OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Gallatin]

Priester a #3. Way to move the goalposts.

Which goalposts?

 

[Gallatin]

Gorski is hammering the ball in Altoona. Hit his 21st homer earlier and just cleared the loaded bases with a laser double. He's 24 so I'm tempering expectations but he's showing elite pop.

He's got a shot for sure. One of the big surprises in the system this year, I didn't think he was a legit prospect after last season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You’re seriously arguing that exit velocity that is 1.4 mph higher this year than last is clear and convincing evidence that he was hurt last year and is really just awesome and apparently unlucky or something? Ok.

It’s truly amazing that anyone who says anything other than that Hayes is Juan Soto gets ripped for “shitting” on him and castigated by the fanboys. He’s a good player. He’s also not a star no matter how much you want to pretend he is. If you’re not slugging over .400 as a corner IF you’re not really helping the team that much offensively. Good he’s elite defensively because at the plate he’s Joe Randa Lite.

Please point out a single example of anyone saying Hayes is Juan Soto. Literally one.

You seem incapable of having actual discussions here so I'm not going to bother with you. Your entire analysis seems to be looking at basic stats and using strawman arguments.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hayes' WAR is high because he generally hits for a good avg. and is a very good defender. He hits the ball hard but lacks the launch angle to make himself more useful than a slapper who will sometimes eek out a triple. He isn't a star because he can't seem to convert his latent power into realized.

This is right and exactly what I said. I'm just annoyed when people come in here and say stupid shit like "if you don't say Hayes is Juan Soto, you get attacked by the fanboys", when their analysis is surface level at best and trolling at worst.

 

[MrBrightside]

Please point out a single example of anyone saying Hayes is Juan Soto. Literally one.

You seem incapable of having actual discussions here so I'm not going to bother with you. Your entire analysis seems to be looking at basic stats and using strawman arguments.

Then don’t. You just run around calling people insane or stupid because they don’t agree with your arguments. Again, if you think an increase of 1.4 mph in exit velocity and 2.5% in hard hit rate is evidence that he was totally injured last year and is just unlucky this year, believe what you want. You also used to die on the hill of Olli Maatta being a top 4 D on a good team so whatever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Then don’t. You just run around calling people insane or stupid because they don’t agree with your arguments. Again, if you think an increase of 1.4 mph in exit velocity and 2.5% in hard hit rate is evidence that he was totally injured last year and is just unlucky this year, believe what you want. You also used to die on the hill of Olli Maatta being a top 4 D on a good team so whatever.

So you're not going to point out an example of someone calling Hayes Juan Soto? You say shit like "fanboys come after me" when you just sound like an uneducated yinzer trying to shit on the Pirates.

 

[MrBrightside]

This is right and exactly what I said. I'm just annoyed when people come in here and say stupid shit like "if you don't say Hayes is Juan Soto, you get attacked by the fanboys", when their analysis is surface level at best and trolling at worst.

Is it as annoying as being called insane because someone compares 2021 and 2022 stats? Just checking.

So you're not going to point out an example of someone calling Hayes Juan Soto? You say shit like "fanboys come after me" when you just sound like an uneducated yinzer trying to shit on the Pirates.

You are absolutely incapable of posting something without insulting the person you disagree with. It’s pretty amazing.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Is it as annoying as being called insane because someone compares 2021 and 2022 stats? Just checking.

If your analysis is as surface level as judging slugging% across two seasons, don't call other people fanboys when they point out your analysis is shallow at best and intentionally disingenuous at worst.

 

[MrBrightside]

If your analysis is as surface level as judging slugging% across two seasons, don't call other people fanboys when they point out your analysis is shallow at best and intentionally disingenuous at worst.

It is being a fanboy to ignore his entire career of work to argue that a 1.4 mph increase in exit velocity proves anything at all, let alone to the point of it being “absolutely insane” to disagree with.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just find it hilarious that in a post where I said "Hayes is going to be about a .280 hitter with an OPS a bit below .800, with him maybe having a season or two of above an .800 OPS" got the response of "It’s truly amazing that anyone who says anything other than that Hayes is Juan Soto gets ripped for “shitting” on him and castigated by the fanboys"

Yes, it's just that people are all Pirates fanboys by saying....Hayes will likely end up being around a .800 OPS hitter going forward. Damn, what fanboys!

 

[Empoleon8771]

It is being a fanboy to ignore his entire career of work to argue that a 1.4 mph increase in exit velocity proves anything at all, let alone to the point of it being “absolutely insane” to disagree with.

So what I have provided:

-Batted ball data showing that Hayes is hitting the hall consistently harder than last year, and is hitting the ball as hard as guys like Trout and Donaldson
-Hayes having the 32nd highest oWAR in the NL this year at 1.3 oWAR in 57 games, compared to 127th last year with a 0.7 oWAR in 96 games

What you have provided:

-"HAYES SUCKS BECAUSE FANBOYS OVERRATE HIM!"
-"HAYES IS THE EXACT SAME AS HE WAS LAST YEAR BECASE HIS SLUGGING% IS THE SAME!!"

Yeah, I'm just being a fanboy and you're just totally enlightened. That is definitely the case.

 

[MrBrightside]

I just find it hilarious that in a post where I said "Hayes is going to be about a .280 hitter with an OPS a bit below .800, with him maybe having a season or two of above an .800 OPS" got the response of "It’s truly amazing that anyone who says anything other than that Hayes is Juan Soto gets ripped for “shitting” on him and castigated by the fanboys"

Yes, it's just that people are all Pirates fanboys by saying....Hayes will likely end up being around a .800 OPS hitter going forward. Damn, what fanboys!

What is the basis for that assumption? He didn’t do it in the minors. He hasn’t been close to that in 2021 or 2022. Literally the only time in his life he’s been a hitter anywhere near a .800 OPS was for 24 games in 2020. So yes, just assuming that is where he will end up is extreme optimism.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What is the basis for that assumption? He didn’t do it in the minors. He hasn’t been close to that in 2021 or 2022. Literally the only time in his life he’s been a hitter anywhere near a .800 OPS was for 24 games in 2020. So yes, just assuming that is where he will end up is extreme optimism.

He OPS'ed .819 in AA in 2018 and .751 in AAA in 2019, and was slugging .444 and .415 in those two years respectively. He's OPSing .727 this year while getting much worse batted ball luck than he got last year.

I have no idea why you're acting like Hayes OPSing something in the .775-.800 range going forward is this crazy sort of expectation for him.

 

[MrBrightside]

He OPS'ed .819 in AA in 2018 and .751 in AAA in 2019. He's OPSing .727 this year while getting much worse batted ball luck than he got last year.

His career OPS in the minors was .745. Assuming that he will immediately improve on that to .800+ at the majors when he has not done that outside three weeks in 2020 and chalking it up as “bad luck” is so Piratey.

 

[Empoleon8771]

His career OPS in the minors was .745. Assuming that he will immediately improve on that to .800+ at the majors when he has not done that outside three weeks in 2020 and chalking it up as “bad luck” is so Piratey.

And his career OPS between AA and AAA in the minors was .789, which is right around that "slightly less than a .800 OPS" that I was referring to.

He needs to have an OBP of around .350 and a slugging% of around .425 to hit a .775 OPS. Hayes currently has an OBP of .354 and slugged .434 between AA and AAA in 2018 and 2019.

 

[MrBrightside]

And his career OPS between AA and AAA in the minors was .789, which is right around that "slightly less than a .800 OPS" that I was referring to.

He needs to have an OBP of around .350 and a slugging% of around .425 to hit a .775 OPS. Hayes currently has an OBP of .354 and slugged .434 between AA and AAA in 2018 and 2019.

I have to commend you. That’s the most impressive display of cherry picking data I’ve ever seen. Well done.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have to commend you. That’s the most impressive display of cherry picking data I’ve ever seen. Well done.

So it's cherrypicking data to post his stats from his last 2 years in the minors and the two highest levels in the minors and based your expectations for him in the MLB on those?

Why does what Hayes did in 2015 in rookie league have anything to do with what his expectations will be in the MLB in 2022?

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

If you go to a game, the outfield plays Hayes as if there is a very slim chance he will pull the ball in the air.

He himself has recognized his lack of power production.

My view is that he is aware of a weakness so I look forward to see how he progresses next year if he uses the offseason to rework his mechanics to produce more fly balls to his pull field.

Best case scenario is he adds launch angle to his contact skills and has a renaissance at the plate a'la Daniel Murphy or Joey Bats.

The first step is that he needs to learn to turn on inside pitches consistently, because you are not going to slug in this league if the pitchers can get in on your hands at will.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Which goalposts?

Come on. You were talking about him as an Ace or TOR guy.

You then saying you're "ride or die" that he's a #3 isn't some kind of hot take. Many of us could see Priester making it. The question is whether he's going to be a great pitcher or as effective as a back-of-rotation guy.

And his career OPS between AA and AAA in the minors was .789, which is right around that "slightly less than a .800 OPS" that I was referring to.

He needs to have an OBP of around .350 and a slugging% of around .425 to hit a .775 OPS. Hayes currently has an OBP of .354 and slugged .434 between AA and AAA in 2018 and 2019.

Didn't you say earlier in this thread that he's a swing adjustment away from an .850 OPS. Did I hallucinate this or was it a shadow edit?

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you go to a game, the outfield plays Hayes as if there is a very slim chance he will pull the ball in the air.

He himself has recognized his lack of power production.

My view is that he is aware of a weakness so I look forward to see how he progresses next year if he uses the offseason to rework his mechanics to produce more fly balls to his pull field.

Best case scenario is he adds launch angle to his contact skills and has a renaissance at the plate a'la Daniel Murphy or Joey Bats.

The first step is that he needs to learn to turn on inside pitches consistently, because you are not going to slug in this league if the pitchers can get in on your hands at will.

Yeah this is spot on. Hayes' issue isn't that he can't hit the ball hard, it's that his approach to his at bats yield balls that don't tend to lead to power hitting results.

He hits the ball hard and hits a lot of line drives, but he also pushes the ball way too much. He only pulls the ball 13.3% and goes opposite field 24.8%, that's not going to yield good power results. That's not an issue of a lack of talent, that's a bad approach problem. That's the kind of approach guys without power should be going for.

Didn't you say earlier in this thread that he's a swing adjustment away from an .850 OPS. Did I hallucinate this or was it a shadow edit?

Yeah I did, what I mean by that is that he needs to convert his raw power he has into actual results power by changing his batting approach. Like I said above, his issue is that he pushes the ball way too much and doesn't pull the ball enough to yield good power. He has the hitting approach of a weak contact guy when he hits the ball hard enough to be at least a doubles machine.

If he takes the power he has and focuses on pulling the ball more and trying to launch the ball more, that profile would yield a substantially higher OPS. His issue is that he's hitting a ton of hard hit singles to the opposite field and his batting strategy is to basically do that.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If you go to a game, the outfield plays Hayes as if there is a very slim chance he will pull the ball in the air.

He himself has recognized his lack of power production.

My view is that he is aware of a weakness so I look forward to see how he progresses next year if he uses the offseason to rework his mechanics to produce more fly balls to his pull field.

Best case scenario is he adds launch angle to his contact skills and has a renaissance at the plate a'la Daniel Murphy or Joey Bats.

The first step is that he needs to learn to turn on inside pitches consistently, because you are not going to slug in this league if the pitchers can get in on your hands at will.

This is purely eye test but pulling the ball in the air just looks unnatural to him and his swing. It's like a golfer who can only work the ball one way on a hole that doesn't fit that shot shape. It doesn't work.

A lot of hitters are this way with being able to go the other way. Hence why shifting is so prominent. Hayes has the reverse situation where there's a mechanical or mental hole in terms of lifting the ball to left.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'd love to see Hayes hitting off a tee with the ball middle-in and trying to hit it out to left of the 389 sign in left-center. Like if Pirates social media could like, release a video of him doing that it would be reassuring lol.

 

[MrBrightside]

The idea that a hitter at age 25 in his 8th professional season will suddenly change his approach to simultaneously improve his weaknesses while not losing any of his strengths would be pretty unprecedented in the sport. Trying to convert someone who, while not an elite hitter, is a good major league hitter into something he's not now and never has been is a really dangerous plan that could undermine what he does right.

At age 25.5, after 2754 professional plate appearances, Hayes has hit 40 HR and has a SLG% of .401 and a .755 OPS. I'd be willing to bet that there aren't 5 guys in the history of the majors who have that track record that suddenly morphed into an .800-.850 OPS hitter unless they are getting on base 38-42% of the time. He very likely is what he is - an excellent defensive 3B who is a decent hitter. That's plenty valuable. It's just not a star.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The idea that a hitter at age 25 in his 8th professional season will suddenly change his approach to simultaneously improve his weaknesses while not losing any of his strengths would be pretty unprecedented in the sport. Trying to convert someone who, while not an elite hitter, is a good major league hitter into something he's not now and never has been is a really dangerous plan that could undermine what he does right.

At age 25.5, after 2754 professional plate appearances, Hayes has hit 40 HR and has a SLG% of .401 and a .755 OPS. I'd be willing to bet that there aren't 5 guys in the history of the majors who have that track record that suddenly morphed into an .800-.850 OPS hitter unless they are getting on base 38-42% of the time. He very likely is what he is - an excellent defensive 3B who is a decent hitter. That's plenty valuable. It's just not a star.

Eduardo Escobar had a career .677 OPS in the minors and had a .679 OPS through his age 27 season in the majors. He has been a .779 OPS hitter since then. His slugging% went from .381 from 2011-2016 to .464 from 2017-2022.

 

[MrBrightside]

Eduardo Escobar had a career .677 OPS in the minors and had a .679 OPS through his age 27 season in the majors. He has been a .779 OPS hitter since then. His slugging% went from .381 from 2011-2016 to .464 from 2017-2022.

Ok. Now do the 47848 guys who didn’t completely change their approach and results 8 years into their professional career.

Peguero starting at SS. So much for the narrative he was recalled yesterday because he was physically closer to Pittsburgh than Cruz was.