Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2022-23): The Puck is Prepared to be Mounted

[duhmetreE]

I agree.


It must have been too late last night when I was messing around on CapFriendly. This works and it is very good.

I wonder how many years at $4.5M for Chytil. 5? Take him to 28-29 years old?

Probably 2-3. Eat his last RFA year and take 1-2 UFA years. Hits UFA at a prime age and with cap taking off. Might even benefit from a 1 year deal but with his nagging injury past, I wouldn't advise it.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Rangers, and other teams, should be able to find bargain bin guys to fill out their lower lines. Here are some examples of guys who will probably be low cost options:

Vesey
Lucic
Okposo
Hornqvist
Dadonov
Donskoi
Foligno (Nick)
Eller
Smith (Craig)
Namestnikov
Girgensons
Bonino
Fast
Rodriguez
Nosek
Blais
Hathaway
Stastny
Watson
Motte
Cogliano
Janmark
Heinen
Perry


Drury should be able to find 2-3 guys from this list that can fill the role of 10-13 forward pretty easily.

 

[Savant]

No one is crying. I'm pointing out another bad decision by Drury. Why would I care what others are doing. I'm talking about our GM.

Grow up? WTF are you talking about? If you can't have a civil conversation maybe you shouldn't engage? Give yourself a timeout

It’s not a bad decision by Drury if everyone else made a bad decision too. You can’t make it exclusive to Drury here. You obviously have an agenda though so don’t let me stop you. Drury has done plenty wrong, but I am not getting out the pitchforks for this. It’s a waste of energy

 

[Machinehead]

This idea that we should get another Lindgren because "wow they have the same last name!" is giving me Staal PTSD.

 

[bleedblue94]

Goodrow buyout seems like it might be necessary if this is true

And we rip more of the heart out of this roster and continue to weaken the bottom 6. Goodrow is not the best option to make this work. There will be something bigger if it comes to it but I still think the pa and league negotiate this to a soft landing.

 

[duhmetreE]

Trouba is most likely gone for the 2024-2025 season

 

[bleedblue94]

We can't even find a 3rd pair ld but we are trading our 1st pair ld to save money, sooo we can try to replace that glaring hole with another ld that will probably cost more money. Will be shocked if Lindy is dealt.

Part of me thinks the org is being so stubborn with the vet core in part so that if they do need to move someone out there can be no question that it was necessary bc they didn't get it done.

 

[JimmyG89]

This idea that we should get another Lindgren because "wow they have the same last name!" is giving me Staal PTSD.

I get Hossa and Fedorov PTSD before Staal. At least Eric Staal had a successful career before coming to NY.

 

[kinger8998]

WARNING: Long post concering Chytil, Miller, Laf contract and offseason cap implications

First: projecting Chytils totals out to 43 points this season, that would mean an additional 29 points to his current 14.

That would sit him at a career points total of 136 in 327 career games. Signing date at age of 23.

The closest contractual comparison per Cap Friendy is 99.7% with Jeff Carters deal in 2008. Signed at age 23, Jeff Carter of 132 points in 225 games signed a 3 year contract worth 5 million per year, 8.83% of the cap at the time.
If Chytil signs for 3 years, at an 8.83% cap hit, he's come in at a whopping $7.37M. Very unlikely he gets that much via offer sheet, NYR, or if he's traded elsewhere he still gets less I feel.

Netx up is Pierre Luc Dubois signing a 2-year deal worth $5.000M AAV in the most recent contract 2020. First off, Chytils had his bridge, I'd be shocked with anything short of a 3 year pact, and I think Chytils camp will aim for 4+. Nonetheless, lets compare. Dubois, a 3rd overall pick as it should be noted as that often can play into negotiations with threats of offer sheets/prospect status/importance, had 158 points in 234 games. More points, less games. Already some discrepancies in both length and now likely AAV as well. $5M was 6.14% of the cap, so if Chytil signed a 2-year deal now a direct cap translation would mean $5.127M. Not a terrible cap hit for him, but certainly not the term I'd sense NYR or Chytil prefer.

So we move onto Alexander Wennberg at a 93.6% match. Signed at age 22, Wennberg got 6 years and an AAV of $4.9 after 119 points in 217 games. So, say Chytil is in and around 5-7 years, a direct cap comparison might put him at $5.450M (6.53% of cap). This would be a deal I'd be much more open to, and expecting to be honest.

Liking the Wennberg comparable, let's lock Chytil in a $5.450M for 5-7 years doesn't matter for sake of next
seasons cap specifically. Now,assuming the cap goes up by $1M, I'd say the NYR are forced to bridge both Miller and Laf. Laf is likely looking bridge anyways, while NYR normally like to sign core D long term, don't think cap will allow.

Easy guess would be close to Lindgren at 2-3 x $3M. He will have played 217 games at seasons end with a orjected 77 career points. Using Capfriendly again we can find a good example of Darnell Nurse.

Nurse, at 23 in 2018, signed for 2 years at a $3.2M AAV (4.03% of cap). Direct comparison would put Miller at 2 x $3.365. Close enough to LIndgrens contract.

So, Miller now at 2-3 x $3.250 (splitting difference of AAVs ish). No sense contorting over a LT deal for Laf, he won't want it and org can't commit big money...yet. Lock him in at a replica of Kakko's deal 2 x 2.1.

We now have a skeleton roster of the following with $6.836M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-xxx
Laf-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-xxx
xxx-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
xxx-Trouba
xxx

Igor
xxx

For exercise purposes, lets assume both Othmann and Cuylle supplement the roster. Cuylle is ready and Othmann would've made the team this season if not for the predicament of Kravtsov and the CHL agreement coinciding in his demotion.

Speaking of Kravtsov, I'm expecting him to not be around come next season. Think thats fair whether it be TDL or offseason based on how season has gone to date. get Hajek on the first kayak down the Hudson after this season.

Best guess is we see Robertson in NHL on D next season. Physically mature, will have completed 2 full AHL seasons at end of this year. Not sure what to make of Jones, would love to see him and Robertson push eachother and compete next season and play based on matchup needs and merits, but get a sense Jones may not be here based on his demotion. If not, its depth addition at similar to his contract so we will pencil him in with xxx as the alternate for him.

Now we have this at $3.416 in Cap:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-xxx
Cuylle-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
xxx

Simple option for 3RW would be Krav if he were still here, but cannot see that being the case as I think he's likely gone in deadline rental deal or traded for pick at draft. Wildcard would be attaching him to Goodrow as an "incentive" of a young player with untapped potential for taking Goodrows contract. With over $3M to fill presumably 3 roster spots, maybe we don't need to pull trigger on moving him though.

Vesey comes back on $900K deal and is ineitably pencilled back onto Kreider and Trochecks RW.
I'd like to see Julien Gauthier back. Not sure that happens, he's requested a trade previously but maybe that sentiment has changes with consistent spot in lineup. Wouldn't mind seeing him with a top 9 opportunity, think his game would mix well with Trocheck and Othmann. Lets bring him back at $900K as well.

Updated 22-man roster of the following with $0.841M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Othmann
Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey
Cuylle-Goodrow-Gauthier
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
Domingue.

or

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-Gauthier
Cuylle-Goodrow-Vesey
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Jones-Trouba
Robertson/xxx

Igor
Domingue

Now, if the escrow miraculously gets paid off, we have an extra 3 million for potentially an upgrade at RW, backup G or defense. If not, its likely the NYR still choose to move one of Lindgren or Goodrow to alleviate some of this cap squeeze as $814K is not a ton of wiggle room for injuries and thats assuming each contract doesn't go slightly over. Not likely. I like to think I used reason and logic and facts here, but even then, negotiations aren't always exact and contracts and salary cap isn't an exact science.

Could NYR move Goodrow to free Cap? Could they move Lindgren and allow Robertson to essentially fill his slot next to Fox as a similar style player? Huge risk as a rookie with Fox in contending years. That would allow Jones with Trouba 3LD and Miller-Schneider to return from last night.
Could the NYR shock everyone and move BOTH Lindgren and Goodrow?

Do NYR see issues on D, utilize extra 1st rounder this year, and use next years knowing they won't have cap to add rental worth 1st rounder to get Chychrun? 1st 23 1st 24 Lindgren, Kravtsov, Jones get it done?

Do NYR sign a veteran LHD instead of entrusting a combo of Robertson/Jones. If Jones is still here?

It's not likely the Rangers get through this offseason signing Miller, Chytil and Laf without needing to move on or both of Lindgren and Goodrow, but here its possible. I'm assuming if they believe something like this can be done, they'll do it because I don't get a sense the org would want to move on from either player. I'd expect NYR to pull all stops to ATTEMPT to get this done, NOT saying this is the roster I'd like to see at all. Just if NYR can find a way, like I have here, to fit Goodrow, Lindgrem, Miller, Laf and Chytil all under cap, they likely will.

What makes a Goodrow trade tricky is the 15-team no trade list which severly prevents trades to most teams that would have the cap to facilitate this. I'm assuming Arizona, Philadelphia, Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver, San Jose, St Louis are all on list. Where do up and coming teams like Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa fit? Does Goodrow see opportunity there to join teams on rise as a leader and role player....much like what has happened for him in NY? Do Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg fall on list because they are Canadian as we so often see despite their talented teams? If they all are, that just reaches 15 teams.
Remaining teams: Lightning, Bruins, Panthers, Devils, Islanders, Pens, Caps, Canes, Avs, Stars, Wild, Preds, Kraken, Knights, Kings.
This is why Lindgren, despite being a key defensive piece, likely becomes the trade culprit if they decide they must move someone as his contract is not burdensome and everyone would be interested in him. If all 31 teams want your player, you probable shouldn't move him. Lindgren should stay.

Interesting to see how it will all play out, but let's just get through this season first

 

[McRanger92]

Trouba is most likely gone for the 2024-2025 season

Detroit Red Wings Captain once Mrs. Trouba finishes her residency

 

[duhmetreE]

Detroit Red Wings Captain once Mrs. Trouba finishes her residency

I honestly think he'll bring back a nice return too.

We shit on him, he deserves it this season, but he's been extremely important piece prior to this season

 

[Machinehead]

WARNING: Long post concering Chytil, Miller, Laf contract and offseason cap implications

First: projecting Chytils totals out to 43 points this season, that would mean an additional 29 points to his current 14.

That would sit him at a career points total of 136 in 327 career games. Signing date at age of 23.

The closest contractual comparison per Cap Friendy is 99.7% with Jeff Carters deal in 2008. Signed at age 23, Jeff Carter of 132 points in 225 games signed a 3 year contract worth 5 million per year, 8.83% of the cap at the time.
If Chytil signs for 3 years, at an 8.83% cap hit, he's come in at a whopping $7.37M. Very unlikely he gets that much via offer sheet, NYR, or if he's traded elsewhere he still gets less I feel.

Netx up is Pierre Luc Dubois signing a 2-year deal worth $5.000M AAV in the most recent contract 2020. First off, Chytils had his bridge, I'd be shocked with anything short of a 3 year pact, and I think Chytils camp will aim for 4+. Nonetheless, lets compare. Dubois, a 3rd overall pick as it should be noted as that often can play into negotiations with threats of offer sheets/prospect status/importance, had 158 points in 234 games. More points, less games. Already some discrepancies in both length and now likely AAV as well. $5M was 6.14% of the cap, so if Chytil signed a 2-year deal now a direct cap translation would mean $5.127M. Not a terrible cap hit for him, but certainly not the term I'd sense NYR or Chytil prefer.

So we move onto Alexander Wennberg at a 93.6% match. Signed at age 22, Wennberg got 6 years and an AAV of $4.9 after 119 points in 217 games. So, say Chytil is in and around 5-7 years, a direct cap comparison might put him at $5.450M (6.53% of cap). This would be a deal I'd be much more open to, and expecting to be honest.

Liking the Wennberg comparable, let's lock Chytil in a $5.450M for 5-7 years doesn't matter for sake of next
seasons cap specifically. Now,assuming the cap goes up by $1M, I'd say the NYR are forced to bridge both Miller and Laf. Laf is likely looking bridge anyways, while NYR normally like to sign core D long term, don't think cap will allow.

Easy guess would be close to Lindgren at 2-3 x $3M. He will have played 217 games at seasons end with a orjected 77 career points. Using Capfriendly again we can find a good example of Darnell Nurse.

Nurse, at 23 in 2018, signed for 2 years at a $3.2M AAV (4.03% of cap). Direct comparison would put Miller at 2 x $3.365. Close enough to LIndgrens contract.

So, Miller now at 2-3 x $3.250 (splitting difference of AAVs ish). No sense contorting over a LT deal for Laf, he won't want it and org can commit big money...yet. Lock him in at a replica of Kakko's deal 2 x 2.1.

We now have a skeleton roster of the following with $6.836M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-xxx
Laf-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-xxx
xxx-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
xxx-Trouba
xxx

Igor
xxx

For exercise purposes, lets assume both Othmann and Cuylle supplement the roster. Cuylle is ready and Othmann would've made the team this season if not for the predicament of Kravtsov and the CHL agreement coinciding in his demotion.

Speaking of Kravtsov, I'm expecting him to not be around come next season. Think thats fair whether it be TDL or offseason based on how season has gone to date.

Best guess is we see Robertson in NHL on D next season. Physically mature, will have completed 2 full AHL seasons at end of this year. Not sure what to make of Jones, would love to see him and Robertson push eachother and compete next season and play based on matchup needs and merits, but get a sense Jones may not be here based on his demotion. If not, its depth addition at similar to his contract so we will pencil him in with xxx as the alternate for him.

Now we have this at $3.416 in Cap:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-xxx
Cuylle-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
xxx

Simple option for 3RW would be Krav if he were still here, but cannot see that being the case as I think he's likely gone in deadline rental deal or traded for pick at draft. Wildcard would be attaching him to Goodrow as an "incentive" of a young player with untapped potential for taking Goodrows contract. With over $3M to fill presumably 3 roster spots, maybe we don't need to pull trigger on moving him though.

Vesey comes back on $900K deal and is ineitably pencilled back onto Kreider and Trochecks RW.
I'd like to see Julien Gauthier back. Not sure that happens, he's requested a trade previously but maybe that sentiment has changes with consistent spot in lineup. Wouldn't mind seeing him with a top 9 opportunity, think his game would mix well with Trocheck and Othmann. Lets bring him back at $900K as well.
Could Lindgren get moved, Robertson take his place and Jones also be on 3rd pair with depth D signing as 7th D?
Could Goodrow be moved free up up to an addition $3.6 in Cap?
Could Kravtsov beat odds and stick around?
Lots of uncertainty. Theres plenty of variation on these final few slots.

My final, best guess:

A 22-man roster of the following with $0.841M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Othmann
Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey
Cuylle-Goodrow-Gauthier
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
Domingue.

or

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-Gauthier
Cuylle-Goodrow-Vesey
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Jones-Trouba
Robertson/xxx

Igor
Domingue

Now, if the escrow miraculously gets paid off, we have an extra 3 million for potentially an upgrade at RW, backup G or defense. If not, its likely the NYR still choose to move one of Lindgren or Goodrow to alleviate some of this cap squeeze as $814K is not a ton of wiggle room for injuries and thats assuming each contract doesn't go slightly over. Not likely. I like to think I used reason and logic and facts here, but even then, negotiations aren't always exact and contracts and salary cap isn't an exact science.

It's not likely the Rangers get through this offseason signing Miller, Chytil and Laf without needing to move on or both of Lindgren and Goodrow, but here its possible. I'm assuming if they believe something like this can be done, they'll do it because I don't get a sense the org would want to move on from either player. I'd expect NYR to pull all stops to ATTEMPT to get this done, NOT saying this is the roster I'd like to see at all. Just if NYR can find a way, like I have here, to fit Goodrow, Lindgrem, Miller, Laf and Chytil all under cap, they likely will.

What makes a Goodrow trade tricky is the 15-team no trade list which severly prevents trades to most teams that would have the cap to facilitate this. I'm assuming Arizona, Philadelphia, Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver, San Jose, St Louis are all on list. Where do up and coming teams like Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa fit? Does Goodrow see opportunity there to join teams on rise as a leader and role player....much like what has happened for him in NY? Do Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg fall on list because they are Canadian as we so often see despite their talented teams? If they all are, that just reaches 15 teams.
Remaining teams: Lightning, Bruins, Panthers, Devils, Islanders, Pens, Caps, Canes, Avs, Stars, Wild, Preds, Kraken, Knights, Kings.
This is why Lindgren, despite being a key defensive piece, likely becomes the trade culprit if they decide they must move someone as his contract is not burdensome and everyone would be interested in him. If all 31 teams want your player, you probable shouldn't move him. Lindgren should stay.

Interesting to see how it will all play out, but let's just get through this season first

 

[JimmyG89]

Also, if the players were smart, they would absolutely pay off the remaining 70M in escrow to get the cap to organically rise this offseason. The majority of players are being held back because their free agency starts now when the league is clearly post COVID and no restrictions.

Of course, the top guys signed already may not like that a larger chunk would be coming from their pay, but if they want the league to continue to grow, 70M among all the players is not that much.

 

[kinger8998]

View attachment 620944

For real. The "short" easy part is the contract comparables. Then when you try to use those to then see the roster holes with all the different variables at play with Goodrow/LIndgren its just too difficult to do without typing an essay.

I suppose thats why Drury just does it and doesn't come here to the HFboards to explain his thought and process behind every move

 

[huerter]

I honestly think he'll bring back a nice return too.

We shit on him, he deserves it this season, but he's been extremely important piece prior to this season

He had a major adjustment period when he got here, he's been horrific this year, but in between he was so good that you just have to trade for him.

 

[kinger8998]

I honestly think he'll bring back a nice return too.

We shit on him, he deserves it this season, but he's been extremely important piece prior to this season

Trouba provided the only ounce of leadership we've seen all season from anyone not names Goodrow. We as a fanbase trash on them both, but without those 2 guys and their willingness to get physical and fight at times, we'd be in a much weaker and more fragile spot than we already are mentally which would .... not be good to say the least.

He was actually quite good for a large portion ast season, and to start this season. Its just when hes not good or playing injured he's so awful it hurts to watch. He's got to be able to manage the highs and lows better so his lows aren't so abysmal that he can't be relied on to consistently be in the top 4 where he belongs. Trouba isn't a 3rd pair defender, but his lows are like hes below replacement level and hes unfortunatelt paid like a borderline #1.

Its a shame we overpayed for him and Goodrow. They're both players you'd love to have on your team (in the right roles, at the right costs) for the difference aspects/styles/leadership/attributes they bring but nearly $12 between both of them is the perfect way to hamstring your team into losing young players

 

[bleedblue94]

Probably about the same. There's a max of how much one player can impact the game.

Also this is Makar's card from last year and he's valued slightly below Fox.

View attachment 620932

Are these weighted at all based on the rest of the team?

 

[Machinehead]

Are these weighted at all based on the rest of the team?

Some of them are.

Obviously, goals, assists, and points aren't.

I don't think GSVA (game score value added) is either. That's a catch-all metric that values "flow" stats like your corsi and xG but also weighs sustained production. So a guy like Panarin would do better there even though his "traditional" analytics are just ok.

The "offense" and "defense" numbers are impact-based, so the team does factor in.

I think it's fair to say that Fox probably carries the Rangers more than Makar carries the Avalanche, although they're both so good that they could switch roles without a hitch. That's why they're pretty close.

 

[Machinehead]

Speaking of GSVA, here are some notes on the Rangers:

-Zibanejad leads Rangers forwards with a 1.3, placing him in the top 30
-Kreider is right behind him with a 1.2
-Vesey has posted a 0.5 which is actually quite decent
-Fox leads all defensemen with a 2.0 and is tied for second in the entire league

Fox is tied with *checks notes* Con-nor MacDavid?

Never heard of him.

 

[duhmetreE]

Probably about the same. There's a max of how much one player can impact the game.

Also this is Makar's card from last year and he's valued slightly below Fox.

View attachment 620932

they are over 20% max contracts, so I have no clue how they come up with these values.

There's no market where any player makes this much.... so it's kinda meh

McDavid is at 21.5M

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

It seems a little crazy to me (and I love the guy) that Lindgren never gets talked about as the odd man out. At some point there is a re-configuring coming on the backend, and Schneider's ascension (albeit even on the other side) has opened up some possibilities back there. I think we could cash in some chips and move some salary when the time comes.

I get the same exact pause from Lindgren that I did Girardi, wouldn't hurt to move on and let Key move up, maybe move Schneider over? There's possibilities.

So remove the heart of the team? The only guy worthy of playoff hockey on this team? Again, Girardi didnt break down till 30. Lindgren is 24.

Lindgren will not get a raise and he is making 3m d per year to be a top 4dman which he is.

Lindgren will not and should not be moved. Period.

 

[McRanger92]

I honestly think he'll bring back a nice return too.

We shit on him, he deserves it this season, but he's been extremely important piece prior to this season

Yeah hes a good player who has taken a lot of shit even before trying to gut out this injury. He is in a very difficult spot being clearly compromised but he is a new Captain and his presence to the team is probably worth the struggles from an "inside the room" angle. I am sure his teammates respect the warrior mentality, as corny as some fans surely think it is.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

 

[Machinehead]

they are over 20% max contracts, so I have no clue how they come up with these values.

There's no market where any player makes this much.... so it's kinda meh

McDavid is at 21.5M

It kind of makes sense to me.

If you could place a dollar value on a win or a goal, which you probably can, the top guys can keep accumulating it past what the cap allows.

I have no problem with paying for stars.

Paying middling players to do what two guys off the heap could do for one-fifth the price is where you get in trouble.

 

[McRanger92]

they are over 20% max contracts, so I have no clue how they come up with these values.

There's no market where any player makes this much.... so it's kinda meh

McDavid is at 21.5M

The Dom L/Athletic fugazi math model is just a complicated way of telling people "Good teams/players are good and bad teams/players are bad". Groundbreaking stuff