Predict The Pacific Standings

[Rowlet]

and there it is...Ceci is awesome again, like clockwork

You don't have to think Ceci is good while acknowledging that he was an important piece to the Oilers defence, clearly he had the trust of the coaches when NHL quality defensemen were scratched so he could play through the finals.

Nobody is going to claim he's awesome, but he's been replaced with more question marks in a defensive core that badly needed to add stability this offseason.

Ceci is ideally a #5, but he was replaced with guys who should be #7s, it's still a downgrade.

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

1. Edmonton
2. Anaheim
3. Vegas
4. Vancouver
5. Calgary
6. Seattle
7. San Jose
8. Los Angeles

Going out on a very long limb to predict inaccuracy here, but I certainly enjoyed it, which is really all that matters

 

[macbowes]

Injuries are effectively completely random, and therefore can be wholly ignored in any projection. We replaced a #5 (Ceci) with a #6/7 (Emberson), and Desharnais (#6/7) with Stecher (#7). Sure, the defense is worse on paper, but the offense is much better. We replaced Foegele (3rd line W), McLeod (3/4C), and Holloway (3rd line W), with Skinner (2nd line W), Arvidsson (2nd line W), and Henrique (3C). The Oilers being old is irrelevant, as the players are still great players. This team is the best team in the league, and they will win the president's trophy.

 

[jackjohnson]

1. Vancouver
2. Edmonton
3. Vegas
4. Kings
5. Seattle

Vancouver is Toronto West. Great regular season team but they won’t get by better teams in the west.

Vancouver is complete opposite of Toronto. When Vacouver makes the playoffs, they at least win a round or 2 based on 2020 playoffs and 2024. They might not make playoffs regularly but when they do, they make it count instead of fizzling out.

Injuries are effectively completely random, and therefore can be wholly ignored in any projection. We replaced a #5 (Ceci) with a #6/7 (Emberson), and Desharnais (#6/7) with Stecher (#7). Sure, the defense is worse on paper, but the offense is much better. We replaced Foegele (3rd line W), McLeod (3/4C), and Holloway (3rd line W), with Skinner (2nd line W), Arvidsson (2nd line W), and Henrique (3C). The Oilers being old is irrelevant, as the players are still great players. This team is the best team in the league, and they will win the president's trophy.

The offense is slightly better due to them losing Holloway and Foegelle and replacing it with skinner and arvidsson. Henrique was in the lineup last year so based on those 2 swaps, its an slight upgrade. Arvidsson also is an injury prone player so that should be a concern.

 

[jackjohnson]

You don't have to think Ceci is good while acknowledging that he was an important piece to the Oilers defence, clearly he had the trust of the coaches when NHL quality defensemen were scratched so he could play through the finals.

Nobody is going to claim he's awesome, but he's been replaced with more question marks in a defensive core that badly needed to add stability this offseason.

Ceci is ideally a #5, but he was replaced with guys who should be #7s, it's still a downgrade.

Ceci was replaced with stecher who is much smaller and cant clear the front of the net. Its a downgrade

 

[voyageur]

Honestly I think Ceci is a 4/5 dman... but he was the best you had in that position. Broberg was your next best player and he's gone too. I'm not impressed with what's left. At the very most, they are unknown quantities to play on the 2nd pair RD.

Skinner is a gamble. There's a good reason why he's only being paid $3m for 1 yr. Nobody knows what you are going to get. As for Arvidson, he's a walking medical/injury dictionary. The guy, over the past 6 years has missed a ton of games because of various injuries. He is also 31 now, on the downside of his career... it's not going to get better.

Frankly, with a very old Oilers team, I think you are being overly optimistic. Oldest team in the league? I think injuries are going to bite the team in the ass... Bet on it.

I think the Canucks and Oilers are two very different teams. Rich Tocchet is a coach who will get all his players to buy in, and that's important because they moved out guys who didn't. Oilers are a talent heavy team, where the stars dictate the play. I still think the Canucks finish ahead of the Oilers for that reason, coaching in Edmonton only works if the stars are working to their capacity. A lot of winners in their lineup, but both Skinners now are high risk players to bank on.

I expect L.A. to have a different look too withput Dubois who anchored a good team, with selfish play.

The one thing I'll say about Vegas is they still have the best defense top to bottom in the division. If they can stay healthy enough to keep Mark Stone off LTIR.

I really like the Stephenson signing for Seattle, I wonder if he makes a difference in the gap between the two expansion teams.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Definitely not awesome. But it is a fact that your coach played him the third most in the crucial game 7. Ahead of the $9.25 million Nurse. Maybe call out your coach if you don’t agree?
But it is funny reading how Broberg is now a bust after seeing so many of you plug him into this seasons top 4. So predictable!

I've been adamant all along I'd like to have kept him based on potential

 

[jackjohnson]

I've been adamant all along I'd like to have kept him based on potential

I take Broberg over the dman that replaced him. Broberg is a known quantity and still young. Not so sure about this Ebenstrom guy and he might get paired with Nurse or Stecher. The only pair that i would have confidence in would be the Bouchard and Ekholm pair. The rest of the pairings are just big question marks now.

 

[Soundwave]

I think the Canucks and Oilers are two very different teams. Rich Tocchet is a coach who will get all his players to buy in, and that's important because they moved out guys who didn't. Oilers are a talent heavy team, where the stars dictate the play. I still think the Canucks finish ahead of the Oilers for that reason, coaching in Edmonton only works if the stars are working to their capacity. A lot of winners in their lineup, but both Skinners now are high risk players to bank on.

I expect L.A. to have a different look too withput Dubois who anchored a good team, with selfish play.

The one thing I'll say about Vegas is they still have the best defense top to bottom in the division. If they can stay healthy enough to keep Mark Stone off LTIR.

I really like the Stephenson signing for Seattle, I wonder if he makes a difference in the gap between the two expansion teams.

Knoblaugh/Coffey is a top tier coaching staff as much as Tocchet's group is IMO. Historic PK in the playoffs, teams like Vancouver, Dallas, Florida all having their offense grind to a halt the longer every one of those series' went along, top 6 goals against under Knoblaugh in the regular season despite not having a star goalie is more than just "they have McDavid/Draisaitl".

 

[voyageur]

Knoblaugh/Coffey is a top tier coaching staff as much as Tocchet's group is IMO. Historic PK in the playoffs, teams like Vancouver, Dallas, Florida all having their offense grind to a halt the longer every one of those series' went along, top 6 goals against under Knoblaugh in the regular season despite not having a star goalie is more than just "they have McDavid/Draisaitl".

I'm pretty sure Mark Stuart is the PK coach? No arguments about Coffey though, I imagine he sees the game in a special way. He's got less to work with this year, I don't think anyone can say differently, but there is room and time to change that, so I'll not get too far ahead in predictions.

 

[Soundwave]

I'm pretty sure Mark Stuart is the PK coach? No arguments about Coffey though, I imagine he sees the game in a special way. He's got less to work with this year, I don't think anyone can say differently, but there is room and time to change that, so I'll not get too far ahead in predictions.

I'll sumbit the Oilers improvement in D was largely Knoblaugh/Coffey, not because .... Cody Ceci was some how a superstar.

Like Florida was also has a iffy bottom 3/4 (most contenders do actually), it's the coaching system that makes it work, not really the individual talent.

 

[Ghetty Green]

After losing Ceci and Broberg I can't understand how people are still picking the Oilers to finish 1st in the Pacific.
This is not the defence of a 1st place team..
View attachment 903056

Connor McDavid

 

[Soundwave]

Cody Ceci apparently makes a team no.1 in the division or not, lol.

It's more like Knoblaugh/Coffey's system is what improved the Oilers D dramatically, not the Cody Ceci's of the world.

 

[jackjohnson]

Connor McDavid

They still didnt finish 1st in pacific last year so its a moot point. I think defensive depth is crucial in the regular season

 

[jackjohnson]

Cody Ceci apparently makes a team no.1 in the division or not, lol.

It's more like Knoblaugh/Coffey's system is what improved the Oilers D dramatically, not the Cody Ceci's of the world.

You still need a decent player to play that system. No one is saying Ceci is a superstar but he is still an NHL vet compared to the player that is replacing him. This is why its a question mark on how the defense will perform especially if injuries hit during regular season which is inevitable. Not sure how long they could go on with a bottom 4 of Nurse, Stecher, Ebenstrom and Kulak. Thats paper thin in terms of depth on the back end. Also who will be the 7th dman in this scenario? Canucks have Juulsen and Friedman who are both decent as 7th dmen plus Brisbois on the farm.

 

[Three On Zero]

After losing Ceci and Broberg I can't understand how people are still picking the Oilers to finish 1st in the Pacific.
This is not the defence of a 1st place team..
View attachment 903056

Defence isn’t as important in the regular season, especially down the stretch when teams start to get mentally prepared for playoffs. McDavid is enough to will them into a potential division win

Cody Ceci apparently makes a team no.1 in the division or not, lol.

It's more like Knoblaugh/Coffey's system is what improved the Oilers D dramatically, not the Cody Ceci's of the world.

It was actually acquiring Ekholm that improved it dramatically, he caused a lot of defenders to get knocked down a position. Ekholm is the first true #1 pairing guy Edmonton has had in quite some time

We saw that with Ekholm hurt at the beginning of the season.

 

[Rowlet]

They still didnt finish 1st in pacific last year so its a moot point. I think defensive depth is crucial in the regular season

The Oilers haven't won the division since the 80s

 

[tanti9]

1. Edmonton/Vancouver
3. Vegas
4. Los Angeles
5. Seattle
6. San Jose
7. Calgary
8. Anaheim

I see it playing out like this. All the teams have their question marks but if Demko is healthy for the whole year I see Van as the top in the Pacific. Edmonton is unquestionably better upfront but the defence corps right now is atrocious and Ekholm is a year older and Skinner is suspect for a cup challenging team. Just my thoughts and yes I am a Canuck fan lol.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

Edmonton
Vegas
Vancouver
LA
Anaheim
Seattle
San Jose
Calgary

 

[The Panther]

The Oilers haven't won the division since the 80s

Since 1986-87, the first year I began watching the NHL regularly.

While losing Ceci and Broberg sucks, neither is what you'd call a difficult player to replace, based on individual value at present. I really liked Ceci, and the team got good bang for the buck from him (and apparently he was very popular with teammates, etc.), but with his slow puck-moving and so-so wins in board battles, he's theoretically quite replaceable. Broberg has potential to be a great puck moving / skating defenceman, but he's already 23 and hasn't even locked-down an NHL job yet. (St. Louis way overpaid for him, so let's hope he fulfills his potential for them.)

How to replace them? I've heard good things about Ty Emberson, and coach Knoblauch knows him well, so we'll see...

But, as I see it, the Oilers are definitely going to acquire 1 more experienced NHL Dman before the season starts or shortly into it. Maybe they're watiing for the Draisaitl contract to be signed before they evaluate how much cap space (if any) they have...

So, while I'm sad to see Ceci and Broberg go, it's not like they're irreplaceable. No, the two points -- as I see it -- upon which the Oilers' defense success or failure depend are as follows:

1) Mattias Ekholm's aging process. This guy is a really, really great defenceman. Like, if he were 24 instead of 34, I'd like the Oilers' chances to win the Cup in the next three years. (Ekholm is +72 in 100 games with Edmonton, which is crazy.) However, he's 34, plays big minutes, and plays tough minutes (also has to shelter Bouchard a bit). If he suddenly goes down to injury or ages out of his prime form, the Oilers are in big, big trouble in the short-term. So far, so good, but how long can he keep it up...?

2) Partner for Nurse. For all the (mostly deserved) crap Nurse takes (mostly to do with his contract more than his play), he still was a solid +71 with 114 scoring points in the '21, '22, and '23 seasons combined. It's quite likely he'll be better next season than last season, which was his worst by far in quite some time. That being said / hoped, the key is to find a D-partner who can play with Nurse and maximize his strengths, while mitigating his weaknesses. Broberg appeared to be this guy (at least in a very short sample), and now he's gone. So, the Oilers desperately need a solid Dman who will slot in with Nurse and play that stabilizing role. Who will it be?

 

[Rowlet]

Since 1986-87, the first year I began watching the NHL regularly.

While losing Ceci and Broberg sucks, neither is what you'd call a difficult player to replace, based on individual value at present. I really liked Ceci, and the team got good bang for the buck from him (and apparently he was very popular with teammates, etc.), but with his slow puck-moving and so-so wins in board battles, he's theoretically quite replaceable. Broberg has potential to be a great puck moving / skating defenceman, but he's already 23 and hasn't even locked-down an NHL job yet. (St. Louis way overpaid for him, so let's hope he fulfills his potential for them.)

How to replace them? I've heard good things about Ty Emberson, and coach Knoblauch knows him well, so we'll see...

But, as I see it, the Oilers are definitely going to acquire 1 more experienced NHL Dman before the season starts or shortly into it. Maybe they're watiing for the Draisaitl contract to be signed before they evaluate how much cap space (if any) they have...

So, while I'm sad to see Ceci and Broberg go, it's not like they're irreplaceable. No, the two points -- as I see it -- upon which the Oilers' defense success or failure depend are as follows:

1) Mattias Ekholm's aging process. This guy is a really, really great defenceman. Like, if he were 24 instead of 34, I'd like the Oilers' chances to win the Cup in the next three years. (Ekholm is +72 in 100 games with Edmonton, which is crazy.) However, he's 34, plays big minutes, and plays tough minutes (also has to shelter Bouchard a bit). If he suddenly goes down to injury or ages out of his prime form, the Oilers are in big, big trouble in the short-term. So far, so good, but how long can he keep it up...?

2) Partner for Nurse. For all the (mostly deserved) crap Nurse takes (mostly to do with his contract more than his play), he still was a solid +71 with 114 scoring points in the '21, '22, and '23 seasons combined. It's quite likely he'll be better next season than last season, which was his worst by far in quite some time. That being said / hoped, the key is to find a D-partner who can play with Nurse and maximize his strengths, while mitigating his weaknesses. Broberg appeared to be this guy (at least in a very short sample), and now he's gone. So, the Oilers desperately need a solid Dman who will slot in with Nurse and play that stabilizing role. Who will it be?

The issue with all this is that the rental RD that are available this season are Adam Larsson and... Cody Ceci.

Seattle will be trying to get to the playoffs and Larsson was never particularly comfortable in Edmonton and I can't imagine Edmonton reacquires Ceci, or that the NHL would allow it.

Rasmus Andersson and Marcus Pettersson are potentially available with term, but the Flames won't be doing any favours to Edmonton who doesn't have a 1st round pick, and it's extremely unlikely that Vancouver wouldn't outbid them on Pettersson considering their front office. That being said, it's not even clear if Edmonton can take on term considering their next 2 offseasons will give roughly 15m in raises to three players.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

You don't have to think Ceci is good while acknowledging that he was an important piece to the Oilers defence, clearly he had the trust of the coaches when NHL quality defensemen were scratched so he could play through the finals.

Nobody is going to claim he's awesome, but he's been replaced with more question marks in a defensive core that badly needed to add stability this offseason.

Ceci is ideally a #5, but he was replaced with guys who should be #7s, it's still a downgrade.

Ceci during regular season
51.2% GF and 52.88
oilers as a team had 56% GF and 57 xGF
while playing 29.6% of his ice time against elite (for reference Ty Embersson played 32% of his ice time against elites

Cecil during playoffs
40% GF and 37% xGF
oilers as a team had 51% GF and 49 xGF

Oilers were a far superior team with Ceci on the bench

Canuck fans, this is just sad at this point, oilers WANTED to get rid of ceci

 

[Rowlet]

Ceci during regular season
51.2% GF and 52.88
oilers as a team had 56% GF and 57 xGF
while playing 29.6% of his ice time against elite (for reference Ty Embersson played 32% of his ice time against elites

Cecil during playoffs
40% GF and 37% xGF
oilers as a team had 51% GF and 49 xGF

Oilers were a far superior team with Ceci on the bench

Canuck fans, this is just sad at this point, oilers WANTED to get rid of ceci

We all know they wanted to get rid of Ceci, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Again, I didn't say that Ceci was good, I said the Oilers needed to add stability and they added more question marks instead. The question is, did the Oilers improve on defence? I have a hard time believing the answer is yes, even though Ceci was bad.

 

[The Panther]

Ceci during regular season
51.2% GF and 52.88
oilers as a team had 56% GF and 57 xGF
while playing 29.6% of his ice time against elite (for reference Ty Embersson played 32% of his ice time against elites

Cecil during playoffs
40% GF and 37% xGF
oilers as a team had 51% GF and 49 xGF

Oilers were a far superior team with Ceci on the bench

Canuck fans, this is just sad at this point, oilers WANTED to get rid of ceci

Yeah, you're sort of overlooking the key factor here, which is that Ceci was usually partnered with Nurse. Has he been partnered with Ekholm, those numbers would be 10 points higher.

You'll note that every Oilers' D whom they tried with Nurse suddenly looked worse with Nurse.

Ceci is a good NHL defenceman and did a great job with Edmonton. He's going to have some long nights with San Jose next year, but he'll also help settle that D-score. Good luck to Cody Ceci!

 

[Xelebes]

Vancouver
Vegas
Calgary
LA
Anaheim
San Jose
Seattle
Edmonton