OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

There's no hope for it, but I'd really like to see us roll the dice on Teheran as an SP addition. Together with Quintana, there's at least a chance that they give you a solid 300 innings or so combined, and that really could set the stage for getting the most out of other young pitchers without really blocking anyone. I think something that's become less and less of a focus that will bounce back this year is how important consistent innings from the rotation are. With the Pirates, this hasn't been any kind of noticeable thing, but that's largely been because the whole pitching staff has been very bad. Now that it's harder to use tons of relievers and abuse options + short IL stints, I think having rotation anchors will be more important than ever.

Pitching is always coveted, so I am certain that Teheran can probably found some opportunity with a better team that still likely gives him a rotation spot. All that we can do to top that is virtually guarantee the longest possible leash, and be willing to commit more money on a bounceback type deal. He's young enough that a good 2022 could set the stage for him to get at least a nice 3 year deal as an innings eater type.

I don't have tabs on anyone else, really, but we'll see what shakes out when the arbitration deadline passes, as the trade and free agency markets might shift a little bit. One thing I have started to really like about Vogelbach is getting a good AB out of him each time. Especially once Cruz arrives, it will be important for veteran guys in the lineup to have good ABs, which then lessens the ability for rookies to totally get worked over, or the best players to totally be worked around.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah I think the upshot with Mlod is really more of a workhorse innings guy, but that could be pretty valuable, given how much those kinds of guys tend to get paid in free agency. Interested to follow him this year in the upper minors.

Damn, Tucapita Marcano with a really nice swing on that one.

Watched the replay. Not sure how wind-aided it was.

The Frazier trade isn't looking too hot about now but I gotta remember that Tuca is really, really young.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Might further solidify Reynolds staying.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[ChaosAgent]

Pirates have no intention on dealing Reynolds unless they get a super premium, FV60 or better prospect. Or a young ML equivalent.

That isn't to say that they won't trade Reynolds, even this year, but there is absolutely no rush to do so. The return for him doesn't start dropping until next year at earliest, IMO.

To put it in terms of our own team, I'd wager the packages we have been offered are something along the lines of: Keller, Priester, Matt Frazier and Escotto. Headlined by a late bloomer, a 50-100 guy and a former top prospect who has thus far failed to launch.
While we're holding out for something like: Cruz, Priester and Fraizier.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think that the price is too high, and honestly, that the price will remain too high. Teams just don't trade prospects who are graded out like Rodriguez or Abrams anymore except in very rare occasions. If there's actually been a decision not to extend Reynolds, then I think the likeliest outcome will be a trade next offseason, or more likely during next season. But that's a lot of ifs and buts, including (hopefully) some pressure not to do it if 2023 ends up being a somewhat competitive year for us.

I find the news somewhat relieving in any case, because possible deals with the Marlins really didn't entice me at all (setting aside being totally opposed to a trade no matter what).

 

[ChaosAgent]

Let's also use the Reynolds value to appreciate the AA/AAA players in this organization. If you plopped Reynolds circa 2019 into this current system, he'd be ranking somewhere around Fraizier, CSN, Swaggerty and Castillo.

Cheesy post but point being that it the best players from our minor league system may not be the 5 players who are all expecting, and they may be closer than we think.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yes, that's a good point, and I think it speaks to the fungibility of prospects to a certain extent. I've seen Miami fans tweeting about how they wouldn't want to trade Eury Perez straight up for Reynolds, which is only the most extreme example of prospect hugging. I think the overprotectiveness of the highest graded prospects is more or less a bet on how likely that player is to become a star (obviously, I guess), but it's taken by fans as almost a guarantee to become a star.

By contrast, good teams are willing to be pretty liberal with trading prospects, such as the Giants sending us Reynolds or more recently, the Padres sending their recent comp round pick for Voit.

I think the best outcome is still firmly an extension, which probably buys some goodwill for the upcoming losing season as well. Even better would be a Cruz extension right now and a spot on the Opening Day roster, but I'm not holding my breath for either.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Leave Reynolds alone.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yes, that's a good point, and I think it speaks to the fungibility of prospects to a certain extent. I've seen Miami fans tweeting about how they wouldn't want to trade Eury Perez straight up for Reynolds, which is only the most extreme example of prospect hugging. I think the overprotectiveness of the highest graded prospects is more or less a bet on how likely that player is to become a star (obviously, I guess), but it's taken by fans as almost a guarantee to become a star.

By contrast, good teams are willing to be pretty liberal with trading prospects, such as the Giants sending us Reynolds or more recently, the Padres sending their recent comp round pick for Voit.

I think the best outcome is still firmly an extension, which probably buys some goodwill for the upcoming losing season as well. Even better would be a Cruz extension right now and a spot on the Opening Day roster, but I'm not holding my breath for either.

At this point I want to just see another pitcher added. Teheran as you said. Or ideally, a lefty.

The main attraction of the organization this season is again going to be at Indy and below, not at PNC Park.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The only team i was pulling for if Reynolds were to be traded was Seattle because their top prospects are hitters. Kelenic, Rodriguez or Marte with a Kirby/Hancock chaser.

Id be skeptical of trading Reynolds for pitchers only because how often they completely fall apart. And i dont think thats the best way to use your best asset.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Obviously there is no comparison, but maybe with Story off the market, Newman's trade market can come into clearer focus. I don't really see much point in holding onto Newman at this point when that playing time can go to some combination of Cruz, Tucker, Castillo, and even Marcano.

I guess there's some chance Newman has a bounce back start at the plate while maintaining the defense, making him slightly more attractive at the deadline, but realistically Newman is a cheap defense/speed utility guy on any contending team. I think his price tag makes him appealing for that reason.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wilson is getting absolutely slapped around in this game.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like the Cruz + Contreras "need to start in Indy" propaganda train is already in full effect. I really don't buy it at all, even as I would be shocked if either made the Opening Day roster. The reasons are simple: 1) the MLB team isn't trying to compete; and 2) despite the fig leaf of a comp pick, there is still huge incentive to manipulate service time and we are going to do it for both of them.

If anything, I think sending Contreras there is actually more egregious, but they should both be on the team. Contreras' innings should definitely be closely monitored and we should be conservative about when to shut him down towards the end of the summer, but precisely for that reason, there's no sense in wasting his innings on journeymen and nearly-graduated prospects in AAA. The pandemic-shortened season really demonstrated the extent to which teams manipulate service time in general with pitchers, as it's clearly the case that a guy is ready for MLB based on how his actual pitches grade out on a regular basis, and not anything like a set number of innings, etc.

I think the same is true for batters who crush AA hitting. The spike in AAA just isn't all that greater, but at least with Cruz there is some vaguely plausible idea that he was briefly injured and that ABs and regular playing time might be *slightly* more tricky in MLB for him.

I actually wonder if the "reward" callups late last year are now a kind of cover for the team. "You perform, we'll reward you, but then we'll also yank the rug and make sure we have team control over you for the maximum amount of time possible." It's ridiculous -- Cruz is the future, and he's probably going to struggle with MLB offspeed stuff at some point anyways. We should do whatever we can to get him to sign an extension and then get him as many ABs as possible. Even if we don't follow through and move Newman somewhere, it's not going to be that hard to get him in the lineup 5/6 days a week.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In better news, here's today's lineup. The game is again free on MLB.tv.

(In worse news, I think the writing is on the wall for Cruz in terms of being rolled out in the bottom half of lineups when he's played so far. He should be leading off to get max ABs).

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Seems like the Cruz + Contreras "need to start in Indy" propaganda train is already in full effect. I really don't buy it at all, even as I would be shocked if either made the Opening Day roster. The reasons are simple: 1) the MLB team isn't trying to compete; and 2) despite the fig leaf of a comp pick, there is still huge incentive to manipulate service time and we are going to do it for both of them.

If anything, I think sending Contreras there is actually more egregious, but they should both be on the team. Contreras' innings should definitely be closely monitored and we should be conservative about when to shut him down towards the end of the summer, but precisely for that reason, there's no sense in wasting his innings on journeymen and nearly-graduated prospects in AAA. The pandemic-shortened season really demonstrated the extent to which teams manipulate service time in general with pitchers, as it's clearly the case that a guy is ready for MLB based on how his actual pitches grade out on a regular basis, and not anything like a set number of innings, etc.

I think the same is true for batters who crush AA hitting. The spike in AAA just isn't all that greater, but at least with Cruz there is some vaguely plausible idea that he was briefly injured and that ABs and regular playing time might be *slightly* more tricky in MLB for him.

I actually wonder if the "reward" callups late last year are now a kind of cover for the team. "You perform, we'll reward you, but then we'll also yank the rug and make sure we have team control over you for the maximum amount of time possible." It's ridiculous -- Cruz is the future, and he's probably going to struggle with MLB offspeed stuff at some point anyways. We should do whatever we can to get him to sign an extension and then get him as many ABs as possible. Even if we don't follow through and move Newman somewhere, it's not going to be that hard to get him in the lineup 5/6 days a week.

Did you actually think they would start the season in the majors? They are going to need something to get people to buy tickets this summer and the bulk of the prospects missed a year of development thanks to Covid. I listen to David Samson nothing personal podcast former Marlins GM and he has said for a while the cba didn’t help small revenue teams and they are not going to change how they act even with the lottery and the players only cares about the big revenue teams which is going to further separate the haves and have not. In 2 years Soto is leaving DC and Otanhi is leaving LA to the highest bidder.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I didn't think they would start the season in the majors, and that's probably not going to change until there are stronger structures in place to force MLB teams to roster their best players. I think the only way it happens for Cruz is a Newman trade and/or injuries. Contreras is buried behind a bunch of mediocrity even if, from a pure stuff perspective, he's clearly the best pitcher in spring training.

I don't really buy the haves and have not distinction. Look at how the Yankees operate now -- they shuffled pieces around and acquired some helpful talent, and may still be in on one of the Oakland pitchers, but they basically sat out the bidding on Correa (who went to a "small market"), Freeman, and Story.

The spending question in MLB is purely one of will. In any case, there isn't a hard line separating teams, except for perhaps the Pirates, Marlins, A's, and Rays, all of whom refuse to spend anywhere in the ballpark of other teams. Even the Rays are pushing 75-80M payrolls, which is significantly more than what the other teams have done. Washington is also an enormous spender and can keep Soto if they want.

The Pirates could have signed a couple mid-tier FAs and boosted their payroll up to 80M, but they have the automatic defense built in that this somehow wouldn't make them automatic contenders. I think the whole argument would carry more water if it weren't possible to run a payroll around 100-120M and still compete easily with teams spending double that as long as you draft, develop, and trade well. But that's the case, and the only reason a handful of teams refuse to put forth the effort to spend that much every year is because they aren't forced to do so.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think Cruz is going to start in AAA at this point, I think it's dumb but I think it's a service time manipulation thing more than anything else. He'll be called up in May unless he stinks in AAA.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm fine with giving RC a month and a half in AAA. He just turned 22 in November, and doesn't have a lot of experience in the upper minors. Let him get his arm warmed up and primed for the grind of MLB.

Cruz should begin the year in the bigs. Especially if he looks good/great in ST. There is always the option to send him down for a bit if he comes out of the gate looking like shit but we need a big prospect to give fans some "hope" in the early going. Then again, I think we're going to see him hitting 6-8th even though he should be given a chance to hit leadoff as he has throughout his minor league career, maximizing PA's and his speed. I really don't want to see him buried but that's almost surely going to happen with Shelton running the show and unless Newman is moved, he'd probably end up sitting more than he should as well.

Either way, I'd like Cruz up from day 1, starting at SS, then RF, then DH.....RC up in mid to late May after 6ish starts in AAA and then go from there.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I didn't think they would start the season in the majors, and that's probably not going to change until there are stronger structures in place to force MLB teams to roster their best players. I think the only way it happens for Cruz is a Newman trade and/or injuries. Contreras is buried behind a bunch of mediocrity even if, from a pure stuff perspective, he's clearly the best pitcher in spring training.

I don't really buy the haves and have not distinction. Look at how the Yankees operate now -- they shuffled pieces around and acquired some helpful talent, and may still be in on one of the Oakland pitchers, but they basically sat out the bidding on Correa (who went to a "small market"), Freeman, and Story.

The spending question in MLB is purely one of will. In any case, there isn't a hard line separating teams, except for perhaps the Pirates, Marlins, A's, and Rays, all of whom refuse to spend anywhere in the ballpark of other teams. Even the Rays are pushing 75-80M payrolls, which is significantly more than what the other teams have done. Washington is also an enormous spender and can keep Soto if they want.

The Pirates could have signed a couple mid-tier FAs and boosted their payroll up to 80M, but they have the automatic defense built in that this somehow wouldn't make them automatic contenders. I think the whole argument would carry more water if it weren't possible to run a payroll around 100-120M and still compete easily with teams spending double that as long as you draft, develop, and trade well. But that's the case, and the only reason a handful of teams refuse to put forth the effort to spend that much every year is because they aren't forced to do so.

The Pirates only have to look within the division at Cincinnati who did spend and had nothing to show for it. Even when they did spend and had the 2nd best record in the National league attendance never got past 15th in the majors. The Pirates were out spending the rays before last season and Tampa is flipping meadows and Tyler soon.
The Yankees operate at I should have a championship roster at 200 million no more. They will spend for 2 years then re set the tax threshold. Boston gave away Mookie and DC gave away Turner baseball is broken. The players don’t want a floor and unlike football they don’t share tv revenue. Hockey had a flat cap for 3 years nfl cap went down nba has rules to keep Beal in dc Greek freek in Milwaukee and dame in Portland they have bird rights so mid market and low market teams can compete

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Cruz just did it again. He's comically ready and even if he had some defensive bumps, would be a very strong candidate for rookie of the year (and the extra pick that was added as "incentive" not to suppress service time).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Oneil Cruz just hit a baseball into the Atlantic....if he's not starting on day 1, I'll legit be pissed.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Off the roof of that building beyond the bullpen in right....on a pitch below the strike zone.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The Pirates only have to look within the division at Cincinnati who did spend and had nothing to show for it. Even when they did spend and had the 2nd best record in the National league attendance never got past 15th in the majors. The Pirates were out spending the rays before last season and Tampa is flipping meadows and Tyler soon.
The Yankees operate at I should have a championship roster at 200 million no more. They will spend for 2 years then re set the tax threshold. Boston gave away Mookie and DC gave away Turner baseball is broken. The players don’t want a floor and unlike football they don’t share tv revenue. Hockey had a flat cap for 3 years nfl cap went down nba has rules to keep Beal in dc Greek freek in Milwaukee and dame in Portland they have bird rights so mid market and low market teams can compete

I definitely don't disagree that the game is broken and that this is how the Yankees will operate, but there isn't a huge competitive advantage to spending lots of money such that the Pirates have an extraordinary challenge in front of them. Teams that generate less revenue definitely have less of a margin of error in terms of injury luck, bad contracts, bad development, and bad drafting, but they arbitrarily put themselves in bad positions by spending well below average when they don't have to.

The idea that spending doesn't automatically = winning is also an argument that winning can be done on such an extreme budget, but I think in the end, there's nothing that justifies continually running payrolls that are sub-50M. If your team truly stinks and has to trade top talent, then naturally it's gonna go down for a few years. But for a lot of these teams, it's 8 out of 10 years, and they are just pocketing money rather than putting up some attempt to win.

I think the Reds made mistakes and also that their current dismantling is somewhat shameful. Things would definitely be easier if there were a real floor, but the only way that is going to happen is if a structure was put in place which would deny the players even more of their share of the pie.

Pragmatically, I think the best bet for both the players and for fans of teams like the Pirates is if there were caveats to national revenue sharing money that it had to demonstratively go to the payroll within two years or something, and be accounted for, since "we put the money into international development" is a total black box. Maybe it will be an outcome of the lawsuit against the four teams who abuse the system to pocket revenue with artificially low payrolls.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And just like that, beat writers everywhere rejoice as Cruz flubs an easy ground out for an error. Honestly, I don't think that kind of thing is a big deal -- it's just a brain fart that's going to be magnified because the team is putting propaganda out that he should start in AAA.

If Cruz was pulling the 1B off a lot, etc., then there's more of a case to send him down, but even so, it's not like the MLB team is trying to win. I'm not convinced that the defensive reps he is going to get in AAA are going to be meaningful. The biggest real problem is that Newman is penciled into the spot, and Newman improved his defense / is a veteran, etc etc. If we were serious about Cruz, then we should be trying to move Newman in a deal for some pitching or an OF who hasn't clicked yet or something.