Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2022-23): The Puck is Prepared to be Mounted

[Taluss]

View attachment 620953

I think Boeser is going to be a very solid player on his new team. He’s already having a decent year as is.

Unfortunate we don’t have the space for him

 

[McRanger92]

Also, if the players were smart, they would absolutely pay off the remaining 70M in escrow to get the cap to organically rise this offseason. The majority of players are being held back because their free agency starts now when the league is clearly post COVID and no restrictions.

Of course, the top guys signed already may not like that a larger chunk would be coming from their pay, but if they want the league to continue to grow, 70M among all the players is not that much.

Maybe I am too cynical, but "paying off the escrow early" being floated as an option reeks of the NHL pretending there is an alternate path forward that they'll put the Kibosh on if the players show a willingness to do it

 

[Machinehead]

Look at it this way.

It seems like a lot but it's easier to see it in baseball, because baseball has a widely agreed-upon stat called "wins."

One WAR is worth about $5.4m. Aaron Judge gives you about 8.22 WAR per 162 games.

5.4 x 8.22 is 44.38.

Judge just signed for $40m/yr and he's going to be slightly underpaid.

Cream-of-the-crop players are generally underpaid.

 

[NYR Viper]

View attachment 620953

And this is similar to what Garland will be going for more than likely...

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

I think Boeser is going to be a very solid player on his new team. He’s already having a decent year as is.

Unfortunate we don’t have the space for him

And this is similar to what Garland will be going for more than likely...

Is it crazy if I said I would pay that price to rent him or Garland for the rest of the year? After season is over, analyze and decide who to keep?

 

[Taluss]

Is it crazy if I said I would pay that price to rent him or Garland for the rest of the year? After season is over, analyze and decide who to keep?

I mean… I’d do the same. However Boeser is only in year 1/3 of his contract. How are you going to make space for that moving forward?

Maybe it can work? I’m honestly don’t know. I know that we are tight in cap moving forward, idk how bad though. Ig it depends what Laf, Miller & Chytil want to sign for?

 

[redwhiteandblue]

So remove the heart of the team? The only guy worthy of playoff hockey on this team? Again, Girardi didnt break down till 30. Lindgren is 24.

Lindgren will not get a raise and he is making 3m d per year to be a top 4dman which he is.

Lindgren will not and should not be moved. Period.

Well first off, Trouba was labeled the heart and soul of this team being named captain. I know Lindy had consideration too, but it didn't happen for a reason? If he's willing to re-sign for super cheap then cool, but lets not act like 24 year old Lindy doesn't have some serious miles on him. I'm looking at all angles for a pragmatic move. You could probably save $2.5 (without a raise) to perhaps what, $4 million if he's looking for a raise?

I don't think it's such a far cry.

Let me also finish this post with saying I am absolutely not calling for Lindgren's job. I do think it would be a conversation worth having when you're looking at the long term success of the team. I don't see him holding up great past his next contract and maybe even in the middle of it depending on how long it is.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Fluff piece:

 

[kinger8998]

Re: Lindgren

He shouldn't be the cap casualty this summer. That's the only thing I'm certain of. I hope we learned out lesson regarding signing defensemen of that style to long term deals carrying high or heightened AAV's from their previous contracts...Staal...Girardi

In terms of those two, yes their play dropped off, but they still went on to be serviceable and even good NHL defensemen in Tampa and Detroit. Less about how "bad" they really were, more about how overpaid they were relative to the prime of their careers we knew them and loved them to be.

I still loved Girardi through his final days as a Rangers and in the NHL. His willingness to do anything was huge. Bit of a resrugence in 2017 playoffs too before his buyout, remember him being quite good in those playoffs, it was Staal-Holden as our downfall.

Staal not so much love, but he wasn't so much the issue as it was forcing him to continue to play top 4 minutes when he was sutied for top 6 at that point of career and his cap hit being way too high. Its a shame the injuries he suffered, he could've been even better at his peak.

Anyways...Lindgren should absolutely survive this offseason and his current contract...after that, I wouldn't commit long term and big money. I wouldn't commit big money in general even short term. We can let guys walk to FA and use them as own rentals as their deals expire instead of trading him early to get something for him just to trade those assets away later to replace him. Robertson should be able to replace him at that point anyways after starting lower in lineup.

 

[kinger8998]

If he's willing to re-sign for super cheap then cool, but lets not act like 24 year old Lindy doesn't have some serious miles on him. I'm looking at all angles for a pragmatic move. You could probably save $2.5 (without a raise) to perhaps what, $4 million if he's looking for a raise?

I don't think it's such a far cry.

Let me also finish this post with saying I am absolutely not calling for Lindgren's job. I do think it would be a conversation worth having when you're looking at the long term success of the team. I don't see him holding up great past his next contract and maybe even in the middle of it depending on how long it is.

Yes and yes. Lindgren will likely see a higher salary than $3M, and it will likely start with a 4 and be 4-5 years. He will be 26 when signing that deal. Takes him to 31. At face value, thats not horrible.

But his brand, I'd be very weary commiting what would be 16-20+ million on a 4-5 year deal with an AAV starting with 4. I wouldn't do it. Miles add up quick when you're not gentle on your vehicle.

IF Lindgren and his agent don't care for money and he'll sign on the dotted line for $3M or less on a 4-5 year pact...Rangers nod their heads and sign and when they are out of the room high five and jump for joy. Not going to happen though.

 

[B17 Apricots]

WARNING: Long post concering Chytil, Miller, Laf contract and offseason cap implications

First: projecting Chytils totals out to 43 points this season, that would mean an additional 29 points to his current 14.

That would sit him at a career points total of 136 in 327 career games. Signing date at age of 23.

The closest contractual comparison per Cap Friendy is 99.7% with Jeff Carters deal in 2008. Signed at age 23, Jeff Carter of 132 points in 225 games signed a 3 year contract worth 5 million per year, 8.83% of the cap at the time.
If Chytil signs for 3 years, at an 8.83% cap hit, he's come in at a whopping $7.37M. Very unlikely he gets that much via offer sheet, NYR, or if he's traded elsewhere he still gets less I feel.

Netx up is Pierre Luc Dubois signing a 2-year deal worth $5.000M AAV in the most recent contract 2020. First off, Chytils had his bridge, I'd be shocked with anything short of a 3 year pact, and I think Chytils camp will aim for 4+. Nonetheless, lets compare. Dubois, a 3rd overall pick as it should be noted as that often can play into negotiations with threats of offer sheets/prospect status/importance, had 158 points in 234 games. More points, less games. Already some discrepancies in both length and now likely AAV as well. $5M was 6.14% of the cap, so if Chytil signed a 2-year deal now a direct cap translation would mean $5.127M. Not a terrible cap hit for him, but certainly not the term I'd sense NYR or Chytil prefer.

So we move onto Alexander Wennberg at a 93.6% match. Signed at age 22, Wennberg got 6 years and an AAV of $4.9 after 119 points in 217 games. So, say Chytil is in and around 5-7 years, a direct cap comparison might put him at $5.450M (6.53% of cap). This would be a deal I'd be much more open to, and expecting to be honest.

Liking the Wennberg comparable, let's lock Chytil in a $5.450M for 5-7 years doesn't matter for sake of next
seasons cap specifically. Now,assuming the cap goes up by $1M, I'd say the NYR are forced to bridge both Miller and Laf. Laf is likely looking bridge anyways, while NYR normally like to sign core D long term, don't think cap will allow.

Easy guess would be close to Lindgren at 2-3 x $3M. He will have played 217 games at seasons end with a orjected 77 career points. Using Capfriendly again we can find a good example of Darnell Nurse.

Nurse, at 23 in 2018, signed for 2 years at a $3.2M AAV (4.03% of cap). Direct comparison would put Miller at 2 x $3.365. Close enough to LIndgrens contract.

So, Miller now at 2-3 x $3.250 (splitting difference of AAVs ish). No sense contorting over a LT deal for Laf, he won't want it and org can commit big money...yet. Lock him in at a replica of Kakko's deal 2 x 2.1.

We now have a skeleton roster of the following with $6.836M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-xxx
Laf-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-xxx
xxx-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
xxx-Trouba
xxx

Igor
xxx

For exercise purposes, lets assume both Othmann and Cuylle supplement the roster. Cuylle is ready and Othmann would've made the team this season if not for the predicament of Kravtsov and the CHL agreement coinciding in his demotion.

Speaking of Kravtsov, I'm expecting him to not be around come next season. Think thats fair whether it be TDL or offseason based on how season has gone to date. get Hajek on the first kayak down the Hudson after this season.

Best guess is we see Robertson in NHL on D next season. Physically mature, will have completed 2 full AHL seasons at end of this year. Not sure what to make of Jones, would love to see him and Robertson push eachother and compete next season and play based on matchup needs and merits, but get a sense Jones may not be here based on his demotion. If not, its depth addition at similar to his contract so we will pencil him in with xxx as the alternate for him.

Now we have this at $3.416 in Cap:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-xxx
Cuylle-Goodrow-xxx
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
xxx

Simple option for 3RW would be Krav if he were still here, but cannot see that being the case as I think he's likely gone in deadline rental deal or traded for pick at draft. Wildcard would be attaching him to Goodrow as an "incentive" of a young player with untapped potential for taking Goodrows contract. With over $3M to fill presumably 3 roster spots, maybe we don't need to pull trigger on moving him though.

Vesey comes back on $900K deal and is ineitably pencilled back onto Kreider and Trochecks RW.
I'd like to see Julien Gauthier back. Not sure that happens, he's requested a trade previously but maybe that sentiment has changes with consistent spot in lineup. Wouldn't mind seeing him with a top 9 opportunity, think his game would mix well with Trocheck and Othmann. Lets bring him back at $900K as well.

Updated 22-man roster of the following with $0.841M in cap:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Othmann
Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko
Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey
Cuylle-Goodrow-Gauthier
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Robertson-Trouba
Jones/xxx

Igor
Domingue.

or

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Chytil-Lafreniere
Othmann-Trocheck-Gauthier
Cuylle-Goodrow-Vesey
Brodzinski

Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Jones-Trouba
Robertson/xxx

Igor
Domingue

Now, if the escrow miraculously gets paid off, we have an extra 3 million for potentially an upgrade at RW, backup G or defense. If not, its likely the NYR still choose to move one of Lindgren or Goodrow to alleviate some of this cap squeeze as $814K is not a ton of wiggle room for injuries and thats assuming each contract doesn't go slightly over. Not likely. I like to think I used reason and logic and facts here, but even then, negotiations aren't always exact and contracts and salary cap isn't an exact science.

Could NYR move Goodrow to free Cap? Could they move Lindgren and allow Robertson to essentially fill his slot next to Fox as a similar style player? Huge risk as a rookie with Fox in contending years. That would allow Jones with Trouba 3LD and Miller-Schneider to return from last night.
Could the NYR shock everyone and move BOTH Lindgren and Goodrow?

Do NYR see issues on D, utilize extra 1st rounder this year, and use next years knowing they won't have cap to add rental worth 1st rounder to get Chychrun? 1st 23 1st 24 Lindgren, Kravtsov, Jones get it done?

Do NYR sign a veteran LHD instead of entrusting a combo of Robertson/Jones. If Jones is still here?

It's not likely the Rangers get through this offseason signing Miller, Chytil and Laf without needing to move on or both of Lindgren and Goodrow, but here its possible. I'm assuming if they believe something like this can be done, they'll do it because I don't get a sense the org would want to move on from either player. I'd expect NYR to pull all stops to ATTEMPT to get this done, NOT saying this is the roster I'd like to see at all. Just if NYR can find a way, like I have here, to fit Goodrow, Lindgrem, Miller, Laf and Chytil all under cap, they likely will.

What makes a Goodrow trade tricky is the 15-team no trade list which severly prevents trades to most teams that would have the cap to facilitate this. I'm assuming Arizona, Philadelphia, Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, Vancouver, San Jose, St Louis are all on list. Where do up and coming teams like Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa fit? Does Goodrow see opportunity there to join teams on rise as a leader and role player....much like what has happened for him in NY? Do Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg fall on list because they are Canadian as we so often see despite their talented teams? If they all are, that just reaches 15 teams.
Remaining teams: Lightning, Bruins, Panthers, Devils, Islanders, Pens, Caps, Canes, Avs, Stars, Wild, Preds, Kraken, Knights, Kings.
This is why Lindgren, despite being a key defensive piece, likely becomes the trade culprit if they decide they must move someone as his contract is not burdensome and everyone would be interested in him. If all 31 teams want your player, you probable shouldn't move him. Lindgren should stay.

Interesting to see how it will all play out, but let's just get through this season first

It'll be interesting to see if Drury goes that route and re-signs one of them long term but all of this is going off the idea that you need to pigeonhole yourself into making a long deal like that. Sure, it'd be nice to if the numbers work. I don't get the cap friendly comparables of Carter and Dubois though because their numbers are a lot different but overall I think a long term Chytil extension does look something like that. But if that comes at the expense of trading away other guys when there's an option to just bridge them for cheaper it doesn't really add up. Strome had 59 points in 70 games playing with Panarin in 19-20, Gorton turned around and signed him for 2 years at 4.5mil. I think something like that deal is much more likely

 

[kinger8998]

It'll be interesting to see if Drury goes that route and re-signs one of them long term but all of this is going off the idea that you need to pigeonhole yourself into making a long deal like that. Sure, it'd be nice to if the numbers work. I don't get the cap friendly comparables of Carter and Dubois though because their numbers are a lot different but overall I think a long term Chytil extension does look something like that. But if that comes at the expense of trading away other guys when there's an option to just bridge them for cheaper it doesn't really add up. Strome had 59 points in 70 games playing with Panarin in 19-20, Gorton turned around and signed him for 2 years at 4.5mil. I think something like that deal is much more likely

Stromes situation is alot different than Chytils too, that's not a real good comparison:

Strome: trying to save his career following trade to Edmonton and subsequent burnout. Only did it for 1 year, hence no long term commitment to ensure it wasn't fluke. He continued to perform, got his long term deal in Anaheim. The 4.5 M bridge was his 4th NHL contract.
Chyti:: 23, going onto 3rd NHL contract. Bridged, continued to progress to earn raise for long term pact. If he stagnated or didn't improve or tailed off, he'd be looking at another bridge. But his flashes last season followed by the playoffs and now the way hes playing this season, he's earned the term and raise. The double bridge is if the player doesn't progress as expected during the 1st bridge. Chytil has. He'll likely get term and $, hopefully we're smart enough to make that contract be with us

Chytils had his bridge contract. He's due for either a 3-4 year deal in the 4's, or you can add an extra 1-1.5M Mper season and get an extra 2-3 years. I'd rather had Chytil at $5.45M for 7 than at $4M for 3, even if that means filling the fringes with young on ELC's or cheap veterans.

Its clear with the emerging core Miller, Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Schneider and the existing core Panarin, Zib, Kreids, Trocheck, Trouba, Fox, Shesterkin, the big dogs will have to do the heavy lifting. No sense saving cap by bridging Chytil to pay $1.5 milllion for a small upgrade on 4th line when you can have a servicable guy for 900K. Big dogs gotta eat for us with $$$ previously invested and money to invest in upcoming 3/4 years.

Yes, its certain all the contracts won't match exactly what I've come up with, but thats the gameplan if you're going to return the same roster without losing Goodrow/LIndgren. We definitely could shed about $3M so they become the candidates as we need to keep youth and have no ability to move vets until Kreider July 1 2024 and Trouba 2024-2025. Goodrow presents a challenge due to cpa only going up 1M and 15 team no trade. Lindgren no restrictions, but definitely has more value to us than Goodrow does and should not be first choice to go. That is why I think Rangers may try to get everyone in and keep them both until summer 2024/season 2024 when Kreider and/or Trouba being moved could free up anywhere from 6.5-14.5M.

 

[Machinehead]

New TV deal tho!!!

The f***ing thing is a scam

 

[egelband]

The NHL should be embarrassed by this. Look at the money being thrown around in every other sport, and this one is still blaming poor finances on the pandemic. Bettman is just a fixer for cheap owners

This. It’s borderline outrageous. Whether this is due to a terrible CBA or simply cooking the books, it’s ridiculous that this business is still claiming poverty going on three years later. Not to mention uniform ads, embracing gambling, and programmable board ads. And didn’t they get a new tv deal a couple years ago?
Where is the players association on this?
The Mets third string catcher would be a top five paid player in the NHL. Bizarro world stuff.

 

[MrAlmost]

This. It’s borderline outrageous. Whether this is due to a terrible CBA or simply cooking the books, it’s ridiculous that this business is still claiming poverty going on three years later. Not to mention uniform ads, embracing gambling, and programmable board ads. And didn’t they get a new tv deal a couple years ago?
Where is the players association on this?
The Mets third string catcher would be a top five paid player in the NHL. Bizarro world stuff.

Yeah, I smell bullshit big time.

 

[bleedblue94]

Some of them are.

Obviously, goals, assists, and points aren't.

I don't think GSVA (game score value added) is either. That's a catch-all metric that values "flow" stats like your corsi and xG but also weighs sustained production. So a guy like Panarin would do better there even though his "traditional" analytics are just ok.

The "offense" and "defense" numbers are impact-based, so the team does factor in.

I think it's fair to say that Fox probably carries the Rangers more than Makar carries the Avalanche, although they're both so good that they could switch roles without a hitch. That's why they're pretty close.

Thanks for the perspective. I agree with what you said about the two defensemen as well, I think they offer different packages both are extremely effective. I think Fox is of a higher IQ and makar has a sensational package of talents that he placed to. I think makar has more pure talent than fox does, for Fox just seems to read the game with an incredible IQ. It's actually amazing to me how effective fox is without necessarily having elite skating or an elite shot. The way he reads the game is just incredible.

 

[egelband]

And we rip more of the heart out of this roster and continue to weaken the bottom 6. Goodrow is not the best option to make this work. There will be something bigger if it comes to it but I still think the pa and league negotiate this to a soft landing.

I do think that these numbers are probably posturing at this point and they come to some reasonable compromise. But still, it’s ridiculous that they can even say ‘flat cap’ with a straight face still.

 

[bleedblue94]

I do think that these numbers are probably posturing at this point and they come to some reasonable compromise. But still, it’s ridiculous that they can even say ‘flat cap’ with a straight face still.

I just really find it hard to believe that they won't find a compromise to create a soft landing. The league is just so stubborn and good in negotiations that they're going to use it as leverage for something. Even if it's something mundane, most people know that in a negotiation environment you never give up something for free even if it'll help you. You always hold out to see if the other side wants it more than you do and then you leverage that fact

 

[duhmetreE]

New TV deal tho!!!

The f***ing thing is a scam

This is just proper business.

You can't tell people it's going up $4M unless it's 100%.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on it going up closer to $4M than $1M. Over 6B in revenue. Escrow paid off.

TV money doesn't really matter until debts are paid off

 

[smoneil]

It's going to need to be a strategic offseason. If the cap only goes up 1m, the team has zero cap to spare, not many ways to acquire more cap, and three potential RFA offer sheet candidates.

If Chytil continues his great play, with the premium on centers, and he sees himself blocked here long term (from regular PP time in particular) by Zib and Trocheck, I could see him looking for a better spot and another team banking on a big jump in production if they give him PP1 time and 5 more minutes per game.

K'AM has the team by the balls and HAS to know it. Other than Lindy, for whom injury is always a concern, the team has very little on the left side of the D. They clearly don't trust Jones. Hajek is barely clinging to the 6th D spot. Robertson has shown promise, but hasn't even has a cup of coffee yet. The team can't afford to lose Miller, and he can play that card if they try to squeeze him.

Finally you have Laf. His numbers (or lack thereof) make him an ideal candidate for a bridge, but his situation makes that a risky move. The optics of losing your first ever 1st overall pick this early would be embarrassing to the point that even Dolan would probably notice/react. There could be teams willing to roll the dice on an offer sheet in the hopes that, with the minutes and usage a 1st overall should get to develop, Laf will reach more of his potential. And then there's always Montreal.

Were I Chris Drury, I wouldn't let any of those three dangle in the wind. He needs to get them under contract as soon as possible. And if it's apparent that he won't have the cap to keep all of them, he needs to make his choices and move the odd man out for a young, top six RW.

 

[nsvoyageurs]

This. It’s borderline outrageous. Whether this is due to a terrible CBA or simply cooking the books, it’s ridiculous that this business is still claiming poverty going on three years later. Not to mention uniform ads, embracing gambling, and programmable board ads. And didn’t they get a new tv deal a couple years ago?
Where is the players association on this?
The Mets third string catcher would be a top five paid player in the NHL. Bizarro world stuff.

The NHLPA is likely busy looking for a new Executive Director. Who is negotiating these things for them these days?

 

[NYR Viper]

Lets look at potential vet LD's who could be available this off-season:


Klefbom (will he ever be healthy? If yes, he was a good player)
Gardiner (signed to a lucrative deal and has hardly played...)
Soucy (he would be perfect, but too expensive probably)
Jensen
De Haan
Pysyk
Beaulieu
Edler

I keep wondering if San Jose will bite the bullet and finally buy out Vlasic. He would be kind of ideal...

I’d probably lean towards pursuing someone like Jensen and then try to pursuade Beaulieu to come as well.

 

[RangersFan1994]

It's going to need to be a strategic offseason. If the cap only goes up 1m, the team has zero cap to spare, not many ways to acquire more cap, and three potential RFA offer sheet candidates.

If Chytil continues his great play, with the premium on centers, and he sees himself blocked here long term (from regular PP time in particular) by Zib and Trocheck, I could see him looking for a better spot and another team banking on a big jump in production if they give him PP1 time and 5 more minutes per game.

K'AM has the team by the balls and HAS to know it. Other than Lindy, for whom injury is always a concern, the team has very little on the left side of the D. They clearly don't trust Jones. Hajek is barely clinging to the 6th D spot. Robertson has shown promise, but hasn't even has a cup of coffee yet. The team can't afford to lose Miller, and he can play that card if they try to squeeze him.

Finally you have Laf. His numbers (or lack thereof) make him an ideal candidate for a bridge, but his situation makes that a risky move. The optics of losing your first ever 1st overall pick this early would be embarrassing to the point that even Dolan would probably notice/react. There could be teams willing to roll the dice on an offer sheet in the hopes that, with the minutes and usage a 1st overall should get to develop, Laf will reach more of his potential. And then there's always Montreal.

Were I Chris Drury, I wouldn't let any of those three dangle in the wind. He needs to get them under contract as soon as possible. And if it's apparent that he won't have the cap to keep all of them, he needs to make his choices and move the odd man out for a young, top six RW.

I hope the Rangers go after Gavrikov from the Jackets. UFA left side defensive dman with size and grit that can skate. one of the most underrated dman in the league. I can see a team offering a 2ed maybe even a late 1st for him. He would be a good pickup at the deadline. He would be my top target for dman.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Lets look at potential vet LD's who could be available this off-season:


Klefbom (will he ever be healthy? If yes, he was a good player)
Gardiner (signed to a lucrative deal and has hardly played...)
Soucy (he would be perfect, but too expensive probably)
Jensen
De Haan
Pysyk
Beaulieu
Edler

I keep wondering if San Jose will bite the bullet and finally buy out Vlasic. He would be kind of ideal...

I’d probably lean towards pursuing someone like Jensen and then try to pursuade Beaulieu to come as well.

ehh. Rather go for under the radar types like Vladimir Gavrikov and or Nikko Mikkola who I both want at the deadline. Jackets and Blues will get calls for them and rightfully so.

 

[RangersFan1994]

I would not mind this defensive depth at the deadline. Could it be possible.

Lindgren Fox
Miller Trouba
Gavrikov (2.8) Schneider
Mikkola (1.9)


Rangers 2ed for Mikkola
Rangers 1 (Stars) for Gavrikov (UFA)
Rangers Blais and Gauthier to Coyotes for 4th and 4th in 24 and 25 draft

Rangers would improve their defense with this move. I rather them go for defense at the deadline