Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20 Part XXV

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

31 Thoughts: Maple Leafs' fortunes will decide deadline approach - Sportsnet.ca

1. Kreider for 6m per for 6 years or 6.5m per for 5 years and I re-sign him. I legitimately believe his unique skill set and presence as a veteran could be very important going forward for the kids. We always hear about how he sets such a great example. Plus I just love the player and what he brings. If they can get him 6x6 I think you have to sign him.

2. I might be in the minority on this but I haven't been as enamored with Georgiev as everyone else and I think the move is the drive the price up for him now and move him. He's had his "on" nights where he looks unbeatable but for every one of those there are 2 nights where he looks bad and another where he's horrible. Multiple games this season of 3+ goals against while facing shot counts in the teens. I think he definitely has an NHL future but I don't think he's a potential star or franchise player like I see some posting online. If we had no other goalies in the pipeline I'd maybe feel differently, but Igor is here already and I believe he actually is a future star. Plus we have Wall, Huska and Lindbolm plus whoever else they pick off the UFA heap and Allaire works with. We're more stacked at goalie than anywhere else.

This is why I'm of the opinion of acting on moving him now instead of kicking it down the road. I believe his ceiling to be good backup or 1b platoon guy. I think pushing this down the road too long could result in Gorton overplaying his hand instead of maximizing the asset. I think best case scenario here is moving him for a good return and now we have whatever we get in exchange for him plus Igor as our starter going forward and the other goalie in the pipeline for when Hank retires.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

He's a top 5 scoring defenseman in the league pacing for 60 points. How is that not big piece worthy?

I don't see any GM handing over a top player for someone who hasn't produced consistently for a full season. There is no guarantee he will continue at his current pace.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

All three of those components together, for some of the returns we're batting around.

If Skjei goes, you're probably looking at an established player, not Glass.

Thanks, yeah, I wouldn't think Skjei would be moved for a prospect.

What about DeAngelo though, would he have more value there? Just spitballing. I wonder if Vegas would be willing to part with Glass with them being a win now team or if he's off limits.

 

[bobbop]

How does that piece of information benefit Kreider though?

If that contract price point came from Kreider's camp, why would they need to leak that to Freidman. Take it to the Rangers and tell them he really wants to stay, and if they offered this, he would accept

That's not how you negotiate. You get the conversation started, gain mutual interest and then hammer out the details. This is a signal to the Rangers. They can choose to reject it or accept it and move towards a deal.

Players don't make take it or leave it offers.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Maybe the Rangers offered less, and he said that he'd re-sign for that and figures that maybe the public would say "that's a good deal to get Kreider on, bring him back!"

Maybe but even then I don't know how much benefit there is doing that

I don't want Kreider signed because of the long term cap implications, but he could easily get what Freidman floated there.

If Gorton is offering less like you theorize, he's not actually serious about keeping Kreider.

 

[Edge]

Thanks, yeah, I wouldn't think Skjei would be moved for a prospect.

What about DeAngelo though, would he have more value there? Just spitballing. I wonder if Vegas would be willing to part with Glass with them being a win now team or if he's off limits.

Maybe as part of a package, but I don't see the Rangers moving him for a prospect as the main component either.

I think if ADA is traded (and I lean heavily toward him not being moved), I think the Rangers are looking for a similarly aged impact player at another position or a combination of players that shore up other areas. Obviously, depending on what we're talking about, the deal has a high probability of being expanded to include other components on the Rangers end as well.

But whether it's Buch, or Skjei, or ADA, or Georgiev, I think the first preference is, and will remain, obtaining actual NHL players.

I think prospects/picks are the currency for expiring contracts and rentals, but anyone under term and controllable will be attached to other NHL players.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I wouldn't want to see Tony D go, unless his contract demands are unreasonable.

Would suck to lose him. On the upside his obsessed fans are generally insufferable. So the anger there would be fun to watch.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

That's not how you negotiate. You get the conversation started, gain mutual interest and then hammer out the details. This is a signal to the Rangers. They can choose to reject it or accept it and move towards a deal.

Players don't make take it or leave it offers.

That makes sense

I get the sense Gorton would be fine keeping Kreider, but only on Gorton's terms. And really any deviation from those terms, he's comfortable walking away

 

[bobbop]

@Edge Re: Tony...Do you worry at all about the Eric Gustafsson example? Huge breakout year last year. They could have moved him last summer but they didn't. Hawks held on and now he is having an OK season in his walk year.

Is this Tony now and forever or a one off?

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

I think now is the right time to work something out with the Leafs for Georgiev, the trouble is they’re just one team and they don’t necessarily need to be in love with him. Who else is in the market, San Jose?

 

[Edge]

I'm really sure going from $7m x 7 or even $7m x 6 to $6.75m x 6 is going to move the needle to much.

I'm going to speculate that either the dollars have to come down, or the years have have to come down --- and I think there might be more of an interest on the former.

6x6? I think, they probably think very long and hard about it. Still not sure they go for it, but I definitely think it impacts the odds.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

For me personally on Kreider, I'd do a max of 5 years at 6 million a year. If he signs for that, I'd probably grit my teeth a bit but be fine with it.

With the defense, Trouba and Fox aren't going anywhere if I'm running the team. I keep Tony as well, but I can understand having to move him if it comes down to it.

As I've mentioned a couple times, I do think there's a chance this ends up where DeAngelo signs a two year bridge this summer, and then depending on other factors (i.e Keane and Lundkvist, the price to sign him) the team can either make the decision to move him or sign him long term. There's really not a ton of downside with this idea. The only real downside is it'll cost more to sign Tony in two years, but so be it.

Also I agree, I think they should move Georgiev at the deadline.

 

[RGY]

What are the chances Kreider gets traded but still entertains signing a deal back? 5 x 6.75 like Friedman just wrote?

5 years fits the Rangers window and some of their younger players 2nd contracts, but not their 3rd which is key.

All for it, but like the money to be at $6-$6.5 range.

 

[Edge]

@Edge Re: Tony...Do you worry at all about the Eric Gustafsson example? Huge breakout year last year. They could have moved him last summer but they didn't. Hawks held on and now he is having an OK season in his walk year.

Is this Tony now and forever or a one off?

I think I'd be more concerned if this wasn't a carry over and part of continued progress.

I saw a lot of growth from 2017-18 to 2018-19. And then, within the 2018-2019 season, I saw a lot of growth. That's continued this year.

Everyone is focusing on this season, but the truth is that ADA has been producing at a 55-60 point pace for about a year now --- even before the show me contract. So you're now eclipsing the 82 game same size and expanding upon it. I get more worried when you have a player for whom the lights suddenly "turn on." But I don't see that here. Gustafsson went from 30 point paces, broken up over two partial seasons, to a 60 point season. At age 26 no less.

In actuality, ADA's pace this season, while an improvement over the second half of last season, really isn't a monster climb. It's the difference between a 50 point pace and a 60 point pace --- and he's doing it several years younger than Gustafsson. There's a steady progress there, and a track record for hitting some pretty rare levels going back to his days in the OHL. Personally, that's a risk I am willing to take because of the sample size.

 

[RGY]

The meltdown that will occur should the Rangers re-sign Kreider will reach epic proportions. Could be a team friendly deal and you will still have some crying their eyes out that Kreider was not traded/monetized for futures.

 

[Edge]

For me personally on Kreider, I'd do a max of 5 years at 6 million a year. If he signs for that, I'd probably grit my teeth a bit but be fine with it.

With the defense, Trouba and Fox aren't going anywhere if I'm running the team. I keep Tony as well, but I can understand having to move him if it comes down to it.

As I've mentioned a couple times, I do think there's a chance this ends up where DeAngelo signs a two year bridge this summer, and then depending on other factors (i.e Keane and Lundkvist, the price to sign him) the team can either make the decision to move him or sign him long term. There's really not a ton of downside with this idea. The only real downside is it'll cost more to sign Tony in two years, but so be it.

I think if the Rangers can get Kreider for $6 m at 5 years, they'll do it.

But we're talking about a discount that amounts to a million dollars a year, and probably as much as $19 million over the course of the contact. If Kreider agree to that deal, he doesn't love the Rangers, he ADORES them.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

For me personally on Kreider, I'd do a max of 5 years at 6 million a year. If he signs for that, I'd probably grit my teeth a bit but be fine with it.

With the defense, Trouba and Fox aren't going anywhere if I'm running the team. I keep Tony as well, but I can understand having to move him if it comes down to it.

As I've mentioned a couple times, I do think there's a chance this ends up where DeAngelo signs a two year bridge this summer, and then depending on other factors (i.e Keane and Lundkvist, the price to sign him) the team can either make the decision to move him or sign him long term. There's really not a ton of downside with this idea. The only real downside is it'll cost more to sign Tony in two years, but so be it.

Also I agree, I think they should move Georgiev at the deadline.

That would be nice if DeAngelo did that but he kinda had to take what he got this year, I'm doubtful he is looking to take a discount deal from us and he would be prime pickings for an offer sheet.

 

[gravey9]

I'm really sure going from $7m x 7 or even $7m x 6 to $6.75m x 6 is going to move the needle to much.

I'm going to speculate that either the dollars have to come down, or the years have have to come down --- and I think there might be more of an interest on the former.

6x6? I think, they probably think very long and hard about it. Still not sure they go for it, but I definitely think it impacts the odds.

If I'm Kreider, I want 7 years. I'd be willing to go as low as 6m for that. If it was for 6 years, then 7m or just a shade under. If the open market gets him 7x7 -- i can't see him going below 40m total to stay home. I think asking him to give up more than that is asking too much. I don't think he goes 6x6. That's giving up over 11 million to stay a Ranger.

The real sticking point will be a NMC. If you ask CK to take a significant discount it will likely mean you have to give him a full NMC.

So, its likely 6 x 6.825 with a full NMC. Takes him to 35. Likely Buch gets moved at the draft.

 

[leetch99]

@Edge Re: Tony...Do you worry at all about the Eric Gustafsson example? Huge breakout year last year. They could have moved him last summer but they didn't. Hawks held on and now he is having an OK season in his walk year.

Is this Tony now and forever or a one off?

I think the only thing that will hamper Tony down the road is a new coach and possible system that stifles his offense and chance taking ...outside of that...he simply has too much talent to fall off at this point in his career . If anything he will get better with a new partner . Rangers may as well start looking for deals where the two extra RHS Dmen are included in as sweeteners to land us a Lefty and or some guys to fill out our bottom 6 forwards . It's a nice problem having the talent on the right side...use that to our advantage in the next couple of seasons .

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I think if the Rangers can get Kreider for $6 m at 5 years, they'll do it.

But we're talking about a discount that amounts to a million dollars a year, and probably as much as $19 million over the course of the contact. If Kreider agree to that deal, he doesn't love the Rangers, he ADORES them.

Oh if I was him, I'd be hard pressed to accept that. I basically alluded to it, I'd keep him but only on my terms.

He could very easily get 40-49 million dollar deal in the summer. No way would I'd be willing to give up close to 20 million to stay if I was in his spot

 

[Edge]

If I'm Kreider, I want 7 years. I'd be willing to go as low as 6m for that. If it was for 6 years, then 7m or just a shade under. If the open market gets him 7x7 -- i can't see him going below 40m total to stay home. I think asking him to give up more than that is asking too much. I don't think he goes 6x6. That's giving up over 11 million to stay a Ranger.

The real sticking point will be a NMC. If you ask CK to take a significant discount it will likely come mean you have to give him a full NMC.

So, its likely 6 x 6.825 with a full NMC. Takes him to 35. Likely Buch gets moved at the draft.

And my personal feelings aside, I just don't know if I see the Rangers going to $6.85 million. I think they would've done that already if the difference was one season and only $150,000 per year.

I feel like we're venturing into the "so you're saying there's a chance" phase of this breakup, and I'm not sure I really see the odds changing.

 

[RangerLifer]

I'm looking back at these posts. What did Elliot Friedman say about Kreider?

 

[Edge]

Oh if I was him, I'd be hard pressed to accept that. I basically alluded to it, I'd keep him but only on my terms.

He could very easily get 40-49 million dollar deal in the summer. No way would I'd be willing to give up close to 20 million to stay if I was in his spot

And I agree. But I think that's the gulf we're talking about between keeping him or not. I think we're talking years and multi millions of dollars. It's not a small gap, or one that the Rangers will suddenly one day wake up and say, "You know what? Sure. Let's go 7 x 7, or 6.85 x 6.

 

[leetch99]

I'm really sure going from $7m x 7 or even $7m x 6 to $6.75m x 6 is going to move the needle to much.

I'm going to speculate that either the dollars have to come down, or the years have have to come down --- and I think there might be more of an interest on the former.

6x6? I think, they probably think very long and hard about it. Still not sure they go for it, but I definitely think it impacts the odds.

Likely would depend on who they can move to make those added dollars work and or the return for them and any new cap added because of them...so many variables making a signing like Kreider especially in a tight cap situation and the anchor contract that the team still has with the King .

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

That would be nice if DeAngelo did that but he kinda had to take what he got this year, I'm doubtful he is looking to take a discount deal from us and he would be prime pickings for an offer sheet.

Not sure what you mean? Never mentioned anything about him taking a discount.

If anything, what I suggested lines up more with what I'd assume he's looking for based on what we know about him.

I think he could very easily get a two year bridge for 4-5 million a year. And if he continues to play as he has, he could be in line for 7-8 million+ in two years

And offersheets I'm not worried about. At worst if someone offersheets him, the team can match

 

[Edge]

Likely would depend on who they can move to make those added dollars work and or the return for them and any new cap added because of them...so many variables making a signing like Kreider especially in a tight cap situation and the anchor contract that the team still has with the King .

I agree, and I've talked about this a few times, it's not just the moving that would be a concern --- it's who's returning.

There's a lot of talk of moving Buch and Strome, and that's all well and good. But that's also moving 110 points. You have to get some talent and production back in a deal. It cannot just be for marginal talents on entry level deals (because you're not getting higher-end talent on ELCs). So either you're getting guys on similar deals to those two, or you're getting less talent that comes cheaper.