Proposal: Red Wings offer-sheets Pettersson for 13 million

[notsocommonsense]

You are banking on so much "?":

- Seider never played in the NHL
- Pettersson never played a full NHL season (injuries)
- Zadina didn't break anything yet. Is Raymond making the team? He never played in the NHL so we can't know for sure if he will be ready and good.
- Wingers would be Vrana (who did good), Bertuzzi (missed almost all season), Fabbri (who isn't really a top-6 on a playoff team) and the 2 kids? Berggren (another unproven kid)?
- Nedeljkovic played 29 NHL games. Carolina let him go because they didn't believe he was worth 3M? Maybe they saw something in his game they weren't confident in, so I wouldn't celebrate a sure bonafide #1 G so fast IMO
- D isn't bad with Seider-Leddy-Hronek-DeKeyser, but really thin.

Even if ALL the stars align, any injury would crush the team. How can Yzerman give 4 1st rounder with that line-up just to had 1 player (who never finish a season over a PPG)?

Lol, after reading this, Detroit please make the offer. . I’ll take the 4 1sts and 13 million in cap space

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He would be overpaid only for 1 year and then the long extension is made with normal reasonable caphit, like 8M.

Point is to get the guy.

4 x first round pick could a pipeline of "Svechnikov, Cholowski, Rasmussen, Zadina".

Henkka, you sign a guy to a contract like that... you're not getting him on a longer term at a reasonable contract like that. Like I said on the Wings board... as soon as you offer him that contract, a guy like Pettersson has the leverage to not take some mutually agreed far lower contract. Because at that point, you've given 13M for 1 year AND 4 1sts. Are you seriously going to risk him walking over a million or two a year? So, that puts him up at 10M pretty easily. At this point if you wanted to do this, I just straight up offer Vancouver 4 1sts or some other package remotely close to that and negotiate my own long term deal with them and ignore this whole offer sheet nonsense. Get him on the contract I want and hell, maybe I convince Vancouver to give him to me for less than 4 1sts of value.

Pettersson's situation is 100% not like Kotkaniemi's. The contract numbers and assets you are surrendering are way too much to be bandying around without thought, thinking that Yzerman is just going to get a bargain contract on a guy.

 

[wonton15]

I’m sure Benning would be heavily inclined to match it to save his ass, but 4 1sts from a bottom feeder would be insane to reject with the talent coming up. I’d do it.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Red Wings shouldn't even think about an offer sheet. Their rebuild is going slow and steady in the right direction. They need to stay on track. Keep all those draft picks.

The only type of offer sheets they could possibly have considered (and the time is past now) was when Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen were coming up on their deals and they could drop a 3.5M offer to surrender a 2nd which could potentially have not been matched because Toronto at that point had much bigger fishes to fry than 3rd line guys. Detroit is in no way in the market to offersheet any top of the market guy.

 

[JoeMc]

Yzerman is not the type to go around making enemies.

 

[backburner]

I don’t get why top teams don’t do this.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I don’t get why top teams don’t do this.

There is this thing called the salary cap. You may want to look into it.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Petterson isn't going to sign with a team that is clearly not trying to be competitive yet.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Yzerman said all along his goal is to build a complete team that can contend for the cup year after year.

As opposed to the other GMs who publicly pronounce that they plan on sucking, or being mediocre or that they want to contend this year and then retire so they don't care about what happens.

This is right up there with GMs who say their plan is to build through drafting and developing.

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

There is no player in the NHL that's worth 13 million

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

As opposed to the other GMs who publicly pronounce that they plan on sucking, or being mediocre or that they want to contend this year and then retire so they don't care about what happens.

This is right up there with GMs who say their plan is to build through drafting and developing.

At every step of the way, he's preached patience. He's taken his guys, he's signed veterans that a lot of Wings fans are like "wtf". When Yzerman says"I'm trying to build a complete team that can contend for the cup year after year", I believe him. It's what he did in Tampa and he's been doing nothing but two types of moves.

1) Those moves that are trying to set, if not a core, then at least a base of competent NHL talent.
2) Low risk gambles (stalled prospects for other team's stalled prospects, taking a 2nd to take Marc Staal. Trading a 2nd for one year of Nick Leddy who can probably be flipped for that 2nd at the TDL if they are so inclined.

Absolutely nothing in Yzerman's actions in Tampa or in Detroit point towards an offersheet like Henkka is proposing nor do they run counter to the stated goal of building a consistent hockey team that can compete for a long time.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not every 1st round pick pans out. You could easily flop 4 first round picks and gained nothing. No guarantees. You better have a great scouting team for 2nd round pick and forth. There will always be 4 or 5 prospects that supposed to be a 1st round pick end up in 2nd round pick because teams choose to pick off the board in first round and it happens every year. Not a total loss if you are bottom 5 for 2nd round picks and you are still guaranteed to grab a first round that might be ready in 2-3 seasons. You gained top tier player in exchange for 4 1st, even on a rebuilding seasons. and if Petterson wants out before he's UFA, you recoup the lost picks by maybe 1 or 2 first round picks, a good player roster spot and a prospect in return at anytime you do not want him. Your rebuilding process is sped up by one or two season at the most. You do not want to be Oilers where it has too many first round on team and not doing anything to help the team for a decade. By the time you are eligible to negotiate, you can always negotiate on a team-friendly contract before he becomes UFA.

But, as you said from Petersson's perspective, why wouldn't he just take 13 mil qo next year?

So, like I said, rebuilding Detroit loses four 1st round picks for either ONE year of Petersson, or many years of Petersson remarkably overpaid as the highest paid player in the league at (lol) 13 mil. How does that make ANY sense from Detroit's perspective?

 

[Sky04]

They won't be in the Bottom10 when adding Pettersson and Seider. Mostly are pushing for the playoffs.

Look at their division, they'll bottom feeders even with Pettersson.

 

[TS Quint]

I’m not sure if OP should do more or less drugs to improve on this post…

Wings are not a player away from the playoffs.

Everything is fine in Detroit. Only thing needed is the patience to build a sustained winner. Keep stacking those prospects. Defense pipeline is looking solid. Forwards are not bad, just need that 1C from next year’s draft to move Larkin to 2C where he will be dominant. A little seasoning and they will be a winner for another couple decades again.

 

[jellybeans]

Canucks are still too good team to be anywhere near lottery win.

They would get one of those guys with detroits first.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Even with Pettersson they'd still be in the running for a lottery pick.

Not to mention Pettersson is worth nowhere near 13 million and would cost 4 1st round picks, 2 of which would likely be top 10s.
0% chance Yzerman is dumb enough to do this

 

[Hodge]

Even with Pettersson they'd still be in the running for a lottery pick.

Not to mention Pettersson is worth nowhere near 13 million and would cost 4 1st round picks, 2 of which would likely be top 10s.
0% chance Yzerman is dumb enough to do this

He's 22 years old and they would be guaranteed to have him for at least the next four seasons. Yzerman can't build a good team around Pettersson, Larkin, Vrana, Raymond and Seider over the next 4 years?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He's 22 years old and they would be guaranteed to have him for at least the next four seasons. Yzerman can't build a good team around Pettersson, Larkin, Vrana, Raymond and Seider over the next 4 years?

Petersson at 13 mil each year? Yeah... I don't think they could build a winner around that.

 

[Hodge]

Petersson at 13 mil each year? Yeah... I don't think they could build a winner around that.

Have you seen the rest of their cap sheet? Their only bad contract is DeKeyser which is over in a year. Yzerman should be able to easily build a contender even if his best player is overpaid by about $3 million. Especially since they should have a ton of ELCs coming through in the next few years.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Have you seen the rest of their cap sheet? Their only bad contract is DeKeyser which is over in a year. Yzerman should be able to easily build a contender even if his best player is overpaid by about $3 million. Especially since they should have a ton of ELCs coming through in the next few years.

"They have enough cap space to horribly overpay a player as well as lose four 1st round picks".

That doesn't seem like a good argument imo...

Dubas overpaid Marner (who had better elc stats than EP) and it's universally considered a bad contract and may cost him his job.

Now just imagine... just imagine... if it was (lol) 13 mil AS WELL AS Dubas lost 4 first round picks. He'd be fired with such a bad reference he would never work again. Not only in the nhl, but literally anywhere.

I mean, come on everyone. Let's be realistic about this.

 

[Hodge]

"They have enough cap space to horribly overpay a player as well as lose four 1st round picks".

That doesn't seem like a good argument imo...

Dubas overpaid Marner (who had better elc stats than EP) and it's universally considered a bad contract and may cost him his job.

Now just imagine... just imagine... if it was (lol) 13 mil AS WELL AS Dubas lost 4 first round picks. He'd be fired with such a bad reference he would never work again. Not only in the nhl, but literally anywhere.

I mean, come on everyone. Let's be realistic about this.

Marner being overpaid by $1.5-2 million is not a big deal and Pettersson being overpaid by $3 million wouldn't be a big deal either. The odds that any of those 4 1sts end up being as good as Pettersson are very low. Lower than anyone wants to admit.

The real reason a Pettersson offer sheet won't happen is that Vancouver will match every time no matter how high the price is. Pettersson is irreplaceable and trading Boeser and/or Miller for extra cap space is preferable to losing him for four lottery tickets.

 

[innitfam]

Why wouldn't they just do $1 less than the max compensation range, so it's not 4 1sts? Vancouver probably wouldn't be able to match anyway.

 

[Legionnaire]

Yzerman said all along his goal is to build a complete team that can contend for the cup year after year. They still don't know what exactly they have in many of their prospects. Over the next year or two they'll get a much better idea and if things progress well then maybe they'd be in a position to make an aggressive move like this. As it stands, there would just be way too much risk on their end.

This why Yzerman's hiring was essential. A lot of markets are not afforded the luxury of being able to rebuild because of the pressure to win. The pressure to win, to continue the legacy of the Wings that made 25 consecutive playoff appearences and Stanley Cup wins IS there in Detroit.

However, they brought in the one GM that they could be patient with and trust. Those two elements are key when your team is losing while rebuilding.

 

[coolboarder]

"They have enough cap space to horribly overpay a player as well as lose four 1st round picks".

That doesn't seem like a good argument imo...

Dubas overpaid Marner (who had better elc stats than EP) and it's universally considered a bad contract and may cost him his job.

Now just imagine... just imagine... if it was (lol) 13 mil AS WELL AS Dubas lost 4 first round picks. He'd be fired with such a bad reference he would never work again. Not only in the nhl, but literally anywhere.

I mean, come on everyone. Let's be realistic about this.

I'm not talking about Petterson but let's talk about this: RFA offer sheet is where you find your talent and draft pick is like roulette where draft picks don't pan out. Top UFA talent are rarely acquired because many teams has secured their contract by buying their UFA years. Therefore UFA where it's often the journeymen dwells and most of RFA is locked up into their 30's where most often it declines around 32-35 years old.

UFA signings is a very risky business and it can get you into a trouble with a bad contract, i.e. Loui Eriksson.

RFA offer sheet is often the worth the draft pick being lost which it might set you back a few years with lack of prospects whereas if a team accepts the offer sheet and is NHL-ready players at a premium price. If you are able to poach a talent away from them, it will shoot your draft position higher by a few spots where a loss of draft pick might not hurt so much, if you finish 10-15th spot but still out of playoffs spot and lower your chance of other team winning the lottery from your own pick. Then after securing his service, you have the power to decide what to do with him with flexible cap space.

If you offer sheet a top talented RFA for one year deal at a premium price, it is often that team who offered sheet would QO him for few more years on one-year deals (if he accept every time QO is tendered) rather than offer sheet at 4-5 years term where he might be overpaid by a few millions and hurts your cap space for one season rather than 4-5 seasons.

It doesn't hurt your bottom line if he had a super year with his new team for higher price and longer term when you begin to negotiate with him on January 1st. RFA will often think of his comparison of how the negotiation going in the summer with his own team and sleep on it and hope that a team would tendered an offer sheet if they lowballed you with their offer, you will take the higher paid offer sheet at one-year knowing that they would have to QO at the same price or let you walk and lose nothing as UFA and you can pick your own team and probably at a lower price but you would be comfortable with higher price that you might never get this chance again if you don't perform. If you paid premium for one-year deal to any RFA, then QO will be higher at his next contract and more likely that he would accept a QO if he had a bad season with his new team if they decide to give him another chance. If he had a good year, then you negotiate that said player to a team friendly AAV contract on January 1st in hoping that he would give you a good will if he having a good start at start of the season.

It is a win-win situation for one-deal offer sheet is that you are not committed to him long term at the beginning for higher premium price when compared to his peers at similar talents around the league. A bad year, you let him go, not committed unless you still have lots of room in cap space to give him another chance to rebound and if he falters again, you cut him loose as a rebuilding team.. The best players will often make others better than they truly are as it's often the case with superstars throughout the history if you are rebuilding team. Therefore you might not make the playoffs but your final draft position will be at mid-round picks rather than top 10. The risk of NHL-ready is more often the reward than the risk from their young career. Top talented player knows that he will get paid even if he underperforms after showing the best ELC player ever seen despite being injured prone.

 

[blankall]

Lol. Much worse deal than the KK offer sheet. Detroit is far more likely to have a high draft pick than Carolina..... Four 1sts out the door and they end up with a horribly overpaid player. EP is great, but not at that contract.

Lol. I guess Pettersson fits in with all the recent swedish draft picks that Detroit has been acquiring.