Speculation: Roster Building LX: The Return of Cap(tain) Crunch aka LB Bus Stop Theme

[Ola]

I highly doubt Gorts has “nothing prepared.” The Rangers have been nothing but buttoned up since he took the reins. But that said... I wouldn’t be shocked if the moves he’s got available to him don’t blow us away.

I am sure he has fall-back options, but it does seem like he is hoping to be able to pull of something more lucrative first hand. Nothing to gain in dragging things on.

 

[eco's bones]

Beleskey LTIR and Smith bought out?

Is Beleskey hurt though and bad enough that he's going to miss a lot of games? Because there's a process to do that and the player is going to actually need to be banged up pretty good. You just can't throw him on LTIR without a good reason.

 

[Vitto79]

Is Beleskey hurt though and bad enough that he's going to miss a lot of games? Because there's a process to do that and the player is going to actually need to be banged up pretty good. You just can't throw him on LTIR without a good reason.

Not hurt they can’t jusr do that

Still think Belesky is attached to Kreider if he’s moved

 

[NYR Viper]

Not hurt they can’t jusr do that

Still think Belesky is attached to Kreider if he’s moved

Highly doubt that. He’ll be buried

I’m beginning to think Smith will be as well

 

[Ola]

I would take a Names and Smith buyout over a Shattenkirk and Smith buyout. The latter option cripples the Rangers with $10M+ in dead space next year (with Girardi & Spooner).

A Names and Smith buyout gets you a $1.3M & $3.3M hit next year, plus Girardi's $1.1 & Spooner's $300K. Which equals $6M in dead space.

A Shattenkirk and Smith buyout gets you a $6M & $3.3M hit next year, plus Girardi's $1.1 & Spooner's $300K. Which equals $10.7M in dead space.

Is it really fair labeling it as “getting us dead cap space”?

Smith most certainly is dead cap space today. Is Shatty even on opening night roster? It is not very unlikely that he will be scratched a lot. A big part of his cap space today is dead cap space for us.

I think it’s hard to argue against a statement that buying them out saves us dead cap space, not the other way around. And the way Gorton has worked the phones lately — I don’t think that it’s a stretch to expect him to be able to turn that dead cap space into valuable assets for us.

Furthermore, we just mortgaged the future by giving Buchnevich a bridge deal. How much will that bridge deal cost us when we are supposed to contend? Buch has been a very a consistent 0.5 PPG while adjusting to the NA game, building up his body, dealing with injuries etc. If he just has a decent contract year he could easily get up towards 60+ pts, and he will cost us a lot more than he does today.

With TDA, it’s only now we have any kind of leverage. If he puts up pts, say 40-50 pts next season, and has good stats he will get — a ton — in arbitration. Easily around 5m. We have depth and can wait him out in a hold-out. What could we strong arm him into signing for on a 4-5 year deal? 3.25m per? By not affording us the cap space to get a deal like that done — we are also mortaring the future.

The bottom line is that a buy-out saves 1/3 of the dead cap space these contracts represent. And while the remaining 2/3s are smeared out over 4 years instead of 2 — not buying these contracts out will also hurt us for many years to come because we will have to operate a team with zero maneuverability for a full 24 months. That will result in a heck of an amount of calls Gorts can’t participate in and many bad bridge deals and what not.

 

[haohmaru]

Highly doubt that. He’ll be buried

I’m beginning to think Smith will be as well

Kreider + Beleskey & Smith? I don't see that happening unless the other GM is drunk and a Rangers fan.

 

[nyr2k2]

On no, someone isn't blindly trusting the team. Quick, let's call him names.

It's not really about blindly trusting the team. It's just, over Gorton's tenure, what has the team done or not done that would make you think they're operating without a plan, and just winging it? I mean, just since "The Letter", it certainly seems like they have had a pretty clear plan and have executed it well. You're not wrong to have some inherent distrust in an organization that wins once every 25 years, but I don't see anything going on that would lead a person to believe there's no plan.

 

[NYR Viper]

Kreider + Beleskey & Smith? I don't see that happening unless the other GM is drunk and a Rangers fan.

Sorry I meant Beleskey and Smith will be buried, not bought out.

Honestly, I’d probably buy out Staal and bury Smith and Beleskey.

 

[Ola]

Yes, because we all know when they started their search and know better about how to conduct it.

I am sorry for being unclear, Gorton actually said just this. They were holding these talks off until a president came on board. It was a little while ago and I don’t have a link at hand, but I am sure you can find it at around the time we were looking for a prez.

 

[NYR Viper]

Is it really fair labeling it as “getting us dead cap space”?

Smith most certainly is dead cap space today. Is Shatty even on opening night roster? It is not very unlikely that he will be scratched a lot. A big part of his cap space today is dead cap space for us.

I think it’s hard to argue against a statement that buying them out saves us dead cap space, not the other way around. And the way Gorton has worked the phones lately — I don’t think that it’s a stretch to expect him to be able to turn that dead cap space into valuable assets for us.

Furthermore, we just mortgaged the future by giving Buchnevich a bridge deal. How much will that bridge deal cost us when we are supposed to contend? Buch has been a very a consistent 0.5 PPG while adjusting to the NA game, building up his body, dealing with injuries etc. If he just has a decent contract year he could easily get up towards 60+ pts, and he will cost us a lot more than he does today.

With TDA, it’s only now we have any kind of leverage. If he puts up pts, say 40-50 pts next season, and has good stats he will get — a ton — in arbitration. Easily around 5m. We have depth and can wait him out in a hold-out. What could we strong arm him into signing for on a 4-5 year deal? 3.25m per? By not affording us the cap space to get a deal like that done — we are also mortaring the future.

The bottom line is that a buy-out saves 1/3 of the dead cap space these contracts represent. And while the remaining 2/3s are smeared out over 4 years instead of 2 — not buying these contracts out will also hurt us for many years to come because we will have to operate a team with zero maneuverability for a full 24 months. That will result in a heck of an amount of calls Gorts can’t participate in and many bad bridge deals and what not.

I really don’t think Shattenkirk will be a healthy scratch early in this year and I think he has a bit of a rebound year honestly. The guy has been an extremely productive offensive defenseman in this league for a long time. He has a major knee injury but came on towards the end of last year. He’s had a full offseason to train.

 

[RGY]

Stop attaching negative assets to Kreider. Stop it.

If you are having a hard time finding the right deal right now then hold onto him.

Trade Namestnikov
Trade Smith with a 3rd round pick and $500k retained. OR buy him out
Trade Beleskey with a 6th attached for a team to take his 1 year left.

Then keep Kreider and deal him at the deadline when teams have more cap space and are pushing for playoff runs.

Or re-sign him knowing you have 26 million coming off the books in a year as long as the number is right.

 

[BayRidgeNYR82]

Long time lurker first time poster. Is it possible that the rangers sign Kreider long term with an eye on the new CBA coming and potential of another compliance buyout in a few years. No other current contracts they have a should be that toxic as to warrant a buyout once the three d and hank are off the books.

That way if they have buyers remorse they have an out in the long run

 

[NYR Viper]

Long time lurker first time poster. Is it possible that the rangers sign Kreider long term with an eye on the new CBA coming and potential of another compliance buyout in a few years. No other current contracts they have a should be that toxic as to warrant a buyout once the three d and hank are off the books.

Anything is possible, but if you’re signing someone with the thought that there may be a buyout available in a few years, that probably tells you enough about offering that contract.

 

[Irishguy42]

I am sorry for being unclear, Gorton actually said just this. They were holding these talks off until a president came on board. It was a little while ago and I don’t have a link at hand, but I am sure you can find it at around the time we were looking for a prez.

Fair, and I also mildly recall that, but it's still not late in the game for hiring. And JD has been hired for a decent amount of time now.

The only important thing that is coming up for a Hartford coach is Traverse City, and that's weeks away. It's not like they needed a coach last week.

We also have no idea what the hiring process has been like aside from a few smatterings here and there.

I just don't agree with the premise that Hartford desperately needed the hire in the last week or so. I think that's more being fueled by the idea that we're truly entering the dog days of summer and will be without a bunch of news around the NHL for a few weeks, once the Rangers finish their RFA/buyout business. And we're all desperate for news.

 

[SA16]

I think a lot of people believe moves are lined up because that's what they want to believe. I'm not seeing the evidence. The market is ground to a halt by RFAs. If the moves were there, he would have pulled the trigger by now.

I agree with you. I highly doubt moves are lined up. If he had any trades ready to go there is no reason they weren’t done already.

Also buying out Names doesn’t make sense. Worst case he c an be traded straight up for Condon which will save the same amount this year and have no hit next year.

 

[pld459666]

On the optics of it alone, I'd have preferred that cap clearing moves were made BEFORE signing Buchnevich.

Now, any "agreement" that may have been reached but not submit is susceptible to modification by the other team.

I still believe that buyouts should be the last option, especially one that will count over 5 million in dead space in 20-21.

I'm getting the feeling that GMJG is more reliant on the Buyout option to solve the cap issue this year.

Not the worst position to be in, but GMJG did himself no favors with the timing of the signing, however if the buyout route is the preferred option to solve the cap issue, then it doesn't matter.

The buy out option also allows GMJG the room and time needed to negotiate fair trades for one of, if not all three of Kreider, Namestnikov and Storme

 

[NYRFANMANI]

lmfao, as of now and today, we are the team with the highest cap hit ...

 

[TomLaidlaw]

The Girardi buyout should serve as a cautionary tale for us as we try to navigate our current cap situation. I'd much rather retain a significant portion of one of our bad contracts in a deal than buy someone out. There is a common misconception that Girardi held no value around the league at the time of his buyout. He may have held no value at a 5.5 cap hit. Post our buyout, Tampa signs him to a 3 mill/per 2 year deal. If we would have traded him to Tampa with a 2.5 mill retention, they would have gotten him for the price they were comfortable with. We wouldn't have had to buy him out, which would have resulted in us having approximately 600k more right now in salary cap space and we'd be out from under his contract completely by the end of this year. Instead of having three more additional years of 1.11mill on the books.

Now there are variables that I'm not accounting for in the above. Tampa may have only been comfortable with the 2 year term they gave him. Under the scenario above where we retain they would have had to be comfortable with a 3 year term which is what was left on his deal. The other factor is if Tampa would have decided to buy him out this year and then we'd be on the hook for a portion as well. Similar to the Spooner situation.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but if we had a time machine, going back two years ago and trading Girardi to Tampa for a 7th rd pick with 2.5 salary retention would have been the ideal scenario. We find ourselves in a cap crunch at the moment and we have three really poor contracts staring us in the face yelling "buy one of these out". If Gorton can navigate this situation by not doing that and instead moving them with cap retention instead so we don't absorb any additional term I would be ecstatic and I think we would really see his skill as a GM.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

On the optics of it alone, I'd have preferred that cap clearing moves were made BEFORE signing Buchnevich.

Now, any "agreement" that may have been reached but not submit is susceptible to modification by the other team.

I still believe that buyouts should be the last option, especially one that will count over 5 million in dead space in 20-21.

I'm getting the feeling that GMJG is more reliant on the Buyout option to solve the cap issue this year.

Not the worst position to be in, but GMJG did himself no favors with the timing of the signing, however if the buyout route is the preferred option to solve the cap issue, then it doesn't matter.

The buy out option also allows GMJG the room and time needed to negotiate fair trades for one of, if not all three of Kreider, Namestnikov and Storme

People keep on saying this, but its not true.

Kreider's value will be determined on the amount of interest he has around the league, not the Rangers' cap situation.

 

[Mikos87]

Girardi is currently at 3.6m, going down to 1.1 next year.

We have ~15 mill expecting to open up next seasson, this assuming one of the forwards get traded before the season. The only RFAs that need resigning are Georgiev and Nieves. Rangers have an expected 11 forwards under contract next season counting Kravtsov and assuming Boo is resigned. We have our entire D core filled, and many ELC contracts in Hartford waiting to fill any gaps that open up. So effectively, we have ~15m im space to resign Georgiev, Nieves, and then 2 more forwards assuming no more Fs are acquired via deadline trades. Nieves will likely be under 1m, and if hes not we can replace him with another depth player. Georgiev will get a bridge contract, comparables for his situation are around 2-3m on a short term deal (Grubauer, Hellebyuck).

So EVEN counting this dead space, we have 11m+ to sign 2 forwards to fill out the roster. Besides, we don't need to buy out both Shattenkirk and Smith, just shattenkirk should be enough to get Lemiuex and ADA.

What about trying to make the team better? I've never seen an NHL roster, especially for the Rangers stay as static year over year as you're putting it.

 

[pld459666]

People keep on saying this, but its not true.

Kreider's value will be determined on the amount of interest he has around the league, not the Rangers' cap situation.

Agree and disagree.

To completely disregard the pickle the Rangers are in and not have that reflected in negotiations would be foolish for other teams.

I would bet there are teams that are negotiating with the mindset that the Rangers have to clear cap space and their offers are reflective of that.

I would also bet that once the Rangers clear that space, get everyone signed that the seriously interested teams adjust their offers to reflect that of a team under no compulsion to make a trade.

 

[Mikos87]

Is it really fair labeling it as “getting us dead cap space”?

Smith most certainly is dead cap space today. Is Shatty even on opening night roster? It is not very unlikely that he will be scratched a lot. A big part of his cap space today is dead cap space for us.

I think it’s hard to argue against a statement that buying them out saves us dead cap space, not the other way around. And the way Gorton has worked the phones lately — I don’t think that it’s a stretch to expect him to be able to turn that dead cap space into valuable assets for us.

Furthermore, we just mortgaged the future by giving Buchnevich a bridge deal. How much will that bridge deal cost us when we are supposed to contend? Buch has been a very a consistent 0.5 PPG while adjusting to the NA game, building up his body, dealing with injuries etc. If he just has a decent contract year he could easily get up towards 60+ pts, and he will cost us a lot more than he does today.

With TDA, it’s only now we have any kind of leverage. If he puts up pts, say 40-50 pts next season, and has good stats he will get — a ton — in arbitration. Easily around 5m. We have depth and can wait him out in a hold-out. What could we strong arm him into signing for on a 4-5 year deal? 3.25m per? By not affording us the cap space to get a deal like that done — we are also mortaring the future.

The bottom line is that a buy-out saves 1/3 of the dead cap space these contracts represent. And while the remaining 2/3s are smeared out over 4 years instead of 2 — not buying these contracts out will also hurt us for many years to come because we will have to operate a team with zero maneuverability for a full 24 months. That will result in a heck of an amount of calls Gorts can’t participate in and many bad bridge deals and what not.

It's dead space in the fact that it is unusable. The player, as bad as he is, still provides some sort of utility.

I think the Rangers were hamstrung with the cap to not go with the bridge route for Buch. IMO I would have liked to given Buch a 4 year deal at $18M. That would be great value for the next 4 years.

With Ada- you know there are externalities with him so giving him term isn't something I would do until he truly shows what he can do. I'm guessing he signs his QO or gets a $1M+ once the Rangers clear some space.

A Names and Smith buyout gets you $6M in space this year, while costing you only $1.3M in dead space next year (Smith's BO number off-setting Girardi's).

That $6M in space, and sending Belesky & one of Nieves and McKegg down gives the Rangers operating room this year.

That's how I see things playing out if trades can't be pulled off.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Have to assume Gorton has his next moves lined up.

Possibly a deadline for any trades to consummate by Tuesday or...
If everyone backs out, then buyout.

 

[Calad]

What about trying to make the team better? I've never seen an NHL roster, especially for the Rangers stay as static year over year as you're putting it.

We have more D prospects than we can count hoping to make the jump next season. We can easily find a forward to improve the club with 11m in space if Gorton so chose. This doesn't even account for the possibility of getting a good young player from trading Kreider

 

[Mikos87]

We have more D prospects than we can count hoping to make the jump next season. We can easily find a forward to improve the club with 11m in space if Gorton so chose. This doesn't even account for the possibility of getting a good young player from trading Kreider

And how are the Rangers becoming cap compliant this year?