Post-Game Talk: Providence Bruins (4) vs Syracuse Crunch (1) - Syracuse wins series 4-1

[roflstomper]

No, not bad at all, just found it annoying using "trapezoid" so often. Ah crap, empty netter. Good run from the Baby B's.

Yeah good run, they beat two very good teams to get here. Syracuse is just stacked though. Probably would've had well over 100 points if Tampa didn't have so many injuries.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Analytics has its place especially in baseball

However hockey is heavily weighted to live or video watching

Analytics are a small part of it and helpful in hockey but no where near the data you get in baseball

Your a smart guy Fonzarelli but when it comes to Providence and local college players in hockey east I have to defer to myself because I watch these guys - oh and I'm a big Stats guy just not in hockey

I do enjoy your posts and the WHL stuff is fantastic keep it coming

I appreciate your input as well, but I'll call BS on all that. Analytics are a HUGE part of hockey. Especially in the projection department.

I'd like to do a little project with you if you're game. Running raw analytics against your opinion of the stuff you actually watch live. I'd be willing to give you 2:1 odds that analytics will out-project you and it won't be close. We could put a 100 wager to charity or something small on it.

I should emphasize, it's not "me against you". Most of the analytics I'll be running has been developed by smarter men than me, but I'll just run raw analytics on Hockey East, or some other league you watch a lot of and without ever seeing a game myself I'll just run the analytics and we'll make lists. I am telling you the analytic lists will beat you every time. It's certainly nothing against you. I'd run the same bet against Dom in the OHL or Kirk in the USHL. It doesn't matter. Analytics is simply superior to the eyeball and a zillion percent more cost effective.

When you add live eyeballs and video and vetting diligence to the analytics, that's where the real magic is, but attempting to scout without analytics is exactly like trying to hunt without a gun.

I have a juicy tid bit for you as well. I'll PM you though

EDIT: (I tried to PM you, but your storage is full)

 

[GarbageGoal]

Oh well. Good run. Can't win if you don't score and expect your goalie to bail you out every night.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Subban tries to play the puck and plays it right to a Syracuse player leads to a goal. 2-1 with 5 minutes left. Do we have any magic left.

empty netter will do it for Syracuse. 3-1.

You know, at least you learn something about Subban. I don't think he can handle the big moments. Time to move on.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I appreciate your input as well, but I'll call BS on all that. Analytics are a HUGE part of hockey. Especially in the projection department.

I'd like to do a little project with you if you're game. Running raw analytics against your opinion of the stuff you actually watch live. I'd be willing to give you 2:1 odds that analytics will out-project you and it won't be close. We could put a 100 wager to charity or something small on it.

I should emphasize, it's not "me against you". Most of the analytics I'll be running has been developed by smarter men than me, but I'll just run raw analytics on Hockey East, or some other league you watch a lot of and without ever seeing a game myself I'll just run the analytics and we'll make lists. I am telling you the analytic lists will beat you every time. It's certainly nothing against you. I'd run the same bet against Dom in the OHL or Kirk in the USHL. It doesn't matter. Analytics is simply superior to the eyeball and a zillion percent more cost effective.

When you add live eyeballs and video and vetting diligence to the analytics, that's where the real magic is, but attempting to scout without analytics is exactly like trying to hunt without a gun.

I have a juicy tid bit for you as well. I'll PM you though

EDIT: (I tried to PM you, but your storage is full)

Who ever said anything about scouting without analytics? That would be foolish. Just like using only analytics and forgoing live scouting would be foolish.

There is more than one way to hunt.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Oh well. Good run. Can't win if you don't score and expect your goalie to bail you out every night.

Yup.

Good experience for the young players. Unfortunate they could not have gone a bit further.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Who ever said anything about scouting without analytics? That would be foolish. Just like using only analytics and forgoing live scouting would be foolish.

Gee, wonder where I heard that before ...

I don't know anybody who tries to use "only" analytics. The analytics people I know have a strong grasp of it's roll. It's meant to be used alongside other tools, like live eyeballs and videos, but it's definitely the driver in a bag of clubs.

Conversely, I know a LOT of people who foolishly believe their eyeballs can stand alone, and these people rarely achieve the 20% success rate that aproach has established over the years.

Analytics is not meant to stand alone, but several studies have been done that prove a stand alone analytics approach (literally can be done on a lap top in somebodies basement without ever leaving the house) is still better than 19 of 30 existing complete professional NHL scouting operations. It's no wonder that NHL teams clamoured in the summer of 2014 to scramble together analytics departments and are constantly looking to improve on them.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Gee, wonder where I heard that before ...

Geez I don't know? Sorry if I don't commit every one of your posts to memory

What I don't agree with is that you obviously think (based off of posts I have read) that if you could only use one method, analaytics is superior to live scouting. Scouts managed to somehow find talented players long before advanced stats existed.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Geez I don't know? Sorry if I don't commit every one of your posts to memory

That's ok. Memory is selective. Another drawback of eyeball scouting.

What I don't agree with is that you obviously think (based off of posts I have read) that if you could only use one method, analaytics is superior to live scouting. Scouts managed to somehow find talented players long before advanced stats existed.

That does indeed seem to be the case, yes, and quite convincingly.

Scouts managed to somehow find talented players long before advanced stats existed.

Yes, they did. Succesfull about 20% of the time. Analytics on it's own is twice as accurate. Combine the two with analytics leading the way and you are starting to really see results.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Yeah good run, they beat two very good teams to get here. Syracuse is just stacked though. Probably would've had well over 100 points if Tampa didn't have so many injuries.

All in all a pretty good season for the Baby B's. And some great work in the pipeline by Dean and staff. Kuraly, McAvoy, McIntyre, Chelarik, DeBrusk and Heinen all seemed to make good strides. Long playoff run is icing on the cake.

 

[Rancid McGoiter]

Debrusk looked good tonight, and I like what I see from Blidh. Unfortunately, I think our backup situation is going to be a big problem next season. Subban made some good stops, but both of the goals he gave up tonight were weak, and both he and McIntyre were atrocious in the last three games.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Debrusk looked good tonight, and I like what I see from Blidh. Unfortunately, I think our backup situation is going to be a big problem next season. Subban made some good stops, but both of the goals he gave up tonight were weak, and both he and McIntyre were atrocious in the last three games.

Subban may be the player taken, never know....

 

[DKH]

I appreciate your input as well, but I'll call BS on all that. Analytics are a HUGE part of hockey. Especially in the projection department.

I'd like to do a little project with you if you're game. Running raw analytics against your opinion of the stuff you actually watch live. I'd be willing to give you 2:1 odds that analytics will out-project you and it won't be close. We could put a 100 wager to charity or something small on it.

I should emphasize, it's not "me against you". Most of the analytics I'll be running has been developed by smarter men than me, but I'll just run raw analytics on Hockey East, or some other league you watch a lot of and without ever seeing a game myself I'll just run the analytics and we'll make lists. I am telling you the analytic lists will beat you every time. It's certainly nothing against you. I'd run the same bet against Dom in the OHL or Kirk in the USHL. It doesn't matter. Analytics is simply superior to the eyeball and a zillion percent more cost effective.

When you add live eyeballs and video and vetting diligence to the analytics, that's where the real magic is, but attempting to scout without analytics is exactly like trying to hunt without a gun.

I have a juicy tid bit for you as well. I'll PM you though

EDIT: (I tried to PM you, but your storage is full)

Love your passion on this but analytics is a very nice compliment.

'When you add live eyeballs'

You have it backwards

I have my own 80/20 theory (theory not a principle) and I'm confident analytics is about at that 20 % in most sports but certainly hockey and probably higher in baseball

I have 0.0 doubt if I scouted designated players and you never saw but went by analytics I would crush you or anyone else not seeing 1 second of the player performance

This of course is me using no data and you any eye balls

 

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

A great regular season and playoff run. Appeared to have been overmatched against the Chrunch. MacInytre may have run out of gas but it would be unfair to overlook his performance that played a large part in getting them into the third round. Have to believe that the experience will be very beneficial for the many young promising prospects. Congrats to the B's and full marks on their overall performance that added up to a terrific season for the players and the organization.

 

[DominicT]

Originally Posted by Fonzerelli View Post

I'd run the same bet against Dom in the OHL or Kirk in the USHL. It doesn't matter. Analytics is simply superior to the eyeball and a zillion percent more cost effective.

And I hope you have success. I don't wish failure upon anybody. Being right is obviously more important to you than it is to me. All I care about is providing information and letting fans make their own decisions.

Also, you make it sound like I pay no attention to analytics, which is the furthest thing from the truth.

Curious question though, where do you get your advanced stats for the OHL? I have 20 different sources I use, but not all 20 are always willing to share the information.

 

[Fonzerelli]

And I hope you have success. I don't wish failure upon anybody. Being right is obviously more important to you than it is to me. All I care about is providing information and letting fans make their own decisions.

Also, you make it sound like I pay no attention to analytics, which is the furthest thing from the truth.

Curious question though, where do you get your advanced stats for the OHL? I have 20 different sources I use, but not all 20 are always willing to share the information.

Nothing to do with "me" being right. I didn't create analytics.

Also, I'm not suggesting for a second that you don't incorporate analytics.

What I am saying is that raw analytics alone vs. your eyeballs alone (or anybodies) and it's not a close race. Analytics wins in a landslide.

 

[Fonzerelli]

I have 0.0 doubt if I scouted designated players and you never saw but went by analytics I would crush you or anyone else not seeing 1 second of the player performance

This of course is me using no data and you any eye balls

Excellent! Let's develop an excersice on this at some point and put it to the test. It'll be fun. We'll PM the details in the next little bit and maybe post a thread to track it

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Nothing to do with "me" being right. I didn't create analytics.

Also, I'm not suggesting for a second that you don't incorporate analytics.

What I am saying is that raw analytics alone vs. your eyeballs alone (or anybodies) and it's not a close race. Analytics wins in a landslide.

This is a very convenient statement for you to make because it will never happen, and can't be proven false or true.

I liken the process of drafting/developing a prospect to making a cake. Lots of different ingredients go in, and while you may use more or less of some, they are all necessary in order for the cake to turn out well. If any one ingredient is missing, the cake just doesn't taste the same.

Let me ask you another question. You can have a baby via "in vitro" or the good old fashioned way (in this example, there are no infertility issues). The "in vitro" has a slightly higher success rate, but the old fashioned way is just more fun.

Which way do you choose?

 

[DKH]

Excellent! Let's develop an excersice on this at some point and put it to the test. It'll be fun. We'll PM the details in the next little bit and maybe post a thread to track it

We can do the Providence players

I have a mini plan and go to around 10 games

I can't get the stats from them I tried and I'll just watch the games so hopefully you can and my daughter friend worked in that area when I tried - good luck I hope you are successful you need to be muzzled on your ridiculous premise

We can pick the Zborils Lauzons Senyshyn types

Im willing to school you even on Gabrielle just because to drive home a point

I can also do BU or Lowell as I regularly see 5 games or thereabouts live of each

I hate to embarrass you though I like you

When you compared DeBrusk to Kelly I wept openly for you

 

[Fonzerelli]

This is a very convenient statement for you to make because it will never happen, and can't be proven false or true.

It can happen. If you de-value analytics, and don't understand their proper place, as seems to be the case with yourself and DHK, it easily can happen. You use whatever you want and raw analytics will kick your but. Not hard to make happen.

You pick a region you have watched with your eyes all year long. Make a little list of the players you watched, type of player they are and an NHL projection, which includes their impact on the game. Submit your list to a neutral 3rd party.

I'll run the analytics on the same region, make the same list. Submit the list to a neutral 3rd party.

3rd party posts the lists and we watch it play out. See if you crush analytics or if analytics humbles you.

These types of tests certainly have been run by almost every NHL team and many independant researchers. Some of them are even posted online.

The sad truth about NHL scouting departments up until very recently is that a 10 year old kid on his laptop in his moms basement with a firm grasp of analytics could out-perform most NHL teams and their entire scouting departments for most of this century.

Fortunately this is changing, as NHL teams scramble to get caught up and acclimate themselves.

 

[DKH]

It can happen. If you de-value analytics, and don't understand their proper place, as seems to be the case with yourself and DHK, it easily can happen. You use whatever you want and raw analytics will kick your but. Not hard to make happen.

You pick a region you have watched with your eyes all year long. Make a little list of the players you watched, type of player they are and an NHL projection, which includes their impact on the game. Submit your list to a neutral 3rd party.

I'll run the analytics on the same region, make the same list. Submit the list to a neutral 3rd party.

3rd party posts the lists and we watch it play out. See if you crush analytics or if analytics humbles you.

These types of tests certainly have been run by almost every NHL team and many independant researchers. Some of them are even posted online.

The sad truth about NHL scouting departments up until very recently is that a 10 year old kid on his laptop in his moms basement with a firm grasp of analytics could out-perform most NHL teams and their entire scouting departments for most of this century.

Fortunately this is changing, as NHL teams scramble to get caught up and acclimate themselves.

So when I see 10 year olds go up to the stage on draft day with a recently selected first round pick I should no longer think it's the owners or GMs kid, but the analytics guy?

 

[Fonzerelli]

I can also do BU or Lowell as I regularly see 5 games or thereabouts live of each

I hate to embarrass you though I like you

Let's do Hockey East. I've never watched a Hockey East game and never plan to.

We can start with this season, and go from there. Work the details out in PM.

You don't have to worry about embarrassing me. I didn't create analytics. And you won't beat them.

When you compared DeBrusk to Kelly I wept openly for you

That's ok. You also got emotional last summer when analytics correlated Jimmy Vesey, at best, to Zach Hyman. This of course, ran contradictory to all that eyeballing being done at the summer skates. Predictably, analytics got it right.

Zach Hyman 82 GP, 28pts
Jimmy Vesey 80GP, 27pts

And to make it more humbling, all of Hyman's production came without benefit of the PP. And he was +17 better on the +/- ledger.

Sans PP

Zach Hyman 82 GP, 28pts / +2
Jimmy Vesey 80GP, 19pts / -15

 

[Fonzerelli]

So when I see 10 year olds go up to the stage on draft day with a recently selected first round pick I should no longer think it's the owners or GMs kid, but the analytics guy?

You can always hope

PS: Clear some PM room. I've got some gold for you

 

[GloryDaze4877]

It can happen. If you de-value analytics, and don't understand their proper place, as seems to be the case with yourself and DHK, it easily can happen. You use whatever you want and raw analytics will kick your but. Not hard to make happen.

You pick a region you have watched with your eyes all year long. Make a little list of the players you watched, type of player they are and an NHL projection, which includes their impact on the game. Submit your list to a neutral 3rd party.

I'll run the analytics on the same region, make the same list. Submit the list to a neutral 3rd party.

3rd party posts the lists and we watch it play out. See if you crush analytics or if analytics humbles you.

These types of tests certainly have been run by almost every NHL team and many independant researchers. Some of them are even posted online.

The sad truth about NHL scouting departments up until very recently is that a 10 year old kid on his laptop in his moms basement with a firm grasp of analytics could out-perform most NHL teams and their entire scouting departments for most of this century.

Fortunately this is changing, as NHL teams scramble to get caught up and acclimate themselves.

I don't de-value analytics, I just think you overvalue them.

And your statement about the 10 year old is just plain ridiculous. Will analytics tell you that a D-man can only turn one way when he retrieves a puck? Will analytics tell you how a prospect will react when he's away from home for the first time and stressed? Will analytics tell you that a prospect played on a junior team for years with a player whose Dad was the coach, so he was 2nd fiddle? Will analytics tell you that a guy blocked a shot with his nads and then came back early to try to help his team, so his stats were down?

Garbage in, garbage out.

When they invent a way for analytics to measure all those types of "immeasurables", then someone can sit in their parent's basement and find the next great one. Until that time comes, I will go to games, watch the players and use analytics to to help separate them.

 

[Fonzerelli]

I don't de-value analytics, I just think you overvalue them.

And your statement about the 10 year old is just plain ridiculous. Will analytics tell you that a D-man can only turn one way when he retrieves a puck? Will analytics tell you how a prospect will react when he's away from home for the first time and stressed? Will analytics tell you that a prospect played on a junior team for years with a player whose Dad was the coach, so he was 2nd fiddle?

Garbage in, garbage out.

When they invent a way for analytics to measure all those types of "immeasurables", then someone can sit in their parent's basement and find the next great one. Until that time comes, I will go to games, watch the players and use analytics to to help separate them.

Analytics answers the important questions. The eyeballs fill in the minutia. Another reason analytics kicks eyeballs but.

Smart scouting departments today identify targets through analytics and send their scouts out to fill in the blanks. You've got it backwards.