Rielly Discussion Thread

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Morgan Rielly has 1 year left on his deal before he (likely) commands a significant raise and the front office would have to be really crafty to retain both he and Jack Campbell. I personally can’t envision a scenario in which the Leafs are able to keep the core 4 forwards together, and re-sign both Rielly and Campbell.

Having said that, I’m curious to see what people think of Rielly’s play and his future on the roster.

I’ll chime in first to say that I was very disappointed with his play this season. In the playoffs I thought he looked gassed in the defensive end and I attribute some of the PP’s inability to create chances on Rielly’s virtually non-existent point-shot. With the depth at LD (Muzzin & Brodie) and the emergence of Sandin, I think Rielly is at risk of becoming victim to a roster shake-up this off-season. Not to mention Dubas inherited him on the roster and wasn’t the one who offered him his current contract.

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[keonsbitterness]

Yes.

Whether he's here the following season, not sure.

 

[hamzarocks]

I love Mo, my favorite leafs player of all time. I offer him 8 years 6.5M if I'm dubas. If he signs we have our 1D for the next 5 years locked up. If he doesn't accept, you deal him to the highest bidder.

We can't let a guy like Rielly walk for free and its clear we don't do in-season negotiations. Either sign Rielly long-term up to 6.5M or you deal him for a top 15 pick in this draft + B+ prospect and use his space to go after Hamilton or a lower end LHD and a forward.

 

[Rokker]

I also like Rielly and thinks he brings a lot of value to a team.

With that said, I would move him. Can't have him walk for nothing.

Brodie and Muzzin share the load at 5v5 on the left. Sandin comes in as the PP1 replacement. Resign Bogo, integrate Liljjegren or go after Dougie.

There HAS to be value returned on Morgs because he has it. Can't let another one go for free, we need the draft capital.

 

[ottomaddox]

The Leafs will not find a player of his ilk in the free agent market at his cap hit.

 

[Buds17]

Contending would be tougher without him. Not sure a ready replacement is currently on the team.

 

[Aashir]

I’d be willing to pay him 6.5 x 6-8. PMD are critical for most teams. While he is not the greatest on the PP, I think having Marner right beside him exposes his weakness much more, both are pass first options.

However if he wants 6.5+ I see what I can get for him and try and replace him in FA. We won’t find another #1 Dman but can hopefully get a 2-3 and build a more stable Dcore.

He is one of the few players who ups his game every postseason. Even this year, he was a top 5 skater, he set Matthews and Marner up countless times, but alas they couldn’t bury it.

He’s one of the very few guys that dubas could deal and make a decent change to the lineup with

 

[Donnie740]

I love Mo, my favorite leafs player of all time. I offer him 8 years 6.5M if I'm dubas.

When people are insisting a mediocre hack like Zach Hyman “deserves every penny” of a $6m deal you truly have to wonder how they could possibly question giving a defenceman with the talent of Rielly just entering his prime is worth any less than $7m per.

 

[Stephen]

I'd be willing to pay him his $5 million plus $1.2 million of the Kessel money coming off the books after next year and another $300,000 to get up to $6.5 million but that's the hard upper limit. Otherwise, trade him and go get Dougie Hamilton this summer so you have the Rielly return and Hamilton in the system.

 

[The Apologist]

44% of voters really believe Rielly is gone?

Wow, I mean I guess it was only a matter of time before the Leafs boards and main boards integrated.

Edit -didnt realise it was only 15 voters.

 

[Aashir]

When people are insisting a mediocre hack like Zach Hyman “deserves every penny” of a $6m deal you truly have to wonder how they could possibly question giving a defenceman with the talent of Rielly just entering his prime is worth any less than $7m per.

He is really good and probably underrated by some. He isn’t even one of my favourites on this team but its hard to argue against a guy who shows up to every playoffs series.

But for a team like ours with its cap space and how it’s structured, he’d need to take a cut from his expectations if he wants to be a leaf

 

[The Apologist]

I'd be willing to pay him his $5 million plus $1.2 million of the Kessel money coming off the books after next year and another $300,000 to get up to $6.5 million but that's the hard upper limit. Otherwise, trade him and go get Dougie Hamilton this summer so you have the Rielly return and Hamilton in the system.

If we can get Hyman for 3-4m and trade highly overpaid Jake Muzzin and his almost 5.6M..... that would give us lots of money to get Hamilton for 7 or so.

 

[The Apologist]

He is really good and probably underrated by some. He isn’t even one of my favourites on this team but its hard to argue against a guy who shows up to every playoffs series.

But for a team like ours with its cap space and how it’s structured, he’d need to take a cut from his expectations if he wants to be a leaf

Or we could move one of the 11m wonders who don't show up?

 

[Aashir]

Or we could move one of the 11m wonders who don't show up?

I agree. But dubas has already doubled no tripled downed on them, so I didn’t really bring that up due to that reason

 

[Stephen]

If we can get Hyman for 3-4m and trade highly overpaid Jake Muzzin and his almost 5.6M..... that would give us lots of money to get Hamilton for 7 or so.

I would try to move Muzzin before Rielly for sure. I don't like a reality where we let Rielly walk as an own rental and we're paying Muzzin $5 million plus on a potentially back sliding team in 2023.

 

[ToneDog]

I would try to move Muzzin before Rielly for sure. I don't like a reality where we let Rielly walk as an own rental and we're paying Muzzin $5 million plus on a potentially back sliding team in 2023.

Just read a story in the Star and it analyzed Rielly and Marner trades. Muzz has a NTC so doubt he is going anywhere.

 

[The Apologist]

I would try to move Muzzin before Rielly for sure. I don't like a reality where we let Rielly walk as an own rental and we're paying Muzzin $5 million plus on a potentially back sliding team in 2023.

You mean almost 6m right? No way Riles is only worth 1m more than Muzz. He's gonna be closer to 8. Gonna be hard for Dubie to ask him to take less when Mitch and Auston are getting 11m per shits given.

 

[hamzarocks]

I'd be willing to pay him his $5 million plus $1.2 million of the Kessel money coming off the books after next year and another $300,000 to get up to $6.5 million but that's the hard upper limit. Otherwise, trade him and go get Dougie Hamilton this summer so you have the Rielly return and Hamilton in the system.

One thing with Hamilton that I may be misremembering is that back in 2013 when he was on the bruins didn't he say that he was glad the leafs didn't draft him and growing up he didn't like the leafs. I might be wrong and thinking of someone else but I remember people were happy we didn't have the 9th pick or whatever from the kessel trade and used that to justify the kessel deal

 

[ToneDog]

You mean almost 6m right? No way Riles is only worth 1m more than Muzz. He's gonna be closer to 8. Gonna be hard for Dubie to ask him to take less when Mitch and Auston are getting 11m per shits given.

Muzz making closer to 6 than 5 Dubie dollars.

Rielly can walk if he wants 8 Dubie dollars.

 

[LeafGrief]

Of all the players to blame for our loss in the playoffs, Rielly is not one of them. He was excellent.

If you like shots, he was on the ice for 94 shots for the Leafs and 42 against at 5on5. That's well over 2:1.
If you like expected goals, he was on the ice for 7.04 xGF at 5on5, and 2.94 xGA.
If you like actual goals, he was on the ice for 4 Leafs goals and 2 Habs goals at 5on5.
If you like scoring chances 72-40. If you like high danger chances he had 30-12.
If you like points he had a GWG and 2 assists.

Rielly averaged 25:48 per game in the playoffs and absolutely MANHANDLED the Habs by every conceivable metric you can think of.

Sure, he's not the best defensively. Sure, he's not very good on the point on the PP1. But every single thing we know about Morgan Rielly tells us that he's a very good defenseman and raises his game in the playoffs. Call 'em warts, call 'em flaws, call 'em whatever it is you like. They're the things that are going to keep his next contract somewhat reasonable. Keep Rielly because we're trying to be a winning team and he's not the reason we've been losing.

 

[hamzarocks]

You mean almost 6m right? No way Riles is only worth 1m more than Muzz. He's gonna be closer to 8. Gonna be hard for Dubie to ask him to take less when Mitch and Auston are getting 11m per shits given.

Oh man, there is zero chance we can afford Rielly at 8M. I think 7M is doable but 8 isn't happening with the 4 forwards not being dealt. I love Rielly but 8M is a contract that will lead to people whether here or elsewhere hating on him as he won't be playing up to that level outside of maybe 1 year in the deal. 6.5 is the ideal spot with it being a deal he can outplay and get a lot of continued praise from the fans while still taking in pre taxes/agent fees 52 million over the next 8 years (after getting pre taxes/fees 30 million already on his 2nd deal)

Your right though that no one on this team has taken a fair contract at the time of the signing let alone give a discount

Matthews got a gross overpayment which would drop to an overpayment at an 8-year term
Marner got a gross overpayment which drops to an overpayment at an 8-year term
Nylander got an overpayment at the time of signing after sitting out one year and burning one year being a non-NHL top 9 guy in 2019.
Tavares got the UFA premium being worth 9M and getting 11 due to a bidding war as a UFA

Rielly would also get UFA premium though COVID cap makes him miss out on such a big jump like JT. Rielly is probably a 6.5-7M player in a proper cap system with him getting 8M potentially due to bidding war as a UFA if he wants to move on

 

[axlrose87]

Morgan Rielly has 1 year left on his deal before he (likely) commands a significant raise and the front office would have to be really crafty to retain both he and Jack Campbell. I personally can’t envision a scenario in which the Leafs are able to keep the core 4 forwards together, and re-sign both Rielly and Campbell.

Having said that, I’m curious to see what people think of Rielly’s play and his future on the roster.

I’ll chime in first to say that I was very disappointed with his play this season. In the playoffs I thought he looked gassed in the defensive end and I attribute some of the PP’s inability to create chances on Rielly’s virtually non-existent point-shot. With the depth at LD (Muzzin & Brodie) and the emergence of Sandin, I think Rielly is at risk of becoming victim to a roster shake-up this off-season. Not to mention Dubas inherited him on the roster and wasn’t the one who offered him his current contract.

I’d love to have him back at a reasonable salary but is that even possible on this team?
Does he insist on being paid like his buddies?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I think having Marner right beside him exposes his weakness much more, both are pass first options.

exactly

 

[Donnie740]

Watch what Ty Barrie and Doug Hamilton get this summer.

That’s going to tell you exactly what Reilly’s market value is.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Watch what Ty Barrie and Doug Hamilton get this summer.

That’s going to tell you exactly what Reilly’s market value is.

That'll mean squat in terms of him re-signing here. He knows the Leafs are limited in what they can pay him -- probably no more than 7.