OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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And Keller's going to make you eat your words if he stays healthy.

Here is hoping! Keller was held back by both the underwhelming stuff (for a power pitcher) and the mental demons he had developed. And of course the command, but we'll set that aside for a second.

Now that the stuff is no longer underwhelming, maybe the mental demons will fall away. It's disappointing though that the results have not corresponded to the stuff uptick.
 
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Here is hoping! Keller was held back by both the underwhelming stuff (for a power pitcher) and the mental demons he had developed. And of course the command, but we'll set that aside for a second.

Now that the stuff is no longer underwhelming, maybe the mental demons will fall away. It's disappointing though that the results have not corresponded to the stuff uptick.

Those mental demons require exorcism. He needs innings, and a great vet catcher to figure those things out. Bummer on the Perez injury. You may have to wait well into next year with Mitch.

Think Charlie Morton. The stuff is good enough to overcome and develop his weak mental game. In the absence of a good pitching coach, the catcher is essential IMO.
 
Those mental demons require exorcism. He needs innings, and a great vet catcher to figure those things out. Bummer on the Perez injury. You may have to wait well into next year with Mitch.

Think Charlie Morton. The stuff is good enough to overcome and develop his weak mental game. In the absence of a good pitching coach, the catcher is essential IMO.

If Morton's career is any indication, Keller won't find success in Pittsburgh.

I don't know if Cherington would give Keller as many chances as the regime gave Morton here even. Morton was their guy, whereas Keller isn't Cherington's. He's also about to get more expensive if he's good at all.
I'm hoping for a 4.50-5 ERA with a positive trend in the latter half of the season both in the eye test, situational pitching, and in the results for Keller.
 
If Morton's career is any indication, Keller won't find success in Pittsburgh.

I don't know if Cherington would give Keller as many chances as the regime gave Morton here even. Morton was their guy, whereas Keller isn't Cherington's. He's also about to get more expensive if he's good at all.
I'm hoping for a 4.50-5 ERA with a positive trend in the latter half of the season both in the eye test, situational pitching, and in the results for Keller.
Bro we don't look at baseball through the same lense, that's for sure.

Morton was mishandled, there was no development of Charlie in the Pittsburgh system. He had to go elsewhere to get developed, and that was the biggest complaint about the previous front office, wasn't it?

Wasn't that exactly why we brought Ben Cherington in? To right that wrong, and build a real team? Haven't you noticed what the Bucs are doing in the minors? Who they're hiring?

You don't think Keller is going to get an opportunity to develop another year or two by this front office? Seriously?
 
Bro we don't look at baseball through the same lense, that's for sure.

Morton was mishandled, there was no development of Charlie in the Pittsburgh system. He had to go elsewhere to get developed, and that was the biggest complaint about the previous front office, wasn't it?

Wasn't that exactly why we brought Ben Cherington in? To right that wrong, and build a real team? Haven't you noticed what the Bucs are doing in the minors? Who they're hiring?

You don't think Keller is going to get an opportunity to develop another year or two by this front office? Seriously?
What, no? The Pirates tried to do a whole Halladay thing with Charlie Morton and it was much ballyhooed. He threw great sinkers and was called ground chuck, but he couldn't get lefties out.

The Pirates did try to develop him in the Searage/Benedict mold. It worked for a lot of pitchers. It was how we were successful. It didn't work for him.

Sorry, I wasn't aware that I was watching a less-than-real team in 2012-2016. Maybe I would have cared less had I known it wasn't a real organization!

RE: Morton vs. Keller. Starting in 2011, Morton put up an ERA- of 103, 122, 91, 105 and 125. ERA- is indexed at 100 and lower = better. These aren't great numbers. But dawg. Keller is hanging out at 144 for his career. The difference is that Morton was a serviceable starting pitcher with untapped potential. Thus far Keller has been a non-serviceable starting pitcher with untapped potential. What I'm saying is that to keep getting chances, he has to cross into the "serviceable" category and soon. I hope he does.
 
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What, no? The Pirates tried to do a whole Halladay thing with Charlie Morton and it was much ballyhooed. He threw great sinkers and was called ground chuck, but he couldn't get lefties out.

The Pirates did try to develop him in the Searage/Benedict mold. It worked for a lot of pitchers. It was how we were successful. It didn't work for him.

Sorry, I wasn't aware that I was watching a less-than-real team in 2012-2016. Maybe I would have cared less had I known it wasn't a real organization!
Yeah - Morton & Cole had similar experiences being "developed" by the Searage Years Bucs.

The Bucs forced something onto Morton - that's basically the opposite of what they're doing with young players now.

On another note - had some crazy dude road-rage me tonight on the way home from work. At one point, I was prepared to fight for my life. I think some of that is coming out here tonight.

My tone is off. Apologies.
 
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I don't really like endlessly relitigating Huntington on his own or Huntington vs. Cherington, but I'm not sure I fully follow everything that's being said.

When Huntington was hired, he quite literally had to invent the wheel from scratch. There was no analytics department at all, nor was there much of an international scouting presence.

I do think it's early to write Cherington off, and that the obvious main problem remains Nutting. But outside of a franchise which had clearly stagnated and was handicapped in terms of its commitment to the MLB payroll (again a Nutting issue: Huntington had a mandate to win in MLB but didn't have the ability to take the payroll back up), Cherington did not really inherit some dire situation. And outside of certain positions, the front office largely remains the same. Cherington brought in Sanders, hired Marin, and appointed Baker and now recently Robinson. The amateur scouts who pulled off the vaunted 2021 draft are all the same guys that were here under Huntington.

I don't think the situations at the time of hire are very comparable, to say nothing about the state of the league at either time. It's too early to say how a number of things will turn out, but I'm not sure I see much of a plan besides continuing to kick the can down the road. I think that's a Nutting problem as well as a Cherington one, but maybe things will shift as the wave of talent starts arriving. Cherington's MO so far has been to bide his time for long stretches but not back down from decisiveness in short spurts.
 
Yeah - Morton & Cole had similar experiences being "developed" by the Searage Years Bucs.

The Bucs forced something onto Morton - that's basically the opposite of what they're doing with young players now.

On another note - had some crazy dude road-rage me tonight on the way home from work. At one point, I was prepared to fight for my life. I think some of that is coming out here tonight.

My tone is off. Apologies.

It's okay. But I would also say that in the early Searage years, Searage/Benedict and the shift were considered our competitive edge.

I also think some of this is availability bias on your part. You're reading these great pieces on PP and such about the development guys we have staffing the lower levels of the organization. I'm not saying these are or aren't great people/hires, but don't you think that similar positions and people existed beforehand? I read a lot of PP in the 2011-2014 years. It was glowing about the organization, top to bottom. Then it went subscription and I'm cheap/already have a million others, so I stopped. Maybe I'll start again. I need to drop ESPN+, so I could swap it out.

I'm very optimistic about the Pirates and the farm system. I just don't like retconning. It's a personal thing. I don't like it on the Penguins side when posters will say stuff like "I knew Bylsma was a bozo from the beginning" and I don't like it here. I don't think there's any shame in saying - this worked but didn't evolve with the times, this worked but there was some luck and then luck ran out, or I thought this worked but I was wrong. Maybe even "this worked only with certain types of players."
 
I'll say the thing that I appreciate most about Cherington and his staff is his mastery of other team's 10-30 ranked prospects.

He pushes hard on the name brand prospect in these deals, then the other team typically balks because top 100 prospects aren't traded. So he pushes and pushes and then eventually pivots to "okay I'll take 2 of your #10-20 ranked guys and another lottery ticket" and he/his staff has a track record of just nailing which one of those guys was on the verge of breaking out. Roansy, Castillo, Escotto, Peguero, Nicholas, Crowe?, Suwinski, Endy, Bednar, Omar Cruz. It is super impressive.
 
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I do think Gonzales needs a swing adjustment in the sense he needs to take a more Hayes like approach and that's contact first, oppo/up the middle. He's got the wrists and bat speed certainly. He seems like he's trying to drive the ball on the regular and as you advance, obviously pitching quality increases. Though the idea that he can't see spin or catch up to speed is a non starter given his dominance last year at A+ and more importantly the AFL. Plenty of guys are throwing better than the level pitches and he hit extremely well, yes K'ing a bit too much, but still producing great average and power, while taking a solid amount of walks.

His bat speed can produce some EV on its own, but I think he needs to take a bit off the power meter and look to drive the ball up the middle on a lower plane, at least in terms of getting back on track over the season.

You have to think he's probably in his head a little bit given this is the first semi extended struggle of this magnitude. It has to be unsettling for anyone, especially a guy who's dominated every level he's played up until this point.

We need to exercise patience on him. And Cruz certainly. The issue I have with the latter is he continues to struggle in the field and that was the one place I really wanted to see progress and as far as playing SS goes, he's simply botching too many routine plays to stick.

We can be upset that he got sent down for financial reasons, but at the same time, you cannot simply write off his pretty awful struggles to this point. He's not deserving of a call up hitting .190 and producing an error every 4ish games. Maybe he'd be an outlier, a guy who looks like crap against lesser pitching and then hammers MLB guys, but the historical precedent is not in his favor there.

I'd like to see at least a couple of weeks of him hitting like a stud before he transitions up. If nothing more than it should have his confidence in a better place.

But I simply don't think he's a SS long term. I've said as much for a few years now. It's not an athletic question. It's more of a mental issue as the errors he's making are focus oriented.

Let's wait and see what we can do once some of our top 10-15 prospects get up to the ML level. We need to practice patience.
 
I've said more than enough of my piece on Cruz, but I don't disagree with the substance of that, really. What I find worrying in general is the lack of a clear direction under BC with regard to him. If the decision was firmly that he cannot play shortstop in MLB, then I would disagree with it based on the eye test, but at least it would be a decision that was actually taken. He could have been playing CF or one of the corners last year in AAA.

He's played 3 games in LF this year, and made the one pretty bad error on a fly ball that he lost. As best as I can tell, the plan is that he'll be able to move around to different positions and be a DH sometimes, too.

What frustrates me is that there is a misconception about his defense. Simply put, he can make plus plus plays at shortstop and do so with consistency. The other night, he had to sprint quickly to his left in order to get a ball going up the middle, glove it, and not really be able to set his feet from the momentum as he fired a perfect chest-high strike to first base.

He does make bad throws at times, but when he has the quickness and instinct to get to those kinds of balls, I don't think his defensive value is so straightforward. I'm not sure errors are extremely predictive. I won't make an argument against his head not being in the right place (but would stop short of any psychological speculation beyond that), as some of that might be registered with the errors. Last year he had 16, which is a high number that would scale higher if you extrapolate beyond the 500 or so innings he did play, but there are very good MLB shortstops who commit a pretty high number of errors.

My main dead horse with defense/shortstop is that you have to play it out and see. Errors simply do not tell you enough about a player's defensive profile, and defensive metrics are hazy at best. The eye test says he's more than capable at shortstop, giving enough value back with the above average plays and especially the bat to not be worried about it. There are also no other viable options, and he has not been developed to play other positions. When the time comes, they should just stick him at shortstop and assess the situation in the future.

Offensively, I will also make no argument against the idea that he needs to improve at the plate before a call up makes sense, but I also don't think he needs to crush the pitching. He needs to be in a good place at the plate. He has been for the last week and a half, and last night was a good example. Early in the game, he was working the count and then whiffed on a good breaking pitch to go down to two strikes. He battled back in the count and then was able to hold off on the same pitch for a walk.

A few weeks ago, in the Iowa series, he was clearly pressing, leading to quick plate appearances where he got his ass handed to him and was regularly behind in the count. But based on the last year plus of watching him, these kinds of ABs are more the exception than the norm from him, which is why a comparison to Polanco or others doesn't sit well with me.

Something that hasn't been commented on much this year is that Cruz's BB% is also up this year. He's seeing a lot of pitches, and I think sometimes pitchers are just completely working around him. All told, what I fundamentally remain unconvinced about is that there is anything to "prove" at the AAA level. This is something that people seemed to be on board with regarding Cherington before, and now that Cruz has had a few bad weeks without a scorching week to make the basic numbers look better, attitudes seem to have reversed. I think he has to continue to look better at the plate through the weekend and in the next series, and then he's ready for the level he should have been at on merit in the first place.
 
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I agree that errors in a vacuum or as a raw number don't tell the entire story but an error allows a baserunner that shouldn't be there. And if there are already runners on base, is probably costing you a run. That may be passable at the minor league level but in the top league, errors will cost you games more frequently. And right now, is there anyone on this board that feels confident we can see a big increase in erros at the premium position of SS? With pitching we're rolling out? With the lineup that has trouble producing?

The only way to really counter those is A, the player had better be producing significant positives at the plate. Can Cruz do that? We don't know yet. He has the potential to go either direction, with significant variance.

And B, you need to have a lineup that is able to consistently produce runs to offset the defensive lapses that will cost you runs over the course of 162 games.

This is why someone like Newman has value to a young team, with subpar pitching. You know the vast majority of times out, he's going to support the pitchers with strong D. Sure, his bat is subpar (a bit better this year) but on a team with below average to poor starters, defense is more important in my book.

I agree Cruz can play SS in the sense he looks the part and does make many great plays and handles plenty of regular ones with ease. But you cannot gloss over the fact he paces for 30-40 errors over a full season. I can probably handle that if he's Ronald Acuna, but until that happens, I want strong D at SS.
 
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For positive Cruz stuff, he hit a single last night that statcast clocked at 121.5 mph.

With that kind of exit velo and seeing as he gets good launch angles for power hitting, he won't have to hit for much contact to be an effective major league hitter.
 
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For positive Cruz stuff, he hit a single last night that statcast clocked at 121.5 mph.

With that kind of exit velo and seeing as he gets good launch angles for power hitting, he won't have to hit for much contact to be an effective major league hitter.

His EV's are abnormally elite. Even on batted balls on the ground/don't leave the park.

I certainly think he's got a better shot at being a ML star than Polanco did after getting a decent look early on with the latter. His bat speed is as good as anyone in MLB baseball right now and his hands are much quicker than GP.

Cruz simply needs to continue working on pitch recognition and being patient. Pitchers and scouts aren't stupid. They're not going to pitch him in areas that he can regularly hammer the ball from. You need to work counts to your favor and then hit the mistakes and pitches that must hit the zone when the pitcher is behind 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc.
 
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We definitely can't have a 40 error shortstop, and Cruz has a ton to prove at the MLB level, whenever it is that he arrives. But I think that letting him play his position and seeing how it unfolds is what makes the most sense for the maximum number of ABs this season. We've already played games for service time reasons and now have a less than desirable start to the season.

I don't think Cruz's performance can simply be written off, or that only management is to blame for his slow start, but I do think it needs to be contextualized and that the eye test tells you a lot more about his readiness and performance than his batting average. My read on that is that he had a slower start, but didn't look bad at the plate, bouncing between games cancelled for snow and some hits not falling. Then the Ks spiked and he looked out of sorts, and now he's turned things back around.

The other indicators are fine, so all that I'm looking for to end the AAA experiment as quickly as possible, because I think even if he adjusts to the inconsistent level of pitching in AAA, it's not going to correlate to immediate MLB success. His best chance for that is to be promoted when he's been locked in at the plate. Everything else will be a struggle, including once he has success for a few weeks in MLB and pitchers start to attack him differently.

My overriding concern has been to see us get to that point as quickly as is feasible, which is why I have been so insistent in thinking that the service time games were a big waste. The current team seems very likely to drop 95-100 games again, so I don't think maximizing Cruz's MLB plate appearances in order to have a better idea of where to slot him in 2023 and beyond is a big deal. Maybe he will come up and be error prone while dealing with a huge K spike, needing some reinvention and a new full-time position.
 
I'm on team +defense at short and catcher.

I dunno. I just think it helps a young pitching staff. We'll have a lot of young pitchers with potential. Short is a premium defensive position and I want a good defense behind them. For that matter that includes 1B where Yoshi has been deficient.

Is it batshit crazy to ask if Cruz can play 1st? I realize it makes the bat play down but given his freakish size/wingspan and ability to pick the ball...couldn't he be like, a generationally great first baseman defensively?
 
I'm on team +defense at short and catcher.

I dunno. I just think it helps a young pitching staff. We'll have a lot of young pitchers with potential. Short is a premium defensive position and I want a good defense behind them. For that matter that includes 1B where Yoshi has been deficient.

Is it batshit crazy to ask if Cruz can play 1st? I realize it makes the bat play down but given his freakish size/wingspan and ability to pick the ball...couldn't he be like, a generationally great first baseman defensively?

I've thought RF (though i understand wanting LF in PNC) or 1B long term. For precisely the reasons you mentioned. I think, if you could get him to accept it without the despondence, he'd be insanely good. Size, and the need for him to throw significantly less is a plus. I mean he's still going to miss a few groundballs, but it's hard to imagine him not being a plus defender there, if not elite given his dimensions.

I think Cruz will be up in 3-4 weeks. At that point there is little concern he'd hit S2 status. Highly doubtful you could miss the first 2 months and win ROTY. Unless he gets worse, I think his promotion is certain sometime in early-mid June. I'd be pretty shocked if it went into July.

We need the bat potential and I do agree he's getting close to the point where you need to throw him out against the big boys and see what he has. And the FO isn't stupid. They know he'd generate at least short term interest with the potential to be a big boon if he explodes.
 


Lets gooo


Nice to see. Considering his later season downturn was him clearly pitching with a significant injury, and knowing what he was doing when healthy, means I'll be keeping close tabs on him. I thought he was/might still be a generational P prospect at his peak. His best stuff was practically unhittable in the best college division/tournaments.

Wanted to add, he'd be high on my list for a comp pick or round 2, though I imagine if he pitches well he'll go in the 1st.
 
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He could be there at 36. Pitching well for a couple months in an Indy league isn't likely to move the needle a whole lot
 
Yeah, it's hard to predict. College pitching is paper thin this year, so that might throw a wrench into things, but it all depends on how his stuff looks, I assume. Hopefully something works out and he gets his payday, because he was really screwed over last year.
 
Well I'd say it's going to come down to his medicals more than anything. And obviously if he dominates/pitches look great, people will probably take the risk. If he looks decent (or worse) you're probably going to pass, especially if there really is something significant on the MRI's.
 
It basically comes down to the radar gun. If the second digit is a 5 or higher, he'll go first round. 3-4 and he'll drop. Less than 3 and he will drop a lot.
 
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