I think that is the realistic expectation too.
It is a bit unfortunate that we don't have more time to prepare for this series. Under the cap, all teams will be stretched out to cover all bases. Tampas was a bit of an exception partly because they didn't have a roster that even remotely would fit under the cap, and they had so many overachieving players.
I have tried to analyze Carolina and they are definitely my favorite to win everything. But with that said, I am not at all surprised with how they defend in certain situations. I think Carolina would struggle heavily against like those 'peak' Pittsburg teams that we faced when Sid and Malkin played their best hockey. All their game is based on the ability to rattle teams and take them out of their comfort zone. They are so hard to get a hold of. But Boston's top line gave them big problems, but Boston have big big issues on that roster, and it was still as close as it was. They are definitely not elite at defending against a team that push them back...
I've mentioned this before, IMO, Carolina is all smoke and mirrors.
They absolutely do not have the top end talent that some other teams in these playoffs have, even our Rangers.
What Carolina does better than most is buying into a system and identity. Rod has them conditioned and willing to push their forecheck.
They have one guy: Aho. Zibanejad is better.
Svechnikov and Teravainen aren't better than any of the Penguins we just faced. Panarin and Kreider are better.
Trocheck? He had a wildly overachieving breakout season of which he has never even been able to get close to again.
Our defense core is better. Fox is better than DeAngelo. Skjei and Smith? We couldn't wait to dump them.
Our goaltender is better. Raanta? He was a backup here.
IMO the Penguins core we just faced is better and deeper.
I'm having a hard time recalling a more overachieving team than this Carolina team. The Montreal Canadiens last year.
This will be a matchup of coaching. If Gallant has our guys pushing the pace and forcing Carolina to defend, then they can't do what makes them good which is forecheck. Stand them up at the blue lines. Hound the puck. Take their game right to them.