OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I request to be teleported to 40 years in the future in which Pittsburgh, Chicago, St. Louis and Cincinatti aren't cold in April and October.

There are a lot of great major leaguers who never hit their bodyweight in april. A couple of years ago, Jose Ramirez couldn't hit off a tee, and he is one of the best hitters on planet earth.

All I'm saying is that 102 at bats is a totally insufficient sample to be drawing meaningful conclusions, good or bad.

I can also name 100 awful players who have had a great 100 at bats.
 
Cruz hammered the ball in ST, the hype was furious, and he was expecting to be up on opening day, zero doubt about it. Gets sent down and has been shit all year to this point, against inferior pitching. Explain how that makes sense, other than his head isn't in the right place.

There is no excuse for his performance against AAA pitching. And the comedy of errors in the field gets glossed over, for reasons I can't f***ing comprehend, all the while clamoring for him to be up, playing SS regularly, when he can't even do it against players who aren't MLB quality.

This is the Polanco experience, all over again. Cruz has a ridiculous ceiling, but people have lost sight that his floor is very, very low as well. I'm going to point that out as it clearly needs to be.

The majority of takes on this board, for a team operating with a 30 million dollar payroll suck as well. It's like people believe Cherington is dropping the ball while being able to spend upwards of 100 million on the ML roster.

Be better or be called out.
 
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There are a lot of great major leaguers who never hit their bodyweight in april. A couple of years ago, Jose Ramirez couldn't hit off a tee, and he is one of the best hitters on planet earth.

All I'm saying is that 102 at bats is a totally insufficient sample to be drawing meaningful conclusions, good or bad.

I can also name 100 awful players who have had a great 100 at bats.

True enough.

But with Cruz there is enough of a track record of him not being a great hitter in spots to where it gets worrying. He doesn't really have the track record of production to suggest that he'll be a ++ bat as an outfielder. This includes his stints in the DWL - yes I know about the car crash. And we are justifiably on the fence about him as a shortstop. Seems like he can pick it but he struggles with throwing consistency.

There's a lot of outcomes where he's a hulking, slugging lefty corner outfielder with a huge strikeout problem. And in my small sample size of watching him at the end of last year, I'd suggest that major league lefties could eat him alive. Polanco hit lefties well in the minors but got destroyed up here. I remember some ABs against lefties in that series that weren't even competitive.
 
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The majority of takes on this board, for a team operating with a 30 million dollar payroll suck as well. It's like people believe Cherington is dropping the ball while being able to spend upwards of 100 million on the ML roster.

Be better or be called out.
I'll continue to not slurp Cherington just cause he's good at tanking, as the vast majority of GMs are.

I'll be appreciative that we have a good tanking GM who has a knack for scouring teams' 10-30 ranked prospects and picking breakout guys. But I'll be skeptical that he can build playoff winners, thanks.
 
I don't think anyone is doubting Cruz's upside or saying he sucks because of his performance in AAA this year, people are just saying that they shouldn't call him up yet until he rights the ship.

Unless he starts playing well, I don't see a justification to call him up prior to the super-two deadline. I'd call him up at that point because there really isn't a reason to keep him down after, but he's not moving the needle nearly enough to justify calling him up before the super-two deadline.
 
I don't think anyone is doubting Cruz's upside or saying he sucks because of his performance in AAA this year, people are just saying that they shouldn't call him up yet until he rights the ship.

Unless he starts playing well, I don't see a justification to call him up prior to the super-two deadline. I'd call him up at that point because there really isn't a reason to keep him down after, but he's not moving the needle nearly enough to justify calling him up before the super-two deadline.

I wouldn't call him up then either. Is he better than Gamel, Suwinski, Castro or Castillo? Even Newman? Maybe if/when we get a return for Gamel/Newman this year it would be the right time. Or if he starts to hit the cover off the ball.

Also...it would send a terrible message all around if we just called him up when he was treading water. To the league/MLBPA, it would be admitting to service-time manipulation. What would it say to the likes of Bae, Smith-Njigba, Martin, Mitchell, if they were comfortably out-hitting him?
 
I'll continue to not slurp Cherington just cause he's good at tanking, as the vast majority of GMs are.

I'll be appreciative that we have a good tanking GM who has a knack for scouring teams' 10-30 ranked prospects and picking breakout guys. But I'll be skeptical that he can build playoff winners, thanks.

This is year 3. He's operating with a payroll that numerous stars make in a single year. The idea that he should already have this team winning 80-90 games is absurd. He's not being given any MONEY to bring in MLB ready talent, ie FA's. So bashing him because the ML team isn't winning more games than losing is the literal definition of illogical, and yet there have been a handful of above replacement level performers making almost the league minimum, helping us get out of the basement, which is where we were, prior to this year. Quintana, for the cost relative to valuation (on field performance) is as good as anyone Huntington signed for 4-6x the amount.

He has to draft, sign international players, and trade veterans for prospects given the owner isn't allowing spending to increase.

One look at the system below the ML level should have people at least somewhat optimistic.

Until Nutting gives him money to spend on the ML roster, Cherington cannot be pointed to as the culprit for failure. Talk to me in 2-3 years when the guys he drafted/traded for are ML ready (or not). That's when you evaluate the man. Or, in an alternate reality, when Nutting suddenly doubles/triples the payroll, which is what Huntington had for a large portion of his tenure in Pittsburgh. Fact.

I'm not asking you or anyone else to slurp on Cherington. I'm asking people to use sensible logic when evaluating a franchise.
 
This is year 3. He's operating with a payroll that numerous stars make in a single year. The idea that he should already have this team winning 80-90 games is absurd. He's not being given any MONEY to bring in MLB ready talent, ie FA's. So bashing him because the ML team isn't winning more games than losing is the literal definition of illogical, and yet there have been a handful of above replacement level performers making almost the league minimum, helping us get out of the basement, which is where we were, prior to this year. Quintana, for the cost relative to valuation (on field performance) is as good as anyone Huntington signed for 4-6x the amount.

He has to draft, sign international players, and trade veterans for prospects given the owner isn't allowing spending to increase.

One look at the system below the ML level should have people at least somewhat optimistic.

Until Nutting gives him money to spend on the ML roster, Cherington cannot be pointed to as the culprit for failure. Talk to me in 2-3 years when the guys he drafted/traded for are ML ready (or not). That's when you evaluate the man. Or, in an alternate reality, when Nutting suddenly doubles/triples the payroll, which is what Huntington had for a large portion of his tenure in Pittsburgh. Fact.

I'm not asking you or anyone else to slurp on Cherington. I'm asking people to use sensible logic when evaluating a franchise.

The Pirates got Liriano for $7M. They extended him for more but when Huntington got him it was for much less. Huntington also got Kang internationally for very little and he was a 5WAR player in 2015.

When Cherington was hired, what everyone said is "great developmental guy, won the WS but otherwise couldn't hack it in Boston." Up until this year, his ML player evaluation hasn't been great. Yes it's on a budget. It wasn't on a budget in Boston and it still wasn't good. 3/4 Losing Seasons on a Top 5 payroll. Last I checked it was higher than Huntington's, no?

Huntington's team justified increasing the payroll through progressively greater performance, from 2010-2013. I'm more optimistic on Cherington now than I was before.
 

The Pirates got Liriano for $7M. They extended him for more but when Huntington got him it was for much less. Huntington also got Kang internationally for very little and he was a 5WAR player in 2015.

When Cherington was hired, what everyone said is "great developmental guy, won the WS but otherwise couldn't hack it in Boston." Up until this year, his ML player evaluation hasn't been great. Yes it's on a budget. It wasn't on a budget in Boston and it still wasn't good. 3/4 Losing Seasons on a Top 5 payroll. Last I checked it was higher than Huntington's, no?

Huntington's team justified increasing the payroll through progressively greater performance, from 2010-2013. I'm more optimistic on Cherington now than I was before.

Well, there is a big difference in 7 million and 2, no?

I mean, when that's the about biggest contract you've been able to hand out at the ML level, you can't reasonably expect more than a few guys to be multiple WAR players, when a single WAR is worth today, what 5-7 million per year, depending on position?

Yes, the bulk of the ML signings have not worked out. Yes, the bulk of those signings have been for league minimum or barely above that mark. And I have pointed out a handful of players who have panned out, relative to the price we paid.

And we're winning more games this year, than last. Many of our prospects are doing quite well this year.

Shelton has proven to be a hack and I'm not impressed at all with the new pitching regime as it pertains to starters. So we might not even be in good shape simply because the guy managing the ML roster on gamedays is subpar.

Let's see where we're at when folks like Henry Davis get up. Roansy, Mike Burrows, Peguero, etc, etc. There are plenty of folks doing well this year and I think we can all agree that even Cruz and Gonzo need to suck a lot longer than 5-6 weeks before we write them off.
 
Well, there is a big difference in 7 million and 2, no?

I mean, when that's the about biggest contract you've been able to hand out at the ML level, you can't reasonably expect more than a few guys to be multiple WAR players, when a single WAR is worth today, what 5-7 million per year, depending on position?

It was $3.5M/year. Technically it was supposed to be more but then Liriano got hurt in the process of signing. Huntington stuck with it and landed him regardless.
I really don't think I have to justify how fantastic Huntington's winning streak was at an MLB level for 4 years. People have retconned him into some sort of incompetent because of the Archer debacle and him not knowing that Vazquez was didling teenagers.


Sad to say but this makes me much more optimistic for this series. The Reds are actually coming in hot with Pham and our old friend Colin Moran heating up. Sims was main guy in the bullpen who I thought could actually get people out routinely. Without him I think the Reds will have a fear factor against us even if they jump out to leads.

I see it's 4 righties starting. Hopefully we get 3/4 days of Castro/Castillo.
 
It was $3.5M/year. Technically it was supposed to be more but then Liriano got hurt in the process of signing. Huntington stuck with it and landed him regardless.
I really don't think I have to justify how fantastic Huntington's winning streak was at an MLB level for 4 years. People have retconned him into some sort of incompetent because of the Archer debacle and him not knowing that Vazquez was didling teenagers.


Sad to say but this makes me much more optimistic for this series. The Reds are actually coming in hot with Pham and our old friend Colin Moran heating up. Sims was main guy in the bullpen who I thought could actually get people out routinely. Without him I think the Reds will have a fear factor against us even if they jump out to leads.

I see it's 4 righties starting. Hopefully we get 3/4 days of Castro/Castillo.

Whoa, whoa, whooooa.

Neal Huntington got the job in 2007.

Here are his win totals:

2008 - 67
2009 - 62
2010 - 57
2011- 72
2012 - 79
2013 - 94

This is precisely what I'm talking about around here. Neal Huntington had FIVE CONSECUTIVE LOSING SEASONS as GM and when he did start winning, the payroll was either close to, or just over 100M IIRC.

So please don't talk to me about how great NH was, when it took him that long to win, first of all, and secondly he left this franchise in the same dumpster he inherited when he was finally let go, meaning Cherington had to start from exactly the same spot.

So if we're going to sing the praises of a few winning seasons from NH, you damn well better give Cherington the same length of rope AND a payroll that gets close to 9 figures, before you put him into the trash heap.

It's alarming how much I have to explain what seems like simple logic.
 
Whoa, whoa, whooooa.

Neal Huntington got the job in 2007.

Here are his win totals:

2008 - 67
2009 - 62
2010 - 57
2011- 72
2012 - 79
2013 - 94

This is precisely what I'm talking about around here. Neal Huntington had FIVE CONSECUTIVE LOSING SEASONS as GM and when he did start winning, the payroll was either close to, or just over 100M IIRC.

So please don't talk to me about how great NH was, when it took him that long to win, first of all, and secondly he left this franchise in the same dumpster he inherited when he was finally let go, meaning Cherington had to start from exactly the same spot.

So if we're going to sing the praises of a few winning seasons from NH, you damn well better give Cherington the same length of rope AND a payroll that gets close to 9 figures, before you put him into the trash heap.

It's alarming how much I have to explain what seems like simple logic.

NH won in 1/3rd of his seasons in Pittsburgh. Cherington won in 1/4 of his seasons in Boston. A fact you continue to not address.

He did not leave this organization in the dumpster, at all. He left a bunch of tradeable assets, a budding star in Reynolds, great prospects in Hayes/Cruz/Keller. He had a good 2019 draft. You're talking up prospects like Burrows. Who drafted them?

You really have brainworms about Huntington. He isn't great but he did well here. A B/B+ job but ultimately needed to go. Jury's still out on whether or not Cherington will do better. Thus far he has done a good job on the easy part - bottoming out and starting to build back up. Good returns on most of our main assets, aside from holding onto Bell a year too long. Sometimes the main piece hasn't worked out but the secondary guys have (e.g., Marcano vs. Suwinski in the Frazier trade). His faith in Marin may be starting to bear fruit...the pitching looks much better this year.
 
NH won in 1/3rd of his seasons in Pittsburgh. Cherington won in 1/4 of his seasons in Boston. A fact you continue to not address.

He did not leave this organization in the dumpster, at all. He left a bunch of tradeable assets, a budding star in Reynolds, great prospects in Hayes/Cruz/Keller. He had a good 2019 draft. You're talking up prospects like Burrows. Who drafted them?

You really have brainworms about Huntington. He isn't great but he did well here. A B/B+ job but ultimately needed to go. Jury's still out on whether or not Cherington will do better. Thus far he has done a good job on the easy part - bottoming out and starting to build back up. Good returns on most of our main assets, aside from holding onto Bell a year too long. Sometimes the main piece hasn't worked out but the secondary guys have (e.g., Marcano vs. Suwinski in the Frazier trade). His faith in Marin may be starting to bear fruit...the pitching looks much better this year.

He also won a WS in 2013 w/Boston. Let's gloss over that fact. Or these tidbits:

From December 12, 2005, through January 19, 2006, he served as the Red Sox' co-general manager with Jed Hoyer during Epstein's absence from the team,[6] with club president/CEO Larry Lucchino and veteran former Major League GM Bill Lajoie also playing key roles during that period. After Epstein's return, Cherington became vice president, player personnel, through January 2009, then senior vice president and assistant GM from 2009 through his promotion to general manager after the 2011 season.[5]

Cherington inherited a team that had tumbled out of contention for a division championship or wild card postseason appearance with a disastrous, 7–20 record during September 2011. The slide cost eight-year manager Terry Francona his job and occurred as Epstein was negotiating to join the Chicago Cubs as their president of baseball operations.[7] Cherington's first major assignment after succeeding Epstein was to find a successor to Francona, but his final candidates were rejected by Boston's ownership and CEO Lucchino in favor of former Texas Rangers and New York Mets manager Bobby Valentine[8] — out of the Majors since 2002, although he had managed the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball and served as a television analyst on ESPN since.

How about the 2018 title, which featured a corps of players that were mostly there because of Cherington:

However, Cherington left behind a group of young players (Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, Eduardo Rodríguez, Blake Swihart, Travis Shaw, Henry Owens, Christian Vázquez, and others) as a potential core of their 2016 team.[14] Much of this core that Cherington acquired contributed heavily to the Red Sox's 2018 championship

And guess what? He's here, operating with a payroll that is so utterly pathetic, the fact that we're not in last, is a win.

Some of the regulars here are whining and moaning about the ML roster, which is asinine for numerous reasons.

Huntington didn't win until his 6th year. YEAR 6.

We're in May of year 3 for Cherington and already have at worst a top 5 minor league system in baseball, with most having us better than that. That's a fact. So, judging Cherington in the negative at this point is absurd and illogical and quite frankly disingenuous.

Others have lamented at how bad the ML roster is without stating the obvious, which is the payroll is astronomically lower than what the previous GM had to work with for much of his time. Let that sink in. Astronomically lower, and even when Nutting spent upwards of 9 figures, it was still below average in the league. And we're operating on what, half that now?

Oh, he hasn't hit on anyone with a max salary of 2-3M per, with most "FA" signings being league minimum castoffs, because that's all he's been allowed to spend to date. By all means, how is Baltimore doing with a shit payroll? Oakland, Miami, etc, etc?

And yet, Ben Gamel is hitting 300/800+ OPS, for what? 1.8M? That's a huge win.

Jose Quintana? 2M and he's a 2.70 ERA/3.72 FIP guy thus far. That kind of production at 2M dollars per year is a massive win. It would have been a massive win 20 years ago at that price.

How about David Bednar? Name 5 closers you'd start to build w/ before him. I'll wait.

Jack Suwinksi and Castillo have looked like at least useful bench/depth options with the potential to maybe become decent regulars. Obviously they are still young and could go in either direction but both were lotto ticket trade acquisitions.

And again, most of the premium talent Cherington has brought into the system hasn't yet reached the ML level so that factors into why waiting and giving him the same timeline that his predecessor got, is logical.

Huntington's Pirates sucked ass in year 3. They sucked ass in year 4 and it wasn't until year 5 they got close to .500.

If we're losing 90+ games 2-3 years from now, I'll be right up with the rest of the gang screaming for a new GM, although at this point, we really should be running Nutting out of town before anyone. That's a pipe dream it seems.
 
We're in May of year 3 for Cherington and already have at worst a top 5 minor league system in baseball, with most having us better than that. That's a fact. So, judging Cherington in the negative at this point is absurd and illogical and quite frankly disingenuous.

I'm not going to respond to the whole Ben Cherington job interview answer.

My point is: it is easy to build a good farm system when tanking. Tanking is the easiest thing to do in sports. Especially at the time. No one calls your prospects busts in year 1-3.

Wait on slurping him until he puts together a meaningfully good roster here, at any payroll. Nutting loosened the purse strings for Huntington because the Pirates put together hope at the ML level. Even in 2011 they were like 8 games over .500 when they drafted Gerrit Cole 1:1. 2012 they were in a playoff spot before an epic collapse. It's what gives me hope that if Cherington's Pirates get decent Nutting will loosen the purse strings again.

By all accounts he wanted this job and hell, he wanted the low payroll because he wanted to have a go at tanking with 0 pressure. It's easy but he seems better at it than most.
 
I'm not going to respond to the whole Ben Cherington job interview answer.

My point is: it is easy to build a good farm system when tanking. Tanking is the easiest thing to do in sports. Especially at the time. No one calls your prospects busts in year 1-3.

Wait on slurping him until he puts together a meaningfully good roster here, at any payroll. Nutting loosened the purse strings for Huntington because the Pirates put together hope at the ML level. Even in 2011 they were like 8 games over .500 when they drafted Gerrit Cole 1:1. 2012 they were in a playoff spot before an epic collapse. It's what gives me hope that if Cherington's Pirates get decent Nutting will loosen the purse strings again.

By all accounts he wanted this job and hell, he wanted the low payroll because he wanted to have a go at tanking with 0 pressure. It's easy but he seems better at it than most.

In Huntington's THIRD YEAR, the Bucs lost 105 games. We're on pace to go nowhere near that mark, even with the latest loss (vs the Reds which is pathetic FTR).

So, if we're going to compare track records, Cherington is already at least on par with Huntington, if not ahead of him.

At the ML level.

Fact.
 
In Huntington's THIRD YEAR, the Bucs lost 105 games. We're on pace to go nowhere near that mark, even with the latest loss (vs the Reds which is pathetic FTR).

So, if we're going to compare track records, Cherington is already at least on par with Huntington, if not ahead of him.

At the ML level.

Fact.

Sure. They are on par. Let's hope Cherington's years 4-8 are as successful as Huntington's.
 
Sure. They are on par. Let's hope Cherington's years 4-8 are as successful as Huntington's.

Correct.

Which is why I don't understand bitching about the ML roster. A complete teardown, while operating on a bottom of the barrel payroll means you cannot logically expect major success this early.

So that's why I'm annoyed at the notion that the guy building the team is somehow a POS loser because we're not pushing 90 wins yet.

Give it time.

Start worrying when Roansy, Cruz, Gonzo, Davis, etc, etc all flop upon their climb to the ML level.

Until then, expect to lose 90ish games this year. Then next year you hope you're around 500, and the year after, pushing for a legitimate WC berth.

That's the timeline, IMHO. If we're still sucking ass 2-3 years from now. OK, we can call Cherington out as a failure.
 
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Correct.

Which is why I don't understand bitching about the ML roster. A complete teardown, while operating on a bottom of the barrel payroll means you cannot logically expect major success this early.

So that's why I'm annoyed at the notion that the guy building the team is somehow a POS loser because we're not pushing 90 wins yet.

Give it time.

Start worrying when Roansy, Cruz, Gonzo, Davis, etc, etc all flop upon their climb to the ML level.

Until then, expect to lose 90ish games this year. Then next year you hope you're around 500, and the year after, pushing for a legitimate WC berth.

That's the timeline, IMHO. If we're still sucking ass 2-3 years from now. OK, we can call Cherington out as a failure.

Like sure, but we are also fans and we want the team to be better. It is tough to watch losing. And while as I said tanking is easy, it's not as straight-forward of a path to success in the MLB as in other sports. The difference between us picking 4th and 10th next year is negligible on the path of our rebuild, IMO. How you hit on trades, when you're actually selecting players who are in professional baseball 1-3 steps away from the majors, is more impactful than the draft IMO. Like we all made a huge deal of White, Chandler and Solometo last year. Do we really care all that much now? Would we give up...hell, Diego Castillo...for any of them?
 
2nd lowest payroll in baseball since he got here. He's operating so far below what Huntington had. You need to take into consideration the money he has to spend on players coming via FA. Has he been allowed to sign a Lirianio (I think he was a 3/40 contract) yet? Nope. Not even close. And yet Quintana is doing Liriano type stuff right now for us on a 2 million dollar deal. That's about the max he's been allowed to fork over for a FA player.

I don't care about FA signings and nobody else should either. Not until Nutting opens up his wallet. If you continue missing when the owner gives you 70, 80, 90 million, fine. There is room for distress. Right now it's about the talent we're bringing on trades and the draft and IMO, there is a lot more positive than negative in that realm. At least on paper.

Blaming Cherington for lack of FA success is illogical.

Shelton's management of our ML rosters has been awful by and large IMO. And I don't think much of Marin either.

As usual - you're speaking my mind for me.

I would like to add this is early in the 2nd year that BC's had HIS scouting departments fully in place. Hence I would love to see the Bucs hit on more than a guy or two this year. I want to believe - but he's gotta give me increased results this year.

Got a feeling on Suwinsky for sure though.

It's the trend line on the Ks. 29% of plate appearance last year (just doing K/(AB+BB)). 37% this year.


Then you look at his comp, Hiura.

His H-A and AA year he was at 20%. Then he jumps up to 27% in the PCL. Now he's a fringe-MLBer pushed out by a small-ball, batted ball player in Wong - speaking of whom we should pay Wong $5M next year just to not play against us.

Much in the same way as the results of Keller affect our perception of Priester and Polanco affects our perception of Cruz, so too will Hiura affect our perception of Gonzales. Fair or unfair.
Your last paragraph certainly does not represent how I experience things. Every single year, my personal ability to understand the world of prospects and development expands dramatically. The Polanco's of the world happen all the time to every team.

And Keller's going to make you eat your words if he stays healthy.

And Cruz is showing me a ton of bust potential this spring. I am disturbed by his attitude at times. I'm falling off the bandwagon. The recent surge of BB's are desperately needed, but he still has a lot to work on in AAA right now.

I may have projected other posters attitudes as your's in my post.
 
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It always strikes me as absurd and baseless when people start to speculate about a player's psychology. I don't think it's that hard to just watch the games and form a judgment about him, and how his season has been going. There have been ups and downs against very uneven competition. The next week or two should give an even firmer sense if the two weeks of bad approach were a blip or something more. I'm not too worried from the eye test of watching him on a regular basis, but I have almost no confidence in the overall player development direction of the organization.

Gonzales is a pretty alarming case, if you ask me. Maybe the Pirates PR machine is right and he's an adjustment away, but it doesn't look like he can recognize spin or catch up to velocity, which are the reddest of red flags given the rest of his profile.

Given you must have watched more of Cruz's games than me this year, how you could not see the obvious attitude and maturity issues matriculating on the field is beyond me?
 
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