OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July
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WickedWrister
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BusinessGoose
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ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
If they don't lock Skenes up long term, even if it's just buying out 1 year of FA, someone will probably end up in jail.
There is no world where you don't pay for his services. He should be extended this winter at all costs.
There is no world where you don't pay for his services. He should be extended this winter at all costs.
DJ Spinoza
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For all the drama, that was a very successful series. Nabbing the series win when you have opener+Priester and Perez is always a success, much less on the road. It makes the bad missed opportunities against St Louis and New York sting worse, but the train keeps rolling on.
I do not expect a sweep vs Chicago, but the circumstances are ripe to be able to pull it off. Ortiz and Keller going Saturday and Sunday and no one listed for tomorrow yet. I wonder if Ashcraft could be called on. He's scheduled to pitch Saturday for Indy according to the MiLB app, but not sure how much that means and he would be on schedule (he last pitched July 6).
Regardless, we're set up to be able to bring ourselves back to .500 if we can string some wins together against a very bad team.
I do not expect a sweep vs Chicago, but the circumstances are ripe to be able to pull it off. Ortiz and Keller going Saturday and Sunday and no one listed for tomorrow yet. I wonder if Ashcraft could be called on. He's scheduled to pitch Saturday for Indy according to the MiLB app, but not sure how much that means and he would be on schedule (he last pitched July 6).
Regardless, we're set up to be able to bring ourselves back to .500 if we can string some wins together against a very bad team.
ChaosAgent
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We are not worth of Paul Skenes. Stephen Starsburg with more swagger and a clean delivery.
Colonel Mustard
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Factorial
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BusinessGoose
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It's a good thing we got it, then
I think only the "you gotta put your dues in, kid" old school baseball traditionalists are gonna say no
Hell yeah it is.. Off the bat of yikesmanny grandull, but I'll take it
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WickedWrister
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Forget rookie of the year (-550), he's 3rd in Cy Young betting odds right now lol
Fernando Valenzuela 2.0?
Would have to see the two guys above stumble a bit for Skenes to overcame the likely difference in wins.
Fernando Valenzuela 2.0?
Would have to see the two guys above stumble a bit for Skenes to overcame the likely difference in wins.
DJ Spinoza
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I think it's basically a foregone conclusion but who knows. If it was Thomson, I could see it going to Suarez, but Lovullo would go with the popular guy I think.
I also expect there to be pressure from MLB. It's a marketing event and they market Skenes non-stop. What better way to get people to tune in than by saying it's Skenes against Judge in the top of the 1st?
DJ Spinoza
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Penultimate mock from Callis/Pipeline, pretty similar to others. Has us taken Tibbs with Kurtz and Montgomery going ahead of us, but paints us as a fairly open book that is going to just see how the board falls.
Also listened to a BA podcast and they mentioned the high school bats for us, but included Montgomery if he was there and concurred with everyone that Kurtz makes a lot of sense. However, they seem to reaffirm that Kurtz could be a faller and didn't have Kurtz strongly linked to us or anything. They spent a lot of time talking about how much sense Kurtz does make for us, which reaffirms where my head is at as I keep saying.
I've consumed way too much draft content as usual, but I think that this is a year where we are going to see some surprise stuff happen. I don't think it will directly affect the Pirates all that much, but there could be some consequences. The only real certainty seems like all of Bazzana, Condon, and Caglianone will go somewhere in the group ahead of us, but there's such a broad pool of players and so many wild card teams that I think some "weird" stuff will happen, especially relative to the mental tiers you start making when reading a bunch of mocks.
The final caveat I'd add is that we haven't really taken these kinds of college bats other than Gonzales. I'm not sure how the new scouting director will change things, but I can definitely see from a tendency perspective how Kurtz isn't a slam dunk fit. That said, as I keep coming back to, he just seems like a gift option for a team with our window picking at 9. I'm sure he'd have a shot to fall in different circumstances too because the 1B profile is risky, but he's got so much polish and also has the data and swing decisions to back it up. The only reason to be down on him besides the limited defensive profile (and he's a good defender) is if you don't like the look of his swing:
I'm no scout, but nothing stands out to me in a negative way. You can tell why he gets Thome comps.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Draft is wide open. At 9, with no real defined flow above us.... total crapshoot. 1B profiles in round 1 scare the hell out of me but Kurtz makes a lot of sense. Montgomery has amazing tools, higher ceiling, but lower floor. If we're going that route, I wish Cags would fall but can't see him getting past Oakland. Oh well, just sit back and wait a few more days.
I think you need to come out of this draft with 2 legit ML bats. Bucs really need to replenish the position player ranks.
I think you need to come out of this draft with 2 legit ML bats. Bucs really need to replenish the position player ranks.
GilbertSeinfeld
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Nick Kurtz?
Make sure you enunciate his name slowly.
Make sure you enunciate his name slowly.
DJ Spinoza
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I was going to add one more thing, which is that I wonder if there's an outside the box shot we can walk away with two of the college bats. Specifically, Honeycutt is a player who might fall a bit in the first round, similar to Jud Fabian recently. Analysts don't seem to love the depth in this draft, so I could see there being some pressure not to miss with the first guy, and a CF with hit tool worries is a risky profile, even though he also has some kind of floor due to the elite defense and speed.
Probably a bit too much of a pipe dream, but Longenhagen didn't mock him in the first round, and he's often in the 20-30 range. If he tumbles a little bit, we definitely should have the ability to pay him 3M or so with our second pick, and other than the Diamondbacks having three fast picks at the end of round 1/comp round, I don't think there's a ton of danger from other comp round teams, as we have more money than all of them except Cleveland, and he doesn't seem like a Cleveland pick.
I'm not really enamored with any player in particular, but I do prefer Kurtz and Montgomery to the field.
For the second pick, I like Waldschmidt and White a lot, but I think Honeycutt is more prone to sliding. White may be someone who falls though. There's a ton of uncertainty after pick 4/5 and I think a lot more uncertainty about what will happen from pick 12 or 13 on.
Probably a bit too much of a pipe dream, but Longenhagen didn't mock him in the first round, and he's often in the 20-30 range. If he tumbles a little bit, we definitely should have the ability to pay him 3M or so with our second pick, and other than the Diamondbacks having three fast picks at the end of round 1/comp round, I don't think there's a ton of danger from other comp round teams, as we have more money than all of them except Cleveland, and he doesn't seem like a Cleveland pick.
I'm not really enamored with any player in particular, but I do prefer Kurtz and Montgomery to the field.
For the second pick, I like Waldschmidt and White a lot, but I think Honeycutt is more prone to sliding. White may be someone who falls though. There's a ton of uncertainty after pick 4/5 and I think a lot more uncertainty about what will happen from pick 12 or 13 on.
DJ Spinoza
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What these Altoona pitchers are doing lately is really impressive. You definitely have to hand it to the pitching development in recent years. I don't know that you can include Skenes there, since he's a pitching obsessed freak who would be good anywhere, but still have to credit how they approached this season with him. Especially with the new pitch being learned, it was the right decision to get his feet wet in AAA, and they are just going to have to bite the bullet with the service time.
The other player who hasn't been mentioned as much lately is Burrows, bit I suspect we will see him in Pittsburgh at some point in August/September. He's building up in the FCL but is on the 40-man roster with Ashcraft, so I think both will factor into the plans in some capacity. Burrows was terrific and also really close to getting the call before his injury, and now with Jones taking his step forward along with Skenes, Bubba cementing himself as a full-time pitcher, Ashcraft shoving, Harrington, Chen, Solometo, etc., he's almost an afterthought, but he could be an important player. And that's not even mentioning Ortiz, or -- at least for the moment -- Mlod and Nicolas looking like potential leverage guys.
I expect we might use Burrows as a kind of hybrid pitcher, since he should be able to give you some length in a piggyback type start to preserve Jones or Skenes' innings a bit. His stuff could really play up as a multi-inning reliever.
BusinessGoose
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Naw, this was the best rule to adopt.
I think Jones would be better at the plate, though.
Skenes is pretty smart though with his answers:
Paul Skenes defends Pirates manager Derek Shelton for pulling him in the middle of a no-hitter: 'I get it'
Skenes left the game after seven innings and watched the bullpen lose his no-hitter
www.cbssports.com
I don't think it was wrong to pull him. Yeah it was a no hitter, but it's not worth going to 130 pitches to try for it. It wasn't a perfect game.
Rossi Rat
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It’s looking like we might be witnessing greatness on the mound yet again tonight, but unfortunately, it’ll be on the other side… Garrett Crochet is slated to start. I guess 2/3 in this series would be fine… but even if they do somehow sweep, I just don’t see where they’ll be able to finally string together wins.
They need to go something like 41-28 the rest of the way just to hit 86 wins. They’re not going to get there with this win 1, lose 1, win 2, lose 2 BS.
And next on the schedule out of the all star break?
Phillies
Cardinals
At Arizona
At Houston
Arizona
San Diego
At LA Dodgers
At San Diego
Seattle
At Texas
Yikes. And I stopped there but even into September it’s basically all teams still in contention, most of whom are ahead of the Pirates in the standings. And they also still have Cleveland, KC, the Yankees…
They need to go something like 41-28 the rest of the way just to hit 86 wins. They’re not going to get there with this win 1, lose 1, win 2, lose 2 BS.
And next on the schedule out of the all star break?
Phillies
Cardinals
At Arizona
At Houston
Arizona
San Diego
At LA Dodgers
At San Diego
Seattle
At Texas
Yikes. And I stopped there but even into September it’s basically all teams still in contention, most of whom are ahead of the Pirates in the standings. And they also still have Cleveland, KC, the Yankees…
Both Strasburg and Prior had clean deliveries and ended up breaking down.
I don't see how he can make up the volume that the others have on him. BWar has him within striking distance, but fWAR has Sale and Sanchez with over 1 fWAR on him. It is almost entirely due to volume; their FIPs are relatively close, but 40+ IP is worth a lot.
I wouldn't go anywhere near a bat only profile that high considering the recent history of high 1B picks like Vaughn and Torkelson. I'd go BPA, hell with drafting for need, you can always trade for need especially if Pirates have hit on a good formula for developing pitchers (which isn't a long track record so we will have to see).
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
Just like the NHL where goaltenders are overpowering the sport with their size, MLB better make a change to lowering the mound. Offense around the league is drying up. Juice the ball, lower the mound.......something needs to be done soon.
Looking at some team stats:
Baseball Reference has the pitching as #6 in pitching WAR with SP at #3 and RP at #21.
Fangraphs has the pitching at #11 in pitching WAR with SP at #10 and RP at #13.
I think this passes the eye test: strong starting pitching that is playoff capable especially from the top 3 and erratic relief pitching (good, bad, ugly, spin the wheel).
On the batting side, #25 at BR and #27 at FG.
I think this also passes the eye test:
.
Baseball Reference has the pitching as #6 in pitching WAR with SP at #3 and RP at #21.
Fangraphs has the pitching at #11 in pitching WAR with SP at #10 and RP at #13.
I think this passes the eye test: strong starting pitching that is playoff capable especially from the top 3 and erratic relief pitching (good, bad, ugly, spin the wheel).
On the batting side, #25 at BR and #27 at FG.
I think this also passes the eye test:
.
OnMyOwn
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I think the difference for me is a really good pitcher is exciting to watch. A really good goalie is kinda lame. Hockey is so fast and fluid and non stop action that no goals is a let down. Baseball being slow makes awesome pitching better, IMO.
Yea they need to get a bat and another solid reliever if they really want to make it interesting the rest of the season.Looking at some team stats:
Baseball Reference has the pitching as #6 in pitching WAR with SP at #3 and RP at #21.
Fangraphs has the pitching at #11 in pitching WAR with SP at #10 and RP at #13.
I think this passes the eye test: strong starting pitching that is playoff capable especially from the top 3 and erratic relief pitching (good, bad, ugly, spin the wheel).
On the batting side, #25 at BR and #27 at FG.
I think this also passes the eye test:
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