Speculation: Raymond Seider Contract Speculation

[TCNorthstars]

This is pure speculation, but what if whatever happened with the Walman in the locker room and his trade left a bad taste in Mo and Raymond’s mouth and that’s causing some hesitation and the delay?

Are you bored?

 

[Euro Twins]

Are you bored?

We all are it's summer

 

[JediOrderPizza]

This is pure speculation, but what if whatever happened with the Walman in the locker room and his trade left a bad taste in Mo and Raymond’s mouth and that’s causing some hesitation and the delay?

"I'm gonna celly like this, then Mo and Ray will hug me."

 

[Oddbob]

This is pure speculation, but what if whatever happened with the Walman in the locker room and his trade left a bad taste in Mo and Raymond’s mouth and that’s causing some hesitation and the delay?

Doubt it. Rumours are Walman alienated himself from some of the lockerroom, while Larkin was out with injury which likely means at least some of them were glad to see him gone.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Pay them more to change their mind. Odds are it would have still been less than what they are commanding now this fall with:
1. Ray's significant step up and
2. All the other D that have extended for big money out of their ELCs, none of whom are better than Mo.

So if you offer them both 8*8.5 last summer and they say "we have no interest in signing early" you just pay them more until they change their minds?

Or do you have a source on them being willing to accept less?

 

[norrisnick]

So if you offer them both 8*8.5 last summer and they say "we have no interest in signing early" you just pay them more until they change their minds?

Or do you have a source on them being willing to accept less?

Same source as the "they didn't want to sign early."

 

[Pavels Dog]

Same source as the "they didn't want to sign early."

I'm not presenting that as fact though, it's just pushing back on the idea that signing them early and cheap was a real option that Yzerman just decided to not use.

Also, the fact that they're not signed yet is reasonably solid evidence that these players have not been banging the table to get signed as early as possible.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Are you bored?

Very.

 

[Henkka]

Raymond would have been dirt cheap after his weak sophomore jinx season.

But it's very risky business to sign long-term after that kind of 57-point season.

Think it would have meant a bridge, for sure.

And what comes to Seider, they did put him suffer on purpose. Signing Gostisbehere in front of him to eat PP points and putting him under crazy qualcomp usage. both did affect on his numbers. Also using 7 defenceman, did drop Seider's and everybodys average ice-time, which is one factor for salary comparisons in negotiations.

We know there's a better than 42-point defencman in Seider, put they did put him look as bad as possible, in a contract year. Whatever he will sign, it will be a steal.

 

[Konnan511]

What if the players want to wait with signing? Just force them?

Do they get their signing bonus once they sign a new contract? Like if they did sign last summer, would they have received their signing bonuses on those new contracts? That's one reason I can see players signing new deals sooner off an ELC contract. I know they'll get signed, I just don't know if we'll be paying a premium due to other similar and worse players signing large deals. That's my only gripe.

 

[Henkka]

Do they get their signing bonus once they sign a new contract? Like if they did sign last summer, would they have received their signing bonuses on those new contracts? That's one reason I can see players signing new deals sooner off an ELC contract. I know they'll get signed, I just don't know if we'll be paying a premium due to other similar and worse players signing large deals. That's my only gripe.

I think they'll get the signing bonus on day 1, if the deal is signed after july 1st.

If the new contract signed before july 1st, the bonus is paid on july 1st, which is the new contract starting day.

Both Seider and Raymond have now delayed their (possible) signing bonuses for ~50 days.

 

[FlyguyOX]

What if the players want to wait with signing? Just force them?

I could've seen Seider doing that, not sure about Raymond.

But if some of these other stars like Jack Hughes didn't wait then not sure how DET's guys would have. It's possible, though.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I could've seen Seider doing that, not sure about Raymond.

But if some of these other stars like Luke Hughes didn't wait then not sure how DET's guys would have. It's possible, though.

Amazingly, Mo Seider and Lucas Raymond aren't the same guy as Luke Hughes.

Comparison is the thief of joy. Honestly, man, Raymond and Seider aren't getting more than Makar's 6x9. They're likely not getting much less if any that guys like Sanderson and Faber getting 8 and 8.5 or Stutzle in the mid 8s.

Complain about how long it's taking if you like, but the salary brackets for RFAs of that level are pretty much set.

 

[Henkka]

It's also interesting, that another RFA Seth Jarvis hasn't signed with Carolina, who is very close comparable from same draft class to Raymond. In both ways. Is Jarvis waiting for Raymond and Raymond waiting for Jarvis?

There really isn't comparable for Seider to wait for. Except RFA Thomas Harley from Dallas.

But Dallas has no cap space (only 4.6M) to sign Harley long-term, so this should be non-comparable....

But but but, if Seider isn't wanting shorter term... like Harley.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Amazingly, Mo Seider and Lucas Raymond aren't the same guy as Luke Hughes.

Comparison is the thief of joy. Honestly, man, Raymond and Seider aren't getting more than Makar's 6x9. They're likely not getting much less if any that guys like Sanderson and Faber getting 8 and 8.5 or Stutzle in the mid 8s.

Complain about how long it's taking if you like, but the salary brackets for RFAs of that level are pretty much set.

My bad, meant Jack.

I'm not complaining. I'm discussing. Last I checked that's what message boards are for.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

My bad, meant Jack.

I'm not complaining. I'm discussing. Last I checked that's what message boards are for.

The complaining comment was more addressed at the royal you than the specific you.

Fans: Sorry we're late, could you sign the contract now?
LR and MS: The answer is... no.
Fans: I'm afraid I must insist... You see, HFboards has been most vocal on the subject of the long term contract. "Contract, where is the contract? when are you going to sign the contract? Why aren't your signing the contract now? and so on. So please... the contract".

 

[norrisnick]

I'm not presenting that as fact though, it's just pushing back on the idea that signing them early and cheap was a real option that Yzerman just decided to not use.

Also, the fact that they're not signed yet is reasonably solid evidence that these players have not been banging the table to get signed as early as possible.

Mo was talking about 8 year extensions to media early last season. If he wasn't open to it, he wouldn't bring it up.

It is also equally solid evidence that Yzerman doesn't want them signed yet.

 

[Henkka]

Mo was talking about 8 year extensions to media early last season. If he wasn't open to it, he wouldn't bring it up.

It is also equally solid evidence that Yzerman doesn't want them signed yet.

If I build a scenario about this:

- 164 games, 12+80=92 points, -20, (0.56 points/game) 23:06min TOI/game.

Claude Lemieux:
"Mo is ready for a 8-year deal, already after 2 pretty decent years."

Yzerman:
"Well see after the 3rd year"... (signs Ghost, creates the qualcomp wear plan with Lalonde) "let's see how good you are".

Seider 3rd season:
- 82 games, 9+33=42 points, -7 (0.51 points/game) 22:22min TOI/game.

Yzerman negoatiting with Claude the Turtle:
"It seems your representative regressed a bit. I would go with the 8-year, but cutting the salary a bit, right?"

C.Lemieux informing Seider...

Seider:
- Hmmm.... (thinking for a bridge).

 

[norrisnick]

I refuse to get involved in your Yzerman fanfic.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

If I build a scenario about this:

- 164 games, 12+80=92 points, -20, (0.56 points/game) 23:06min TOI/game.

Claude Lemieux:
"Mo is ready for a 8-year deal, already after 2 pretty decent years."

Yzerman:
"Well see after the 3rd year"... (signs Ghost, creates the qualcomp wear plan with Lalonde) "let's see how good you are".

Seider 3rd season:
- 82 games, 9+33=42 points, -7 (0.51 points/game) 22:22min TOI/game.

Yzerman negoatiting with Claude the Turtle:
"It seems your representative regressed a bit. I would go with the 8-year, but cutting the salary a bit, right?"

C.Lemieux informing Seider...

Seider:
- Hmmm.... (thinking for a bridge).

Yzerman ain't doing that, my guy.

Yzerman was a player too. He knows that if it is clear he monkeyed with Seider's deployment to soften the hit that it would spread like wildfire and he'd lose all credibility.

And I mean... really, I'm not seeing where this decline is at. That difference that you just put is literally 4 points while being 13 +/- better in half a minute less per game.

That's normal variance in production, not actively holding a guy back. Honestly, I'd probably pay a hypothetical D with 82 game 9 and 33 with a -7 in 22.5 minutes a night a shade more than I'd pay a hypothetical D with an average 6 and 40 with a -20 in 23 minutes a night.

 

[Henkka]

Yzerman ain't doing that, my guy.

Yzerman was a player too. He knows that if it is clear he monkeyed with Seider's deployment to soften the hit that it would spread like wildfire and he'd lose all credibility.

And I mean... really, I'm not seeing where this decline is at. That difference that you just put is literally 4 points while being 13 +/- better in half a minute less per game.

That's normal variance in production, not actively holding a guy back. Honestly, I'd probably pay a hypothetical D with 82 game 9 and 33 with a -7 in 22.5 minutes a night a shade more than I'd pay a hypothetical D with an average 6 and 40 with a -20 in 23 minutes a night.

Regularry the theoretical development should be everything going up. Mostly the ice-time and production for a defenceman.

Think Seider would have got more a year ago. Raymond is the opposite.

Like if Sanderson is the comparable, he was 0.42 ppg player 1 year ago, when signing 8-year. Seider was 0.56, almost "superior" versus him. Seider TOI was also over minute more than Sanderson's.

Then they completed 0.48 ppg (Sanderson) and 0.51 ppg (Seider) seasons. They are much closer now in comparison. Sanderson also had higher TOI/GP than Seider at 2023-24. Numbers won't lie, you don't even have to negotiate at the negotiations, because the numbers will make the case.

 

[norrisnick]

Regularry the theoretical development should be everything going up. Mostly the ice-time and production for a defenceman.

Think Seider would have got more a year ago. Raymond is the opposite.

Like if Sanderson is the comparable, he was 0.42 ppg player 1 year ago, when signing 8-year. Seider was 0.56, almost "superior" versus him. Seider TOI was also over minute more than Sanderson's.

Then they completed 0.48 ppg (Sanderson) and 0.51 ppg (Seider) seasons. They are much closer now in comparison. Sanderson also had higher TOI/GP than Seider at 2023-24. Numbers won't lie, you don't even have to negotiate at the negotiations, because the numbers will make the case.

That is bafflingly silly to believe.

Not to mention, everyone involved knows Mo's deployment. It's not some secret that he had among the highest QoC this past season since the stat started being tracked. So it's not as if you get some random person off the street that doesn't know his ass from his elbow with regards to NHL defensemen and their deployment and they decide the contract value. This isn't an arbitration case.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Regularry the theoretical development should be everything going up. Mostly the ice-time and production for a defenceman.

Think Seider would have got more a year ago. Raymond is the opposite.

Like if Sanderson is the comparable, he was 0.42 ppg player 1 year ago, when signing 8-year. Seider was 0.56, almost "superior" versus him. Seider TOI was also over minute more than Sanderson's.

Then they completed 0.48 ppg (Sanderson) and 0.51 ppg (Seider) seasons. They are much closer now in comparison. Sanderson also had higher TOI/GP than Seider at 2023-24. Numbers won't lie, you don't even have to negotiate at the negotiations, because the numbers will make the case.

Right, and I'm saying that Seider has pretty much been the same guy for three years... largely due to the shifting sands of D pairings around him.

Mostly, I was just saying that Yzerman isn't going to instruct Lalonde to limit Mo's opportunities nor Lalonde limit his opportunities of his own volition for a contract.

And that's what I'm saying too. Particularly with Seider... He's not getting Makar RFA money 6x9. He's not going below Sanderson's 8. So there isn't much risk in staring contest over that last million.

 

[lilidk]

Could Mo and Ray get offers from other teams?
If so Yzerman have to match it

 

[norrisnick]

Right, and I'm saying that Seider has pretty much been the same guy for three years... largely due to the shifting sands of D pairings around him.

Mostly, I was just saying that Yzerman isn't going to instruct Lalonde to limit Mo's opportunities nor Lalonde limit his opportunities of his own volition for a contract.

And that's what I'm saying too. Particularly with Seider... He's not getting Makar RFA money 6x9. He's not going below Sanderson's 8. So there isn't much risk in staring contest over that last million.

At 8 years, I can easily see Mo commanding $9M given what other D in their ELCs have signed this past year (Power, Sanderson, Faber).

You can't point at a contract signed 3 years ago as if it means anything. Otherwise those three wouldn't have signed for higher AAVs than Quinn Hughes...