OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Yes, in the end it can definitely be reduced to Nutting's cheapness, but I do think at least in terms of the policy for arbitration, it's on Cherington a little bit. What I mean is just that unless a long-term deal is coming, we are going to go all the way through arbitration now no matter what, instead of seeking to meet in the middle ahead of time.

The decision to do that can itself still be traced back to Nutting, so I'm not trying to bash Cherington. Still, at the end of the day this is an embarrassing look which doesn't really speak to the idea that they are trying to build a winning culture or take steps towards getting better. What other young players or potential free agents see is a player who had an MVP season who is now going to be dragged through arbitration by a team with almost no salary commitments at all, which just dispatched a bunch of veteran players simply to save another couple of million.

On an unrelated note, I had the perverse thought today of a way to actually solve service time manipulation and incentive continually putting the best baseball product on the field. If a ranked prospect has had enough ABs at AA and above and performs to a certain level, then any team who would still send him down should have to expose him to being added to the 26-man roster of every team that finished higher in the standings in the previous year. Obviously, this is impractical since there are subjective decisions that enter the mix when it comes to deciding whether a player is "ready", not to mention that no teams would agree and the MLBPA probably wouldn't ever want to advocate such a shoot from the hip idea.

In general it's just hard to feel excited about this team. They suck, made no attempt to get better, and the writing is already on the wall with relatively young, star players, even in a context where there are no short, medium, or long-term payroll commitments. The exciting rookie is going to be forced onto the AAA team in a brazenly cynical move. There are some intriguing small questions for diehard baseball fans, but it's hard to offer up any real defense of this franchise other than they've done a fair job of gathering a lot of young talent.

Even playing it out and saying that we won't try to "full throttle compete" until 2024, with how things are structed, Reynolds could be making 20-25 million in each of 24, 25, 26, and 27 and it would barely have any affect on the payroll being that high, because the only young players who would be on pace to hit arbitration prior to 25-26 are Hayes and then Contreras and Cruz. We'd have room to pay Reynolds and multiple free agents along with the rookies even if we weren't going to sustainably have a payroll over 90M until 2024 and beyond. There are just no excuses and no defense to run a baseball team like this. We'll see what happens, but in a microcosm nickel and diming Reynolds for 1-2M is the exact reason Nutting should be forced to sell.
 
It's definitely the case that a small dispute like this isn't going to affect the willingness (or more likely unwillingness) to pay for a Reynolds extension. But in context it's just such a bad look -- there's been a lot of talk about gathering talent and getting better, and outside of young prospects and Roansy Contreras, we have this kind of financial stuff plus I guess changing Ka'ai Tom for Greg Allen, and a few minor additions like Gamel, Yoshi, and Vogelbach.

The worst part is that rooting for the right thing to happen and MLBPA to win its lawsuit against the four worst ownership groups in the league is probably going to hurt the Pirates in a baseball sense. I'm not sure what the solution is, but owners who stay under 50M year in and year out just shouldn't own teams. The profit margin is not so narrow that they can't afford to go beyond that, since they get more than that as a starting point every year.

I'll save further despair for later but I think the logical direction here is a payroll that only creeps up ever so slightly to 50-60M over the next couple of years while they see what happens. I don't believe Cherington is going to "have the funds" simply because the evidence says otherwise.

Edit: substantively, another reason this is poor form is that the hearing will take place during the season now because of the lockout. It's part of the business sure, but attacking your best player who you have made statements about wanting to keep over 600K doesn't really inspire confidence.
 
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So maybe the @Gallatin stuff about how Priester's entire offseason/life was going to be a continuous Rocky improvement montage was a bit overblown.

I think he's going to continue to pitch only "above average" until he gets that fastball figured out. Which I really think he will eventually.

Priester, Davis, Gonzales, and Solometo all have that little something extra called "obsession". That actually matters.
 


Just trade him honestly if this is the approach. The assessment of fair value for the arbitration isn't even far off (if memory serves, the two sides enter figures that are obviously not communicated to the other ahead of time). There are clear precedents that benchmark the limits of what's possible in the remaining arbitration years, with Bryant being the clearest one, though his situation is somewhat complicated by the fact that he won NL MVP while still pre-arb.

A bad thought I had while seeing this go down is that opposing GMs have all the reason in the world to just wait out a price decline. Sure, a team having Reynolds for the full duration of the control is better for them in terms of cost savings and the best chance of a good long-term deal, so maybe you have a prayer that the Mariners would still get desperate mid-season. But if you are the Marlins, still on the rise and unlikely to truly push for it in 2022, there's no sense meeting Cherington's demands right now anyways.

The only way you can win with very good players is by committing to some of them so that you actually have a foundation in place and don't need to reinvent everything every 6-8 months. The only exception besides the obviously correct one of Nutting's cheapness and unwillingness to spend is if the front office things Reynolds will take a fairly sizable step back in 2022.
 
Reynolds isn't signing a long term contract because he is a Boras client, plain and simple.
Unless we buy out UFA years at a premium... which I think we should if he has a strong start to the season.

The Pirates won't and he will be traded next season, but meh.

Honestly, that pisses me off. We have him under control for 4 years. We have a very deep system. Cruz is ready, Contreras probably is. We have Reynolds and Hayes. Just f***ing try to compete! Spending under 40M is just pathetic. I am not asking them to sign top-tier free agent, just to round out the roster and try to compete in a weak division.
 
Totally agree.

But I have told myself many times, they are not going to compete in 2022 or 2023. That 2024 is the beginning of the run, if there is a run, and that is when they will be spending money in FA to build on the team.
 
Reynolds is represented by CAA, not Boras. He was a Boras client when he was drafted but isn't anymore.

He's still not going to sign, but it's because of the root of all of the problems: Bob Nutting. He will not spend a dime more than he is forced to, and all of the talk about the replacement of the top end of the front office and spending when the time comes is just propaganda. If he's backed into a corner, they might bump things up to 80 or 90 million for a year or two in 2025 or 2026, but that's way down the road. Actions speak louder than words and it's pretty obvious that there is no plan in place to win with Reynolds.

I really think there should be some mechanism in place to force a payroll floor even without getting into a cap nonsense. Even before the actual luxury tax revenue sharing, there is a set number that is going to all 30 teams. It's not necessary to have open books, but they should be able to be forced to account for every cent of the money to some kind of MLB and/or MLBPA-run accounting board. Any money that is not accounted for should be forfeited, simple as that, and better yet, owners who do it should be put in jeopardy.

The aspiration is clearly to mimic the Rays. The Rays are a successful run team, almost to an insane degree, so uhh good luck I guess.
 
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Reynolds is represented by CAA, not Boras. He was a Boras client when he was drafted but isn't anymore.

He's still not going to sign, but it's because of the root of all of the problems: Bob Nutting. He will not spend a dime more than he is forced to, and all of the talk about the replacement of the top end of the front office and spending when the time comes is just propaganda. If he's backed into a corner, they might bump things up to 80 or 90 million for a year or two in 2025 or 2026, but that's way down the road. Actions speak louder than words and it's pretty obvious that there is no plan in place to win with Reynolds.

I really think there should be some mechanism in place to force a payroll floor even without getting into a cap nonsense. Even before the actual luxury tax revenue sharing, there is a set number that is going to all 30 teams. It's not necessary to have open books, but they should be able to be forced to account for every cent of the money to some kind of MLB and/or MLBPA-run accounting board. Any money that is not accounted for should be forfeited, simple as that, and better yet, owners who do it should be put in jeopardy.

The aspiration is clearly to mimic the Rays. The Rays are a successful run team, almost to an insane degree, so uhh good luck I guess.
The pay roll got to 110 at its peak in 2015 and attendance was at 75 percent 17th in all of baseball mlb average is 125 million. It’s why the mlbpa wanted the cbt higher because the Yankees Dodgers Boston will keep that number higher it’s why Oakland Cincinnati voted against it. David Samson was actually laughing on his podcast when he was talking about the negotiations and said the owners were high giving themselves this weekend when the Dodgers lost Jansen because the cbt is working
 
Maybe a hot take is that this is good in the sense that it strips away any lingering aura of patience that there is with the rebuild, new GM, "talent accumulation" etc.

At the end of the day it is just business, and you can also squint and say that Reynolds stepping back slightly in 2022 can still be signed to a longer extension in the offseason, just one that comes down 10-15M in total price or something, which is meaningful to such a deliberately cheap team.

I think the clearer and more logical direction is that fans are forced to hope everything goes perfectly well between now and 2024 and Reynolds is still around as a highly paid late arbitration guy then, who will be on the market if there's not a path to the playoffs that year. This roster is going to lose 100 games and is probably only going to be saved from finishing dead last in MLB by the fact that the Orioles have to play in the AL East.
 
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In better news, Kiley's new rankings are out and the Pirates are 3rd, with him noting that they are the best in quality depth (prospects higher than 40FV). Not sure I can go into great detail since it's behind the paywall, but something noteworthy is that he seems like a high guy on Peguero, ranking him third behind Cruz and Davis and having him 53rd overall (50FV).

I think besides Cruz at #1, there's a lot of ways to argue the exact ordering, and it will be key to convert most of those players to everyday regulars and at least a couple into more than that, along with Cruz, obviously. The pitching doesn't leave a lot of margin for error but I think the hitting actually does, since there are lots of guys who still could take steps further that are currently outside the top-10 or so.

That might be an interesting strategy in general, since it doesn't play to PNC's strengths and also that pitching is way harder for a cheap team to go after in free agency. But if you can build a really threatening offense, maybe you hope to generate 1-2 true impact pitchers and then enough other interesting guys who can be combined with lower level signings and the whole package is boosted by PNC Park. Certainly could be a more exciting path than having some truly outstanding pitching which is let down by an offense that is easy to target because it only has a couple of really good guys.

When the team was good, there was certainly one pretty elite offensive year, but if we can build a lineup 1-9 that has some real impact talent 1-5 and then a range of threatening and versatile options 6-9, that would be a welcome sight, even if it's incredibly frustrating that this plan might not come to fruition until 2025.
 
I simply don't trust Priester's fastball and I think that's why the scouts are dropping him as well. This year will be huge in terms of getting a better idea where he projects in a MLB rotation but he reminds me too much of Mitch Keller, though QP has a better breaking pitch. But it really doesn't matter with a fastball that doesn't move and isn't located consistently. Contreras is the best bet to be an ace at this point. The key for him will be durability and stamina.

Peguero is a bit too high for my liking. I don't see his offensive ceiling on par with Gonzales and his floor is much lower. Plus, Gonzales has looked completely fine to me at 2B. He's not a wizard but just a solid, middle of the road defender and given the inconsistencies at Peggy has shown at SS, can't rank him over Gonzo in an overall sense.

I like his ranking Endy in the top 10.

Swaggerty is not a top 10 prospect until we see him stay healthy and produce. He's done nothing that excites me, though it's been a long time since we've seen him. Swap him out for Jared Jones.
 
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I agree on all fronts. I'm actually starting to see it with Peguero, but it's mostly projection. Could just be the difference between the usually very bad cameras in high A vs. spring training production, but he looks like he is getting bigger to me and if you assume he'll keep trending in that direction while staying smooth in the field, it's easy to see an average regular at an important position as something like his floor.

Conversely with Gonzales, I think what people worry about is that if he doesn't hit like crazy, he's not really bringing a ton to the table. I believe in his tools from the eye test, and don't think it's really fair to start making comparisons with him and somebody like Keston Hiura or Kieboom or whoever, but I think that's why scouts have the preference they do.

With Swaggerty, I think if he stays healthy there's also a nice floor with him due to the carrying skills of speed and defense. But we will need to see it, since it's just been so long. I will say that I was very hyped on him while following him closely when he was with Indy last year.
 
Yeah, and he also did so after a good at-bat where he worked the count, taking good rips and seeing a lot of pitches. When he was on first, he was going to easily steal second were it not for a foul ball. If memory serves, he's struck out twice this spring, both times on borderline pitches that he likely wouldn't do damage with. In general he looks locked in and isn't chasing at all.

It's just mental gymnastic stupidity to put him in the outfield for flexibility reasons. It's cover to suppress his service time, possibly in the long-run as well, since if he did get put at shortstop and hit like this consistently, he would be primed to be crazy expensive in arbitration.

Really disappointing that the start of his year is going to be a casualty of the decision not to try this season. I just hope he isn't injured in AAA or struggling because he's moving around a bunch. It is patently obvious that he would be the second or third best hitter in this lineup if he started on Opening Day.
 
From what I've read, Cruz is adamant about playing SS. Seems with that reach he would make a good first baseman. Or with his arm, right fielder.
 
From what I've read, Cruz is adamant about playing SS. Seems with that reach he would make a good first baseman. Or with his arm, right fielder.
He's too athletic for either -- even though his arm is as good as it gets, I think it would still be a waste not to have him in LF/CF in any case. But shortstop is a much higher value position, and it's not like he's awful out there. He looks very smooth and occasionally has some problems with consistent throws. It's fairly normal SS prospect stuff, except he hits like Aaron Judge and has enough speed to steal 20 bags.

Another hit for him in this inning, off a lefty. I'm glad that Cruz is at least not doing anything that will make it seem like something other than it is when he doesn't go north with the team.
 
He'll be sent down "to work on consistency, getting in reps at secondary positions, etc".

Just mentally preparing you all for the inevitable.

If we're haggling Reynolds over 500K, there is zero chance they're going to let Cruz burn up years of control when leaving him in AAA until the end of May relieves the bean counters of that worry.

But yeah, he deserves to be the opening day SS.
 
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Not that this is anything new

Wow. Don't know that I've ever seen an active player publicly talk shit about another organization's ownership in such a direct way. Hopefully this gets picked up on and becomes a national story embarrassing Nutting and Co. and MLB.
 
If Cruz can play adequate SS, that is such a massive luxury to have his bat there. Go get some other bopper to fill in at 1B and RF.
 
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