Looks like some of the new mocks today from BA and ESPN have us going prep bat (I think Rainer, but I like subscriptions at the moment).
I can definitely see that result, but it's also worth bearing in mind that mocks have barely gotten our pick until the immediate moments before it happens. Most people had us taking someone other than Skenes most of the time, I don't remember a lot of talk of Johnson since we hadn't taken a prep bat before, etc.
So many variables in play and my last minute guess is that the Guardians might end up going for Condon and the smoke around other stuff is just that to get the best number they can. He makes sense for them as someone who would diversify their prospect group, and that's ultimately what I am hoping the Pirates do with their pick(s).
It's definitely a viable strategy to just draft what you are good at and then eventually trade it for what you are not, and though the full returns are still early, the pitching prospects look very deep and clustered together in the upper minors with debut windows in the next 1.5-2 years. If we ended up repeating what we've seen before where almost all of the top 4-5 picks are pitchers, then we'd really be pushing that group over the top.
I'd love to see us swing a prospect for prospect trade with Baltimore, though I'd imagine that would have to wait until the winter. We should be in a position to move players now for controllable bats, but I am not holding my breath.
For this year's draft, I think it's too far to say that the 1st pick has to be a position player, or has to be a college bat, but I strongly lean that way. Burns/Smith or even Yesavage would be a perfectly defensible selection (and Yesavage would be especially funny because he should have a pretty quick path to the majors), but barring something extremely weird, there will be one of the bats to choose from: Kurtz, Montgomery, Wetherholt, Rainer, Griffin, Tibbs, etc.
One final note and then I am gonna try and hold off until after the game Sunday because I have just consumed way too much content: I recently listened to the Pipeline podcast and Mayo mentioned that teams in the back half of the top 10 are also weighing Cam Smith (14 on Pipeline) and Carson Benge (18 on Pipeline).
Both guys would make for interesting picks, especially at deals that make the second pick something we can really stretch and try for another 1st round talent. Both are sophomores, which fits more with the model-driven approach. Benge might have a shot to stick in center and might have more upside to show once he stops pitching. I like Smith a little bit more, and tend to like Smith more than his teammate Tibbs. Smith raked on the Cape last year (though Tibbs was excellent there too).
My total gut sense right now is that if Montgomery starts sliding out of the top 5, we should be willing to go a little over slot to try and float him down to our pick. I can see a scenario where it happens if Chicago or KC takes a prep player and then Yesavage also goes in the top 8 (1 pitcher to Colorado, 1 to St. Louis, and 1 to LA Angels). The bat worries me slightly but he has such loud impact tools. If not, and Kurtz is there, I think you just take him. And if neither is an option, then I really do like Smith, but it would be hard to complain with any of Tibbs, Moore, Smith, Benge, or Rainer/Griffin (I'd rather swing for the fences with Griffin).
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