Yeah, when I hear it's Zeise, and Zeise alone doing a show, I just turn it off. Nothing against him, he just isn't very good at sports talk radio, imo.. Reminds me of just a random guy at a bar talking about sports. Same general knowledge. Not horrible, he's got some knowledge, but I wouldn't put a random guy at a bar on the radio.
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July
- Thread starter Zirakzigil
- Start date
- Status
ChaosAgent
Registered User
- May 8, 2018
- 18,781
- 12,859
He WAS the #1 prospect in baseball. Like it or not, when your MLB debut is as catastrophically bad as Holliday's was it devalues you. I'd probably still do it though. Holliday is so young.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
From what I saw, DK claimed hat was offered earlier in the year. Sounds vague and unrealistic to me, and also extremely un-Orioles like. Admittedly the same would likely apply to Jones after his breakout, but Holiday is the type of prospect that does not get traded, much less from a small market team.
Think about it: Jones is a breakout SP who had some command issues in the minors but was virtually unhittable for his first several starts. I am still a big Jones believer, but pitchers have nice runs and then a long adjustment period, injury, or some other problem fairly often. I just do not find it feasible that Baltimore would be offering Holiday in a trade and I do not think someone would turn down Holiday, especially given that we have a good amount of depth at SP.
Think about it: Jones is a breakout SP who had some command issues in the minors but was virtually unhittable for his first several starts. I am still a big Jones believer, but pitchers have nice runs and then a long adjustment period, injury, or some other problem fairly often. I just do not find it feasible that Baltimore would be offering Holiday in a trade and I do not think someone would turn down Holiday, especially given that we have a good amount of depth at SP.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
BusinessGoose
Registered User
I don't see a reason to think otherwise at this point
ChaosAgent
Registered User
- May 8, 2018
- 18,781
- 12,859
I disagree. I think it is a crazy, video game style trade but the value is close and the trade is realistic.
Baltimore is trying to win a world series this year and so a top of rotation addition in Jones would be much more helpful than what Holliday is. Plus they get Jones' control for years beyond this one - he is anything but a rental. Even if Holliday pops off to become, say, a Carlos Correa type of player here you say at least that you got a guy who was top of rotation and should stay that way aside from the injuries. And cheap years of control ahead.
Holliday sucked in the majors this year - he is still a great prospect but he will NOT help a playoff/World Series push in the year 2024. He is also blocked in Baltimore.
I think Cherington needs/needed to show real improvement this year. If he were in year 2 or something then I think he would have the equity to take this risk but he is not in a position to sell on a guy who has already been electric at the MLB level. But the value is really close to maybe favoring us in the long-term. Baltimore would do it to try to win the World Series now.
If the Orioles are offering Holliday now you'd think they would be all over Crochet or some combo of Max Meyer and Luzardo from the Marlins. It reminds me a little bit of the As trading Addison Russell for Samardzija and...Jason Hammel? from the Cubs in 2014.
ChaosAgent
Registered User
- May 8, 2018
- 18,781
- 12,859
Davis 4 Ks in Indy. Just sad.
Bart and Endy all the way. If Miami or Oakland/Vegas would take Davis as part of a Chisholm or even Bleday deal, let's just cut the cord.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
It sounds like the beat reporters (Hiles) have totally shot down the idea that this was offered, so it's probably a moot point to worry about it any more. I agree that the value isn't bad and that Jones' performance + Holiday's initial MLB struggle factor in.
But none of the other factors line up that well. For starters, if we assume Holiday's value took a hit with his MLB callup, then it makes even less sense that the team that drafted him 1.1 would look to trade him. Why not at least wait until he reestablishes some value?
Second, it would take some serious innings management to be able to have Jones active for a postseason push. He's going to soar over last year's total well before September/October, and you can't just shut him down for a month or something.
I don't really see Holiday being blocked in Baltimore either. Mateo is basically just keeping a seat warm for him and will end up non-tendered or as bench depth once he is ready to take over one of the IF positions full time. It overall just doesn't seem like the kind of deal I associate with the Orioles, and they also have a deep enough system to go after someone like Crochet (who will also have innings issues) without thinking about including Holiday.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Cherington and his scouting/development team are just awful.
But seriously, great to see. Our rotation could be absolutely ridiculous come next summer, certainly by the early portion of 2026.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
It may just be dumb optimism, but I feel like knowing the Pirates have a deep SP staff going forward will allow them to not have to spend money on SPs and instead spend them on bats. The $10 million or whatever they're paying Gonzales and Perez won't be needed anymore with Keller, Jones, Skenes, Oviedo, Priester, Falter, Ortiz and possibly Ashcraft as SP options for next year. They'll likely want to bring in some additional depth but it shouldn't cost too much.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Also I don't know how my friend has these connections, but he has 2 higher level connections with the Pirates and has shown that to be true multiple times in our own chats. He claimed that the Holliday for Jones trade idea was complete bogus, and it's just Nutting trying to play the media with DK to distract from that recent Perrotto article. He said that both of his connections with the Pirates support the "Nutting lied to the fans and Cherington" aspect.
This discussion sprung up because he's an Orioles fan and I asked him for his thoughts on the Holliday for Jones rumor.
This discussion sprung up because he's an Orioles fan and I asked him for his thoughts on the Holliday for Jones rumor.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
The idea that there's a semi-public spat between Nutting and Cherington / others in the front office does make some sense, though obviously does not bode well if it's true.
Nutting was uncharacteristically candid about the current team's need for offense, though I don't remember him saying anything that could be interpreted as a slight against the decisions that got them to this point. Maybe that was poorly received, though we still haven't seen anything like the front office leaking stuff to Perrotto.
My sense is that Perrotto's piece is still some kind of fabrication, or at best longstanding gripes coming from someone who isn't Cherington or close to him. It just doesn't seem in character that Cherington would be airing grievances mid-season, though of course it's possible that the Perrotto thing is something on its own and Nutting is still trying to distract.
Fundamentally, I don't really get the bat who could have been had if we spent more money in the winter. The big thing everyone was clamoring for (myself included) was a veteran SP on a multi-year deal. Jack Flaherty would have been a lot better than Perez or Gonzales, but it wouldn't do much for the bad offense. I should go back to the list of free agents and double check, but I also don't remember any kind of rumblings like this in the offseason. And mid-season, the main relevant question for talent acquisition is trading prospects. Even in a seller's market, we do have the ability to easily trade for one of Chisholm or Ward, or even Robert.
Nutting was uncharacteristically candid about the current team's need for offense, though I don't remember him saying anything that could be interpreted as a slight against the decisions that got them to this point. Maybe that was poorly received, though we still haven't seen anything like the front office leaking stuff to Perrotto.
My sense is that Perrotto's piece is still some kind of fabrication, or at best longstanding gripes coming from someone who isn't Cherington or close to him. It just doesn't seem in character that Cherington would be airing grievances mid-season, though of course it's possible that the Perrotto thing is something on its own and Nutting is still trying to distract.
Fundamentally, I don't really get the bat who could have been had if we spent more money in the winter. The big thing everyone was clamoring for (myself included) was a veteran SP on a multi-year deal. Jack Flaherty would have been a lot better than Perez or Gonzales, but it wouldn't do much for the bad offense. I should go back to the list of free agents and double check, but I also don't remember any kind of rumblings like this in the offseason. And mid-season, the main relevant question for talent acquisition is trading prospects. Even in a seller's market, we do have the ability to easily trade for one of Chisholm or Ward, or even Robert.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
My friend also mentioned this, apparently the main guys they were in on last off-season (in addition to the guys they signed) were Hoskins, Lorenzen, Sanchez, Pham and Floro. So yeah, the guys the Pirates were in on the off-season aren't really performing any better offensively than the guys they were looking at.
ChaosAgent
Registered User
- May 8, 2018
- 18,781
- 12,859
ChaosAgent
Registered User
- May 8, 2018
- 18,781
- 12,859
Yeah I just skimmed through it. I watched the Copa America game, then saw us fall down early and the ump call a few pitches off the plate strikes for the bad guys (big surprise there), then just started skipping through.
This team needs an 8-2 run at some point but it feels like it's 4-6 or 5-5 from here on out.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
Yeah that game was a mess from the beginning. Once Perez couldn't keep it within a run or two, it was basically just going through the motions. It would have been nicer if he could have eaten some more innings, but we escaped mostly unscathed with Honeywell and Ryan mopping up the rest.
Stage is set for Skenes+ series win and then weak opponent in CHW, but I am not holding my breath.
In other news, I don't see any new mocks making the rounds today, which is not that surprising. It sounds like Eric L will have his first one at FanGraphs at some point tomorrow: A 2024 MLB Draft Rankings Update
He doesn't seem too high on the group in general, but that's not surprising given that there aren't a lot of toolsy guys at premium positions. He's lower on Kurtz than most places I've seen, and interestingly higher on Cam Smith, which is something I have heard from a few people I trust.
I'm still leaning on Montgomery or Kurtz if they are there. The newer trend seems to be boosting one of the prep bats, and the draft is too unpredictable to have a completely firm position based only on some reading and clips. Ultimately I think if we can get a fairly quick moving bat, you just do that and bank whatever slot savings for a later pick (it sounds like there will be a lot of unpredictability about who actually falls).
If we end up with Rainer or Griffin, that doesn't seem like the worst result, but it puts a lot of pressure for that player not to end up as a bust if you can actually use the draft to fill the need for a competent everyday bat. In any case, I am curious to see how the FG mock unfolds, since Eric tends to be pretty plugged into front offices.
Stage is set for Skenes+ series win and then weak opponent in CHW, but I am not holding my breath.
In other news, I don't see any new mocks making the rounds today, which is not that surprising. It sounds like Eric L will have his first one at FanGraphs at some point tomorrow: A 2024 MLB Draft Rankings Update
He doesn't seem too high on the group in general, but that's not surprising given that there aren't a lot of toolsy guys at premium positions. He's lower on Kurtz than most places I've seen, and interestingly higher on Cam Smith, which is something I have heard from a few people I trust.
I'm still leaning on Montgomery or Kurtz if they are there. The newer trend seems to be boosting one of the prep bats, and the draft is too unpredictable to have a completely firm position based only on some reading and clips. Ultimately I think if we can get a fairly quick moving bat, you just do that and bank whatever slot savings for a later pick (it sounds like there will be a lot of unpredictability about who actually falls).
If we end up with Rainer or Griffin, that doesn't seem like the worst result, but it puts a lot of pressure for that player not to end up as a bust if you can actually use the draft to fill the need for a competent everyday bat. In any case, I am curious to see how the FG mock unfolds, since Eric tends to be pretty plugged into front offices.
MrBrightside
Registered User
If they were offered Holliday for anything that didn't include Skenes and turned it down, that's absolute malpractice. The Orioles are too smart for that...and I say this as a big Jones stan.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
2024 Mock Draft 1.0
With the draft set to kick off Sunday, who’s going where in the first round?
This sounds like it bodes well to me. He notes a little bit earlier than some people have Kurtz falling a bit, which would place him right in our lap like this. The other spots he mentions him are with Oakland (but that's where he says he's falling) and St. Louis, but it sounds like St. Louis is still pretty open. He has them going with Rainer and also mentions Burns if he falls.
I have been and probably will continue to just bleat on about this ad nauseum, but I think there's risk of overthinking it with Kurtz. Yes, it's not the best practice to take corner-only guys high in drafts and yes, the handful of 1B draft prospects in recent years have not done well, with many of the best 1B being converted there in pro ball.
But it's a pretty small sample of 1B draftees to really reach that conclusion, and also, with this crop of talent and the way the board could fall, it's hard to be that enamored with some of the other talent in our shoes. The big upside of a prep player would be a good pivot for a team that's already good and has shown it can sustain being good (i.e. St. Louis) for a variety of reasons, not one that has a ticking time bomb to try and win now. Montgomery might have more upside, but there's risk in his profile and I think it would be surprising if both him and Kurtz are there are 9.
Kurtz has better power upside than most everyone else in the draft besides Caglianone and Condon, too. The thing I keep coming back to is also that it's pick #9. It's always a mistake to conceive the MLB draft in terms of present big-league need, but picking 9th in any year leaves you lacking control over what will be available. If you end up with a chance to draft a quick-moving plus hit, plus power player, that seems like a gift.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
- 25,984
- 4,582
Law's mock has us taking Montgomery, which would be a great result IMO as well. He also has Kurtz as a potential faller but mocks him to the A's, who he is firm in saying will take a college bat which is also true of other mocks I've seen.
Both he and Longenhagen also have the Rockies taking one of the pitchers, which is a return to what seemed like consensus a few weeks ago.
It seems like the A's will be a big turning point in how the board breaks, and the A's pick hinges somewhat on what happens with the Guardians. I get the sense that if the Guardians take someone other than Bazzana, then Bazzana goes 4th and things open up more. If Bazzana goes first, then the A's are probably in on someone like Montgomery, Kurtz, or maybe Wetherholt. I am not remembering how much I've seen them tied to Wetherholt, but he seems like he could still be a good fit there, including with a small discount.
Law also mentions us connected to Tibbs, Rainer, Waldschmidt, and Moore. It seems like there's some settling on Rainer over Griffin in mocks, and in the Pirates case particularly because his hit tool is currently better.
Both he and Longenhagen also have the Rockies taking one of the pitchers, which is a return to what seemed like consensus a few weeks ago.
It seems like the A's will be a big turning point in how the board breaks, and the A's pick hinges somewhat on what happens with the Guardians. I get the sense that if the Guardians take someone other than Bazzana, then Bazzana goes 4th and things open up more. If Bazzana goes first, then the A's are probably in on someone like Montgomery, Kurtz, or maybe Wetherholt. I am not remembering how much I've seen them tied to Wetherholt, but he seems like he could still be a good fit there, including with a small discount.
Law also mentions us connected to Tibbs, Rainer, Waldschmidt, and Moore. It seems like there's some settling on Rainer over Griffin in mocks, and in the Pirates case particularly because his hit tool is currently better.
Rossi Rat
Registered User
- Feb 14, 2016
- 6,061
- 2,023
Aaron Civale and his > 5 ERA about to do the same today.
Also, just get this feeling Skenes is due for a bad outing. Nothing against him, he’s still great, but it happens to the best of them.
- Status
