OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[MrBrightside]

There are very few impact bats available on the market this offseason, thus even if the Pirates actually did try and spend it's pretty unlikely they'll outbid teams like Texas or the Mets or Cardinals that will be looking to bounce back from down seasons (without even getting into what the Yankees, Dodgers, etc., will do), so any real upgrade would have to come by trade. Considering that Joey Bart is the only reasonable position player at the major league level with any control that Cherington has added in his entire tenure, I'm not brimming with confidence that he'd identify and execute a trade worthy of dealing a top pitching prospect.

The fact we are in year 5 of this regime and there's literally one OF anywhere in the system that's an impact player and he's 30 years old and really shouldn't be playing the OF at all because he's a disaster defensively is...something.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the Pirates are relying on one of Cook or Yorke to take a MLB spot as an OFer next year. Both Cook and Yorke are getting looks in the OF, with Cook playing all 3 OF positions and Yorke mostly getting some reps in CF. I don't know if Yorke has the defensive chops to cut it in CF, and frankly I know nothing about Cooks because he's not mentioned in any prospect list, but that seems to be the path they're trying to go to fill the OF spots.

From reading up a bit on Cook, I have a feeling he'll end up being tried as their CF at some point next year:

“I like the outfield. I think my overall skills — the speed and the arm — play best out there. But yeah, being able to play the infield — being able to play second and some first — is valuable. If someone needs a day off, or maybe there is a matchup thing we want to take advantage of, I can accommodate that. Versatility is important, so I’m working hard to continue to get better at the infield.”

I think Bae and Suwinski are both DFA'd and Yorke and Cook replace them on the 40 man roster after the season. I don't think Cook is anything amazing, but I'm surprised Fangraphs only has him as a 35 FV prospect with how he's performing in the upper minors.

 

[MrBrightside]

I think the Pirates are relying on one of Cook or Yorke to take a MLB spot as an OFer next year. Both Cook and Yorke are getting looks in the OF, with Cook playing all 3 OF positions and Yorke mostly getting some reps in CF. I don't know if Yorke has the defensive chops to cut it in CF, and frankly I know nothing about Cooks because he's not mentioned in any prospect list, but that seems to be the path they're trying to go to fill the OF spots.

From reading up a bit on Cook, I have a feeling he'll end up being tried as their CF at some point next year:



I think Bae and Suwinski are both DFA'd and Yorke and Cook replace them on the 40 man roster after the season. I don't think Cook is anything amazing, but I'm surprised Fangraphs only has him as a 35 FV prospect with how he's performing in the upper minors.

I mean, sure, there are candidates to be in the OF in 2025. Cook, Yorke, BDLC, IKF, Suwinski, Bae, Palacios, Davis, Olivares, etc. - but anyone planning on going into 2025 with the idea that you'll fill 2 OF spots, 1B, and DH from that group along with Tellez or whatever scrap heap 1B they add and hell probably Cutch again is dooming this offense to failure.

And speaking of Tellez, his hot July seems to have given him largely a free pass with the media and fans. The guy can't play. He has a negative bWAR, a sub-.700 OPS, and has slugged under .400 two seasons in a row. They can't run that shit back again next year...but then again, there's no one else, so they'll either do that or add his equivalent late in free agency.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, sure, there are candidates to be in the OF in 2025. Cook, Yorke, BDLC, IKF, Suwinski, Bae, Palacios, Davis, Olivares, etc. - but anyone planning on going into 2025 with the idea that you'll fill 2 OF spots, 1B, and DH from that group along with Tellez or whatever scrap heap 1B they add and hell probably Cutch again is dooming this offense to failure.

They're obviously going to have to go outside of the organization to add a 1B, but I'm not overly concerned with planning on IKF playing CF and letting De La Cruz, Yorke and Cook battle it out as the main guys for the RF spot.

 

[MrBrightside]

They're obviously going to have to go outside of the organization to add a 1B, but I'm not overly concerned with planning on IKF playing CF and letting De La Cruz, Yorke and Cook battle it out as the main guys for the RF spot.

IKF hasn't really played that much CF and what he has played doesn't grade out well from a metrics standpoint, but I'd be lying if I said I have any ability to project him defensively at the position. The bigger issue I see is that his 2024 bat is such an outlier from the rest of his career that repeating anything close to it in 2025 seems unlikely. But I agree, he's the best option as it stands.

We'll agree to disagree about that mess in RF.

 

[Empoleon8771]

IKF hasn't really played that much CF and what he has played doesn't grade out well from a metrics standpoint, but I'd be lying if I said I have any ability to project him defensively at the position. The bigger issue I see is that his 2024 bat is such an outlier from the rest of his career that repeating anything close to it in 2025 seems unlikely. But I agree, he's the best option as it stands.

We'll agree to disagree about that mess in RF.

I'm not even remotely expecting IKF to maintain his power he has had this year, but even as a 90 OPS+ guy he's a useful leadoff hitter with his good contact rates, pretty solid OBP skills and good career base stealing results. He's a better fit for a leadoff role than McCutchen is, even though McCutchen's numbers as a leadoff guy this year are really good.

The one wrinkle in all of this is whatever is going on with Hayes. If Hayes gets traded, I think you just slide IKF into his spot. I have nothing to base the thought on that he may be moved, but him having such a disastrous season this year makes me not discount the idea. IKF is definitely a better defensive infielder than outfielder and has extensive experience at 3B.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think what they should do is something along the lines of this:

- Reynolds to DH/part-time 1B if he's willing to pick up the glove over the offseason. Unless he's going to find a new gear in the outfield, he should not play there again after the defensive disaster of 2024.

- Bart as 1A option for 1B. The bat will play. He's not a good framer, unless there are things that the team sees which they thing will be there after this year (his reputation was always good defender with power and no hit).

- Veteran power bat for the corner OF. Hernandez and Santander will be paid well, but not mega-max contract well. Santander will be 30 in the offseason and Hernandez will be 32. You will run the risk of paying through a decline, but 30-35+ HRs are not going to come out of nowhere and the situation won't be any different in 2025-2026 except that Reynolds will be a year older and you'll be stretching the "injury free" period of the current pitching group over a longer timeframe.

However, even this kind of picture presents some serious problems, beyond the obvious one that the Pirates are not going to get into a competition to pay a veteran outfielder in a thin FA class. The roster construction is extremely opaque: if you did what I suggested and moved Reynolds, the outfield would maybe have IKF flanked by one of those bats and BDLC... not exactly a good situation.

Bart to 1B is also something I feel pretty confident in, but it doesn't clear up the ongoing problems at catcher. The team has shown that they won't go into the season with Davis and Endy as the primary catching tandem, and there's probably good reason for that, even if you want to be optimistic and patient about Davis' bat (given Bart as well as tons and tons of catchers, I am willing to do that).

It's a mess. There's no centerfielder and the corner bat acquisition is a bad defender who might be a streaky 25 HR hitter if we are lucky. I think this brings me back around to Chaos' original suggestion of trading to get a guy like Dominguez, but I'm not sure the Yankees would want to do that and I'm still not sure it solves that many problems.

I'm rambling at this point, but as I see it, the core problem probably starts with the lack of a true CF and only then spirals over into the corners. Many teams solve these spots with part-time players and platoons, but the ones the Pirates tried (Suwinski, Olivares, now BDLC) have broken. It at least gets easier if you have a playable everyday CF. Jazz has now seemingly moved back to the infield when healthy, but it really does seem like Davis+ for Jazz was plan A that got rejected for a better offer. Now the question is how to revamp CF in the offseason. It's either sign Harrison Bader or make some kind of trade, and there aren't exactly surplus CFs available via trade. I'd be trying to swing a deal with Toronto for Varsho, hoping that maybe their offseason will consist in trading Bichette, working on a long-term extension with Vladdy, and trying to position themselves for 2026 and beyond with a kind of transition year next year.

That's the best I've got at this point. I'd like to see Yorke and Cook get cups of coffee in the next 6 weeks, but at the most they should be penciled in as depth/part-time players. IKF is an everyday solution as a utilityman, but this team needs 1 more at bare minimum.

 

[MrBrightside]

If he really does have a herniated disc, and I have no idea how this information is so oblique and hidden in 2024 MLB baseball, continuing to play him given how bad he's been is dumb on numerous levels.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I came to say the same thing. It's just one more mess on top of all the other ones for this team.

Even if he wanted to play through it, the Pirates should have found another solution and protected his back.

I feel like it's tempting to say "it really sucks to have such bad breaks when our margin to win is so thin", but these kinds of things are part of the nature of the sport that every team deals with, and the Pirates make their margins thin by not investing in the team and then making poor decisions on top of that. Hell, the Brewers probably lost their best player for the whole season, traded their best SP before the season, lost their manager in the offseason, and have seen some regression relatively speaking from Peralta, and they are still winning the division by more than 10 games on August 19th.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think this team is in a position to move Reynolds to DH with who else they have in the OF, especially when you consider they'd be pushing away a 110 OPS+ hitter in McCutchen to do that. He is absolutely going to end up as the DH when McCutchen retires, but I don't know that he's going to retire this off-season. He still has some gas left in the tank from what I can tell.

On IKF, I think it's most likely they use him as a super utility IF, but I think he makes too much money to not be a regular somewhere on the team. If he can play sufficient CF defensively (which he did in a small sample size with the Yankees), he needs to be their everyday CF. I don't see enough ABs available in the infield with Gonzales at 2B, Cruz at SS and Hayes at 3B. I know Gonzales massively cooled off after a scorching hot start, but his batted ball data was pretty good (.259/.308/.405 expected slash line) and he was great defensively at 2B. He needs to walk more but I'm pretty comfortable with expecting him to be a roughly league average hitter with good defense at 2B.

I think the main things this team has to do this off-season are:

1. Get another RF to push De La Cruz to the 4th OF spot. I'm not giving up on De La Cruz because of his bad start with the Pirates but I think he's more suited as a 4th OF/pinch hit power bat than a regular OF.
2. Get a lefty hitter to platoon with Bart at 1B, ideally a guy with some position versatility as well. I'm not in the "move Bart to 1B" group quite yet, but he won't be getting enough games as just a C with Endy healthy. I think you ideally split Bart and Endy at C while Bart plays 1B regularly when Endy is catching.
3. Get rid of all of the shitty bench pieces you have and completely try to revamp the depth of the MLB team. Guys like Joe, Olivares, Suwinski and Bae should all be DFA'd and let go. Triolo is useful due to his great defense but the rest of these shit bench pieces need to be gone.

I think your "playoff lineup" would be:

1. IKF (CF)
2. Reynolds (LF)
3. McCutchen (DH)
4. Cruz (SS)
5. Bart (1B)
6. RF addition
7. Gonzales (2B)
8. Hayes (3B)
9. Endy (C)

Bench: lefty 1B, Triolo, De La Cruz and a defensive sub OF

 

[Goalie_Bob]

There are very few impact bats available on the market this offseason, thus even if the Pirates actually did try and spend it's pretty unlikely they'll outbid teams like Texas or the Mets or Cardinals that will be looking to bounce back from down seasons (without even getting into what the Yankees, Dodgers, etc., will do), so any real upgrade would have to come by trade.

Excuse making at it's finest. Zero reason why the Pirates shouldn't sign at least two of those players.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Excuse making at it's finest. Zero reason why the Pirates shouldn't sign at least two of those players.

How was that excuse making? Realizing that this team is cheap as shit and an unattractive destination towards free agents isn't excuse making. They absolutely should be signing one of those guys, but are we seriously going to pretend that they're going to open up their wallets now all of a sudden?

I figure Nutting approves a payroll around $95 million for next year and they'll have a decent chunk of money to spend in free agency (especially if they cut bait with guys like Joe and Bednar).

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also if I were Cherington, I'd be setting aside some money to get Cruz signed to a long-term deal this off-season. I know he has defensive issues at SS, but the dude is reaching his potential as a hitter:

They flat out need to get this bat locked up long-term, regardless of what position he's going to play.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

If hayes really has a disk injury put him on the il 60 days open up a 40 man roster spot
Cook has played 1st so has York in AAA both have played cf and lf
I firmly believe that you can rotate the DH spot you can have bart and Reynolds both play some 1st base.
100 percent believe Keller is traded before he is getting the real money and bubba and harrington are being groomed to take his spot as much as Keller is our Jack flairty he is a 3rd starter on a playoff roster
Cruz should get his extension and bdlc is going to be either the everyday rf or lf

 

[ChaosAgent]

My thoughts on the recent discussion above are:

1) It is physically revolting to look at a lineup card featuring Ke'Bryan Hayes in 2025. Whether his body betrayed him yada yada. His body is going to keep doing that. The utmost priority must be given on removing him from this organization.
2) It's not that I don't like Jones. I think there's a pretty good chance that he's at the apex of his value right now though. And as far as pieces that could get us a controllable impact hitter, he is at the top of the list.
3) I find it odd, again, that posters that insist we hang onto Davis are also unwilling to write him in as an impact hitter in 2024. Is Davis just a lottery ticket at this point? I'll also say again, it's pathetic if he can't learn to play RF. Straight up shows a real inability to overcome adversity and adapt to take advantage of the opportunities you've been given.

I offer another trade proposal. An oldie-but-goodie.

To OAK/SAC/LV: Jared Jones, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Termarr Johnson
To PIT: JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker

2B IKF
LF Reynolds
SS Cruz
DH Rooker
1B Bart/Tellez
CF Bleday
3B Gonzales
RF De La Cruz (Davis opportunity to beat him out)
C Endy

 

[Empoleon8771]

My thoughts on the recent discussion above are:

1) It is physically revolting to look at a lineup card featuring Ke'Bryan Hayes in 2025. Whether his body betrayed him yada yada. His body is going to keep doing that. The utmost priority must be given on removing him from this organization.
2) It's not that I don't like Jones. I think there's a pretty good chance that he's at the apex of his value right now though. And as far as pieces that could get us a controllable impact hitter, he is at the top of the list.
3) I find it odd, again, that posters that insist we hang onto Davis are also unwilling to write him in as an impact hitter in 2024. Is Davis just a lottery ticket at this point? I'll also say again, it's pathetic if he can't learn to play RF. Straight up shows a real inability to overcome adversity and adapt to take advantage of the opportunities you've been given.

I offer another trade proposal. An oldie-but-goodie.

To OAK/SAC/LV: Jared Jones, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Termarr Johnson
To PIT: JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker

2B IKF
LF Reynolds
SS Cruz
DH Rooker
1B Bart/Tellez
CF Bleday
3B Gonzales
RF De La Cruz (Davis opportunity to beat him out)
C Endy

I would be screaming for Cherington's head if he made that move. I wouldn't move Jones alone for Bleday and Rooker, let alone throwing Johnson in as well.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

How was that excuse making? Realizing that this team is cheap as shit and an unattractive destination towards free agents isn't excuse making. They absolutely should be signing one of those guys, but are we seriously going to pretend that they're going to open up their wallets now all of a sudden?

I figure Nutting approves a payroll around $95 million for next year and they'll have a decent chunk of money to spend in free agency (especially if they cut bait with guys like Joe and Bednar).

A 95 million dollar payroll for next season is laughable and it goes to my point that people are already making excuses for the offseason and next season. We just couldn't do it, those big bad teams took all our lunch money......

Zero reason the payroll should not be at least 120-125 mil.

100 percent believe Keller is traded before he is getting the real money

So this offseason then? He signed a 5 year 77 mil deal this past offseason and makes 15 mil next season.

I would be screaming for Cherington's head if he made that move. I wouldn't move Jones alone for Bleday and Rooker, let alone throwing Johnson in as well.

That is just crazy talk. Rooker and Bleday would be two excellent everyday players for one starting pitcher. They should make that trade unless the pitcher is Skenes or Chandler. They spend a little money and next season they can start with this:

1: Bleday, CF, LH
2: Reynolds, LF, SH
3: Walker, 1B, RH
4: Rooker, DH, RH
5: Cruz, SS, LH
6: Cook/DLC, RF, SH
7: Bart/Endy, C, RH/SH
8: Gonzalez/Yorke, 2B, RH
9: Hayes/Triolo, 3B, RH

Skenes
Keller
Ortiz/Oviedo
Falter
Chandler

Shuffle 6-9 depending on performance. Move Cruz and Walker around depending on opposition pitching. I wouldn't have a problem with bringing McCutchen back to be a backup DH/bench player.

That's a lineup that can compete for the division and definitely get a wild card and then see what happens in the playoffs.

I originally had Santander in there as well for RF......

 

[bigdaddyk88]

In 27 and 28 when Keller is 31and 32 making 18 and 20 million for another team
We are at 57 million next year currently 23 120 would have us at 14th ahead of Minnesota and the Brewers

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would be screaming for Cherington's head if he made that move. I wouldn't move Jones alone for Bleday and Rooker, let alone throwing Johnson in as well.

It would be a divisive move.

I think Termarr has very limited value as a bat only guy who got Wade Boggs comps but is sitting in H-A with a .760 OPS. He has definitively dropped in value over the last year. And Hayes has negative value. Don't care what you say about WAR. Unless we have medicals that say his body will unbreak itself, he has to go. His performance demoralizes the team.

Jones' performance this year doesn't look that different than Roansy Contreras circa 2022 or Jameson Taillon circa 2016. He has amazing upside but so do a lot of pitchers. I bet this thread would much rather gamble on Chandler, and when you're picking the guy in AAA vs. the guy in the MLB, that's an indication that we believe Jones is going to fall back a little bit. Or just be a mid-rotation guy who flashes brilliance.

A 95 million dollar payroll for next season is laughable and it goes to my point that people are already making excuses for the offseason and next season. We just couldn't do it, those big bad teams took all our lunch money......

Zero reason the payroll should not be at least 120-125 mil.

You have that one poster who shall not be named that claims the Pirates are barely a break even business. Based on zero evidence aside from a preference to boot lick.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Just end your season and get surgery, Hayes.

You're a negative and this season is lost.

 

[Empoleon8771]

A 95 million dollar payroll for next season is laughable and it goes to my point that people are already making excuses for the offseason and next season. We just couldn't do it, those big bad teams took all our lunch money......

Zero reason the payroll should not be at least 120-125 mil.

Uh, do you know what team you're a fan of? That's not happening with this team. No one is "making excuses", we just know how the Pittsburgh Pirates operate.

That is just crazy talk. Rooker and Bleday would be two excellent everyday players for one starting pitcher. They should make that trade unless the pitcher is Skenes or Chandler. They spend a little money and next season they can start with this:

Which is insanely bad value because:

1. Starting pitchers are way more valuable than hitters, especially ones who can't play defense like Rooker.
2. Rooker is already turning 30 while Jones just turned 23.
3. Rooker is already hitting arbitration eligibility now while Jones still has 2 pre-arb years left.

Jones' performance this year doesn't look that different than Roansy Contreras circa 2022 or Jameson Taillon circa 2016. He has amazing upside but so do a lot of pitchers. I bet this thread would much rather gamble on Chandler, and when you're picking the guy in AAA vs. the guy in the MLB, that's an indication that we believe Jones is going to fall back a little bit. Or just be a mid-rotation guy who flashes brilliance.

I obviously disagree with the other 2 points regarding Johnson and Hayes, but I just want to focus on this one. Comparing Jones to Contreras makes no sense because Jones' underlying numbers are wildly better than what Contreras did in 2022. It's not even particularly close, either:

Contreras 2022:

Jones 2024:

Contreras was never really that good and him losing velocity on his fastball made him become completely unviable as a starter. Jones is a possible regression risk if his fastball loses much velocity, but he'd have to lose a lot of velocity on his fastball (probably drop down to like the 93-94 MPH range) for him to be even a little bit comparable to Contreras. The big difference between the two is that Contreras has always had a shitty fastball (even when he was throwing hard), while Jones' fastball is good while also having huge velocity.

Regarding the Taillon comparison, Taillon put up a 3.67 ERA in 82 starts with the Pirates, how is that an issue? Yeah, he got hurt a lot, but he was just injury prone in general. Jones hasn't had the injury issues coming up that Taillon had, at least as far as I know.

 

[ChaosAgent]

@Empoleon8771 fair points, well except for Hayes and Johnson (who is tenuously - at best - holding on to the #3 ranking in our farm system despite his draft status).

Jones is clearly better than Contreras was. However, I will ask the question about Taillon and whether he is truly better than an elite DH and a good outfielder. Take away the injuries and you have a good but not special pitcher. Basically - and this is painful to type - a Chris Archer type when he was originally with the Rays.
Something about Jones gives me the vibe that he could tantalize with his talent but then put up #3 type numbers.
And I disagree about whether a #3 pitcher with a live arm is worth more than good bats these days. Based on the free agent lists that have been going around, I am thinking not. Everyone is starved for hitting. We're just more starved than most.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

For those wondering, Ryder Ryan was DFA'd to make room for McKinney and Hayes was put on the 10-day IL, but I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the year on the IL.

Hunter Stratton has returned, too.

 

[MrBrightside]

I'm over the building for the future prospect hugging mentality but if they were to trade Jones and Johnson for two 30-ish corner/OF DH types I'd be livid. That would be terrible value.

 

[Factorial]

I don't like this new stadium.

Crappy viewing angle from the center field camera.

Private boxes on display on field.