Herby
How could Blake have known?
6'4 (based on eliteprospects.com) and taller centers drafted top 5 since 1997; I'll leave out the "top flight" part and let you decide yourself:
Joe Thornton, 1st overall, 1997
Vincent Lecavalier, 1st overall, 1998
Eric Staal, 1st overall, 2003
Evgeni Malkin, 2nd overall, 2004
Jordan Staal, 2nd overall, 2006
This also ignores some that just missed the cut by being 6'3 or shorter, like Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov. As well as players who were taken out of the top 5, like Anze Kopitar and Tage Thompson.
So, to the point of project players, very rarely get taken top 5. But there are plenty of centers who are pretty big who have had illustrious careers.
So it seems that the tall players taken high in the draft are almost always immediate plug and play type guys and the long development thing is more geared towards players taken later in the draft? Thornton was terrible as an 18 year old, but like Hughes he was given the NHL games (although Boston was a playoff team), by year 2 he was trending significantly upward and by the time he was in his D3 where QB is now he led the Bruins in goals and assists.
This is why I don’t buy into the belief that the Kings had year 4 or later as when QB was going to live up to the draft capital used on him. Teams don’t willingly draft long term projects that high in the draft because you should expect instant results from picks that high because you are picking the best of the best from that year.
I think that the Kings very likely expected that by now, the end of year 3 that QB would be knocking on the door to the 1C spot and next season he would probably be locked into that role. That seems a reasonable expectation for a #2 OA pick.
Saying he was a longer term project than Stutzle probably meant it was a Thornton/Samsonov situation and TS would be better in year 1, but by the end of year 3 it was much closer if not QB being outright better.
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