Zegras and Stutzle are horrendous defensively. You’d all be complaining about that and not to mention the Kings never have high point total players.
This is 20/20 hindsight at its finest
You think people would be complaining if the Kings had Stutzle or Zegras in the lineup and Danault was the 3C and Lizotte the 4C? People go gaga when a prospect makes a nice stickhandle or fires a nice one-timer, but people would hate these guys? When have the defensive shortcomings of Kaliyev, Byfield, Clark been magnified on this board? I must have missed it.
And Byfield and Turcotte aren't exactly Michael Peca and Patrice Bergeron either. Most young players really struggle defensively and it's something that is learned over a long time. The same stuff people are saying about Stutzle was also said once upon a time about a guy you might have heard of, Steve Yzerman. Young players first excel offensively and then make the commitment to being better all around players, Yzerman did it, Sakic did it, MacKinnon did it, Kane did it, Stamkos did it. The list goes on and in, it's complete hog wash that every young player comes into the league and is good defensively.
I was afraid of making the comparison for fear that some of the analogy would be misread or misrepresented. And that's not a knock against you - just that it may not have been the best analogy to begin with.
But if Byfield is a 60-70 point player, forechecks and plays a better 200 foot game on a good team versus an 80-90 point player who is more one-dimensional on a bad team, I think it's a bit of a wash.
Yes, Byfield is nowhere near 60-70 points, nor is he strong enough in his 200 foot game, but if we're talking about projections and overall impact, how a player fits in a team and career, I think that's a fair comparison. And since you brought up PLD - he's 24 years old and already has 55 points in 61 games this season.
And I don't think 60-70 points per season out of Byfield within the next few seasons is out of the realm of possibility, again assuming his need to grow. He already has 18 points in 39 games this season (and only a small chunk of that time has been on the top line). I think it's reasonable to expect this.
As far as Stutzle, it has been discussed he would reach his peak faster. And once you start hitting certain numbers (meaning 90 points), it is INCREDIBLY difficult to be that consistent production wise, as teams focus more on you. That's why the production of McDavid and Draisaitl is very special. I think it's fair to argue that Stutzle consistently hitting 100+ points is a lot less likely than Byfield growing more and putting up a much higher scoring rate than what he's currently producing.
There are plenty of fair criticisms for the Byfield pick, but right now the Kings are in a luxurious position that they can take their time with him. And he has good players to learn from.
I just think the Kings made the right picks for what they wanted and envisioned. It's certainly not passing up on Michael Jordan that you are alluding to.
Let's not also forget Stutzle is shooting at almost 19% this season. I hate to say "that's not sustainable", but I'll just say even the most revered goalscorer in modern history, Alex Ovechkin, has a career shooting percentage of 12.9. So, I also wouldn't be surprised to see a dip in Stutzle's production as soon as next season.
I know this is a long post - sorry about that. I just think Stutzle is a talented player whose early production is clouding the judgment, and right now it's very easy to say who the better player is right now. But it's just not nearly cut and dry; and I think many will be pleasantly surprised to see Byfield next season after another offseason of training, as well as a full season on the top line.
Very unlikely that Stutzle falls off, you are right he probably won't improve as much as QB could, which would put him as a 150 point type player. But it's very unlikely that a 20/21 year old player who scores 45/95 is going to fall off to much, more likely he's a perennial 90-100 point guy, as the shooting percentage difference will be offset by continued growth as a player (assuming he continues to progress until 22/23 like most players) and more assists. Remember Ottawa was without their leading goalscorer from last season and huge PP weapon from last season in Norris. 45 goals might not be a yearly thing but 35-40 and 50-60 assists certainly is. He is basically a Kucherov/Kane clone, when the puck is on his stick offense happens, it's just hard to imagine that doesn't continue. As discussed, all of the modern players who produced like this at his age have gone on to be Hall of Fame players, I am curious why you think that would be different for TS other than shooting percentage.
I did not say Stutzle was Michael Jordan and QB was Sam Bowie, I was replying to someone I believe you have on ignore who basically said there is no such thing as a bad pick. This same person also claimed a day or 2 ago on this board that he looked at results, so ya another contradiction from him.
Also, not sure I agree that the Kings have the luxury to be patient, the Kings sure seem like a team that is trying to win championships while DD and AK are still useful players. That is my one gripe with the pick, if you are going to end the rebuild and build around veteran players why draft the longer term project if hes not really going to help you much in 21/22 and 22/23. Further more, when he does develop you have suddenly traded away many of the pieces that would be similar in age to him when he reaches that level, while the veterans have aged out, that is my big gripe with the whole scenario.
I would agree with the full season on the top line thing, but according to those who cover the team, the plan is to move Byfield back to C next season, so it's very unlikely he is able to continue to grow in the role that has seen him play the best hockey of his career.
No, I do not.
Alex LaFreniere was the CLEAR CUT #1 Pick by every 'expert' imaginable. So basing this stupid argument off of less than 200 NHL games played, are we saying that everyone is wrong or are we saying there is just no real way to determine what each player will ultimately be, nobody can predict the future and it's just a f***ing crapshoot?
Anze Kopitar has two 80 point seasons in his entire Hall of Fame career but you are assuming that QB who has looked nowhere close to AK at the same age is going to be a perennial 85 point scorer?
Anze Kopitar was also the second best defensive forward of his generation, he was also a bigger player who didn't take 5 years to develop. You are either overrating Byfield or underrating Kopitar by just casually saying that Byfield is going to be a better offensive player than Kopitar.
Fact of the matter remains that both Byfield and Clarke have to "hit" for this team to be a legit Cup contender down the road and they have to be good contributors while Kopitar and Doughty are still 1 C and D. When I say "legit" that means you like their chances at the start of the season and not at the TDL because "anyone can come out of the West".
If Blake doesn't have a 1C lined up to replace Kopitar after drafting nothing but centers and RHD at a 3:1 ratio for six drafts and counting, that will be considered a failure and force him back into the FA/trade market.
As for Byfield, that was the pick for me at the time. Based on today, I take TS because I'm still in the hope phase with Byfield while I have what looks like a baseline for TS. At the time of the pick, Blake is only one year removed from the Turcotte pick and Vilardi just put in a "full" (COVID) season. You can take the bigger swing when you think you have a 1B/2A center in Turcotte and something good in Vilardi as well, never mind all the other center selections.
Don't fault Blake for taking Byfield. Made sense. If Byfield winds up as a super frustrating 40 point guy while TS is crushing it then Blake is going to have to eat shit for being wrong even if the pick made sense. That's ultimately what sports is all about: results.
The uncertainly with Vilardi's health and ability to play C as well as the obvious red flags about Turcotte as anything more than a 3C were what pushed me to taking the player who more easily projected as a C at the NHL level. The fact that TS is a dominant 1C and Byfield is playing the best hockey of his career on the wing completely went against all the scouting reports, if anything it was supposed to be TS that was going to end up on the wing.
