A couple of comments:
1. Lumping in his 2021 with his 2022, when his 2021 was plagued with wrist injuries that caused him to underperform, is insanely disingenuous.
2. I don't think it's fair to say that Hayes "lacks pop". He's 26th in the MLB in hard hit ball % this year according to Baseball Savant. His average exit velocity is 91.5 MPH, which is 35th and right around where guys like Trout, Olson and Donaldson are at.
3. What Hayes lacks is an exit velocity that yields homeruns. Hayes' launch angle is 7.9 degrees, which is the 42nd lowest. He hits the ball hard and often, he usually just hits line drives. This relates to his barreled balls rates being so bad, he hits the ball hard enough but doesn't get the launch angle needed.
In reality, Hayes is an above average contact hitter who hits the ball hard, but lacks the appropriate swing to get HRs out of doubles. He is a swing adjustment away from being a .850 OPS guy, it's just a question of whether he's capable of doing that.