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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

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Fogel said:
Looking at some team stats:

Baseball Reference has the pitching as #6 in pitching WAR with SP at #3 and RP at #21.
Fangraphs has the pitching at #11 in pitching WAR with SP at #10 and RP at #13.
I think this passes the eye test: strong starting pitching that is playoff capable especially from the top 3 and erratic relief pitching (good, bad, ugly, spin the wheel).

On the batting side, #25 at BR and #27 at FG.
I think this also passes the eye test: 🤮.
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Hmmm....interesting to see the differences on the pitching stats between BR and FG. That's actually a pretty big difference, imo. 7 and 8 spots diff from each company's SP and RP placement.

Yeah, the offense placement, that tracks.
 
WickedWrister said:
Forget rookie of the year (-550), he's 3rd in Cy Young betting odds right now lol

View attachment 894252

Fernando Valenzuela 2.0?

Would have to see the two guys above stumble a bit for Skenes to overcame the likely difference in wins.
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Fernando-mania, I remember that. That was incredible what he did.

41 scoreless innings to start his career as a starter. (he pitched 10 innings the year before in relief.)

Definitely a phenom.

GilbertSeinfeld said:
The Pirates DFA'd Honeywell (I didn't even realize he was on the roster/big league team), so whomever said Ashcraft might start today might be right.
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I could see that, vs. White Sox, might be the time to see what he has.
 
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I mentioned Ashcraft and I'd love to see it, seems to make a lot of sense to give him a cup of coffee right now as a preview for maybe a more lengthy promotion later in the summer. Still, I'd guess we might have heard about it by now, since we've known we needed to fill this spot for a bit and you'd think we'd have him get with the team by yesterday/last night in Chicago at least.

I hope I am wrong, but seems like either some kind of bullpen game, or Marco Gonzales will return and we just haven't announced it yet. Gonzales is scheduled for tonight in AAA. He only has two starts in Indy with 7.1 innings total, throwing 61 pitches in his last start, so presumably he's stretched out for 80 or so and we'll maybe use a Mlodzinski or Fleming opener.

Oh yeah, and there's this:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1811786318034112879
 
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We face Crochet tonight, a win would be a surprise honestly unless Joe remembers how to hit a baseball
 
Nice do we know who is starting for the AL? Lugo or that Skrewball dude?

I just want Skenes to strike out Gunnar. I don’t like the name Gunnar, or the cut of his jib.
 
Looks like some of the new mocks today from BA and ESPN have us going prep bat (I think Rainer, but I like subscriptions at the moment).

I can definitely see that result, but it's also worth bearing in mind that mocks have barely gotten our pick until the immediate moments before it happens. Most people had us taking someone other than Skenes most of the time, I don't remember a lot of talk of Johnson since we hadn't taken a prep bat before, etc.

So many variables in play and my last minute guess is that the Guardians might end up going for Condon and the smoke around other stuff is just that to get the best number they can. He makes sense for them as someone who would diversify their prospect group, and that's ultimately what I am hoping the Pirates do with their pick(s).

It's definitely a viable strategy to just draft what you are good at and then eventually trade it for what you are not, and though the full returns are still early, the pitching prospects look very deep and clustered together in the upper minors with debut windows in the next 1.5-2 years. If we ended up repeating what we've seen before where almost all of the top 4-5 picks are pitchers, then we'd really be pushing that group over the top.

I'd love to see us swing a prospect for prospect trade with Baltimore, though I'd imagine that would have to wait until the winter. We should be in a position to move players now for controllable bats, but I am not holding my breath.

For this year's draft, I think it's too far to say that the 1st pick has to be a position player, or has to be a college bat, but I strongly lean that way. Burns/Smith or even Yesavage would be a perfectly defensible selection (and Yesavage would be especially funny because he should have a pretty quick path to the majors), but barring something extremely weird, there will be one of the bats to choose from: Kurtz, Montgomery, Wetherholt, Rainer, Griffin, Tibbs, etc.

One final note and then I am gonna try and hold off until after the game Sunday because I have just consumed way too much content: I recently listened to the Pipeline podcast and Mayo mentioned that teams in the back half of the top 10 are also weighing Cam Smith (14 on Pipeline) and Carson Benge (18 on Pipeline).

Both guys would make for interesting picks, especially at deals that make the second pick something we can really stretch and try for another 1st round talent. Both are sophomores, which fits more with the model-driven approach. Benge might have a shot to stick in center and might have more upside to show once he stops pitching. I like Smith a little bit more, and tend to like Smith more than his teammate Tibbs. Smith raked on the Cape last year (though Tibbs was excellent there too).

My total gut sense right now is that if Montgomery starts sliding out of the top 5, we should be willing to go a little over slot to try and float him down to our pick. I can see a scenario where it happens if Chicago or KC takes a prep player and then Yesavage also goes in the top 8 (1 pitcher to Colorado, 1 to St. Louis, and 1 to LA Angels). The bat worries me slightly but he has such loud impact tools. If not, and Kurtz is there, I think you just take him. And if neither is an option, then I really do like Smith, but it would be hard to complain with any of Tibbs, Moore, Smith, Benge, or Rainer/Griffin (I'd rather swing for the fences with Griffin).
 
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Fogel said:
Both Strasburg and Prior had clean deliveries and ended up breaking down.



I don't see how he can make up the volume that the others have on him. BWar has him within striking distance, but fWAR has Sale and Sanchez with over 1 fWAR on him. It is almost entirely due to volume; their FIPs are relatively close, but 40+ IP is worth a lot.



I wouldn't go anywhere near a bat only profile that high considering the recent history of high 1B picks like Vaughn and Torkelson. I'd go BPA, hell with drafting for need, you can always trade for need especially if Pirates have hit on a good formula for developing pitchers (which isn't a long track record so we will have to see).
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Is there an innings pitched requirement for Cy Young consideration? I only I could find is an inning per team game played "suggestion". But nothing concrete.
 
Ulf5 said:
Is there an innings pitched requirement for Cy Young consideration? I only I could find is an inning per team game played "suggestion". But nothing concrete.
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As far as I know, no. The IP/GP is only for consideration to be qualified for individual rate awards for starting pitchers. Think it is 3AB/GP for batters.
 
The Pirates bullpen has been quietly elite for the past ~6 weeks. Since June 1st:

-Holderman: 2.93 ERA in 16 games
-Bednar: 2.25 ERA in 8 games
-Mlodzinski: 0.96 ERA in 14 games
-Chapman: 3.14 ERA in 14 games
-Nicolas: 2.25 ERA in 13 games
-Fleming: 0.87 ERA in 7 games

Ortiz also has terrific numbers (2.67 ERA in 7 games), but he was basically a starter over that window. But regardless, this bullpen has been dynamic over the past 5-6 weeks. Hope they can stay healthy and continue this play.
 
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Raise it!

raise it f*** em gif.gif
 
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White Sox one of the worst teams ever. Just hopeless after they conceded the game taking Crochet out.

I think Jesse Winker makes a ton of sense as their add for this year. Would cost just a 6-10 guy in the system or maybe a 10-15 guy. Something like Mueth or Brannigan.
 
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