OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[dogthateats]

LFG! RTJR!

 

[wheelz87]

Suwinski!!

 

[Gallatin]

I knew it!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Yes!!!!!!!!

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Raise it!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Suwinski seems to have a great knack for grinding the ABs out and timing up a pitcher's pitch. Really nice vs. so-so closers (no disrespect to Melancon at this point).

Great win!

 

[Gallatin]

Suwinski seems to have a great knack for grinding the ABs out and timing up a pitcher's pitch. Really nice vs. so-so closers (no disrespect to Melancon at this point).

Great win!

I've just now concluded he's a Player, and is going to be a valuable piece for us. With that defense, if he can simply ops .800 the dude's gonna create value. And based on the quality of the AB's I've been seeing from him in key moments, I think you can expect that from him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

As an addendum, also a case in point for not immediately pivoting to Swaggerty. Suwinski has come on strong lately, and Mitchell chipped in today with a nice double. If you call up Swaggerty, one of them basically has to go. Personally, I still likely Swaggerty the most in terms of his tools package, but let it ride for a little while. Mitchell has had ups and downs, but he earned an opportunity and has played just 10 games or so. It wouldn't make sense to send him back so soon after adding him to the 40-man.

I think the next move simply has to be Cruz, but I'd be floored if it happens until we've "safely" navigated Super Two. His wRC+ has ticked up significantly and from the eye test he still looks good, but he's not over the top forcing it. I think it's a good bet that if he continues to perform well, he'll get the nod for the homestand in a little over a week and a half. Only potential stumbling block would be Newman getting healthy first.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bittersweet to get it off Melancon, one of the greatest Pirates of the Huntington era.

But hell. I love it.

And we should get Zach Davies in the offseason.

 

[dogthateats]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Rocker's first Indy ball game is tonight. I think he's probably a non-factor for us. Our second pick is fairly high, but my sense is that Rocker is either going to really show off good stuff and get taken in the back 2/3rds of the first, or it's anyone's guess and he wouldn't be a target. I guess medicals will obviously factor into the equation as well.

 

[ChaosAgent]

At what point does this Bro Blakey Sabol become an option at catcher? Because Perez f*****g sucks at hitting and this dude is hitting everything in sight.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Suwinski is quickly locking his place in Pittsburgh, between his 3 hit game yesterday and his walk off HR today.

The defense is solid and he brings some power to the table, plus he was really good at taking walks in the minors. If he starts walking at a rate he did in the minors, you're looking at a guy with an above average OPS, good power and good defense in RF. He was at an OPS+ of 84 before today's game, just getting the walk rate up alone shoots that up to over 100.

He'll never hit for average, but if he's hitting .230 with an OPS of .750, no one is going to give a shit about his average.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Rocker's first Indy ball game is tonight. I think he's probably a non-factor for us. Our second pick is fairly high, but my sense is that Rocker is either going to really show off good stuff and get taken in the back 2/3rds of the first, or it's anyone's guess and he wouldn't be a target. I guess medicals will obviously factor into the equation as well.

The dream, if he's healthy, is Rocker w/ the comp pick. Obviously signability comes into play, given his agent, and resume. If he dominates these couple of starts in Indy ball, and is throwing mid-upper 90's gas like he did at his peak, then yeah, he probably is a safe bet to go in round 1, but it will really come down to what the MRI's and medical opinions are.

I think he's worth the risk as he was clearly pitching hurt the back half of last year, and at his best, is an easy front of the rotation anchor.

We'll see, but I generally agree, the odds of him being there at 36 are pretty slim.

If you have him targeted as a potential pick at 36, I definitely think you have to go underslot at 4, which brings into play someone like Cam Collier, which I wouldn't mind all that much, as a swing for the fences pick. That kid is every bit the freak Elijah Green is, from a size/power/hitting standpoint, though Green is definitely a better overall runner/defender certainly. It's definitely a risk taking a 17 year old, but he hammered JC ball and that's pretty impressive for a kid who was probably the youngest player in the league. Will be interesting to see how he fares on the Cape, with a wood bat. He rakes there and he might be in play at 4 for a pretty hefty savings.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Cruz HRs to leadoff the game for Indy. Curveball that might have hung up a little bit, but was down and away, and he put only a so so swing on it and it flew out to the opposite field. He's so strong it's ridiculous.

I think it's well-passed time, but I'd be floored if we called him up for the road trip. If I understand the timing issues right, we're exactly in the gray area for Super Two, whereas waiting another 1.5 weeks effectively should put him clear of it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Wow, pretty surprising, but exciting to see. Not sure I see the ABs as things currently stand, but maybe there's an injury we don't know about, or we're going to pull the plug on Mitchell quickly.

 

[ImporterExporter]

So Rocker looked good, sans a 2 run homer. Didn't walk anyone and struck out 6, topping out at 99!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Here's the Cruz video

 

[ImporterExporter]

Wow, pretty surprising, but exciting to see. Not sure I see the ABs as things currently stand, but maybe there's an injury we don't know about, or we're going to pull the plug on Mitchell quickly.

He's on a tear, no doubt about it. I'm guessing Gamel is probably out longer term now and they want to rotate LF/RF. Honestly you can get Swags in LF and keep Suwinksi/Mitchell deployed in RF.

I'd rather not see Mitchell go down so quickly as he's had some good swings and played solidly in right, but at the same time, you have to think Suwinski is going to get more starts than not in right, and you're not bringing up Swaggerty to sit him. If the plan is for Mitchell to ride the bench, I'd rather him just go back to Indy and continue working on hitting.

Honestly, I bet Castro is the victim. Shelton was NOT happy w/him in the post game presser and Marcano can play 2B when he's starting. Castillo is your "every day" SS right now, though we have a few options to shift there in a pinch.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think something will have to give for sure, and I agree that it's better for Mitchell to play. I also had the thought that it's possible someone else got hurt and we don't know yet. It's also possible that we want Castro to get more regular ABs, which will open up infield time for Marcano.

With Mitchell, I think part of it is the 40-man roster spot, but he's now not in much danger there. Kranick can go on the 60-man at some point, and the only injured player who is on the 60-man that might come back is Allen.

Swaggerty definitely should be playing as much as possible, and he's high profile enough that I doubt we'd bring him up for a part time role. It might also be a way to try and strike while the iron is hot and there's enough opportunity to be had. Maybe Gamel will be hurt for longer, but it could also be the case that he'll be back within a few weeks, and we want to give Swaggerty some run and see what happens.

Lots of possibilities and caveats, but he's an exciting player and there's no sense speculating too much.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think the easy lineup to trot out now that Swaggs is coming up:

1. Hayes - 3B
2. Reynolds - CF
3. Suwinksi - RF
4. Chavis - 1B
5. Vogelbach - DH
6. Swaggerty - LF
7. Marcano - 2B
8. Castillo - SS
9. Catcher

Keep an eye on Tyler Samaniego. Big, power lefty out of the pen, drafted late out of South Alabama last year by Cherington. Cherington has brought in some lefties the past 2 years, which is something I spoke about often throughout Huntington's tenure. This kid has been lights out since turning pro. How about 42 K's in just 27 innings, along with a .074 WHIP and .078 BAA. He's literally given up 7 hits in 27 innings. Recently promoted to AA, he's been perfect through 3 innings there.

Nick Garcia (3rd round pick in 2020) had a real solid outing today in Greensboro as well.

Po Chen in Florida was lights out.

Gorski continues to hit well in AA. We'll have to see how he fares in the power department after a Ruthian like 1st 7-8 weeks in NC. Like Fraizer, we need to be cautious w/these 23/24 year olds hammering lower minor pitching.

I don't really think Super 2 is an issue at this point. If you look at the list of rookies who've already played significant innings. Cruz would basically have to play every day (he won't) to slide into that status or go nuclear from day 1 and win ROTY, which is unlikely and might not matter given there are a few big names already producing in the NL.

I think Cruz is the the obvious call up at this point now, if nothing more than getting the potential of his bat/speed into the lineup.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Castro was demoted to make a spot for Swaggerty, which isn't all that surprising to me. Castro has been a bit of a mess in the majors this year.

 

[Gallatin]

The dream, if he's healthy, is Rocker w/ the comp pick. Obviously signability comes into play, given his agent, and resume. If he dominates these couple of starts in Indy ball, and is throwing mid-upper 90's gas like he did at his peak, then yeah, he probably is a safe bet to go in round 1, but it will really come down to what the MRI's and medical opinions are.

I think he's worth the risk as he was clearly pitching hurt the back half of last year, and at his best, is an easy front of the rotation anchor.

We'll see, but I generally agree, the odds of him being there at 36 are pretty slim.

If you have him targeted as a potential pick at 36, I definitely think you have to go underslot at 4, which brings into play someone like Cam Collier, which I wouldn't mind all that much, as a swing for the fences pick. That kid is every bit the freak Elijah Green is, from a size/power/hitting standpoint, though Green is definitely a better overall runner/defender certainly. It's definitely a risk taking a 17 year old, but he hammered JC ball and that's pretty impressive for a kid who was probably the youngest player in the league. Will be interesting to see how he fares on the Cape, with a wood bat. He rakes there and he might be in play at 4 for a pretty hefty savings.

Honestly - I've never known more about a College pitching prospect as I did with Kumar last Summer - and I seriously questioned the Fastball. So no thanks on Rocker @ 36. Dude should have just taken the Tommy John. He's still damaged goods IMO, and he still never proved his FB was legit.

And why in the world would he have any negotiating power at all? If you take him @ say 44 or 83, you pay him slot or under because he has few options, and 0 negotiating power. He's just a big name with a lot of hype from being The Freshman Sensation.

I do like the heart and brain though. But has he even lost any weight? Dude clearly has issues there.

 

[Gallatin]

I think the easy lineup to trot out now that Swaggs is coming up:

1. Hayes - 3B
2. Reynolds - CF
3. Suwinksi - RF
4. Chavis - 1B
5. Vogelbach - DH
6. Swaggerty - LF
7. Marcano - 2B
8. Castillo - SS
9. Catcher

Keep an eye on Tyler Samaniego. Big, power lefty out of the pen, drafted late out of South Alabama last year by Cherington. Cherington has brought in some lefties the past 2 years, which is something I spoke about often throughout Huntington's tenure. This kid has been lights out since turning pro. How about 42 K's in just 27 innings, along with a .074 WHIP and .078 BAA. He's literally given up 7 hits in 27 innings. Recently promoted to AA, he's been perfect through 3 innings there.

Nick Garcia (3rd round pick in 2020) had a real solid outing today in Greensboro as well.

Po Chen in Florida was lights out.

Gorski continues to hit well in AA. We'll have to see how he fares in the power department after a Ruthian like 1st 7-8 weeks in NC. Like Fraizer, we need to be cautious w/these 23/24 year olds hammering lower minor pitching.

I don't really think Super 2 is an issue at this point. If you look at the list of rookies who've already played significant innings. Cruz would basically have to play every day (he won't) to slide into that status or go nuclear from day 1 and win ROTY, which is unlikely and might not matter given there are a few big names already producing in the NL.

I think Cruz is the the obvious call up at this point now, if nothing more than getting the potential of his bat/speed into the lineup.

• Chen last night — 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K

Po-Yu Chen: RHP 6'2" 190lbs 10/2/21

Fangraphs' believe this kid has potential for above average control, they have him scouted at a Command FV60. This is a key thing for Po-Yu -if he really does develop command better than 45 - look out. The rest of it is there IMO.

He's still such a work in progress, the fastballs' improving after April problems (he tried leaning on it early, and it was a no-go). He's since reworked them, and is throwing less often with greater success. Right now Chen's relying on the Sinker, which averages close to 92mph.

If you look at some of the curveballs he's throwing lately - those are very very impressive. He's been running his 78mph CB up over 2900rpm in games recently, some have been clocked over 70 inches of vertical break!

The Splitter has a swinging strike rate over 50% on the season. His other pitches have the high enough FV's that he might keep 5 - 6, especially if the command comes around.

Chen is quite the unfinished product, still needs to add more muscle, still needs to figure out his repertoire. But it's another high ceiling Pitcher. High because of his ability to manipulate spin in a variety of ways.

Interestingly - Po-Yu appears to be working towards having two different arm tunnels from which he can throw 2-3 pitches each. Both of his tunnel options have at least 1 potential + pitch for him to work off.

Upper Arm Tunnel:
4-Seamer, Curveball, Cutter:
Lower Arm Tunnel:
Sinker, Splitter, Slider:

What we got here IMO is your classic Asian RHP that can really spin it. He's going to end up utilizing a bunch of different pitches off his average fastballs, making them not so average afterall. This is the kind of player when fully developed that's likely going to have a FB usage in the 30-40% range, and a velocity around 93-94. I could see Chen topping out as a 2 or a 3, the ceilings' legit IMO, but not Contrares-good.

If he stays healthy and on the current development track, we should see this guy sometime in 24.

 

[Gallatin]

Yeah, I think something will have to give for sure, and I agree that it's better for Mitchell to play. I also had the thought that it's possible someone else got hurt and we don't know yet. It's also possible that we want Castro to get more regular ABs, which will open up infield time for Marcano.

With Mitchell, I think part of it is the 40-man roster spot, but he's now not in much danger there. Kranick can go on the 60-man at some point, and the only injured player who is on the 60-man that might come back is Allen.

Swaggerty definitely should be playing as much as possible, and he's high profile enough that I doubt we'd bring him up for a part time role. It might also be a way to try and strike while the iron is hot and there's enough opportunity to be had. Maybe Gamel will be hurt for longer, but it could also be the case that he'll be back within a few weeks, and we want to give Swaggerty some run and see what happens.

Lots of possibilities and caveats, but he's an exciting player and there's no sense speculating too much.

I've been developing the sense that this management team likes to have their prospects get a taste - once they've shown something in AA and are currently hot.

And I got to admit I like it. Sure - bring a guy up when he's hot, he's likely to have success early, and then when he falls off you can send him back. Then he has a clearer picture of what to work on in order to be an MLB starter.

I'm hopeful this is a Bucs Developmental Strategy moving forward.