Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Tufted Titmouse]

Lysell, Boqvist, Lauko, Merkulov all in before Greer and Steen, but yeah, its a team that really needs a #1C.

The thing is that they still have elite defense and goaltending and a PP lead by one of the games best goal scorers. They won't get home ice without any other moves, but they ain't gonna fall off a cliff, and next offseason they will be very cap rich to go center shopping.

None of those names excite me, and I am not sure Lysell is ready to be a difference make type.

As for the defence and goaltending...I think Bergeron and Krecji will have a bigger impact on those than expected. I am not sold Lindholm and Ullmark are as good as they showed last year.

Finally, it may be a season where Boston has to fight to get in.

 

[Ezekial]

including you

that Athletic article you posted doesn't factor in guys that got traded at the deadline at all

We didn't have two of our most important pieces who were traded at the deadline all season anyway.

Hronek is the only real loss from last year's roster into this year's, and the hope is Ghost-Holl is close enough overall to Hronek-Hagg/Lindstrom. Hronek is the best player of the bunch and Ghost and Holl are clearly better than both Hagg and Lindstrom. So you hope they even out.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

The Wings are not expecting growth from within? Raymond bouncing back, Seider having a complete year, Berggren getting better, Rasmussen, Edvinsson, Kasper, Mazur, and Soderblom are all options within for this year.

Where did I say they weren't? I was speaking in reference to Ottawa and Buffalo who both have a ton of young players and chose to count on internal growth almost completely.

 

[ricky0034]

We didn't have two of our most important pieces who were traded at the deadline all season anyway.

Hronek is the only real loss from last year's roster into this year's, and the hope is Ghost-Holl is close enough overall to Hronek-Hagg/Lindstrom. Hronek is the best player of the bunch and Ghost and Holl are clearly better than both Hagg and Lindstrom. So you hope they even out.

yeah but that Athletic article is completely ignoring the value that 60 games of Hronek brought while also adding in the value of those other guys so it isn't so much evening anything out as adding in those guys while pretending Hronek never even existed

it makes it pretty worthless as far as something like predicting standings compared to last year goes(meanwhile it's also dinging Boston for losing guys like Bertuzzi and Orlov when they only got them after the deadline)

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

including you

that Athletic article you posted doesn't factor in guys that got traded at the deadline at all

and why should it? Those players weren’t on the team for the last 20 or so games, and in the case of Bertuzzi and Vrana they barely played for the wings and scored a combined 5 goals In 26 games.

 

[ricky0034]

and why should it? Those players weren’t on the team for the last 20 or so games, and in the case of Bertuzzi and Vrana they barely played for the wings and scored a combined 5 goals In 26 games.

if you don't see how excluding all the value that Hronek brought the Wings in his 60 games last year while also adding all the value the new guys are projected to bring makes that article utterly worthless as a predictive tool for how the standings will compare to next year like you and others are attempting to use it as then I really don't know what to tell you

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

if you don't see how excluding all the value that Hronek brought the Wings in his 60 games last year while also adding all the value the new guys are projected to bring makes that article utterly worthless as a predictive tool for how the standings will compare to next year like you and others are attempting to use it as then I really don't know what to tell you

Ghost brings more value than Hronek. That’s already been posted by others on the wings board multiple times.

 

[ricky0034]

Ghost brings more value than Hronek. That’s already been posted by others on the wings board multiple times.

even if he did you're literally still double dipping by attempting to take last years standings and add Ghost's value to it while simultaneously ignoring what Hronek brought

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Where did I say they weren't? I was speaking in reference to Ottawa and Buffalo who both have a ton of young players and chose to count on internal growth almost completely.

You didn't include them with the Sabres and the Sens as young teams expecting growth within, then implied the Wings only increase would be from "a ton of UFA's".

What's the issue with signing UFA's and growing internally? It's not a one or the other situation, you can do both.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

1 -Toronto
2 -Tampa Bay
3 -Ottawa/Buffalo
4 -Buffalo/Ottawa
5 -Detroit
6 -Boston
7 MTL/FLA
8 -FLA/MTL

Losing Bergeron is epochal, expecting regression there. Ottawa is ready to rise, but they are coached by a cantaloupe. Buffalo on the edge too, as it DET. It's going to be a bloodbath between those three for that top 3 spot. FLA will come down to earth, way down, ground-level where the Panthers live and MTL will slowly keep improving. Tampa Bay will remain elite and should be a lock for 1-2/Leafs as well reg. season will be a formality for their squad.
l

 

[REALTALK81]

Florida
Tampa
Toronto
Boston
Buffalo
Ottawa
Detroit
Montreal

 

[FinlandPanther]

1 -Toronto
2 -Tampa Bay
3 -Ottawa/Buffalo
4 -Buffalo/Ottawa
5 -Detroit
6 -Boston
7 MTL/FLA
8 -FLA/MTL

Losing Bergeron is epochal, expecting regression there. Ottawa is ready to rise, but they are coached by a cantaloupe. Buffalo on the edge too, as it DET. It's going to be a bloodbath between those three for that top 3 spot. FLA will come down to earth, way down, ground-level where the Panthers live and MTL will slowly keep improving. Tampa Bay will remain elite and should be a lock for 1-2/Leafs as well reg. season will be a formality for their squad.
l

You officially have the worst one in the entire thread. Congrats. Oh Ottawa fan. Now it makes sense. Team got worse but is expected to rise. Weird

 

[norrisnick]

yeah but that Athletic article is completely ignoring the value that 60 games of Hronek brought while also adding in the value of those other guys so it isn't so much evening anything out as adding in those guys while pretending Hronek never even existed

it makes it pretty worthless as far as something like predicting standings compared to last year goes(meanwhile it's also dinging Boston for losing guys like Bertuzzi and Orlov when they only got them after the deadline)

Only 25-30 games actually brought in any value. Check his splits from after Maatta got pneumonia 12/7. They never played together after that.

 

[Ulysses31]

1 -Toronto
2 -Tampa Bay
3 -Ottawa/Buffalo
4 -Buffalo/Ottawa
5 -Detroit
6 -Boston
7 MTL/FLA
8 -FLA/MTL

Losing Bergeron is epochal, expecting regression there. Ottawa is ready to rise, but they are coached by a cantaloupe. Buffalo on the edge too, as it DET. It's going to be a bloodbath between those three for that top 3 spot. FLA will come down to earth, way down, ground-level where the Panthers live and MTL will slowly keep improving. Tampa Bay will remain elite and should be a lock for 1-2/Leafs as well reg. season will be a formality for their squad.
l

Guessing this but that said boston and florida still favored to make playoffs. East carzy tough competition. Caps, philly, and habs (maybe BJs too )only teams clearly not in playoff contention

 

[Pavels Dog]

They did find ways to win early last season, but as it wore on we saw a team with a lack of firepower when they needed it. They were bottom 10 in scoring and 11th worst in goals against. Maybe they get some defensive improvement, or better goaltending from Reimer than they did from Ned, but is that enough to offset their clear lack of scoring? Are adding Gost, and upgrading Kubalik to DeBrincat going to add significant goal totals?

The lowest scoring playoff teams last season were the Wild, Islanders and Jets who all still scored more goals than Detroit while allowing 50+ less over the course of the season. That's a tough gap to close. We are seeing the league trending upward in goal scoring, and last season Detroit lagged behind in that department. We also saw Husso start out hot, but fell back to earth around midseason.

I think there are just a lot of questions around how that roster will gel, and given the high roster turnover the past 2 seasons I think it's a legitimate concern. They also were claimed as the most improved team last off-season, and it did result in some minor improvement but not to the level needed to make the playoffs.

I'm not knocking them, but Yzerman himself seemed to be trying to temper some expectations when he said he was about a year behind Buffalo and Ottawa.

A lot of fair points, but I'll again point out how much of the narrative is painted by their tank-job to end the season.

This was in late february:


Things that happened after that:

- Rasmussen injury
- Husso injury (+ declined play due to being overworked)
- Hronek traded
- Bertuzzi traded
- Multiple prospect injuries, leading to poor depth call-ups (Söderblom, Kasper, Johansson etc.)
- Obvious decline in the team's overall play (Lalonde said they were "feeling sorry for themselves" post-TDL)

I think most Red Wings fans were in agreement that last year it wouldn't have been smart to chase a playoff spot. Selling/tanking down the stretch gave them additional high draft picks and ammunition to do things like the Debrincat trade. But really, they were right there in the mix with Buffalo/Ottawa most of the season, if not ahead.

 

[ricky0034]

Only 25-30 games actually brought in any value. Check his splits from after Maatta got pneumonia 12/7. They never played together after that.

Wings fans when Seider doesn't do well with Chiarot:

Wings fans when Hronek doesn't do well with Chiarot:

 

[norrisnick]

Wings fans when Seider doesn't do well with Chiarot:

View attachment 731111

Wings fans when Hronek doesn't do well with Chiarot:

View attachment 731113

Hronek didn't do so hot with several partners over the years. Maatta is the outlier for him. Chiarot is the outlier for Seider.

 

[PettersonHughes]

Personally expecting quite the logjam in this division, so instead of ranking them definitively I'll put them in the tiers I think they'll be in

Toronto* (brought back Samsonov and added firepower, but will have to see if the D holds up)

Tampa/ Buffalo (could see Buffalo really make a push given their improved D and possible #1 goalie in Levi; tough to take Tampa out from the upper half of the div. but losing depth likely hurts)

Detroit/ Boston/ Florida/ Ottawa (Detroit was 7th but added DeBrincat and other useful vets which should make them more competitive, and Ottawa was 6th but hopefully gets Norris back for the full year and may have their #1 so they should be in the mix; Boston losing Bergeron should hurt so I could see them in this tier beneath the more likely playoff teams, and Florida may be in the upper half of this tier depending on how long Ekblad is out)

Montreal (with how much the rising teams added around them, and how good the likely regressing teams still are, I just don't see the Habs rising out of the basement, especially when Newhook is the big add, and their goaltending is the same as it was).

 

[ricky0034]

Hronek didn't do so hot with several partners over the years. Maatta is the outlier for him. Chiarot is the outlier for Seider.

Hronek did just fine with Walman last year too in the 116 even strength minutes they played together

it's only the few hundred minutes with Chiarot that he struggled

 

[Pavels Dog]

if you don't see how excluding all the value that Hronek brought the Wings in his 60 games last year while also adding all the value the new guys are projected to bring makes that article utterly worthless as a predictive tool for how the standings will compare to next year like you and others are attempting to use it as then I really don't know what to tell you

That's not what the article is doing, it's not a standings predictor.

Hronek is a loss, no doubt. That loss is part of why so many view Detroit as this terrible team through the post-TDL lense. Ghost/Holl/Johansson/Edvinsson may not perfectly replace him, but there should be a decent amount of depth there to offset the loss better than Detroit were able to post-TDL.
I would also expect Seider's ES minutes to increase.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Toronto
Tampa
Boston
Florida
Detroit
Buffalo
Ottawa
Montreal

 

[wintersej]

None of those names excite me, and I am not sure Lysell is ready to be a difference make type.

As for the defence and goaltending...I think Bergeron and Krecji will have a bigger impact on those than expected. I am not sold Lindholm and Ullmark are as good as they showed last year.

Finally, it may be a season where Boston has to fight to get in.

Bergeron, yeah I feel ya... but they were 4th in goals allowed with Erik Haula in Krejci's spot the year before and Ullmark throwing out a .917 instead of a .938 save %... and that team only had Lindholm for 10 games.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Florida and Ottawa top 2? that's bold especially since both Ekblad and Montour going to miss time and I think Tkachuk will too but not sure about him.

Lol Tkachuk will not miss time.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Lol Tkachuk will not miss time.

OK but the other definitely will

 

[norrisnick]

Hronek did just fine with Walman last year too in the 116 even strength minutes they played together

it's only the few hundred minutes with Chiarot that he struggled

Ok, henkka...