I've been thinking a lot about VsX recently and I would like to take a stab at another rule that will help to "normalize" the benchmark. If we assume the benchmark is the "normal" second place player then there are some instances where the benchmark is more of a "normal" first place player. I really love VsX as a system and think it could benefit from a different perspective (and subsequent rule) to help improve some of the variance.
We already have the rule where if #3/#2 <0.9 then #2 is an outlier. Love it.
But we keep seeing seasons where having #2 or #3 as the benchmark doesn't quite feel right. So I have another way of looking at the benchmark.
If a 10% lead is considered an outlier, then wouldn't a 5% lead be considered a "normal" range for first place above second place? So, if #3/#1 is <0.9 AND #3/#2 is <0.95, then we treat #3 as the benchmark. Afterall, this would be a season where #1 is leading by a wide margin, and #2 is leading the pack by a "normal" margin. So #2 would be a normal Art Ross winner, not a normal second place. Keep this for the entire top 10. It enables more than 1 or 2 outlier seasons as we no longer look at #1 as an outlier, but rather any VsX larger than 1 as being a "normal Art Ross winner". And the benchmark becomes more reflective of the "pack".
Here is every season after 1979-80.
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Season[/TD][TD]OG Benchmark[/TD][TD]New Benchmark[/TD][TD]Change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1979-80[/TD][TD]119[/TD][TD]106[/TD][TD]Rule 3 artificial number -> New Rule at #4 [/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1980-81[/TD][TD]135[/TD][TD]119[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1981-82[/TD][TD]147[/TD][TD]119[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #6[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1982-83[/TD][TD]124[/TD][TD]118[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1983-84[/TD][TD]121[/TD][TD]119[/TD][TD]Orr rule applies evenly, though I've adjusted the benchmark to #3 as Coffey is not a "normal Art Ross Winner"[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1984-85[/TD][TD]135[/TD][TD]117[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #6. Oilers players at #1,#2, and #5 is kind of an Orr rule anyways[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1985-86[/TD][TD]141[/TD][TD]131[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4. Oilers players at #1,#3, and #4 is kind of an Orr rule anyways[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1986-87[/TD][TD]108[/TD][TD]107[/TD][TD]Oilers break the rule again so I have gone with Lemieux at #3 instead of Kurri at #2[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1987-88[/TD][TD]131[/TD][TD]121[/TD][TD]#3->New Rule at #4. Savard was the "normal Art Ross winner" so Hawerchuk is the benchmark[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1988-89[/TD][TD]139[/TD][TD]115[/TD][TD]Rule 3->New Rule at #5. Recognizing that Lemieux, Gretzky, Yzerman, and Nicholls are all outliers[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1989-90[/TD][TD]129[/TD][TD]113[/TD][TD]#2-> New Rule at #5[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1990-91[/TD][TD]115[/TD][TD]115[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1991-92[/TD][TD]116[/TD][TD]109[/TD][TD]Rule 3 -> #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1992-93[/TD][TD]148[/TD][TD]142[/TD][TD]Lemieux is not a normal Art Ross winner, so LaFontaine is treated as it. So Oates at #3 is the benchmark[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1993-94[/TD][TD]120[/TD][TD]112[/TD][TD]#2-> New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1994-95[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]70[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1995-96[/TD][TD]120[/TD][TD]120[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1996-97[/TD][TD]109[/TD][TD]99[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1997-98[/TD][TD]91[/TD][TD]91[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1998-99[/TD][TD]107[/TD][TD]101[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1999-00[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]94[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2000-01[/TD][TD]96[/TD][TD]96[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2001-02[/TD][TD]90[/TD][TD]85[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2002-03[/TD][TD]104[/TD][TD]104[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2003-04[/TD][TD]87[/TD][TD]87[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2005-06[/TD][TD]106[/TD][TD]106[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2006-07[/TD][TD]114[/TD][TD]108[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2007-08[/TD][TD]106[/TD][TD]98[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2008-09[/TD][TD]110[/TD][TD]97[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2009-10[/TD][TD]109[/TD][TD]95[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2010-11[/TD][TD]99[/TD][TD]99[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2011-12[/TD][TD]97[/TD][TD]84[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2012-13[/TD][TD]57[/TD][TD]57[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2013-14[/TD][TD]87[/TD][TD]87[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2014-15[/TD][TD]86[/TD][TD]86[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2015-16[/TD][TD]89[/TD][TD]89[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2016-17[/TD][TD]89[/TD][TD]89[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2017-18[/TD][TD]102[/TD][TD]102[/TD][TD]No change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2018-19[/TD][TD]116[/TD][TD]110[/TD][TD]#2->New Rule at #3[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
I didn't do the last two seasons because HFboard won't let me add new rows to the table. But no changes occur.
Things I really like about this method:
- It recognizes season's like McDavid in 2019, Stamkos in 2012, Crosby/Ovi in 2010, Malkin in 2008, and Selanne 1999 as "outlier" seasons where they would have been the normal Art Ross winner.
- It recognizes that multiple "Art Ross caliber" seasons can happen at once. For years like 2008-09, where three all-time greats are all their peak play, it makes sense that all three would have been a normal Art Ross winner.
- There's less variance year-over-year, which makes more sense than huge jumps around
Thing I don't like
- Gretzky completely breaks this. And the way scoring was in the high 80s means the benchmark is frequently at the #4-#6 spot.
- I don't think Pat LaFontaine's 148 points is a reasonable benchmark for second place so I had to cheat to adjust, but I can't actually demonstrate it mathematically
- Gretzky breaking the game means his dominance becomes even more evident in this model, which perhaps is not right.
We have the Andy Bathgate rule of 7% above/7% below. This is a variation of that.
I took a quick look at 1945-1979, and the rule works fairly well from 1945 to about 1970 and then is broken the whole decade. A combination of Orr defying possibility and expansion craziness. I don't offer a solution. But I think Sturmonator creating the Orr rule is reflective that the entire era needs fudging.
All data has been provided in good faith, but it's all manual so please correct any errors.
A quick look at how selected VsX changes
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Person[/TD][TD]VsX7[/TD][TD]VsX7 Adj[/TD][TD]Change[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Wayne Gretzky[/TD][TD]155.6[/TD][TD]167.9[/TD][TD]+12.3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Mario Lemieux[/TD][TD]135.2[/TD][TD]148.7[/TD][TD]+13.5[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Jaromir Jagr[/TD][TD]114.2[/TD][TD]115.2[/TD][TD]+1.0[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD][TD]98.4[/TD][TD]103.7[/TD][TD]+5.3[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD][TD]102.4[/TD][TD]106.8[/TD][TD]+4.4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD][TD]93.7[/TD][TD]99.4[/TD][TD]+5.7[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Patrick Kane[/TD][TD]96.2[/TD][TD]98.6[/TD][TD]+2.4[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Connor McDavid[/TD][TD]89.2[/TD][TD]90.0[/TD][TD]+0.8[/TD][/TR]
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