A 3% chance of becoming an NHLer is some wacky stuff lol
That's what happens when you put blind faith in a statistical model.
Using analytics in juniors or anything besides the top leagues seems like a recipe for failure. There are so many variables.
Didn't all scouting services have Othmann 15-25?
My biggest gripe with this tweet is that this guy is:
1. Using season totals to judge a player
2. Uses a model aimed at juniors for the Swiss League, a rare destination for NA draft eligibles
It's a weird career trajectory to use for these metrics.
Then there's the way his season unfolded Started out with 15 points in 17 games, before going cold with 0 in 13, but his team was 0-4-9 including an 8 game losing streak in those 13 games Once the team recovered, Othmann's production picked up again with 3 points in his final 8
- 3.18 G/GP during the 11-4-2 streak where he had 15 points
- 2.76 G/GP during the 4-9-0 streak where he had 0 points
- 4 G/GP during the 5-1-2 streak where he had 3 points
When you have people relying on models based on season totals and do not take 10-15 minutes to look into how a player actually played, you get flawed narratives. In addition to that: I don't expect a 17-year old draft eligible kid to carry a pro team when they hit a cold streak.
Othmann has been impressive in the OHL and the experience he gained, he's benefiting from. He needs to build on this. Unfortunately, he won't be AHL eligible until 2023-24, so it's another OHL season for him nuless he cracks the team.