Predict the Atlantic Standings

[The90]

I think top heavy teams can finish high in the standings in regular season, but I think where the issues will arise is come playoff time. The Leafs did nothing to address their lack of depth up front. They even got worse in that regards, by losing Hyman and bringing in a couple of random 20-30 point guys.

So I can see their "big 4" being able to cruise them to another 100 point regular season, but I don't think Dubas did anything to improve their playoff chances with his off-season.

Their issue had nothing to do with depth? Their issue was their big boys didn’t produce?

Their depth scored 50% of their goals in the playoffs when 2/3 of their healthy highest paid forwards had 1 goal combined.

 

[pb1300]

Their issue had nothing to do with depth? Their issue was their big boys didn’t produce?

Their depth scored 50% of their goals in the playoffs when 2/3 of their healthy highest paid forwards had 1 goal combined.

You think maybe the big boys have problems in the postseason is because they are so overworked in the regular season? Especially a season that was condensed. Which would mean there is a problem with depth.

Toronto’s issue by far is depth, regardless of whether the big boys show up in the playoffs or not. They won’t go far with four players.

 

[The90]

You think maybe the big boys have problems in the postseason is because they are so overworked in the regular season? Especially a season that was condensed. Which would mean there is a problem with depth.

Toronto’s issue by far is depth, regardless of whether the big boys show up in the playoffs or not. They won’t go far with four players.

I do think they play matthews and Marner a bit too much, but if you watch them play it’s literally a non issue.

The ‘they have no depth’ argument is a talking point because of their big 4 contracts up front. Their 3rd line centre produced 6 points in 7 games in the playoffs and their fourth line centre had 31 points in 55 games last year. It’s a bad argument. The only reason they lost last year was because the big boys couldn’t solve carey price.

Did you watch any of the leafs games last year in their entirety?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Their issue had nothing to do with depth? Their issue was their big boys didn’t produce?

Their depth scored 50% of their goals in the playoffs when 2/3 of their healthy highest paid forwards had 1 goal combined.

Outside of Spezza, their depth did nothing in the playoffs. If you're including Kerfoot as "depth" that seems disingenuous since he was next to Nylander (who isn't depth) and benefited from Nylander playing outstanding all series after Tavares went down (ie. he was playing a top six role).

Their "depth" produced as follows versus Montreal:
Thornton - 1 goal
Foligno - 1 assist
Simmonds - 1 assist
Engvall - 1 assist
Mikheyev - 0 points
Nash/Brooks - 0 points

And even the guy who produced some points (Galchenyuk) still only managed 1 goal.

Sure, the big boys need to be better. But you're not going anywhere in the playoffs when you have that many regulars producing next to nothing in a 7 game series.

 

[nturn06]

I do think they play matthews and Marner a bit too much, but if you watch them play it’s literally a non issue.

The ‘they have no depth’ argument is a talking point because of their big 4 contracts up front. Their 3rd line centre produced 6 points in 7 games in the playoffs and their fourth line centre had 31 points in 55 games last year. It’s a bad argument. The only reason they lost last year was because the big boys couldn’t solve carey price.

Did you watch any of the leafs games last year in their entirety?

Funny, one of the reasons the Leafs fans wanted Babcock gone was because he was not playing AM and MM too much.

As for the "non-issue" thing, I reall seeing two TML playoffs last year, and AM looked gassed in both of them...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I do think they play matthews and Marner a bit too much, but if you watch them play it’s literally a non issue.

The ‘they have no depth’ argument is a talking point because of their big 4 contracts up front. Their 3rd line centre produced 6 points in 7 games in the playoffs and their fourth line centre had 31 points in 55 games last year. It’s a bad argument. The only reason they lost last year was because the big boys couldn’t solve carey price.

Did you watch any of the leafs games last year in their entirety?

See, this is what I mean above. That's being disingenuous to describe Kerfoot as that given the role he played after Tavares went down.

You make it sound like Kerfoot was scoring that playing as the 3rd line center, when in reality he was getting assists by being on a line with a red hot Nylander.

 

[pb1300]

I do think they play matthews and Marner a bit too much, but if you watch them play it’s literally a non issue.

The ‘they have no depth’ argument is a talking point because of their big 4 contracts up front. Their 3rd line centre produced 6 points in 7 games in the playoffs and their fourth line centre had 31 points in 55 games last year. It’s a bad argument. The only reason they lost last year was because the big boys couldn’t solve carey price.

Did you watch any of the leafs games last year in their entirety?

I don’t watch all games in there entirety, but I do watch a lot of games, of most of the teams. I am a fan of the sport. And while I do dislike the Leafs, I’m a Matthews fan. So I do watch them.

Maybe I’m just stating the obvious with the top players playing too much, but it’s something that should have been dealt with by now by your management. So maybe it’s time Dubas goes. The same thing happened with the Panthers before they got Barkov more help. They relied on him heavily, and you saw as the season was coming to an end, he was overworked.

 

[The90]

Outside of Spezza, their depth did nothing in the playoffs. If you're including Kerfoot as "depth" that seems disingenuous since he was next to Nylander (who isn't depth) and benefited from Nylander playing outstanding all series after Tavares went down (ie. he was playing a top six role).

Their "depth" produced as follows versus Montreal:
Thornton - 1 goal
Foligno - 1 assist
Simmonds - 1 assist
Engvall - 1 assist
Mikheyev - 0 points
Nash/Brooks - 0 points

And even the guy who produced some points (Galchenyuk) still only managed 1 goal.

Sure, the big boys need to be better. But you're not going anywhere in the playoffs when you have that many regulars producing next to nothing in a 7 game series.

Would you consider depth being a player who can fill in well when a top guy gets injured?

 

[The90]

See, this is what I mean above. That's being disingenuous to describe Kerfoot as that given the role he played after Tavares went down.

You make it sound like Kerfoot was scoring that playing as the 3rd line center, when in reality he was getting assists by being on a line with a red hot Nylander.

Not at all trying to insinuate that. I’m just saying depth is literally what kerfoot did. He was a depth player that was playing on a lower line that was capable of filling in on a top line. I know he played with Nylander and I’m not pretending otherwise.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Would you consider depth being a player who can fill in well when a top guy gets injured?

I consider depth scoring when a player who can provide scoring outside of when the big boys score. Picking up some random apples because a star player next to you is on fire isn't really the point of depth scoring.

For instance, the Pens had depth scoring in 2016 because HBK scored without having to rely on picking up points next to Crosby or Malkin. The Lightning had depth this past season because Coleman/Goodrow/Gourde produced timely offense without having their stats padded playing next to Kucherov or Point.

In contrast, the Oilers LACK depth scoring because no line scores when McDavid/Draisaitl isn't on the ice. Just because whatever flavor of the month who is put on their line produces next to them doesn't change that fact, because they're still only getting offense when those two are on the ice.

Kerfoot getting a bunch of assists because he was riding shotgun to a red-hot Nylander isn't depth scoring. That would be like listing Patric Hornqvist as depth scoring for the Pens in 2016 because he scored 9 goals, ignoring the fact he was Crosby's RW the vast majority of that run. That wasn't depth scoring he provided, that was top line scoring.

 

[The90]

Funny, one of the reasons the Leafs fans wanted Babcock gone was because he was not playing AM and MM too much.

As for the "non-issue" thing, I reall seeing two TML playoffs last year, and AM looked gassed in both of them...

Pretty sure they played like 5 of the last 6 minutes of one of the last games. Which is clearly too much.

Tavares / nylanders average time on ice should be closer to matthews and Tavares is all I’m saying. I think somewhere in the middle of how much they played last year and how much babcock played them is the sweet spot, but I’m an idiot so who knows.

 

[The90]

Outside of Spezza, their depth did nothing in the playoffs. If you're including Kerfoot as "depth" that seems disingenuous since he was next to Nylander (who isn't depth) and benefited from Nylander playing outstanding all series after Tavares went down (ie. he was playing a top six role).

Their "depth" produced as follows versus Montreal:
Thornton - 1 goal
Foligno - 1 assist
Simmonds - 1 assist
Engvall - 1 assist
Mikheyev - 0 points
Nash/Brooks - 0 points

And even the guy who produced some points (Galchenyuk) still only managed 1 goal.

Sure, the big boys need to be better. But you're not going anywhere in the playoffs when you have that many regulars producing next to nothing in a 7 game series.

I don’t disagree but that’s only part of it. The fact that you have a player even capable enough to produce on a top line when someone gets injured is depth in itself. Also, spezza is depth as well. Although hybrid because he plays on the powerplay, still only 13 minutes a game

so you have spezza kerfoot and galchenyuk all producing, but they didn’t have depth? I don’t get it.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don’t disagree but that’s only part of it. The fact that you have a player even capable enough to produce on a top line is depth in itself. Also, spezza is depth as well. Although hybrid because he plays on the powerplay, still only 13 minutes a game

But that's the thing. Kerfoot being used as a 2C and benefiting from Nylander lighting up the score sheet isn't really "depth scoring". That would be like the Oilers putting James Neal next to McDavid and Draisaitl last playoffs and him scoring 4 points in 4 games, all because of McDavid, but none of their other lines producing a single goal. Just because Neal got some points next to McDavid and Draisaitl doesn't suddenly mean the Oilers had good depth scoring.

Also, I mentioned Spezza as the only one who provided depth scoring.

The bottom line is look at the list of Toronto regulars who had 1 goal or less or who had 1 point or less. That's a severe lack of depth scoring. So it doesn't even matter if you include Kerfoot as part of depth, that's still a lack of overall depth scoring because that means only 2 guys (Spezza and Kerfoot) out of 9 regulars not named Matthews/Marner/Nylander did anything. That's a lack of depth scoring.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Tampa
Florida
Toronto
Boston
Montreal
-
Detroit
Ottawa
Buffalo

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

so you have spezza kerfoot and galchenyuk all producing, but they didn’t have depth? I don’t get it.

I've literally spelled it out multiple times now. What's not to get?

-7 out of 12 regular forwards had 1 point or less.
-10 out of 12 regular forwards had 1 goal or less.

How the hell is depth scoring not an issue when over half your forwards had 1 point or less and only 2 forwards on the entire roster were able to score more than 1 goal in 7 games?

 

[TOGuy14]

In playoffs:

Tampa
Toronto/Florida
Boston

Out of playoffs:

Montreal / Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

 

[TOGuy14]

Out of all the teams in this division, is it unreasonable to think that Montreal will regress the hardest?

They finished 18th in points overall after playing in a "weaker" division and lost some key players.

I see them missing the playoffs by a decent spread, not sure if that is considered regression or reality after a one off cinderella run.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Tampa
Florida
Toronto
Boston
Montreal
-
Detroit
Ottawa
Buffalo

5 Atlantic playoff teams is pretty bold, think you're the 1st one here with that.

 

[leafsfan5]

Funny, one of the reasons the Leafs fans wanted Babcock gone was because he was not playing AM and MM too much.

As for the "non-issue" thing, I reall seeing two TML playoffs last year, and AM looked gassed in both of them...

Well yes, Babcock underplayed Matthews while Keefe overplays him. There’s a middle ground that can be achieved.

 

[BB88]

Would have could have should have.

Habs went to the finals last year and as such were the 2nd best team in the league.

Habs will win a playoff divisional spot this season. And Detroit isnt going to pass them - they might pass Florida though

That’s absolute garbage.

If they faced Tampa on 1st round they would have been out immediately.
They got lucky with Canada division.

Florida put up a much better fight without Ekblad and have added Reinhart and Lundell

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

5 Atlantic playoff teams is pretty bold, think you're the 1st one here with that.

What's more unique is I did three in the Metro in the other prediction with:
NYR
NYI
Pittsburgh

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Leafs lost Hyman, Thornton and Galchenyuk. Wouldn't count Foligno as he was a rental that they could and probably will trade for an equivalent or better forward if needed at next years deadline.

They replaced those three with Ritchie, Bunting and Kase. A downgrade from Hyman but probably an upgrade on Thornton/Galchenyuk.

The bigger issue is Mark Hunter's drafts haven't turned out any supplemental young guys that can fill in on ELCs the way the Guentzels/Debrincats helped PIT/CHI. They have Robertson and a few other good young prospects now since they got rid of Mark Hunter but it might take a year or two before they contribute.

Foligno was UFA and signed with Boston,

 

[JianYang]

They finished 18th in points overall after playing in a "weaker" division and lost some key players.

I see them missing the playoffs by a decent spread, not sure if that is considered regression or reality after a one off cinderella run.

I think the team is taking a step back but that is based on the offseason rather than last season

When it comes to last year, I think they were better than that record indicates. Their covid shutdown meant they had to play their final 25 games in 43 days, which was further compounded by a coaching change just before that stretch.

This meant the only real time the coach had to try and practice his strategies was the few days off between the end of the regular season and the playoffs, because the players could only focus on trying to catch their breath for the last half of the season under that level of schedule compression.

 

[WeThreeKings]

In playoffs:

Tampa
Toronto/Florida
Boston

Out of playoffs:

Montreal / Ottawa
Detroit
Buffalo

This is probably the best way to put it.

 

[Flash20]

at least we have the Buffalo bills