Friedman: Red Wings interested in Dylan Cozens

[SirloinUB]

Nobody seems to be mentioning the elephant in the room here. There’s a reason Cozens is on the trade block. He has a $7.1 million long-term contract, he’s not living up to. Not even close to living up to, and he’s over 100+ games into NOT living up to it.

If you go back and watch his 31 goals from 2 years ago, he scored from everywhere. He’s either going through a massive head case regarding confidence in his shot, or maybe Hathaway really did ruin his career with that knockout punch. He’s not even attempting shots from these same areas.

Every team “in on Cozens” knows there’s a possibility THIS is Dylan Cozens. They’d only make the deal, hoping two years ago was the Cozens they’ll get, but there’s no guarantees at all. They’re taking a big chance themselves, and that’s just taking on that contract. Giving up Grade A pieces is an entirely different, added pressure.

So it’s still a scary deal to make for any manager, and we have to start questioning what type of offers the Sabres are getting. From what I understand, they are nothing like some people are speculating, and the ball really is in Buffalo’s court. Teams aren’t going to increase their offers.

Teams are wanting to buy low, giving Buffalo the opportunity to get out from under what’s on its way to being a monster anchor of a contract.

We get to this summer and nothing’s changed, what do people think the offers will be after he’s 160 games into not performing up to that contract?

So it’s up to the Sabres to decide. They’ll still get good value today, but everyday his play doesn’t change, those offers will be less and less.

It’s a tough situation for the Sabres, cause if they hold on too long for better offers, and this is what he is from now on, they really will have a massive problem on their hands.

Or, they can cash in their chips, get a couple decent pieces and move forward. The ball’s in their court. It’s up to them, but fans shouldn’t be surprised if the value isn’t what they were thinking it’s gonna be.

Reasonable post but buffalo does have a 3rd option. It is possible for Cozens to rebound and that isn't an unreasonable bet for them to make.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Come on. You just essentially compared Cozens' value with Compher's in your mockery proposal and continued the petty pissing match when everyone is already in agreement that there's no reasonable deal to be made here.
Maybe you're not the one who should use expressions like "adult conversation".

I accounted for Compher's diminished value compared to Cozens by demanding a package (Ostlund/Levi) that was also diminished compared to the one asked of Detroit. (Danielson/Cossa or Augustine)

Both proposals were shit. One was intentional to highlight the ridiculousness the other. You're welcome.

 

[Borlag]

Detroit and Buffalo just aren't good trade partners. And even more so, Cozens isn't currently a viable target for anyone, unless Buffalo is willing to drop down the price, or retain half of that salary, which quite frankly is the only way that contract would become somewhat desirable.

Could Cozens rebound? Of course it is a possibility, but at the same time he's been underwhelming for extended period of time already. There isn't a team anywhere in this league that would pay a premium for that possibility. At best it would be another reclamation project, pick or a prospect. Not a guaranteed top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman. Why? Because why on earth would anyone give away something that is already guaranteed, for someone who might get back there?

Obviously not something Buffalo fans would ever want to consider, but that comparison to Compher isn't that far off. Only exception is that Compher is what he is, no one expects more. Is he overpaid too? Sure, but not to the point of Cozens currently. In this current cap league, that is a chance no sane GM does.

 

[Beerz]

Nobody seems to be mentioning the elephant in the room here. There’s a reason Cozens is on the trade block. He has a $7.1 million long-term contract, he’s not living up to. Not even close to living up to, and he’s over 100+ games into NOT living up to it.

If you go back and watch his 31 goals from 2 years ago, he scored from everywhere. He’s either going through a massive head case regarding confidence in his shot, or maybe Hathaway really did ruin his career with that knockout punch. He’s not even attempting shots from these same areas.

Every team “in on Cozens” knows there’s a possibility THIS is Dylan Cozens. They’d only make the deal, hoping two years ago was the Cozens they’ll get, but there’s no guarantees at all. They’re taking a big chance themselves, and that’s just taking on that contract. Giving up Grade A pieces is an entirely different, added pressure.

So it’s still a scary deal to make for any manager, and we have to start questioning what type of offers the Sabres are getting. From what I understand, they are nothing like some people are speculating, and the ball really is in Buffalo’s court. Teams aren’t going to increase their offers.

Teams are wanting to buy low, giving Buffalo the opportunity to get out from under what’s on its way to being a monster anchor of a contract.

We get to this summer and nothing’s changed, what do people think the offers will be after he’s 160 games into not performing up to that contract?

So it’s up to the Sabres to decide. They’ll still get good value today, but everyday his play doesn’t change, those offers will be less and less.

It’s a tough situation for the Sabres, cause if they hold on too long for better offers, and this is what he is from now on, they really will have a massive problem on their hands.

Or, they can cash in their chips, get a couple decent pieces and move forward. The ball’s in their court. It’s up to them, but fans shouldn’t be surprised if the value isn’t what they were thinking it’s gonna be.

We have over a year until we have to worry about the contract... there is no urgency like Pete The Greek is trying to imply.

 

[Chainshot]

All of the Talking Heads chatter is the teams are inquiring about him. It’s not that Buffalo has put him out there on the market. That kind of punches a hole in the idea that they’re desperate.

 

[Uberpecker]

Detroit and Buffalo just aren't good trade partners. And even more so, Cozens isn't currently a viable target for anyone, unless Buffalo is willing to drop down the price, or retain half of that salary, which quite frankly is the only way that contract would become somewhat desirable.

Could Cozens rebound? Of course it is a possibility, but at the same time he's been underwhelming for extended period of time already. There isn't a team anywhere in this league that would pay a premium for that possibility. At best it would be another reclamation project, pick or a prospect. Not a guaranteed top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman. Why? Because why on earth would anyone give away something that is already guaranteed, for someone who might get back there?

Obviously not something Buffalo fans would ever want to consider, but that comparison to Compher isn't that far off. Only exception is that Compher is what he is, no one expects more. Is he overpaid too? Sure, but not to the point of Cozens currently. In this current cap league, that is a chance no sane GM does.

Cozens and Compher are not comparable at all, no matter how much Detroit fans wanna push that narrative. Not age-wise, not potential-wise, not contract-wise, not in terms of their game or where they stand in their respective careers. And certainly not value-wise.
That first sentence, however, is true and therefore where this discussion should end.

 

[Borlag]

They're currently both third liners, both overpaid. Compher by maybe 20%, while Cozens by 50%. Cozens has potential to get back to what earned him that contract, Compher likely remains just as he is right now.

Age has nothing to do with it, if they don't play up to the worth of their contract, they're both low value. We treat ours just like that, you raise yours to a pedestal and expect a premium for it. But yea, I take it that you're not desperate, you're happy staying in the bottom.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

Nobody seems to be mentioning the elephant in the room here. There’s a reason Cozens is on the trade block. He has a $7.1 million long-term contract, he’s not living up to. Not even close to living up to, and he’s over 100+ games into NOT living up to it.

If you go back and watch his 31 goals from 2 years ago, he scored from everywhere. He’s either going through a massive head case regarding confidence in his shot, or maybe Hathaway really did ruin his career with that knockout punch. He’s not even attempting shots from these same areas.

Every team “in on Cozens” knows there’s a possibility THIS is Dylan Cozens. They’d only make the deal, hoping two years ago was the Cozens they’ll get, but there’s no guarantees at all. They’re taking a big chance themselves, and that’s just taking on that contract. Giving up Grade A pieces is an entirely different, added pressure.

So it’s still a scary deal to make for any manager, and we have to start questioning what type of offers the Sabres are getting. From what I understand, they are nothing like some people are speculating, and the ball really is in Buffalo’s court. Teams aren’t going to increase their offers.

Teams are wanting to buy low, giving Buffalo the opportunity to get out from under what’s on its way to being a monster anchor of a contract.

We get to this summer and nothing’s changed, what do people think the offers will be after he’s 160 games into not performing up to that contract?

So it’s up to the Sabres to decide. They’ll still get good value today, but everyday his play doesn’t change, those offers will be less and less.

It’s a tough situation for the Sabres, cause if they hold on too long for better offers, and this is what he is from now on, they really will have a massive problem on their hands.

Or, they can cash in their chips, get a couple decent pieces and move forward. The ball’s in their court. It’s up to them, but fans shouldn’t be surprised if the value isn’t what they were thinking it’s gonna be.

He’s not on the trade block
Detroit called and made offer
So far Sabres said no

 

[Petes2424]

Last year he got injured and played most of the season injured

This year he has been snake bitten with many opportunities and been stopped. Thesr
E shots were in the high risk scoring area

The PP as a whole has been an issue on the team

People think they can get him st bottom barrel prices and that is not happening

No interested team is looking at those being valid arguments. He’s trending to barely hit 40 points this year and missed 2 whole games last season. Nobody’s buying the lingering injuries excuse.

Every player in the league plays with nagging injuries. If the Sabres even thought a lingering injury was the reason for the decline, they’d have shut him down for 10-14 days long ago. Heck, they’d have done it more than once at this point.

We all know the talk in Buffalo, and the only talk about any type of injury being the reason for the last 100+ games is, the Hathaway fight. There are people who think that night, everything changed. I don’t buy that argument fwiw.

The concerns though, have begun to outweigh any slump, excuse, etc. Once again, it’s why he’s even being shopped. He’s not producing and he has a monster contract.

Then there’s some who think he just fit really well in Granato’s system, but I’ve watched Cozens play for years, in all sorts of different situations and systems. He can play in any. He’s literally just not shooting the puck like he did two years ago. That’s the difference many see in him, and I’m of that same belief. I don’t think it’s any scheme against him from opponents, not allowing him to get his shot off either. It’s just he’s NOT attacking the net like he was.

Those interested, think they can fix him. It’s why they’re interested. There are those who believe he’d excel being between players like Kane and Debrincat, rather than playing a lot with younger players and assuming the amount of pressure he puts on himself in Buffalo. It’s why a team like Detroit is interested in him. They think they can fix him. Something that’s NOT happening in Buffalo after 115-120 games.

That doesn’t mean however, they’d like to fix him and his $7.1 million deal, while handing Buffalo Grade A assets, just to have the opportunity to fix a highly paid player.

Teams trading for him, like it or not for Buffalo fans, are also taking a pretty hefty risk. Detroit can’t afford a long term $7.1 million, 40 point 2C. It would be a giant anchor contract, like it’s on its way to being in Buffalo.

It does look like a situation that’s going to come to a conclusion sooner, rather than later though. So we’re all gonna find out soon. I’m probably more inclined to give up fair value than most would be. It is going to be very interesting what a team does give up though, because the clock is ticking in Buffalo. He ends this season at 40 points, nobody is offering much of anything, anytime soon after that.

This is probably where they’ll get their best offers and still, fans shouldn’t get their hopes up with what that return is going to be. We’ll see though.

 

[SirloinUB]

No interested team is looking at those being valid arguments. He’s trending to barely hit 40 points this year and missed 2 whole games last season. Nobody’s buying the lingering injuries excuse.

Every player in the league plays with nagging injuries. If the Sabres even thought a lingering injury was the reason for the decline, they’d have shut him down for 10-14 days long ago. Heck, they’d have done it more than once at this point.

We all know the talk in Buffalo, and the only talk about any type of injury being the reason for the last 100+ games is, the Hathaway fight. There are people who think that night, everything changed. I don’t buy that argument fwiw.

The concerns though, have begun to outweigh any slump, excuse, etc. Once again, it’s why he’s even being shopped. He’s not producing and he has a monster contract.

Then there’s some who think he just fit really well in Granato’s system, but I’ve watched Cozens play for years, in all sorts of different situations and systems. He can play in any. He’s literally just not shooting the puck like he did two years ago. That’s the difference many see in him, and I’m of that same belief. I don’t think it’s any scheme against him from opponents, not allowing him to get his shot off either. It’s just he’s NOT attacking the net like he was.

Those interested, think they can fix him. It’s why they’re interested. There are those who believe he’d excel being between players like Kane and Debrincat, rather than playing a lot with younger players and assuming the amount of pressure he puts on himself in Buffalo. It’s why a team like Detroit is interested in him. They think they can fix him. Something that’s NOT happening in Buffalo after 115-120 games.

That doesn’t mean however, they’d like to fix him and his $7.1 million deal, while handing Buffalo Grade A assets, just to have the opportunity to fix a highly paid player.

Teams trading for him, like it or not for Buffalo fans, are also taking a pretty hefty risk. Detroit can’t afford a long term $7.1 million, 40 point 2C. It would be a giant anchor contract, like it’s on its way to being in Buffalo.

It does look like a situation that’s going to come to a conclusion sooner, rather than later though. So we’re all gonna find out soon. I’m probably more inclined to give up fair value than most would be. It is going to be very interesting what a team does give up though, because the clock is ticking in Buffalo. He ends this season at 40 points, nobody is offering much of anything, anytime soon after that.

This is probably where they’ll get their best offers and still, fans shouldn’t get their hopes up with what that return is going to be. We’ll see though.

Is he truly being shopped or did Detroit approach Buffalo? Those details matter.

If Buffalo wants to move on your broad analysis makes sense.

I'm not sure Buffalo is actively shopping him though and they hold all the cards. I think it was more so Yzerman approaching Buffalo. In that case, all of your logic goes out the window, and value is relative to what Buffalo wants back.

As a Red Wings fan, it is entirely reasonable for Buffalo to value him more than other teams value him. At worst he is still an overpaid middle 6er with upside to regain previous form.


All of that said, this all hangs on how patient Adams/the Sabres are with Cozens relative to that contract he isn't living up to. Everything you are saying makes sense IF the Sabres are starting to feel he won't live up to that contract and want to cut their losses. Id love to buy low if that is the case.



I'd bet on him if I were Buffalo.

I'd even bet Buffalo bets on him (it seems crazy to give up on him imo)

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

All of the Talking Heads chatter is the teams are inquiring about him. It’s not that Buffalo has put him out there on the market. That kind of punches a hole in the idea that they’re desperate.

You sure its not that teams are inquiring about him because it's been suggested that he is available by those connected to Buffalo?

No way it's 100% one-direction only

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Is he truly being shopped or did Detroit approach Buffalo? Those details matter.

If Buffalo wants to move on your broad analysis makes sense.

I'm not sure Buffalo is actively shopping him though and they hold all the cars. I think it was more so Yzerman approaching Buffalo. In that case, all of your logic goes out the window, and value is relative to what Buffalo wants back.

As a Red Wings fan, it is entirely reasonable for Buffalo to value him more than other teams value him. At worst he is still an overpaid middle 6er with upside to regain previous form.


All of that said, this all hangs on how patient Adams/the Sabres are with Cozens relative to that contract he isn't living up to. Everything you are saying makes sense IF the Sabres are starting to feel he won't live up to that contract and want to cut their losses. Id love to buy low if that is the case.



I'd bet on him if I were Buffalo.

I'd even bet Buffalo bets on him (it seems crazy to give up on him imo)

In more positive moments, this is my thinking. In more negative ones I feel like Cozens has been in his own head since his contract, and Buffalo sucks at getting the most outta these guys. They shouldn’t be shopping him, but they maybe didn’t tell the Red Wings off as emphatically as they should have. Now both teams have spent too much time trying to figure out a deal that makes no damn sense.

Detroit: “we want cozens.”
Buffalo: “ya he’s super cool, we don’t have enough centers though.”
Detroit: “darn- wait can you get a center elsewhere.”
Buffalo: “whoa, you’re really smart! Aw, bummer, Terry says we don’t have money for that.”

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

You sure its not that teams are inquiring about him because it's been suggested that he is available by those connected to Buffalo?

No way it's 100% one-direction only

Or or it that gmka said “our phones are open, we are looking to make our team better”

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Sabres are not trading for futures. Sabres are not trading Cozens to Detroit unless it involves a top 6 forward.

Why wouldn’t they? The Sabres are very far away from contending for a playoff spot.

 

[Dr Amazing]

What’s a $7.1m, 40 point player worth? Feels like the Wings need to pay for a lot of emotional attachment.

It's just the way things go now and days everyone paying a price Detroit's also gonna pay a price.

 

[Chainshot]

You sure its not that teams are inquiring about him because it's been suggested that he is available by those connected to Buffalo?

No way it's 100% one-direction only

Considering guys like Friedman and Lebrun talk about how they never get anything out of Buffalo, yeah I’m pretty sure that this is just coming from outside.

 

[Petes2424]

He’s not on the trade block
Detroit called and made offer
So far Sabres said no

He’s being shopped 100%.

It’s really simple stuff here. He’s gonna be 24, he’s trending 40 points, and he makes $7.1 million long-term. He’s also 115-120 games into his big decline in production.

If some fans choose to think there’s not people looking to get out of that contract before his value tanks completely, and they’re stuck with his term, that’s on them. Teams don’t overpay for struggling players. This isn’t a 20 game issue it’s a 120 game issue now. If he made $3.5 then it would be a different story. He makes $7.1 million.

Like I said. We’ll see pretty quickly here.. Like I also said, I’d probably offer more than most teams are offering because I’ve watched him for so long. But don’t for one minute think Buffalo isn’t in the middle of deciding, whether to cut bait now, and get a decent return, instead of the alternative. Where he ends up with negative value this summer. That will happen if he finishes the season at 40 points. He’ll be 160 games into his so called slump, with a whole lot of term left at over $7 million.

 

[SirloinUB]

Considering guys like Friedman and Lebrun talk about how they never get anything out of Buffalo, yeah I’m pretty sure that this is just coming from outside.

Conversely the Red Wings are famously tight lipped.

Knowing both teams are tight lipped, which side is this rumour more likely to be leaked by?

I'd say Buffalo as they would be the one more likely to "benefit" from this trade negotiation being leaked.

Why on earth would Detroit leak this? How would that help them in their pursuit?

 

[Chainshot]

Conversely the Red Wings are famously tight lipped.

Knowing both teams are tight, who is this rumour more likely to come from?

I'd say Buffalo as they would be the one more likely to "benefit" from this trade negotiation being leaked.

Why on earth would Detroit leak this? How would that help them in their pursuit?

Then that would be a first since things don’t come out of Adams’ FO. I am more inclined that both the Vancouver and DRW interest is generated from those markets. We’ve heard plenty of stuff about who the Red Wings are interested in, including things that have come to pass. Not so much for Buffalo.

 

[SirloinUB]

Then that would be a first since things don’t come out of Adams’ FO. I am more inclined that both the Vancouver and DRW interest is generated from those markets. We’ve heard plenty of stuff about who the Red Wings are interested in, including things that have come to pass. Not so much for Buffalo.

What are some examples of Detroit moves under Yzerman that have been leaked before they happened?

Things don't come out of Yzerman's front office.

And again I ask, which team stands to gain more from leaking this? Id argue Buffalo by getting more buyers in the mix.

 

[LarKing]

I think the only way I'd be happy with paying up for Cozens is if we've determined both Kasper and Danielson aren't going to make it as a 2C. That definitely isn't the case yet.

The tough part here is of course the contract. For a near 70 point player, that contract is fine. But that's the thing, he's averaged 47 points per 82. You can argue his first season or two brings that down and he's a better player now. Then you're looking at a 51 point pace without his rookie year. 55 point pace without the first two seasons. For a 7m dollar player, it's just not great production. Also really discouraging his one season where he would be worth that contract came when he shot close to 50% higher than his career average.

I'm not trying to knock Cozens either. I still think he can be a very solid 2nd liner/low end 1st liner. It's just for 7M with that term I'd be hesitant to give up real value. If we traded for him, best case is we get a player worth his contract or slightly more than worth it. Worst case is we give up assets for a player not even close to worth 7M.

Which brings me back to my initial thoughts, maybe if we were desperate for a 2C and had already determined that piece wasn't potentially there with Kasper or Danielson. I don't think we're close to that second bit of criteria yet.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

He’s being shopped 100%.

It’s really simple stuff here. He’s gonna be 24, he’s trending 40 points, and he makes $7.1 million long-term. He’s also 115-120 games into his big decline in production.

If some fans choose to think there’s not people looking to get out of that contract before his value tanks completely, and they’re stuck with his term, that’s on them. Teams don’t overpay for struggling players. This isn’t a 20 game issue it’s a 120 game issue now. If he made $3.5 then it would be a different story. He makes $7.1 million.

Like I said. We’ll see pretty quickly here.. Like I also said, I’d probably offer more than most teams are offering because I’ve watched him for so long. But don’t for one minute think Buffalo isn’t in the middle of deciding, whether to cut bait now, and get a decent return, instead of the alternative. Where he ends up with negative value this summer. That will happen if he finishes the season at 40 points. He’ll be 160 games into his so called slump, with a whole lot of term left at over $7 million.

No. Wrong

 

[StrompTroller]

I accounted for Compher's diminished value compared to Cozens by demanding a package (Ostlund/Levi) that was also diminished compared to the one asked of Detroit. (Danielson/Cossa or Augustine)

Both proposals were shit. One was intentional to highlight the ridiculousness the other. You're welcome.

I'd take Ostlund and Levi over Danielson and either goalie too....

 

[Djp]

He’s being shopped 100%.

It’s really simple stuff here. He’s gonna be 24, he’s trending 40 points, and he makes $7.1 million long-term. He’s also 115-120 games into his big decline in production.

If some fans choose to think there’s not people looking to get out of that contract before his value tanks completely, and they’re stuck with his term, that’s on them. Teams don’t overpay for struggling players. This isn’t a 20 game issue it’s a 120 game issue now. If he made $3.5 then it would be a different story. He makes $7.1 million.

Like I said. We’ll see pretty quickly here.. Like I also said, I’d probably offer more than most teams are offering because I’ve watched him for so long. But don’t for one minute think Buffalo isn’t in the middle of deciding, whether to cut bait now, and get a decent return, instead of the alternative. Where he ends up with negative value this summer. That will happen if he finishes the season at 40 points. He’ll be 160 games into his so called slump, with a whole lot of term left at over $7 million.

He’s not.

Teams are calling t thinking buffalo will do a sell lowvpanic move.

As GM has said, buffalo will make a trade to improve the team. Selling if a player for magic beans/spare parts isn’t.

 

[Djp]

What are some examples of Detroit moves under Yzerman that have been leaked before they happened?

Things don't come out of Yzerman's front office.

And again I ask, which team stands to gain more from leaking this? Id argue Buffalo by getting more buyers in the mix.

Buffalo owner fired Murray because someone on his staff leaked info and Murray woukdnt fire him so he got fired.

Pegula’s teams doesn’t leak stuff. Others do

Buffalos holes going into the season was 2/3 center and 2RD. McLeod was acquired innthe off season but locally they were not sure if he was a center or wing.

Then you had Cozens slump to start the season so it doesn’t take much work to think maybe Buffalo might shop for a 2C and from a trade standpoint it’s logical in their depth at LD that a LD nor Dahlin gets moved. Sering Cozens slump , maybe they will trade him given the contract ghe has.