OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[bigdaddyk88]

Not going to arbitration with your best player is the bare minimum that you should expect from a MLB team. So while it's better than the alternative, it's still not 'good'.

Hopefully it lays the groundwork for a long term deal, but the fact they hadn't even approached him about one before now is not encouraging. Seems like they don't think he'll be here when they will be competitive.

The Yankees are going to arbitration with judge it’s not that big of a deal.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, he took the deal, so I would guess they agreed to speak again this Summer and work on a longer extension. Or maybe I am being naive

This is my hope. I do think, without disparaging Reynolds, that 2021 is probably the ceiling for his skill set. I think he can maintain it in a lot of years, but if the power is not there for a stretch, or his defense fades, then he's a little bit of a step back.

This definitely could also be a little bit naive but I think the front office might want another season of data before trying to commit to him long term. I think the main question is the defense, but he's so solid that there's no reason to think he'll slow down there until he's 33 or so.

We'll see -- the pessimist in me really wonders if not engaging him this winter was a big missed opportunity given that he's willing to take this deal. It's hard to reach that conclusion, since arbitration fixes things so much and this basically just guarantees Reynolds a solid payday, but it's well within the realm of possibility that he'd beat the total for next year I think. We could have done something similar that we did with Hayes in terms of front loading a contact, committing 15M or so to him this year and next.

2022 15M
2023 15M
2024 12.5M
2025 12.5M
2026 12.5M
2027 16.5M

That's 6 years, 85 million, which is a little bit under where we've kicked some numbers around, but I just did even numbers to map it out quickly. We have no idea if Reynolds' camp would even entertain discussions beyond the 2024 year, but unless you assume he will track identically with Springer or someone similar, that's still a quite decent 3 year payday for an OF and a huge raise in terms of what he'll make in his arbitration years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This is a new interesting wrinkle. Maybe they have something like a framework to revisit in the offseason.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Happy they avoided arbitration. Seems like a solid win for both sides at this point, unless Reynolds crashes or goes nuclear.

I'm done worrying about his extension or eventual trade. I think he'll eventually be dealt, but if we can push the winning buttons earlier than expected, get more people in the park and drive up revenue, maybe the tide will turn. We need to be competitive sooner than later for his extending having any real viability.

 

[Factorial]

Solid news. I was going to say earlier that I think the question of when we call up Cruz is actually more of a test than Reynolds, since the best case scenario with Reynolds is a two year deal that avoids arbitration/any ugliness, and then a put up or shut up time for an extension this offseason.

A test of what? It only makes sense to wait until June. Whether Cruz is here now or in June won't affect this season.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It seems about right. His arbitration award for this year would have been about $4.5 million, so he would have needed $9 million in arbitration next year to get that.

That's pretty much on the nose for what I was expecting.

And inflation is a real thing now. $ today >>> $ tomorrow.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

A test of what? It only makes sense to wait until June. Whether Cruz is here now or in June won't affect this season.

Whether and to what extent they are actually committed to a player-centric culture and building for the future. I think it's a loser's mentality to just write seasons off entirely, even if playoffs/hanging in the race/.500/pick your benchmark are all long shots.

They are also irrelevant to the player. Cruz looks like he is ready to handle the challenge of MLB pitching, and the more experience he gets now, the better off he'll be in terms of getting to the level he needs to be at to help the team compete next year and beyond. If he underperforms, you can always send him back down to AAA.

More specifically, though, I think it's a test in terms of the long term games that the front office will continue to play. Firmly committing to avoiding Super Two only makes sense if you are seeking above all else to only pay him pre-arb rates for the next three years. If he performs and you decide that you're willing to commit to him long-term, then the Super Two game is irrelevant.

I get that the front office/ownership is probably going to need to see some level of results before they hand out even team friendly long term deals. But even just hypothetically, Reynolds and Cruz could both be extended in the next 18 months, and Reynolds paid quite a bit in his highest years, and the payroll would still have plenty of room before it gets to the level of a serious, long-term and sustainable small market floor.

We still have to see what Cruz will do over the next 3-4 weeks, but if he's performing, then keeping him in AAA for extra games is a step backwards. Based on service, he can actually be called up within the next week and a half or two weeks and we'll gain the 7th year of automatic control unless he wins ROY. The only reason Super Two would even be a goal would be if we wanted to be paying him a rookie salary in 2025.


In any case, all this stuff is just mental gymnastics and hypotheticals. Cruz would be the third or fourth best hitter on the team and make them better immediately. Give him and Castillo a bunch of run and see what happens. The NL Central is bad enough that we'd likely hang around for longer than people think.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

All of the beat writers posted nearly the same thing verbatim about "other contract structures", so I'd say it's likely that their source is Ben Cherington texting them talking points. Wouldn't read anything into the possibility of a long-term extension one way or the other.

We'll simply know based on their actions after this year. The payroll "room" is there, even if Reynolds gets a traditional deal rather than something front loaded like Hayes which could help with revenue flow. It's possible Reynolds doesn't want to even get into talking about his post-arbitration years since he could very well follow in Springer's footsteps with a long-term deal, but that's also where a huge guarantee and significant arbitration raise can factor in.

If you are Reynolds, yes, it could end up being an overall mistake if you left 30-40M total on the table, but there's still so much that could go wrong. And even if you took 80-100M or something, it's still possible to earn a couple 10-15M years if you are performing when you are 32 and at the end of your extension. It's hard to say with a lot of certainty -- I think in a lot of cases, guys like Springer get their deals because the teams who sign them really want to win a championship in the early part of the deal and don't care that they will have an "overpaid" player for 2-3 years at the end of the deal. Reynolds could get similar treatment, but he could also end up with 4-year offers that pay him much closer to what a 6-year extension would.

This is all just spinning wheels and repeating myself, but I do think that if the Pirates were willing to go to the 80-100M range with him, he'd be willing to sign. He just doesn't strike me as a guy who would want to force the issue and take the risk for the absolute max payout possible.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Even though it doesn't change too much for Reynolds long-term future (and they still might ship him off to the Yankees or whoeverthef*** anyway), the combo of this news plus the Hayes news is the most encouraged I've been by the Pirates in a long time.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Castro off to a fantastic start. He's going to push for the promotion back to the bigs sooner than most if he keeps up his stellar bat work.

31 PA
22 AB
.409/1.230
9 H
1 2B
1 3B
1 HR
6 R
5 RBI
8 BB
7 K

Love seeing the walks beyond the hit parade to start. Another guy who can play around the diamond. Still just 22 years old. Hope he gets a nice look a little further down the line.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Soto and Bell are going to be a big test for the Pirates' right handed pitchers in this series.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Happy they avoided arbitration. Seems like a solid win for both sides at this point, unless Reynolds crashes or goes nuclear.

I'm done worrying about his extension or eventual trade. I think he'll eventually be dealt, but if we can push the winning buttons earlier than expected, get more people in the park and drive up revenue, maybe the tide will turn. We need to be competitive sooner than later for his extending having any real viability.

My thoughts exactly

 

[ImporterExporter]

No Castillo again:

 

[Empoleon8771]

I genuinely can't see how they can sign Reynolds to a long-term deal after this deal, unless Nutting suddenly opens up his wallet or Reynolds regresses into just a "very good" player.

I actually think Reynolds regressing a bit is arguably the best case scenario with him. I looked up AJ Pollock and I really like the comparison for Reynolds, here is how his career went starting in 2013:

-2013: 137 games, 3.1 WAR
-2014: 75 games, 3.4 WAR
-2015: 157 games, 6.9 WAR, GG and receiving MVP votes
-2016: 12 games, 0.4 WAR
-2017: 112 games, 2.9 WAR
-2018: 113 games, 2.2 WAR

After 2018, Pollock signed a 5 year, $60 million deal with the Dodgers. If Reynolds takes a step back in the next few years into what Pollock was from 2016-2018, he'd still be about a 3.5-4 WAR player per 162 games. I think the Pirates could reasonably pay Reynolds what he'd be looking for in a contract if he would be that caliber of player, as opposed to the 6 WAR player for 162 games that he was last year.

Even if he regresses to 5 WAR per 162 games, I think he'd probably be too expensive for this team. Cain got 5 years and $80 million while Marte got 4 years and $78 million, and both of those guys were about 5 WAR per 162 game guys in the previous 2 years.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No Castillo again is really a little bit too much... only thing I can think is that maybe he'll play tomorrow, do what he always does and have good ABs, and then get two more starts Saturday and Sunday vs LHP. He should be the starting second baseman.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Brubaker is still horrid.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Shelton deserves this kind of embarrassment. Park has no business playing in the OF at all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hoy Park falls into the same category as Tucker: he can't play OF defense.

I don't get Shelton's obsession with trying to play guys who have only played IF coming through the minors in the OF.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Park doing a nice El Decaf impression out there in right

 

[ImporterExporter]

Brubaker is still horrid.

Going to be a long night it seems.

Bums.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hoy Park falls into the same category as Tucker: he can't play OF defense.

I don't get Shelton's obsession with trying to play guys who have only played IF coming through the minors in the OF.

I actually posted this before just seeing Park botch another play in OF.

Park has a total of 13 starts in the OF in his career. He has about 550 at 2B or SS. Why are you trying to force a square peg into a round hole?

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hoy Park falls into the same category as Tucker: he can't play OF defense.

I don't get Shelton's obsession with trying to play guys who have only played IF coming through the minors in the OF.

Shelton is an idiot. I hope they can him after this year and bring in new blood to coach up the youngsters.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Shelton is an idiot. I hope they can him after this year and bring in new blood to coach up the youngsters.

Shelton shouldn't be the manager for this team when they become good. I've seen nothing from him in his 2+ years here that makes me think he should stay.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Vogelbach about 20 years ago:

 

[td_ice]

Park doing a nice El Decaf impression out there in right

That was ugly. That's a fairly routine catch.