OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[ImporterExporter]

And that's why they'll send Oneil down to Indy. Boots an easy grounder.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

What's annoying about the Cruz situation in particular is that there's often almost nothing to gain by manipulating service anyways. The more you engage in it, the weirder the dynamics eventually get in the case that you do want to fully commit to the player.

Right now with Reynolds and Hayes, there are plenty of reasons for both to bide their time. With a better offensive year, Hayes has more leverage. If Reynolds repeats his 2021, then he has a lot more leverage and one less arbitration year to worry about.

Cruz is a total "clean slate", which gives the Pirates an enormous advantage in any kind of negotiation. And from a PR perspective, signing him to a mega-extension would be a clear win with very little actual risk. Kris Bryant is the most obvious comparison because any team-controlled player is not going to top what he did under club control for the Cubs, where he had MVP type years and the record raises, etc., in arbitration. Over 6 years, he made about 60 million.

If you start from Cruz at 6/45M, you can try to buy years 7 and 8 for 18-20, and maybe have option years for years 9 and 10 (ages 31 and 32 for him) for about the same, and include a buyout for year 9 just as a failsafe for yourself. That's a contract that's like 10 years, 125-140M or so, for a ballpark. If he's your franchise player for a solid 5-6 of those years, that's an insane steal. By contrast, the service time manipulation allows you to have guaranteed club control of him for perhaps what I am calling year 7 here, which is his age 29 season. That payoff just isn't that great unless your sole purpose is to nickel and dime every advantage you can.

And even cynically, you can nail down this kind of team friendly extension and never really pay him many of the 18-20M years if you don't feel like it. You'd still be able to get a decent trade from a team with an actual payroll for a major slugger in their years 29-32 seasons.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Any word on how Priester, Bolton and Thomas looked? I don't like seeing the walks with Priester.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Didn't get as close of an eye on Bolton as I'd have wanted but he seemed solid. Priester looked very bad to me -- his fastball is not good, and in general his control wasn't there in this one. Thomas was a mix, had issues with the walks but didn't let them overcome him and threw some nice fastballs with sink and one or two good offspeed pitches. Priester seemed like it could be rust.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Didn't get as close of an eye on Bolton as I'd have wanted but he seemed solid. Priester looked very bad to me -- his fastball is not good, and in general his control wasn't there in this one. Thomas was a mix, had issues with the walks but didn't let them overcome him and threw some nice fastballs with sink and one or two good offspeed pitches. Priester seemed like it could be rust.

So maybe the @Gallatin stuff about how Priester's entire offseason/life was going to be a continuous Rocky improvement montage was a bit overblown.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He did have a clean second innings, so it might have been rust (also only had my eye on it a bit). I'm not _worried_ about Priester, but I do think it's worth pumping the brakes on him in terms of being a dominant SP. It depends a little bit on definitions, but I think what's most appealing about him is that he should project well to be an innings anchor and above average. Without some changes to his fastball shape, I don't see a dominant pitcher, but it's not out of the question that he could find these changes in AA this year.

The problem is that the strength of his other pitches would play better off a better fastball, in addition to the fastball just generally still being the most important pitch. We'll see, I think he's too young to really declare anything too definitively, but the way it's trending is that his fastball won't be any better than average, and that's not a recipe for a genuine impact pitcher. That said, a stable #3 type who gives you a chance to win every game is still an extremely valuable (and increasingly rare) player.

 

[ChaosAgent]

He did have a clean second innings, so it might have been rust (also only had my eye on it a bit). I'm not _worried_ about Priester, but I do think it's worth pumping the brakes on him in terms of being a dominant SP. It depends a little bit on definitions, but I think what's most appealing about him is that he should project well to be an innings anchor and above average. Without some changes to his fastball shape, I don't see a dominant pitcher, but it's not out of the question that he could find these changes in AA this year.

The problem is that the strength of his other pitches would play better off a better fastball, in addition to the fastball just generally still being the most important pitch. We'll see, I think he's too young to really declare anything too definitively, but the way it's trending is that his fastball won't be any better than average, and that's not a recipe for a genuine impact pitcher. That said, a stable #3 type who gives you a chance to win every game is still an extremely valuable (and increasingly rare) player.

Yeah, the consensus is that the fastball limits his ceiling at the upper levels.

In a way we've seen this before with Keller. Honestly even Taillon's fastball lacked the right movement IMO which took some right-tail outcomes off the board.

Giving my head a shake and re-setting back to pre-lockout days, I still think the hitting in the system is way ahead of the pitching. NH imported his impact pitching through Morton, Liriano, Burnett and Volquez. And with the Benedict/Searage way. Jury's still out on what Cherington can do at the ML level. But as you and I both agree, his record of finding ML players is suspect at best. Don't even get me started on the early returns on Oscar Marin.

 

[Coastal Kev]

Off the roof of that building beyond the bullpen in right....on a pitch below the strike zone.

That ball was f’n crushed!

 

[ChaosAgent]

I have very high hopes for Endy Rodriguez this year. Guessing they platoon catch/DH/move around him and Davis at Greensboro to start. The scouting reports indicate he is a better catcher than Davis - although Davis has the cannon.

My gut says he obliterates the ball in Greensboro and finds himself in Altoona by June.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Oneil Cruz is an absolute f***ing unit.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I have very high hopes for Endy Rodriguez this year. Guessing they platoon catch/DH/move around him and Davis at Greensboro to start. The scouting reports indicate he is a better catcher than Davis - although Davis has the cannon.

My gut says he obliterates the ball in Greensboro and finds himself in Altoona by June.

Same. He's got bigger upside than the talking heads think. Very athletic kid and if Davis doesn't figure out the receiving end of catching, Endy has a legit shot to make it. Also going to keep a close eye on Jared Jones. Those are my 2 key lower level guys people need to hone in on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Oneil Cruz's 6-foot-7 defense | 03/22/2022

Hot Stove breaks down Oneil Cruz's strong defense as a 6-foot-7 shortstop and his offensive potential

www.mlb.com

 

[ChaosAgent]

Quintana...yikes.

 

[dogthateats]

 

[Empoleon8771]

Stratton has actually been a pretty solid reliever for the Pirates, I didn't realize that he was at a 3.69 ERA and a 3.76 FIP over 123 games with them.

I wonder if he could be a trade candidate at some point, he probably wouldn't bring back much but it may be worthwhile to look at.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not so worried about Quintana yet, as a veteran just doing whatever he needs to do for the season. Remember how awful Tyler Anderson was for the entirety of ST last year?

Stratton is definitely an extremely useful and versatile RP, though I am also of the mindset that with a deep system already in terms of quantity, it's worth hanging onto him unless the offer is really appealing. Honestly, even though he's the hometown guy, Bednar is the RP to maximize value with if we really aren't going to think about contending until 2024 or whatever.

I really hope that we are not going to arbitration with Reynolds. That would be an enormous red flag and frankly almost too embarrassing given the already-embarrassing payroll.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The ghost runner is almost unbelievably dumb. I don't think there's anyone who actually likes it. Shortening games is perfectly valid, as nobody wants to see a 14 or 15 inning game on a Wednesday night unless they are truly mentally deranged. But the ghost runner on second is already a gimmick that basically encourages teams to play boring baseball. If you are going to go this route, you might as well concoct some other kind of gimmick, like normal extra innings for the 10th and maybe 11th, and then after that each team sends their best three hitters up or something in some kind of end-the-game-fast-but-in-a-way-that-random-fans-might-actually-tune-in-for manner.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Not far away from home run derby OT

 

[dogthateats]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't want to be melodramatic, but short of there being an extension in the works that avoids arbitration, it's hard not to see this as completely disastrous. The only reason to take him to arbitration is to further nickel and dime in the context of a 35-40M payroll. It can't bode well for an extension in the future if there's not going to be a surprise announcement of one before the arbitration hearing actually happens.

And if you want to push it one further: it's another sign that the true target window doesn't begin until 2024, meaning that Reynolds and Hayes will both be traded. That's the same logic behind arbitrarily holding Cruz in AAA to start the year.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I tried to warn you all. I see no reason for getting upset at Reynolds doing what he needs to do. This is Nutting. No one else. It's not Cherington, or any other person below Nutting.

DJ, I admire your caring for this team and baseball in general. I just don't understand how actually thought there was any shot at BR signing an extension, especially after the monster year he just put up. We probably sent him a Polanco like offer before 2021, trying to buy low. He bet on himself, killed it, and now has zero reason to commit to this team long term.

And again, this goes back to ownership, which squarely falls on the shoulders of 1 person. The idea that you can sign Reynolds to a 6-7 year deal, buying out FA years 5 years down the road (need to account for where FA contracts will be then as well) for less than 20M per year, is insane to me. He's an easy 150M/7 year guy right now. Even with 4 years left. His FA years, even at 31, 32, 33, are 20-25M per year. Zero doubt in my mind. Guys who aren't 6+ WAR valuation are getting similar contracts.

We have him for 4 more years. There is no chance he's dealt before the season starts, or during the season, unless the return is massive. We need to see how this team plays out and where we are heading into the off season before any real decision can be made about moving him. He's ours through 2025. Even if we're on a 2024 window, he can still help the front end of a winner. I'm not about to burn PNC down because we didn't extend a guy who was never going to extend after 2021 anyway.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This tweet takes me off the ledge a bit, so I'll wait and see, but the front office should be downright embarrassed if this hits arbitration. Would be a complete embarrassment for this team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It is Nutting, 100%, I don't disagree about that. Without getting into the weeds about exactly how bad the 4 years of team control disadvantages Reynolds, a 7/150M contract is affordable for any team in MLB and the only reasons not to do it are 1) your team is too cheap (Nutting) or 2) you think there's no way Reynolds will maintain a similar pace as 2021 over the length of the contract.

I do think the decision to file for arbitration rests with Cherington, as that has been the approach he's taken before. I don't think it's out of the question that the front office thinks he played over his head last year, and it's definitely plausible that he'll have trouble repeating the same results. But just in terms of the 2022 situation, arbitration is an ugly process where the team advocates for why a player is not worth what they are asking. The difference between the two camps can't be more than 1-2M unless the Pirates are already starting with an absurdly low ball offer that has no historical comparison in terms of arbitration.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly, I don't even care about the long term deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Pirates don't want to invest an 8 figure contract to Reynolds, and I get it.

That doesn't excuse how bat shit insane it is to go to arbitration with your best player when your god damn payroll is like $30 million. A team with a that payroll taking your best player to arbitration on a 1 year deal is legitimately one of the most embarrassing things I've ever seen. It's not just being cheap, it's being spitefully cheap. It's nothing short of petty.

Who gives a shit if he wants $5.5 million while you only want to pay him $4.5 million when your payroll is so low already? If this team was tight on money and was doing that, I'd at least understand it. But they're absolutely not.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't buy that going to arb. is on Cherington at all. Again, if he had a genie in a bottle, he'd pony up the extra mil/mil and a half that is probably the gap right now. The owner simply isn't willing to spend, for reasons unknown beyond he's cheap.

There is way over the top conspiracy level theories that teams like the Bucs simply exist to procure and develop supplemental top talent for the big market teams to poach via trade or FA down the line. I don't want to go that far, as we've seen Nutting spending triple the money he's on the hook for now. Pl;us other small market teams have had successes in the past. It is odd that we're still hovering around 30M when the reality is we should easily be profitable spending significantly more.