Toggle sidebar

OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

Status
Not open for further replies.
fetchimage.jpeg
 
Underwood Jr with 1 H, 1 R and 1 ER in 0.0 IP according to MLB.com. From a 10-5 pitch count?

That can't be right?
 
He got hurt in the middle of an AB and had to come out, but then whoever came after him (Hembree maybe? I started only paying half attention after Hayes got hurt) gave up more hits and that run scored, technically charged to him since he started the inning.
 
www.post-gazette.com

Sources: Pirates pushing to avoid arbitration hearing with Bryan Reynolds

ST. LOUIS — There’s no known date for Bryan Reynolds’ possible arbitration hearing. However, if the Pirates have their way, it may never...
www.post-gazette.com www.post-gazette.com

According to multiple sources, the team has been pushing to sign Reynolds to at least a two-year deal that would circumvent the need for an arbitration hearing and hopefully open the door to further talks.
Click to expand...

Who is this imposter and what did they do to Bob Nutting.
 
  • Love
Reactions: Scandale du Jour
Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and call bullshit on Nutting's feelings and goals in that article. It's damage control. All we can hope is that he was shamed enough into actually ponying up the money to sign Reynolds.
 
Yeah, what I find peculiar about that story is that surely the idea of extending Reynolds could have come up again over the winter, but we don't have any knowledge of that. I guess there are extenuating circumstances with a shorter spring training and so on, and I guess it's also good that he doesn't want negative perception around Reynolds, but absent actions, it's a moot point.

Avoiding arbitration would be nice, and even doing so with a two-year deal that builds in a raise would be a fine show of confidence, but long-term it wouldn't mean anything other than hoping that going an extra mile to avoid arbitration builds some continuity to turn the deal into a longer one.

It's hard to think that a significant long-term deal could be hammered out in very short order. His UFA years are going to cost a fair bit. It might come down to what the differences are for Arb 3 and Arb 4, as well as exactly how many UFA years both sides want to put in a deal. You have to figure that another excellent 2022 season would widen these gaps much more, and my sense is actually that the front office thinks Reynolds won't quite repeat his 2021 season.

I don't see any reason to doubt Reynolds' skills, but even if he's something like a very good 3.8 WAR player, that's a far cry from another top-10 type finish. A season like that and it's going to take a huge commitment to keep Reynolds around beyond arbitration (setting aside the likelihood of a trade). The one thing that's easy to discount from an armchair perspective is that for some players, guaranteed money still trumps all, even if waiting could generate more guaranteed money. For example, if Reynolds gets hurt this season and is only solid or so-so in 2023, his prospective earnings are seriously dampered. It's easy to toss around hypotheticals in this direction or the other (he repeats 2021 and then looks like an MVP-type threat at age-28 who plays one of the most important positions), but they are what a player is forced to consider while looking at huge money on the table.

Just as a back of the napkin, most team friendly possibility, let's say 7 years, 110M, buying up his three UFA years: 5, 9, 14, 18, 20, 22, 22. Those arbitration raises are guarantees that get up to and eclipse the height of what Bryant was getting in arbitration (~13 and ~13.5), and aren't way off for what OFs can get in free agency. On the other hand, if you look at free agent deals, maybe Reynolds could be in a position to command something like 6/120M when he hits free agency. Add more conservative arbitration estimates, and it maybe brings up the total earnings to 155M.

That's a pretty big gap, but 110M is still a lot of guaranteed money to turn down and a lot can happen in 4 seasons before free agency. All told, though, it would be shocking if Nutting turned around and topped the Hayes contract in a matter of days or weeks (even at a team friendly option, where, it should be added, nothing still prevents the team from not actually paying the higher AAV years... something also true in Hayes' case).

Best case is probably avoiding arbitration and it being labeled an exceptional circumstance due to the lockout and owner intervention (so as not to trample on the otherwise cheap-MLB-owner-serving of file-and-trial).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scandale du Jour
pistolpete11 said:
Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and call bullshit on Nutting's feelings and goals in that article. It's damage control. All we can hope is that he was shamed enough into actually ponying up the money to sign Reynolds.
Click to expand...
The article does hit all the right notes.

I know it is Nutting and that he does not really deserve the benefit of the doubt, but still, as a fan, I think I choose to believe the article. We need hope hehe.
 
As an addendum to my meandering ramble, I guess an optimistic/realistic take that's possible is that a two year deal demonstrates some good faith, avoids any ugly arbitration battle over the best player on a team with a 40M payroll, and potentially opens up the chance to talk about reworking it long-term over the winter (since there would be no need to exchange numbers for the next arbitration round).

The problem I see with this hypothetical is that it almost bets on Reynolds taking a small step back in order to be willing to take a more team friendly guaranteed deal.

Honestly, I think the smartest solution is the one that the Pirates would never do, but it would be to meet Reynolds' number for 7 years and front load the deal with more money than would usually be the case in order to better map out "sustainable" revenue from the team's perspective. So instead of 5, 9, 14, 18, 20, 22, 22, you do something like:

Year 1: 5M + 7M signing bonus
Year 2 13M
Year 3 20M
Year 4 15M
Year 5 15M
Year 6 15M
Year 7 20M

Just throwing some rough numbers on it, but the idea would be that in years 4, 5, and 6, some arbitration raises or need for supplemental free agents might kick in, and so having those numbers lower helps out with the rest of the team. Really, the more money that could be pledged to the bottom barrel payroll this year and next, the better, but the obvious problem with this kind of structure is that it would mean an enormous sacrifice of the leverage the team has in arbitration years for the sake of an overall commitment to paying your good players and building a winner.

Just for the sake of clarity, I know I am playing out a totally fantastical scenario here, but this type of move would demonstrate real commitment from Nutting, because what it would say is that "we've locked in our top two young players, making a demonstrable commitment to the long-term rebuilding project which will continue to be supplemented in these future years."

And these figures only look large from the Pirates POV: we don't have Hayes' exact figures yet, but regardless of what we are looking at (and even regardless of whether this hairbrained front-loaded contract could ever happen), the bottom line is that the total payroll commitment for your starting OF and starting 3B who are both above average, all-around talents batting in the top 3-5 of the order is something like 22-30M at the very most. That's hardly anything even if the payroll sits at a pathetic 80M or something. You'd have plenty of room for big arbitration bumps and a couple of mid-level FAs and players to round out the depth, etc.
 
Last edited:
DJ Spinoza said:
Yeah, what I find peculiar about that story is that surely the idea of extending Reynolds could have come up again over the winter, but we don't have any knowledge of that.
Click to expand...
Didn't Reynolds say they never approached him about an extension? I can buy that the lockout complicated things, but the moment the CBA was official, they could have started talking with Reynolds and his camp...if this has been their intention all along. That's why I'm not buying Nutting's side of the story.

Scandale du Jour said:
The article does hit all the right notes.

I know it is Nutting and that he does not really deserve the benefit of the doubt, but still, as a fan, I think I choose to believe the article. We need hope hehe.
Click to expand...
It's entirely possible they are trying to sign him now. I'm just not buying the bullshit reasons that Nutting and the PR machine fed to the PPG.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
www.post-gazette.com

Sources: Pirates pushing to avoid arbitration hearing with Bryan Reynolds

ST. LOUIS — There’s no known date for Bryan Reynolds’ possible arbitration hearing. However, if the Pirates have their way, it may never...
www.post-gazette.com www.post-gazette.com



Who is this imposter and what did they do to Bob Nutting.
Click to expand...
Well I actually was listening to David Sampson podcast it’s just business nothing personal he used to run the Marlins and works for cbs hq. He said he heard a handful of owners aren’t happy with where baseball is going and predicted Nutting might sell with in a year.
 
It’s all PR with Reynolds and I don’t care give him 3/30 to by out his arbitration then see where you are in 25. You can approach him with a 6-120 or trade him like Marte if he wants to go to FA and try for a 200 million dollar contract he is in the same space Andrew was
 
pistolpete11 said:
Didn't Reynolds say they never approached him about an extension? I can buy that the lockout complicated things, but the moment the CBA was official, they could have started talking with Reynolds and his camp...if this has been their intention all along. That's why I'm not buying Nutting's side of the story.
Click to expand...
Yes, I wasn't super clear -- I mean that the narrower period of time could be a reason why he is going to arbitration in the first place instead of being able to at least reach a compromise on the figures for this season. There's no reason to think they are serious about any extension given what we know.

I do think fwiw that it's real reporting from Mackey and not PR, but the whole thing does strike me as pretty strange.
 
So if it’s 2 years that’s what 15 million in total at most probably closer to 10 million in guaranteed money
 
Yeah I'm catching up on Mackey's chat where he's talking about it. Two years just buys certainty about arbitration next year. I'm not sure it's much of a solution to anything, but I guess avoiding arbitration is better than going to it.
 
3-21 buys out everything until free agent years start in 26. That get you until 25 then move him like Marte if an extension isn’t in the cards I guess
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Yes, I wasn't super clear -- I mean that the narrower period of time could be a reason why he is going to arbitration in the first place instead of being able to at least reach a compromise on the figures for this season. There's no reason to think they are serious about any extension given what we know.

I do think fwiw that it's real reporting from Mackey and not PR, but the whole thing does strike me as pretty strange.
Click to expand...
Meh. Still not really buying it. They are $650k apart. If Nutting was serious about his intentions, then he could have stepped in at any point. But he's not. He's just trying to save face.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom