I don't really see much of a point in continuing the Cruz discussion, but as I said in my post above (ignored, then reduced to the most narrow possible misreading -- par for the course, and what makes this reply pointless), a couple of so-so weeks in AAA are not indicative of much. As the post Gallatin linked pointed out, Cruz's K% really spiked, culminating in a terrible series vs. Iowa.
It's now reverted hard in the opposite direction for a short period of time. What I think is the best outcome is for this trend to continue this week, and then for Pirates to end the service time manipulation and get him against MLB pitching. As far as I can find, there is little coordination between cumulative AAA performance and MLB success. You cannot promote a guy who is not comfortable at the plate, which was the case for Cruz on the whole prior to 1.5-2 weeks ago. Beyond that, cumulative counting stats can't really tell you much of anything.
From the eye test, he's been ready for the challenge of MLB pitching since the Pirates rewarded him with the cup of coffee last year. He hits the ball hard and has a good understanding of the zone, knowing which pitches he can do damage with. I am not trying to make any claims about his future success other than what I think the best decisions are for his development.
If you want pessimism on that front, then I'd go further and say if the foot dragging continues through June or into July, we run a higher risk of a totally wasted season from a developmental perspective. Whatever Cruz does or doesn't do between now and his callup, MLB pitchers are going to present a new challenge for him and require different kinds of adjustments, unlike his current situation where it's much more about staying within his game and avoiding the kind of bad stretches he had for two weeks. That is why I think it's imperative to end the AAA experiment as soon as is feasible, and if he has another week this week like he did last week, he'll basically be in that position. Maybe you wait one more, but the longer you go, the more you'll have to face Shelton's predilection for constant change while still favoring a guy like Newman, who has to be close to returning.
Again, from another step back, what I think is most concerning is whether or not Cherington and John Baker have an actual plan, especially for Cruz. They claim he has things to work on, and there has been a fledgling attempt to throw him into a new position in games, but he's played LF almost as many games as he's DH'd (3 vs. 2). I think the extent of their plan from the beginning has been to avoid continuing the service clock for as long as possible, and Cruz's early scuffle will give them cover to do just that, even if he has a hot stretch, because it just requires roughly a month more.
The only thing I really care about is ending the games and utilizing MLB playing time on guys who might have roles to play in the next few years and beyond - Cruz, Contreras, Suwinski, Castillo, CSN - rather than whatever it is we have going on with Newman, Tucker, VanMeter, and the like.
