OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win
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DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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Looks like the Dodgers DFA'd Matt Beaty today. Not sure there's a perfect fit with the Pirates because Beaty is kind of a corners/DH guy, but he put up some pretty nice numbers as a part-time player with them. He also has an option year left, so it's possible that the Dodgers will work out a trade for him, and ot make matters more complicated, if he does go to waivers, I think the order is based on reverse April 2021 standings (where we are pretty much middle of the pack).
Still, might be worth it as cheap depth and a bat that improves some spot. Main issue is obviously Hayes has 3B locked down, and Yoshi/Vogey can basically only be at 1B or DH, so that leaves him more corner OF/DH at times. But a 114 wRC+ lefty bat with a couple of cheap arbitration years is something we should be taking a look at, I think.
Still also need to address the pitching in some way. Davies signed a cheap deal with the Diamondbacks, and Pineda is also off the board. The only veteran who could definitely still throw some solid innings is Cueto, but I have to imagine a competitive team will be happy to bring him on.
Still, might be worth it as cheap depth and a bat that improves some spot. Main issue is obviously Hayes has 3B locked down, and Yoshi/Vogey can basically only be at 1B or DH, so that leaves him more corner OF/DH at times. But a 114 wRC+ lefty bat with a couple of cheap arbitration years is something we should be taking a look at, I think.
Still also need to address the pitching in some way. Davies signed a cheap deal with the Diamondbacks, and Pineda is also off the board. The only veteran who could definitely still throw some solid innings is Cueto, but I have to imagine a competitive team will be happy to bring him on.
ChaosAgent
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Watching a bit of the game.
Keller looked pretty decent in the first. You can see the increased velocity. Then the O gets blown away by Nola. Hayes with the Hayesian groundout to 1B to end it.
Keller looked pretty decent in the first. You can see the increased velocity. Then the O gets blown away by Nola. Hayes with the Hayesian groundout to 1B to end it.
ChaosAgent
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Keller's increased velocity is making his change (?) at 91-92 play up to lefties.
I don't like his location but the stuff is popping right now.
I don't like his location but the stuff is popping right now.
Empoleon8771
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Yoshi just destroyed a ball, nice.
Yeah, his fastball is sitting in the 97-99 range and his changeup is in the low 90s.
What's odd is that it seemed like he was only throwing fastballs and changeups, maybe he's just working on those specific pitches.
Edit: that one looked like a 91 MPH slider and he just threw 2 85 MPH curve balls. The second one was a meatball that should have been crushed, though.
Yeah, his fastball is sitting in the 97-99 range and his changeup is in the low 90s.
What's odd is that it seemed like he was only throwing fastballs and changeups, maybe he's just working on those specific pitches.
Edit: that one looked like a 91 MPH slider and he just threw 2 85 MPH curve balls. The second one was a meatball that should have been crushed, though.
ChaosAgent
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I think Keller, to be successful, is going to need to dominate righties and just...kinda...hold on against lefties. That will limit teams' abilities to put crooked numbers on the board against him.
Even talented guys like Morton had issues getting lefties out here.
Empoleon8771
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I think Tucker has looked pretty good in the spring so far. If he's trying out for a role on the big league team, I think he's earning it.
With assuming the Pirates keep Cruz down in AAA to manipulate his service time, I imagine we could see Tucker as the starting SS and Newman as the starting 2B. I think the lineup today, but with Gamel replacing Alford, is probably what the opening day lineup will be.
With assuming the Pirates keep Cruz down in AAA to manipulate his service time, I imagine we could see Tucker as the starting SS and Newman as the starting 2B. I think the lineup today, but with Gamel replacing Alford, is probably what the opening day lineup will be.
DJ Spinoza
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The velo spike looks like it is both sustainable and something that Keller can command pretty well, which I think also seems true about some of his other pitches in the early going. Hard not to start getting excited, but lots of reasons to be cautious. I think it is worth noting that relatively speaking, he hasn't pitched all that much in the majors despite how it would seem.
I'm hopeful that we'll get some data on the fastball but it doesn't look quite as flat as before and 97-99 definitely buys you a little more leeway.
I'm hopeful that we'll get some data on the fastball but it doesn't look quite as flat as before and 97-99 definitely buys you a little more leeway.
Empoleon8771
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Allen just legged out a single on a ball hit directly to 1st base, which resulted in the Pirates scoring a run.
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Empoleon8771
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ChaosAgent
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It's possible that if Keller has regained dominant stuff, it changes his entire outlook.
His first few years reeked of a guy who had assumed his stuff would be dominant enough to smooth any rough edges but it couldn't. If the stuff is great and he's not walking guys everywhere, there's some serious projection left on him.
His first few years reeked of a guy who had assumed his stuff would be dominant enough to smooth any rough edges but it couldn't. If the stuff is great and he's not walking guys everywhere, there's some serious projection left on him.
DJ Spinoza
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We're rolling out with Cruz in left field today, though he continues to bat 6th in the order. Two thoughts, one optimistic and one deeply pessimistic that I think might actually be what's in store for 2022:
1) Perhaps Cruz continually batting where he has in spring training is a sign that the Pirates are actually willing to reward him for earning a roster spot and not screw around with service time manipulation. That's the only other option against the one we all think, which is that it's pre-decided that he won't make the team because of service time. If they were in the middle, or even just in any case, it would make more sense for him to be hitting at the top of the order so that we get the maximum number of ABs possible vs. MLB pitching.
2) Unfortunately, if we are fully intent on service time manipulation and nothing else (as actions as well as words suggest), then the situation is much worse than needing to wait a few weeks to see him in Pittsburgh. The reason I say this is that for any team who is committed to manipulation at all costs, the new rules actually incentivize wanting talented young players to struggle a bit. Why? Simply put 2 and 2 together. If the goal is gaining service time, even just Super Two (which does seem like it for us, I don't think we can plausibly do it for 2+ months to pass Super Two unless Cruz gets hurt or really struggles), then Cruz can actually negate that if he gets called up and wins ROY or finishes second. In that case, he would get the full year anyways, thus negating the initial service time manipulation.
If that's right, and I hope I am either misunderstanding the new rule or really straining it into something implausible, then what you can expect to see besides moving Cruz to multiple positions might even be something like a phantom IL stint at some point. Any measure that prevents him from having as good of a rookie year as possible is actually incentivized if the team is committed above all else to gaining the service year, since performance (even though it's based on subjective things like ROY voting and prospect lists) from Cruz can negate that strategy. So: roving around multiple positions in AAA, then doing the same coupled with inconsistent playing time for a few weeks in Pittsburgh, phantom IL... it's all possibly in the cards.
Conversely, the new CBA gives a very easy pivot for any team that's not a joke, since Opening Day promotion + ROY/second place = free comp round draft pick. Those draft picks are definitely good value, but I don't know if that's enough for the Pirates if their decision-making is entirely oriented around the idea of deferring the dirt-cheap roster as long as possible. Hopefully, him batting 6th and continuing to perform consistently besides a brain fart dropped ball is a sign that we might actually avoid all this mess and start him on Opening Day.
1) Perhaps Cruz continually batting where he has in spring training is a sign that the Pirates are actually willing to reward him for earning a roster spot and not screw around with service time manipulation. That's the only other option against the one we all think, which is that it's pre-decided that he won't make the team because of service time. If they were in the middle, or even just in any case, it would make more sense for him to be hitting at the top of the order so that we get the maximum number of ABs possible vs. MLB pitching.
2) Unfortunately, if we are fully intent on service time manipulation and nothing else (as actions as well as words suggest), then the situation is much worse than needing to wait a few weeks to see him in Pittsburgh. The reason I say this is that for any team who is committed to manipulation at all costs, the new rules actually incentivize wanting talented young players to struggle a bit. Why? Simply put 2 and 2 together. If the goal is gaining service time, even just Super Two (which does seem like it for us, I don't think we can plausibly do it for 2+ months to pass Super Two unless Cruz gets hurt or really struggles), then Cruz can actually negate that if he gets called up and wins ROY or finishes second. In that case, he would get the full year anyways, thus negating the initial service time manipulation.
If that's right, and I hope I am either misunderstanding the new rule or really straining it into something implausible, then what you can expect to see besides moving Cruz to multiple positions might even be something like a phantom IL stint at some point. Any measure that prevents him from having as good of a rookie year as possible is actually incentivized if the team is committed above all else to gaining the service year, since performance (even though it's based on subjective things like ROY voting and prospect lists) from Cruz can negate that strategy. So: roving around multiple positions in AAA, then doing the same coupled with inconsistent playing time for a few weeks in Pittsburgh, phantom IL... it's all possibly in the cards.
Conversely, the new CBA gives a very easy pivot for any team that's not a joke, since Opening Day promotion + ROY/second place = free comp round draft pick. Those draft picks are definitely good value, but I don't know if that's enough for the Pirates if their decision-making is entirely oriented around the idea of deferring the dirt-cheap roster as long as possible. Hopefully, him batting 6th and continuing to perform consistently besides a brain fart dropped ball is a sign that we might actually avoid all this mess and start him on Opening Day.
DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, this is a good point that I think is easy to underrate. A fresh year + sharpened arsenal and more velocity could very much lead to him carrying himself differently on the mound and stepping into a much different role. At this point it's not even like he needs to catapult into stardom in order to be really useful. If he's able to start shouldering a good chunk of innings and giving us consistent chances to win, then with some games where the swing and miss plays better, that's a front of the rotation #2-3 type, similar to Musgrove in a sense though obviously they are much different pitchers.
I still want to see some data on his fastball, but from the eye test it looks to be getting up on batters more quickly, and not just because he's gained a few ticks. The fastball is everything for him IMO, and if the fastball keeps getting better throughout this year, then there is lots of reason to be excited about him.
I have seen enough so far that I am pretty optimistic (about him being a useful MLB rotation anchor).
DJ Spinoza
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Scandale du Jour
JordanStaal#1Fan
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Nice to see Reynolds hitting well this spring. I don't think the contract issue is going to affect him. I'm a believer. He's a stud, a baseball junkie. Obviously I hope/wish we'd keep him for 6-7 years but the reality is we need to keep our fingers crossed some of these top prospects start contributing this year and next, and by 2024 we're pushing for the division or at least a wild card, which would allow us to still reap the benefits of a 5-7WAR player.
DJ Spinoza
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Marin saying that Yajure has gotten a bit of velocity back is really encouraging. If we can hit on both Contreras and Yajure, and Keller is serviceable as a #2/3 type, that's pretty great news for the immediate future.
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Empoleon8771
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At least Reynolds hasn't fallen off the map like Bellinger has.
It's absolutely insane to me how far he has fallen. He was great in the playoffs last year, but I don't know what has happened to him.
DanielPlainview
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In the age an analytics it seems to happen all the time. All it takes is some nerd figuring out your swing is off by .02 degrees or you can’t handle a curve in the dirt after a change up to send a guy into a season long slump
DJ Spinoza
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Cruz vs. Gerrit Cole today -- game is televised but I think the spring games are only working if you have MLB tv and live out of market like normal.
I don't think what Cruz does at this point matters all that much, but I guess there's at least a feasible chance that him not slowing down at all could put some pressure on them not to look bad. In particular, I think he has to navigate through avoiding Ks. Sample size is obviously tiny but he just has 1 in 11 ABs so far, and iirc, that 1 strikeout was really more of an amazing breaking pitch that just caught the zone. Just from the eye test, he's not pressing or trying to do too much at the plate, and looks both comfortable and laser-focused in there.
I think if he can navigate through the next 4-5 games in a similar way, it's going to put more pressure on the front office. It's already patently obvious what they're doing, but I think it becomes even moreso if he has not struggled at all in spring training, because a player can pick up corner OF spots in MLB with no problem. The biggest worry I have is that with Cruz looking good, if they actually want to manipulate his service time, then it's hard to avoid the consequence that they wouldn't want to just keep him down a few weeks and then have him come up and excel, because then that negates the manipulation. The bare minimum they can do is embrace an exciting young player on a team going nowhere and hope for an ROY finish and an extra draft pick as their compensation.
I don't think what Cruz does at this point matters all that much, but I guess there's at least a feasible chance that him not slowing down at all could put some pressure on them not to look bad. In particular, I think he has to navigate through avoiding Ks. Sample size is obviously tiny but he just has 1 in 11 ABs so far, and iirc, that 1 strikeout was really more of an amazing breaking pitch that just caught the zone. Just from the eye test, he's not pressing or trying to do too much at the plate, and looks both comfortable and laser-focused in there.
I think if he can navigate through the next 4-5 games in a similar way, it's going to put more pressure on the front office. It's already patently obvious what they're doing, but I think it becomes even moreso if he has not struggled at all in spring training, because a player can pick up corner OF spots in MLB with no problem. The biggest worry I have is that with Cruz looking good, if they actually want to manipulate his service time, then it's hard to avoid the consequence that they wouldn't want to just keep him down a few weeks and then have him come up and excel, because then that negates the manipulation. The bare minimum they can do is embrace an exciting young player on a team going nowhere and hope for an ROY finish and an extra draft pick as their compensation.
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The only chance Cruz has of starting up with the big club on opening day is if the Bucs plan on giving him a phantom trip to the DL to shave service time.
Shane Baz might end up being the biggest loss of any P we gave away, off topic. Imagine him at the top of our rotation with Contreras inbound, and a few others behind him.
Shane Baz might end up being the biggest loss of any P we gave away, off topic. Imagine him at the top of our rotation with Contreras inbound, and a few others behind him.
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Castillo w/a great piece of hitting on Cole, homers oppo puts the Bucs up 2-1.
I'd like to see him getting an opening day start at 2B.
I'd like to see him getting an opening day start at 2B.
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