OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Cruz completely in another reality at the dish lately. The K rate is simply not sustainable over the course of a season/career.

I"m reserving any judgement until Shelton and Haines are shot into the sun.
 
Cruz completely in another reality at the dish lately. The K rate is simply not sustainable over the course of a season/career.

I"m reserving any judgement until Shelton and Haines are shot into the sun.
I think he was just really awful today. In general I think he is seeing the ball a lot better, but he's obviously pretty frustrated right now, and rightly so.

What a miserable week on top of a miserable month on top of another miserable month on top of a miserable season.

Edit: just to be clear, I think the results need to be better, but I'm still sticking with him being in an adjustment period and beginning to turn the corner in terms of consistency.
 
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Cruz completely in another reality at the dish lately. The K rate is simply not sustainable over the course of a season/career.

I"m reserving any judgement until Shelton and Haines are shot into the sun.
He’s lost and idk how many times he has to look at strike one and two before he makes an adjustment. The sustainability Of the K rate is unknown because he is in the early stages of his career. They need someone in the organization that knows how to develop hitters. And Cruz needs to be smarter at the plate.
 
I'm not upset at Cruz, to be clear, just worried the current coaching staff is going to completely ruin him because said coaching staff will remain in place next year, thus the circus continues.

This team is a f***ing joke. Good on the guys calling the game to just go silent.

 
I don't honestly see hope outside of significant external additions. Our homegrown guys are mediocre at the MLB level.

And since significant external additions won't happen, we will top out at 85ish wins over the next 3-4 years
 
I don't honestly see hope outside of significant external additions. Our homegrown guys are mediocre at the MLB level.

And since significant external additions won't happen, we will top out at 85ish wins over the next 3-4 years
Probably the 8th time you’ve said this. Right? Wrong? Unknown. The roster will look markedly different 3-4 years from now. The homegrown guys have loud tools. They also have no coaching. The rumors of Bob Nutting wanting to spend more to lock up guys like reynolds is awesome. But holy shit they can’t go to the dollar store for coaches anymore.
 
I think they badly, badly need to bring in an actual everyday bat next year. The lineup needs a guy like Mancini or Haniger, and they need to hit on whoever they sign too. It's something that has not ever happened and I'm not expecting it to happen soon, but even if Hayes surges back and Cruz improves rapidly, the lineup is the main reason we are losing so many games IMO.

The other huge problem is that Reynolds is obviously extremely defeated right now and it's hard to blame him. Trading him would be probably provoke a minor outrage, though I doubt they'd care about that. It would also look bad from a process standpoint, because you'd get less for him than if you had made a "tough call" and done it last winter.
 
Probably the 8th time you’ve said this. Right? Wrong? Unknown. The roster will look markedly different 3-4 years from now. The homegrown guys have loud tools. They also have no coaching. The rumors of Bob Nutting wanting to spend more to lock up guys like reynolds is awesome. But holy shit they can’t go to the dollar store for coaches anymore.

Probably the 100th time that you've scapegoated the ML coaching staff and not the player development, talent evaluation or, ya know, the guy who hired the coaching staff.

Right? Wrong? Unknown.
 
Probably the 100th time that you've scapegoated the ML coaching staff and not the player development, talent evaluation or, ya know, the guy who hired the coaching staff.

Right? Wrong? Unknown.
It’s actually not. I’ve mentioned before that the entire organization lacks the ability to develop hitters And I’m not sure it’s scapegoating to say the ML hitting coach, who has already been fired twice, is atrocious.

But I guess it’s all moot because you know what the team will look like in 2025 and that they will, at best, cap out at 85 wins.
 
I think they badly, badly need to bring in an actual everyday bat next year. The lineup needs a guy like Mancini or Haniger, and they need to hit on whoever they sign too. It's something that has not ever happened and I'm not expecting it to happen soon, but even if Hayes surges back and Cruz improves rapidly, the lineup is the main reason we are losing so many games IMO.

The other huge problem is that Reynolds is obviously extremely defeated right now and it's hard to blame him. Trading him would be probably provoke a minor outrage, though I doubt they'd care about that. It would also look bad from a process standpoint, because you'd get less for him than if you had made a "tough call" and done it last winter.
Reynolds went to the front office and told them not to trade him. He likes being here and he sees the talent building around the organization. They do need a true bat, preferable right handed, a legit #2 starter (that would be our ace), and about 2 solid bullpen arms
 
It’s actually not. I’ve mentioned before that the entire organization lacks the ability to develop hitters And I’m not sure it’s scapegoating to say the ML hitting coach, who has already been fired twice, is atrocious.

But I guess it’s all moot because you know what the team will look like in 2025 and that they will, at best, cap out at 85 wins.

You are in your rights to have hope.

But when I see that basically every prospect I was excited about sucks at the MLB level, mine has extinguished.
If we really did just get lucky with some pickups in 2012-2013, shifting+the Searage approach, and maybe the tail end of some league-wide incompetence, maybe we can hit that string of luck again.

Cause on the merits this tank and build back isn't going to work. The rollercoaster is going to accelerate but not make it up the hill. Like 8 hitting prospects have gotten a chance this year and most have bombed. Probably means our ability to evaluate and/or develop them is flawed, or isn't as perfect as needed given our constraints. We celebrate pitchers turning out to be functional but the threshold should be "good."

But hey, hope we catch some lightning in a bottle. I really wanted to have hope but this season has ripped it away.
 
You are in your rights to have hope.

But when I see that basically every prospect I was excited about sucks at the MLB level, mine has extinguished.
If we really did just get lucky with some pickups in 2012-2013, shifting+the Searage approach, and maybe the tail end of some league-wide incompetence, maybe we can hit that string of luck again.

Cause on the merits this tank and build back isn't going to work. The rollercoaster is going to accelerate but not make it up the hill. Like 8 hitting prospects have gotten a chance this year and most have bombed. Probably means our ability to evaluate and/or develop them is flawed, or isn't as perfect as needed given our constraints. We celebrate pitchers turning out to be functional but the threshold should be "good."

But hey, hope we catch some lightning in a bottle. I really wanted to have hope but this season has ripped it away.
And then you say all this and I’m 100% in agreement lmao

I agreed with BC’s approach to blowing it up and starting over. But, to your point, you can’t solely build through the draft. They have to sign ML players to fill spots. Not wait for every prospect to hit at every position. Because that never happens.
 
And then you say all this and I’m 100% in agreement lmao

I agreed with BC’s approach to blowing it up and starting over. But, to your point, you can’t solely build through the draft. They have to sign ML players to fill spots. Not wait for every prospect to hit at every position. Because that never happens.
Thanks.

For me the most depressing part of this year, easily, has been how collectively bad the AAA guys have been. It isn't even the VanMeters and Gamels of the world. It's that Mitchell, Castillo, Madris, Swaggerty, Suwinski nosedived...Marcano started well but now looks pretty bad...all of this is kind of leading me to devalue our prospects in general. I'm no longer interested honestly in what's going on at A-Ball.

Hell I noticed the broadcast booth stopped their like, interviews with MILB players midway through the year.

There's a version of this year where we have the exact same record but Suwinski and one other non-Cruz player emerge as stone-cold locks to be regulars going forward. And Hayes puts up a .750 OPS. That version would bring some excitement going forward.
 
I don't think Reynolds wants to leave or anything like that, but it's put up or shut up time in terms of the front office and ownership. There have been gestures and even the start of signs towards committing to next year, but it's mostly talk right now. The bare minimum is extending him, but it's going to take at least one other ML bat as well. Paying market value for Haniger or (my preference) Mancini would go a long way, but we've never done it before, so I am not going to hold my breath.

The one thing I'd pump the brakes on is writing off all the prospects who have debuted this year. Not sure if that's a fair characterization, and I don't want to block questions about coaching or PD, but I do think development is non-linear and some players have shown good signs. It's definitely not enough to round out a roster, which is the main point, but I think some of the depth will stick to help out, and look better as they get better/if they are pushed into being less vital because another competent veteran is brought in.

For my money, the most urgent PD question is the status of the top prospects, primarily Davis and Gonzales, and especially Gonzales. For Davis, it's a question of staying on the field, but Gonzalaes has now had that question two years running, and a looming question of whether the hit tool is going to be there or not. Gonzo's floor was proclaimed with a high degree of confidence as at least being a low end regular, and while it's a little too early for doom and gloom, failing to convert on that is another big blow.

The pitching has been positive signs from a number of guys, but it barely needs to be said that a major injury to one of the main guys would be a huge setback.
 
The one thing I'd pump the brakes on is writing off all the prospects who have debuted this year. Not sure if that's a fair characterization, and I don't want to block questions about coaching or PD, but I do think development is non-linear and some players have shown good signs. It's definitely not enough to round out a roster, which is the main point, but I think some of the depth will stick to help out, and look better as they get better/if they are pushed into being less vital because another competent veteran is brought in.
Maybe I'm not making myself clear.

Some of them could blossom later on, individually. But from a probalistic standpoint you would have downgrade the cohort overall, right? Or the chances that the cohort (outside of Cruz who is in his own category and performed adequately or maybe above) will produce 3 MLB regulars looks nonexistent. 2 looks like a stretch.

Development is non-linear, I agree, but I'm sure BC would kill for a couple of linear or above-linear performances from them right about now.
 
Yes, that's totally fair. I don't think there's much optimism to glean for 2023 from 2022, even taking into account caveats and projecting a few turnaround situations.

Weirdly, the strangest form of optimism that I think could be proposed is that if ownership/the front office is going to actually extend Reynolds, then given the state of things, it doesn't really make sense not to at least chase a mid-tier addition and some other talent in free agency/creative trades this winter.
 
Yes, that's totally fair. I don't think there's much optimism to glean for 2023 from 2022, even taking into account caveats and projecting a few turnaround situations.

Weirdly, the strangest form of optimism that I think could be proposed is that if ownership/the front office is going to actually extend Reynolds, then given the state of things, it doesn't really make sense not to at least chase a mid-tier addition and some other talent in free agency/creative trades this winter.

At this point they pretty much have to improve in 2023. I think if they don't win 70 everyone's getting fired.
Though I think at a different point in the lifecycle...if this was 2019 again, and it really feels like 2017 or 2019 again, we'd probably ship Reynolds off.

For that matter, I'm almost certain that he would have been traded at the 2021 deadline or last offseason if the FO had known had badly this year was going to go for everyone. Maxed his value.

To think purely in WAR the route to a 20-win position group next year involves:
*12 WAR from Reynolds/Hayes/Cruz (and without the RISP incompetence that basically nullifies Reynolds' current season)
*4-5 WAR from 2 other internal guys. Most likely being Suwinski, Marcano and Castro at this point
*A good external addition
*Replacement-level from the rest
*A catcher
*Only 1 JVM-esque whipping boy. Not JVM, Yoshi and a bunch of others as in this year.

If I squint, I can see it. I have some faith in Reynolds being closer to 2021 in all situations, Cruz constructing a "Pedro Alvarez 2012" season offensively and Suwinski being league average. And we probably bring back Perez at least for a catcher with Endy hurtling his way to the big club.
 
I think this year has mostly been a failure for this team. It has been an improvement from last year, but the improvement is so marginal that it shouldn't be viewed as a success. Any sort of improvement with the pitching staff is negated out by Reynolds regressing and pretty much no one else showing a pulse at the plate.

This team is multiple worthwhile additions away from doing anything. Maybe they can internally develop some guys into being that, but I'm skeptical on that. Reynolds shouldn't be your best bat, Hayes shouldn't be in a prime spot in your lineup and Suwinski shouldn't be your best power hitter.

I'm going to reiterate what has already been said, but this team needs:

1. A good defensive catcher who can also hit at an above average clip (maybe not Martin caliber, but definitely Cervelli caliber)
2. 2 additional players who can be relied upon to put up a 125 OPS+ or better (so 2 guys on par with like Kang, Dickerson, Alvarez, Walker and such offensively)
3. Multiple other players who can hit at least near average

This team needs so much at the C, 1B, 2B and LF position going forward. Maybe they can fill a few of those positions internally, but they almost definitely can't fill all of them.
 
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Cruz completely in another reality at the dish lately. The K rate is simply not sustainable over the course of a season/career.

I"m reserving any judgement until Shelton and Haines are shot into the sun.

Believe I was the only one on here insisting he needed more time at AAA instead of a June call-up.

I think he was just really awful today. In general I think he is seeing the ball a lot better, but he's obviously pretty frustrated right now, and rightly so.

What a miserable week on top of a miserable month on top of another miserable month on top of a miserable season.

Edit: just to be clear, I think the results need to be better, but I'm still sticking with him being in an adjustment period and beginning to turn the corner in terms of consistency.
Seeing the ball is exactly the problem don't you think? He's not picking up breaking ball spin consistently enough, it's pretty obvious IMO.
 
I don't think Reynolds wants to leave or anything like that, but it's put up or shut up time in terms of the front office and ownership. There have been gestures and even the start of signs towards committing to next year, but it's mostly talk right now. The bare minimum is extending him, but it's going to take at least one other ML bat as well. Paying market value for Haniger or (my preference) Mancini would go a long way, but we've never done it before, so I am not going to hold my breath.

The one thing I'd pump the brakes on is writing off all the prospects who have debuted this year. Not sure if that's a fair characterization, and I don't want to block questions about coaching or PD, but I do think development is non-linear and some players have shown good signs. It's definitely not enough to round out a roster, which is the main point, but I think some of the depth will stick to help out, and look better as they get better/if they are pushed into being less vital because another competent veteran is brought in.

For my money, the most urgent PD question is the status of the top prospects, primarily Davis and Gonzales, and especially Gonzales. For Davis, it's a question of staying on the field, but Gonzalaes has now had that question two years running, and a looming question of whether the hit tool is going to be there or not. Gonzo's floor was proclaimed with a high degree of confidence as at least being a low end regular, and while it's a little too early for doom and gloom, failing to convert on that is another big blow.

The pitching has been positive signs from a number of guys, but it barely needs to be said that a major injury to one of the main guys would be a huge setback.
I would imagine having to start correcting your vision in your 2nd year as a pro is a pretty significant issue to deal with. Withholding judgment, but also not expecting nearly as much from Gonzalez at the moment.

Davis IMO does not have the movement skills to be a Catcher. I'm 100% all-In on moving him to 1B this off-season as I really like the bat.
 
Seeing the ball is exactly the problem don't you think? He's not picking up breaking ball spin consistently enough, it's pretty obvious IMO.
It certainly didn't look like it vs. Rodon and in general I think he had a fine week other than the Sunday game. Ks remain an issue but BBs have started to tick up which is an important sign.

I think it's about consistency for him. I'm not sure if you are suggesting that he be sent back to AAA, but I think that would be catastrophic, as it would waste more ABs for him against pitching that is nowhere near the level he's currently facing. He needs to keep playing through the struggles. The pitching matchups this week will not be as rough, so I think he'll put together a solid few games.

All that said, I have very little confidence in the decision-making at this point, which adds even more skepticism for me that things can turn around. For my money, the front office has had fumbled the bag pretty badly with regard to Cruz and Contreras this season, and outside of Davis, these are clearly the young players who are most important to the immediate and long-term success of the team. Their decisions are driven by financial concerns and service time manipulation and not development, of which it's not even possible to say positive things about, especially on the hitting side. I don't think that bodes well for them suddenly reversing course this winter.
 
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DK relayed this stat on his YouTube show, that Pirates currently have the worst BA with RISP, in baseball history. Making the point , wondering how Andy Haines still has a job.
 
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