dropped to his previous season levels. He can play the wing(more left than right) and in the middle. He can kill penalties. He could be injury insurance if Chytil gets hurt. Gallant can use him in different roles. The Rangers can put him with Panarin and Zibanejad. It would be nice if Gallant just leaves Kravtsov on that line for more than a few periods. Barbashev with Trocheck and Kreider. Other players drop in the lineup. Goodrow, Vesey would play the role the Rangers signed him for but Vesey hasn’t been terrible playing up in the lineup. The Rangers would be taking on $750,000. Would the Rangers be interested in adding money? They would still have $1M in cap savings from the Reaves trade to use on another acquisition. Reaves is at $1.75M. $750,000 difference between Blais and Barbashev. The Blues change the mix of their club. They get a player they know very well who can add some energy and grit into their lineup. The Rangers haven't seen the energy and grit from Blais. The Blues are a team which isn’t interested in a rebuild, retool or reset. They have some key free agents coming up. ROR and Tarasenko. ROR looks like he is done. He was never the greatest skater but he was effective. Tarasenko can still shoot the puck. Before Doug Armstrong is forced to make a trade which he doesn't want to make, he tries a small move to get his team going. Blais for Barbashev. There aren’t many players Armstrong can trade to deliver a wake up call. He has too many players signed to long term contracts. Some players he doesn't want to trade. The Blues can't really add significant money. Blais for Barbashev.

On a recent podcast(32T or Marek show),Elliotte Friedman said Edmonton was interested in Reaves. On a recent podcast, Seravalli said Edmonton is looking to add another element in their bottom six. Edmonton has money issues. What did Holland offer the Rangers for Reaves? Edmonton was interested in Georgiev but they wanted to send money back to the Rangers. Blais would bring another element to the Oilers.

Vancouver? They have Travis Dermott at $1.5M who is a serviceable D. Would they swap Dermott for Blais?

$1.5M isn’t a lot of money but $1.5M is a lot of money on the Rangers. Motte at $1.35M would be a better player than Blais.

He means to say the Rangers front office requires D to have size. Flip him for an equal age defenseman with size and similar upside then.

 

[Profet]

Well I never denied his talent so are you okay with “aberration?” Hahaha.
Though he apparently didn’t have the talent to ever come close to repeating that amazing feat.

"Statistical anomaly. "

Or

"Statistical outlier."

 

[bhamill]

Meh - he had 52 in 11 less games (76G in 84 games, 52 in 73). That's a 60 goal pace too and in the ballpark.

Meh. He never scored within 24 goals of that total again. You can talk about pace all day. And even at a 60 goal pace, 76 is MORE than a 25% increase from there. That’s not ballpark. 5% sure. Ballpark. 10%, not really but you can argue it. 25%? No f***in way. Haha. If a contractor comes in 25% higher say 50k instead of his 40K quote would you just write it off as being “in the ballpark”? Come on. This is such a weird thing to not want to admit, to insist that a rookie season 50% higher in goals than any other season is somehow NOT an aberration. Hahahaha.

"Statistical anomaly. "

Or

"Statistical outlier."

Sure. Those are other terms for aberration.

Really all I was saying is that his 76 goal rookie season was not a great measuring stick of his still brilliant career.

 

[smoneil]

Fluke. .

 

[kovazub94]

It's never a fluke when it's a Hall of Fame talent. It's just variance.

Was it a fluke that Aaron Judge hit 62 homers? He's never coming close again. I would bet all of my cap space that the best he does is barely crack 50 again because that's life and that's statistical variance.

If he hits 51 one year and that's a wrap on his career years, I would sign up right now. I still don't think it's a fluke. He had an 11 WAR season. He hits the ball harder then any player in history. He's good enough to have one 11 WAR season. The analytics back it up.

Hotter take, I don't think it's a fluke that Kreider scored 52. He legitimately just had a better season than he ever had. He topped his average shot output by more than 150. He had the puck more and was doing more with it by times two.

It comes back to what meaning you put in the word “fluke”. Do you want to call it a “perfect storm” or that “stars aligned” or whatever the original point was that 76 goal rookie season from Selanne was an outlier in itself. Can another rookie do it right now? Possible but again it’s more likely that it will be another outlier than that there’ll be a new star who would make 70-goal season a regular thing.

Edit: sorry I read all the following back and forth afterwards so didn’t realize something similar was already said.

 

[Barnaby]

Meh. He never scored within 24 goals of that total again. You can talk about pace all day. And even at a 60 goal pace, 76 is MORE than a 25% increase from there. That’s not ballpark. 5% sure. Ballpark. 10%, not really but you can argue it. 25%? No f***in way. Haha. If a contractor comes in 25% higher say 50k instead of his 40K quote would you just write it off as being “in the ballpark”? Come on. This is such a weird thing to not want to admit, to insist that a rookie season 50% higher in goals than any other season is somehow NOT an aberration. Hahahaha.


Sure. Those are other terms for aberration.

Really all I was saying is that his 76 goal rookie season was not a great measuring stick of his still brilliant career.

I mean, a HOF player having a career best year isn’t a fluke. An aberration, sure, I guess. The guy was a HOF player and all the stars aligned to have a best year. The guy proved he was capable of putting up star numbers year after year. As for ‘pacing’ I’m generally not a fan either such as Boeser being a 30 goal scorer because he’s ‘paced’ for it once or twice. A HOF talent scoring 50 plus a few times and pacing for it is a different story. He showed for near a decade he was capable of dropping it year after year.

If McDavid averages 110 points a year, then one year goes off and hits 140 or 150, are we calling that a HOF player having a career year or fluke. To me, a fluke is luck. Selanne was a great…

 

[RangersFan1994]

Just draft the next Dom Moore and Jesper Fast with those 2 first round picks. They do better at drafting 4th liners than guys who can score and be 1st line forwards. The last 1st line forward the Rangers drafted that actually made the NHL and stayed was Kreider. Lias Andersson wanted out, McIlrath stunk, Lunkvist wanted a trade cause he was not handed a spot. At least Chytil did not request a trade and worked hard in the AHL and worked on his English.

too early to determine Lafy and Kakko As top line talent

 

[surlysailor]

Just draft the next Dom Moore and Jesper Fast with those 2 first round picks. They do better at drafting 4th liners than guys who can score and be 1st line forwards. The last 1st line forward the Rangers drafted that actually made the NHL and stayed was Kreider. Lias Andersson wanted out, McIlrath stunk, Lunkvist wanted a trade cause he was not handed a spot. At least Chytil did not request a trade and worked hard in the AHL and worked on his English.

too early to determine Lafy and Kakko As top line talent

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You can also include jt miller, granted he didn’t make it here but was more recent than kreider. But on top of that you have to realize all those picks were under the old regime. Esp the euro picks, the head of euro scouting who wanted those guys (and I.I.r.c. Promised most of them they were nhl ready) is reunited with gorts in the nhl. Also gordie Clarke is gone. The new guy was from Toronto and when it was announced I think most of the prospect guys on here were pretty stoked on it.

 

[GAGLine]

You can also include jt miller, granted he didn’t make it here but was more recent than kreider. But on top of that you have to realize all those picks were under the old regime. Esp the euro picks, the head of euro scouting who wanted those guys (and I.I.r.c. Promised most of them they were nhl ready) is reunited with gorts in the nhl. Also gordie Clarke is gone. The new guy was from Toronto and when it was announced I think most of the prospect guys on here were pretty stoked on it.

Buchnevich and Duclair were both good picks. 3rd rounders instead of 1sts, but we developed Buch into a PPG player. The fact that we traded Buch doesn't negate the work that we did with him. We traded Duclair before we had a chance to really develop him, but he managed to turn into a 31 goal scorer, so at least we were right in identifying the talent.

 

[surlysailor]

Buchnevich and Duclair were both good picks. 3rd rounders instead of 1sts, but we developed Buch into a PPG player. The fact that we traded Buch doesn't negate the work that we did with him. We traded Duclair before we had a chance to really develop him, but he managed to turn into a 31 goal scorer, so at least we were right in identifying the talent.

Absolutely, and so far people seem to be over the moon with drury’s early draft picks. Othmann might have a ways to go but he looks great so far. Sykora might not be a top line guy but def can be a pest, defensive player with some potential upside. Def an nhler at some point. Some of his mid-late round picks are head scratchers but laba has been solid. Was hoping more from lamb but drury seems to be doing well for the most part.

 

[redwhiteandblue]

If this team is in a secure playoff position / outlook come deadline time and they don’t add a top 6 forward then they are wasting their time AND the ELC years of their younger guys when they can add cap. Its okay to have a mix of young talent and veterans, i promise.

Artemi, Mika, Trouba, Kreider, Goodrow... I mean that's some pretty solid veteran leadership. I don't have a problem adding depth pieces to our veteran guys, but this team does not need Patrick Kane. And I highly doubt in this financial climate there is going to be a big move on the table that is going to help them a) push for a Cup or b) be a long term fit/solution.

You seem to believe that we "have to" make a move because guys are on ELC and we need to capitalize on the moment.... well you realize that we will be looking at potentially 2 ELC guys to mix in with vets like Laffy, Kakko, Key, Fox, Shesty, etc... if we don't trade these two picks.

There's a difference of opinion about whether we have to make a move. I think not making a move would help these guys have to pull up their britches. At the very least, it would be a great learning experience and they would still be a legitimate threat.

 

[GAGLine]

Absolutely, and so far people seem to be over the moon with drury’s early draft picks. Othmann might have a ways to go but he looks great so far. Sykora might not be a top line guy but def can be a pest, defensive player with some potential upside. Def an nhler at some point. Some of his mid-late round picks are head scratchers but laba has been solid. Was hoping more from lamb but drury seems to be doing well for the most part.

These are all of Drury's draft picks:

Of the 2021s, Lamb, Boyko and Kempf seem to have stagnated or regressed. I hoped Korczak would stick in the AHL or at least the ECHL, but he's doing well in the WHL. Maybe he just needs another year to be physically ready for the AHL. Even though he was eligible to play in the AHL, it's still his D+2 season, when most CHL players are still playing in the CHL.

Othmann has done a lot of good things, but I'm not completely sold on his potential yet. Grubbe has rebounded nicely from a bad injury, but he'll need to continue to improve. Vaisanen and Chmelar are both showing well in the WJC so far, but it's only 1 game, and it's a long way from there to a spot in the NHL.

For the 2022s, we don't have much yet to go on. We'll see how Sykora looks in the WJC. BOB has been doing well so far in the OHL and Laba has had a surprising start, both in the NCAA and by his inclusion on the US WJC team (even if he doesn't get to play). With the other 3, there's really nothing to get excited about yet. Barbashev has been decent and the other two are younger guys in college programs, so they may have to wait their turn.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

There's a difference of opinion about whether we have to make a move. I think not making a move would help these guys have to pull up their britches. At the very least, it would be a great learning experience and they would still be a legitimate threat.

It's going to take more than one move to even put us in the position we were in last season.

Kane is not going to solve any problems or put us closer to the cup.