Speculation: Roster Building Thread DCLXXV: Marc Staal... Come on Down!!!

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How fast will the trade announcements start pouring in? Not just for the rangers but other teams as well. Is tomorrow too early?

I think so. I think they'd wait, since the Finals are going to be at the front of most people's minds for a day or so. I'd say we'd probably hear stuff trickling in by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Then again, I have been wrong before...so who knows. Maybe news will strike tomorrow. Clauses for expansion need to be waived by 5pm EST tomorrow, so that could get gears in motion.
 
How fast will the trade announcements start pouring in? Not just for the rangers but other teams as well. Is tomorrow too early?

I don't think so. I mean they could've announced it during the SCF but chose not to because of respect for the Finals. Now that it's over, open the floodgates!



Plus with submission of rosters due in a week, teams need to start preparing now and that includes trading potentially exposed players.
 
We're not going to get blue balled just so a fan base can enjoy their victory without NHL trade news "distracting" them from whatever.
 
Assistants are honestly just glorified actual here to assist you assistants with a lot of coaching staffs. It's hard to evaluate an assistant coach's abilities as a potential head coach fairly. We can only judge them for the role they're given which we can only speculate on and infer from the dynamic of the coaching staff. Whether we wanted Torts gone or not and whether we hated Sullivan as the assistant coach or not is close to irrelevant on whether or not firing him was the right choice.
 
Gorton is gonna have to be a magician to clean up sathers mess. i still have faith in gorton.
 
I remember seeing a tweet earlier today that said we aren't meeting the required rules for the expansion draft right now? And if so, we might be seeing some moves in the next 12-24 hours?
 
I remember seeing a tweet earlier today that said we aren't meeting the required rules for the expansion draft right now? And if so, we might be seeing some moves in the next 12-24 hours?

It's very likely. Most teams were free to announce re-signing their players during the cup final and there's been nothing official or unofficial about re-signing one of OL, JF, or MP.
 
This is gross to see


BTW, excellent job firing Torts and Sullivan and hiring AV. Well done, Sather. Another one of your brilliant moves...

Sullivan was awful here, but sure... Let's blame Sather while every single fan wanted Sullivan gone. As if he is the biggest reason the Penguins have won 2 Cups... Come on
 
I don't really see a match with Preds for Stepan, if they trade for Stepan that means they either send one of their D (Ellis i presume) to us or they lose Arvidsson or Neal in the ED. Actually, maybe they're OK exposing Neal so could work without Ellis too, but what other pieces do we want if not Ellis?

I don't see them trading Ellis but if they're game with that then i'm all for it, something around Järnkrok+Ellis for Stepan as a base works for me.
Maybe Wilson/Smith instead of Järnkrok if Gorton/AV thinks either can play C.

If it's without Ellis then what? I'm drawing a blank.
 
The Sullivan coaching change COMPLETELY turned Pittsburgh around. After they canned Johnston they looked like a brand new team.

Yes, and do you know what else changed? They got a bunch of new players in Hagelin, Kessel, Murray, Guentzel, Sheary, Bonino... Their team clicked and Sullivan deserves credit but to claim Sather made a mistake to let him go, is just wrong. Hindsight is 20/20, sure but Sullivan wouldn't have won anything here
 
This isn't the situation, or at least isn't as written. If you meant to say players get 50% of total HRR, regardless of what HRR is, then yes, that's true. But their actual take home pay for a season is directly affected by the extra ceiling provided by a higher cap limit.

For example, if a player has a salary of a 1 million dollars, in the handful of years where HRR exceeded estimates (happened a few times), they took home 2-4% more. But recently, with the escalator continuing to be used but revenue not growing to keep pace, the NHLPA has seen escrow mechanism remove 12%+ of their yearly salary.

So in reading your reply, I'm unsure of which misconception you were trying to point out.

The misconception was that the players would make less if they exercise the escalator. They wouldn't. They'd make the same over the course of the year, because salary costs are pegged at 50%. They might make less per paycheck, if escrow increases, but they'll still have the same income at the end, escrow or no. They could end up making less than the contract they signed and they could end up making more. That's the CBA they signed.

Saying they'd make less is like saying a teacher makes less when they opt for a 12 month salary instead of a 10 month salary.
 
I don't really see a match with Preds for Stepan, if they trade for Stepan that means they either send one of their D (Ellis i presume) to us or they lose Arvidsson or Neal in the ED. Actually, maybe they're OK exposing Neal so could work without Ellis too, but what other pieces do we want if not Ellis?

I don't see them trading Ellis but if they're game with that then i'm all for it, something around Järnkrok+Ellis for Stepan as a base works for me.
Maybe Wilson/Smith instead of Järnkrok if Gorton/AV thinks either can play C.

If it's without Ellis then what? I'm drawing a blank.

Right now they're exposing a valuable forward anyway. Likely Neal. If they trade a D for an F, they can protect 2 more Fs. Right now, Preds fans are thinking they'll protect 8 skaters to keep their top 4 intact. The 4 forwards they'd protect are Arvidsson, Johansen, Forsberg and probably Jarnkrok, who is an all-purpose player signed to a great contract. Trading a D allows them to protect Neal and one of Wilson or Smith as well.
 
Right now they're exposing a valuable forward anyway. Likely Neal. If they trade a D for an F, they can protect 2 more Fs. Right now, Preds fans are thinking they'll protect 8 skaters to keep their top 4 intact. The 4 forwards they'd protect are Arvidsson, Johansen, Forsberg and probably Jarnkrok, who is an all-purpose player signed to a great contract. Trading a D allows them to protect Neal and one of Wilson or Smith as well.

It's a good scenario, but it only works for us if we get rid of one of our NMC D-men. Off-season starts today. We will see
 
It's a good scenario, but it only works for us if we get rid of one of our NMC D-men. Off-season starts today. We will see

I'm thinking that the Preds are still going to go with 8. Smith and Wilson are replaceable. Neal is getting older, but Fiala is still around plus they have Kamenev on his way.
 
I think in the end they'll expose Järnkrok over Neal, but i think the smart play is to expose Neal, he's clearly on the down swing and replaceable.
 
The misconception was that the players would make less if they exercise the escalator. They wouldn't. They'd make the same over the course of the year, because salary costs are pegged at 50%. They might make less per paycheck, if escrow increases, but they'll still have the same income at the end, escrow or no. They could end up making less than the contract they signed and they could end up making more. That's the CBA they signed.

Saying they'd make less is like saying a teacher makes less when they opt for a 12 month salary instead of a 10 month salary.

Thank you for clarifying your point, but it is still incorrect.

By utilizing the escalator, the players do have the risk of making less money (although this is not guaranteed). When the cap is set artificially higher, (ex. 77M instead of 75M), if more teams spend to the cap, and HRR stays relatively flat or is less than the the escalator, players while still 50%, their take home income is less.

For a simple example, let's show this with numbers:

Sample League w/ 5 Teams

No Escalator applied, flat HRR growth:
Cap: 20M
Total Player Salaries (all teams spend to cap): 100M
HRR (League Revenue): 200M
Player X Salary: 1M

5% Escalator applied, flat HRR growth:
Cap: 21M
Total Player Salaries (all teams spend to cap): 105M
HRR (League Revenue): 200M
Player X Salary after escrow: 950k (50K less)

In the both examples, the player is entitled to his share of the 100M (50% of HRR), but in example 2, there are 105M in players salaries to go around, not 100M. So per your point, they do not have the same income at the end. Escrow is taken during the season, but only some, and not all of it is given back.

Escrow chart from the last 8 years:
n9H9TGV.png
 
You realize that, without an escalator, the amount the player would get refunded from his escrow contribution would just be higher, right?

Let me put it this way. If there are exactly 100 players in the 5 team league you proposed, that means that the average contract is $1M in your first example. In your second example the average contract is $1.05M. After all HRR calculations are done, in the first example, the players' average income matches the contracts: $1M. In the second example, the average income is lower than the average contract. $1M.

In both examples, the average income for the players is the same, escalator or not. They don't make less money than they would have without the escalator. They make exactly the same amount of money they would have without the escalator.
 
You realize that, without an escalator, the amount the player would get refunded from his escrow contribution would just be higher, right?

Let me put it this way. If there are exactly 100 players in the 5 team league you proposed, that means that the average contract is $1M in your first example. In your second example the average contract is $1.05M. After all HRR calculations are done, in the first example, the players' average income matches the contracts: $1M. In the second example, the average income is lower than the average contract. $1M.

In both examples, the average income for the players is the same, escalator or not. They don't make less money than they would have without the escalator. They make exactly the same amount of money they would have without the escalator.

No, it doesn't work that way. Again, we are using an oversimplified example, and the amount of contracts isn't fixed (there is a balance of players with existing contracts and players seeking new contracts).

The higher cap allows owners to spend more on players salaries in total. That means if you have an existing contract, your share of the available 50% of HRR gets diluted. So in the example provided, in Scenario 1 you could have 100 contracts at 1M. In Scenario 2, one player goes to free agency (the other 99 still have a 1M contracct), and is offered 6M (because the cap space now exists with the escalator). Every player with a 1M salary now makes 950k because of the available capspace to give that one lucky player 6M. If no escalator was applied, the available capspace would of only been 1M so the player couldn't of been offered 6M.

For example, Shea Weber lost 1.8M in salary in 2014-15. But if in the previous offseason, owners spent no new money on players, he would of earned closer to his contract salary.

In short, higher cap allows owners to spend more (they don't necessary have to, but owners always do). Spending more by clubs dilutes cut of 50% for players with existing contracts (albeit, while giving better options for UFA/RFAs by the available capspace).

You realize that, without an escalator, the amount the player would get refunded from his escrow contribution would just be higher, right?

Let me put it this way. If there are exactly 100 players in the 5 team league you proposed, that means that the average contract is $1M in your first example. In your second example the average contract is $1.05M. After all HRR calculations are done, in the first example, the players' average income matches the contracts: $1M. In the second example, the average income is lower than the average contract. $1M.

In both examples, the average income for the players is the same, escalator or not. They don't make less money than they would have without the escalator. They make exactly the same amount of money they would have without the escalator.

That statement isn't completely untrue, but it counts on the owners not spending more on player salaries with the new available capspace. If HRR doesn't grow (or doesn't grow larger than the escalator) and spending is utilized to the new cap, your statement is not true.
 
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