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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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DocEmrickSkitters said:
Man the team is so committed to ST manipulation lol.

But in all seriousness Rodon would sh1t on Cruz. Peguero may have a chance.
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There is literally nothing to manipulate at this point though. Cruz is not ready defensively but his bat is very hot and that can be isolated w/the DH.

I'm sure the fact that Rondon is pitching tonight and Wood, another lefty is going tomorrow, played into the decision not to call him up.
 
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ImporterExporter said:
There is literally nothing to manipulate at this point though. Cruz is not ready defensively but his bat is very hot and that can be isolated w/the DH.

I'm sure the fact that Rondon is pitching tonight and Wood, another lefty is going tomorrow, played into the decision not to call him up.
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We are going to get swept again, eh?

This whole group can't hit lefty pitching.
 
ImporterExporter said:
We have some righty bats that hopefully balance us out, Peguero being one, obviously. Davis and Gonzo being the others of course.

But yeah, not expecting much this weekend.
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Like 75% sure that Davis will hit, but I have nowhere near this level of certainty with Gonzales and Peguero. Suwinski and Mitchell at times have looked competent against lefty pitching, but more often overmatched. I expect Cruz to be Alvarez redux at the dish.
 
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My expectation is that Cruz will get called up either tomorrow or Sunday and then Peguero will go back down.

I think Sunday may be a better bet because they're going against a lefty tomorrow and it would probably be more useful to have a righty bat than a lefty bat for that series.
 
Literally anyone who has stuff and throws with his left hand, our hitters are like "whhhaaaaaa is this??????"

I'm sorry, I just hate this whole organization right now. Minors aren't that promising either. There is nothing in H-A/A either.
 
This month Hayes is slashing a sweet .204/.278/.625 with a 34.7% K rate. Why is he still in the top half of the order? I don't get treating him like he's Barry Bonds.
 
KesselMania said:
This month Hayes is slashing a sweet .204/.278/.625 with a 34.7% K rate. Why is he still in the top half of the order? I don't get treating him like he's Barry Bonds.
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Andy Haines, the hitting coach who had at best, uneven results in Milwauke, is probably the #1 culprit. Didn't like that hire before the season and our hitters, by and large, have sucked for the bulk of the season.

And then you have Shelton, but I've already said where I stand with him.
 
I guess offense doesn't matter. This group of hitters - Suwinski, Castillo, Marcano, Mitchell, Castro, Swaggerty, Hayes - is by and large our group going forward unless the team actually shells out for upgrades.

Cruz maybe has helium. Davis may be great or at least an above-average bat. But holistically this season has been a disaster for the Pirates from a position player perspective. A bunch of replacement or slighty-better-than-replacement players accomplishes nothing. We had that with Wilmer Difo last year (why'd we let him go, anyway?)
 
Empoleon8771 said:
A couple of comments:

1. Lumping in his 2021 with his 2022, when his 2021 was plagued with wrist injuries that caused him to underperform, is insanely disingenuous.
2. I don't think it's fair to say that Hayes "lacks pop". He's 26th in the MLB in hard hit ball % this year according to Baseball Savant. His average exit velocity is 91.5 MPH, which is 35th and right around where guys like Trout, Olson and Donaldson are at.
3. What Hayes lacks is an exit velocity that yields homeruns. Hayes' launch angle is 7.9 degrees, which is the 42nd lowest. He hits the ball hard and often, he usually just hits line drives. This relates to his barreled balls rates being so bad, he hits the ball hard enough but doesn't get the launch angle needed.

In reality, Hayes is an above average contact hitter who hits the ball hard, but lacks the appropriate swing to get HRs out of doubles. He is a swing adjustment away from being a .850 OPS guy, it's just a question of whether he's capable of doing that.
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There’s no reason other than wishful thinking to suggest that Hayes’ 2021 was caused by an injury. His SLG% is basically identical this year to last and he never consistently hit for power in the minors. If you want to buy into the fantasy that 3 weeks in 2020 better reflect his ability than the other 7 years, have at it. But it’s not “insanely disingenuous” to be realistic.
 
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MrBrightside said:
There’s no reason other than wishful thinking to suggest that Hayes’ 2021 was caused by an injury. His SLG% is basically identical this year to last and he never consistently hit for power in the minors. If you want to buy into the fantasy that 3 weeks in 2020 better reflect his ability than the other 7 years, have at it. But it’s not “insanely disingenuous” to be realistic.
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If you're only capable of evaluating baseball players based on basic stats, don't insult other's intelligence by saying that their analysis is "wishful thinking".

You basically looked at the numbers I provided and just said "LOL HIS SLUGGING IS BAD SO YOU'RE JUST WISHFUL THINKING".
 
Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales and whoever we take at 4 this year have to be able to bash pitching, and especially left-handed pitching.

Otherwise the Cherington era won't ever be as successful as the Huntington era. And no I don't mean "hah hah we won 62 this year versus 58." I mean winning 90+.

I'm so disappointed in myself for thinking that we'd get 2 breakouts this year from the crew of B- hitting prospects hanging out in Altoona/Indy. Maybe if the ball is fixed and the shift is banned it will help.

There really isn't that much at Bradenton or Greensboro anymore. Despite the dripping off BC's nuts for the minors the whole system is north of the Mason-Dixon line basically.
 
Let's compare Hayes' actual plate data instead of just looking at slugging%:

-Average exit velocity: 91.6 MPH this year (34th in MLB), 90.2 MPH last year (69th in MLB)
-Hard hit ball%: 49.1% this year (27th in MLB), 45.8% last year (57th in MLB)
-Sweet spot%: 33.5% this year (137th in MLB), 27.4% last year (226th in MLB)
-Average distance: 158 ft last year (169th in MLB), 135 ft last year (223rd in MLB)
-Barrels per plate appearance %: 4.5% this year (169th in MLB), 3.5% last year (186th last year)

But yes, his 2021 and 2022 are identical in terms of power because his f***ing slugging% is the same.

In reality, Hayes is hitting the ball hard consistently this year. He's not hitting homeruns because of a bad launch angle, but he's peppering balls way harder than he did last year. Going forward, Hayes is going to be about a .280 hitter with an OPS a bit below .800, with him maybe having a season or two of above an .800 OPS.

I find it bizarre that people want to shit on Hayes when he has 2.7 WAR in 57 games this year. He's on track for 7.7 WAR over a 162 game season and he has already eclipsed his WAR from last year in like 40 fewer games.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
Let's compare Hayes' actual plate data instead of just looking at slugging%:

-Average exit velocity: 91.6 MPH this year (34th in MLB), 90.2 MPH last year (69th in MLB)
-Hard hit ball%: 49.1% this year (27th in MLB), 45.8% last year (57th in MLB)
-Sweet spot%: 33.5% this year (137th in MLB), 27.4% last year (226th in MLB)
-Average distance: 158 ft last year (169th in MLB), 135 ft last year (223rd in MLB)
-Barrels per plate appearance %: 4.5% this year (169th in MLB), 3.5% last year (186th last year)

But yes, his 2021 and 2022 are identical in terms of power because his f***ing slugging% is the same.
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All of Hayes' stats seem to be great but he doesn't translate them to actual elite production. Will a high exit-velo guy with middling outcomes become a great hitter? Certainly I like his odds better than a bloop/contact artist but it isn't automatic.

In the end I'm okay if this is the version of Hayes we get going forward. The glove and speed/baserunning give him tremendous value. I wasn't expecting much better than this and I'm glad that he can now pull the ball again sometimes.

My issue isn't with Hayes but rather that now we've seen...like, 7, of our upper minors hitting crew at the major league level and the only ones who have helped their stock at all are Suwinski and Marcano. If we go blank or this crew basically turns into 0-1.5WAR players (e.g, Newman), we need to hit on ALL the bluechippers and frankly I doubt that happens.
 
DocEmrickSkitters said:
All of Hayes' stats seem to be great but he doesn't translate them to actual elite production. Will a high exit-velo guy with middling outcomes become a great hitter? Certainly I like his odds better than a bloop/contact artist but it isn't automatic.

In the end I'm okay if this is the version of Hayes we get going forward. The glove and speed/baserunning give him tremendous value. I wasn't expecting much better than this and I'm glad that he can now pull the ball again sometimes.

My issue isn't with Hayes but rather that now we've seen...like, 7, of our upper minors hitting crew at the major league level and the only ones who have helped their stock at all are Suwinski and Marcano. If we go blank or this crew basically turns into 0-1.5WAR players (e.g, Newman), we need to hit on ALL the bluechippers and frankly I doubt that happens.
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It's because we're looking at a 57 game sample size when luck or cold or hot streaks can dramatically skew numbers.

Let's look at Hayes' numbers from last year again, but look at the results of those at bats. Despite the batted ball data being clearly worse last year than this year, Hayes still had a better HR% (1.5% last year to 0.8% this year) and an equal xBH% (7.1% last year and 7.0% this year). That's not him hitting for more power last year, that's him getting substantially better luck last year.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
It's because we're looking at a 57 game sample size when luck or cold or hot streaks can dramatically skew numbers.

Let's look at Hayes' numbers from last year again, but look at the results of those at bats. Despite the batted ball data being clearly worse last year than this year, Hayes still had a better HR% (1.5% last year to 0.8% this year) and an equal xBH% (7.1% last year and 7.0% this year). That's not him hitting for more power last year, that's him getting substantially better luck last year.
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I get what you're saying but at this point I don't see Hayes as a true talent .800-.850 OPS guy. He doesn't get cheated out there. I see him as a middling to slightly above-average hitter that maybe has upside to be that .850 OPS guy.

This could be totally irrational. But I think great hitters can go on runs where they are driving the ball and crucially able to drive the ball out of the ballpark. Hayes puts together a lot of great at bats and ends up hitting the ball hard a lot. But like with hockey advanced stats I don't believe it's as simple as saying that a hitter's outcomes will regress to their hard hit %.

In a way it reminds me of Marte when he was here. Every year people would speculate that Marte had some extra gear but every year Marte was extremely consistent.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Let's compare Hayes' actual plate data instead of just looking at slugging%:

-Average exit velocity: 91.6 MPH this year (34th in MLB), 90.2 MPH last year (69th in MLB)
-Hard hit ball%: 49.1% this year (27th in MLB), 45.8% last year (57th in MLB)
-Sweet spot%: 33.5% this year (137th in MLB), 27.4% last year (226th in MLB)
-Average distance: 158 ft last year (169th in MLB), 135 ft last year (223rd in MLB)
-Barrels per plate appearance %: 4.5% this year (169th in MLB), 3.5% last year (186th last year)

But yes, his 2021 and 2022 are identical in terms of power because his f***ing slugging% is the same.

In reality, Hayes is hitting the ball hard consistently this year. He's not hitting homeruns because of a bad launch angle, but he's peppering balls way harder than he did last year. Going forward, Hayes is going to be about a .280 hitter with an OPS a bit below .800, with him maybe having a season or two of above an .800 OPS.

I find it bizarre that people want to shit on Hayes when he has 2.7 WAR in 57 games this year. He's on track for 7.7 WAR over a 162 game season and he has already eclipsed his WAR from last year in like 40 fewer games.
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You’re seriously arguing that exit velocity that is 1.4 mph higher this year than last is clear and convincing evidence that he was hurt last year and is really just awesome and apparently unlucky or something? Ok.

It’s truly amazing that anyone who says anything other than that Hayes is Juan Soto gets ripped for “shitting” on him and castigated by the fanboys. He’s a good player. He’s also not a star no matter how much you want to pretend he is. If you’re not slugging over .400 as a corner IF you’re not really helping the team that much offensively. Good he’s elite defensively because at the plate he’s Joe Randa Lite.
 
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Hayes' WAR is high because he generally hits for a good avg. and is a very good defender. He hits the ball hard but lacks the launch angle to make himself more useful than a slapper who will sometimes eek out a triple. He isn't a star because he can't seem to convert his latent power into realized.
 
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