Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[Olderfan]

lol what hes like 24 … josi just peaked at like 31

I said it was debatable.

 

[Viqsi]

I'll just state for the record that if folks want so badly to move Fabbro, he would be very welcome in Columbus.

 

[Gh24]

I'll just state for the record that if folks want so badly to move Fabbro, he would be very welcome in Columbus.

No, shoo, hands off

 

[Viqsi]

No, shoo, hands off

Awwwww.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Concur. I think people need to temper their expectations a little bit with Glass. It's possible he proves himself capable of being an everyday NHL player. But I think people should leave a little room in their imaginations for the alternative... it's also possible that he won't. He had a good season in Milwaukee, but he's 23 now and the AHL offramps are littered with players who didn't have quite that extra step needed to translate minor league success into NHL success.

On the flip side you can say last season was the first time since being drafted that he was completely healthy. He has shown he has the skilled to play full time in the nhl and I will keep my expectations high on him because I think he can be a special player. I see him matching tomasinos point total from last year this year at around 30 points which will be a good 1st full season for us.
Speaking on high expectations I have high expectations for tomasino as well. If he gets a chance on the 2nd line which I think he should with nino and Joey I could see him increasing his point total by 20 at least.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

On the flip side you can say last season was the first time since being drafted that he was completely healthy. He has shown he has the skilled to play full time in the nhl and I will keep my expectations high on him because I think he can be a special player. I see him matching tomasinos point total from last year this year at around 30 points which will be a good 1st full season for us.
Speaking on high expectations I have high expectations for tomasino as well. If he gets a chance on the 2nd line which I think he should with nino and Joey I could see him increasing his point total by 20 at least.

Well, I am agreed on Tomasino and would definitely have high expectations for him... as long as he gets that usage by the coaching staff, which I feel he should.

Maybe it is just because I have watched Tomasino play, however. So I am confident in what I see in him. The times I've seen Glass, he has not impressed me. I WANT him to impress me. But it doesn't happen. But it has been small samples and he has had scarce utilization or opportunity, so I take that with an appropriately large grain of salt and try to remain hopeful. But I would rather be very cautious in my expectations for him, and would rather be pleasantly surprised if he gets regular usage or 30 pts than actually count on it happening. I could just as easily imagine him not being able to play for us and getting waived back to the minors, however. Or getting basically McCarron-numbers with part-time utilization.

If he plays a full season and gets 30 points that will be something that I am not expecting. I am definitely not expecting him to ever be a "special player"... I don't know where that could possibly come from?

 

[Gh24]

On the flip side you can say last season was the first time since being drafted that he was completely healthy. He has shown he has the skilled to play full time in the nhl and I will keep my expectations high on him because I think he can be a special player. I see him matching tomasinos point total from last year this year at around 30 points which will be a good 1st full season for us.
Speaking on high expectations I have high expectations for tomasino as well. If he gets a chance on the 2nd line which I think he should with nino and Joey I could see him increasing his point total by 20 at least.

I call 30 point increase for a 60 pts season

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Well, I am agreed on Tomasino and would definitely have high expectations for him... as long as he gets that usage by the coaching staff, which I feel he should.

Maybe it is just because I have watched Tomasino play, however. So I am confident in what I see in him. The times I've seen Glass, he has not impressed me. I WANT him to impress me. But it doesn't happen. But it has been small samples and he has had scarce utilization or opportunity, so I take that with an appropriately large grain of salt and try to remain hopeful. But I would rather be very cautious in my expectations for him, and would rather be pleasantly surprised if he gets regular usage or 30 pts than actually count on it happening. I could just as easily imagine him not being able to play for us and getting waived back to the minors, however. Or getting basically McCarron-numbers with part-time utilization.

If he plays a full season and gets 30 points that will be something that I am not expecting. I am definitely not expecting him to ever be a "special player"... I don't know where that could possibly come from?

Well where you didn’t see something in the small sample size last year I did see a lot of positives.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Double post

 

[Scoresberg]

I think people are misremembering Tolvanen's 2020-2021 season. He wasn't scoring at even strength (like in 21-22), he was pretty much only doing his damage on the 1st PP unit, where he scored 6 goals. Other than that, he scored 5 goals in 40 games.

So, expecting or hoping Tolvanen "to return to form" is somewhat misleading. His form in 20-21 was more or less the same than in 21-22. In fact, his goals per 60 at even strength* was 0.49 in 20-21 and 0.71 in 21-22.

My biggest complaint about him is that he doesn't seem to get open in the offensive zone to even use his shot. Whether that's poor hockey IQ or playing too cautious, I don't know. But I'm not expecting a breakout from him, I think he will stagnate as a bottom-six defensive player which I guess is fine after all.

*edited

 

[Marty Party]

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think people are misremembering Tolvanen's 2020-2021 season. He wasn't scoring at even strength (like in 21-22), he was pretty much only doing his damage on the 1st PP unit, where he scored 6 goals. Other than that, he scored 5 goals in 40 games.

So, expecting or hoping Tolvanen "to return to form" is somewhat misleading. His form in 20-21 was more or less the same than in 21-22. In fact, his goals per 60 at even strength* was 0.49 in 20-21 and 0.71 in 21-22.

My biggest complaint about him is that he doesn't seem to get open in the offensive zone to even use his shot. Whether that's poor hockey IQ or playing too cautious, I don't know. But I'm not expecting a breakout from him, I think he will stagnate as a bottom-six defensive player which I guess is fine after all.

*edited

I don't agree with this. If you really watched Tolvanen play, his game actually WAS different. Yes, he got more PP goals and points the year before, getting a PP1 slot. He still got good PP2 time last season though. But it's not just the numbers of points he got on PP or ES, it's the way he got them... and the ways he didn't get them.

Lots of muffins into the goalie's chest this past season. He wasn't TRYING to snipe corners. Be it PP2 or ES, he just wasn't in the same scoring spots. Focusing on his ES production is a red herring, because ideally if he's that much of a sniper he WILL get PP time and produce PP points. Year 1, he did that. Year 2, he still got the opportunity and he didn't execute the same. His game changed. You can't say we're misremembering it just based on those particular stats. We remember them perfectly. And saw his game change.

 

[101st_fan]

I don't agree with this. If you really watched Tolvanen play, his game actually WAS different. Yes, he got more PP goals and points the year before, getting a PP1 slot. He still got good PP2 time last season though. But it's not just the numbers of points he got on PP or ES, it's the way he got them... and the ways he didn't get them.

Lots of muffins into the goalie's chest this past season. He wasn't TRYING to snipe corners. Be it PP2 or ES, he just wasn't in the same scoring spots. Focusing on his ES production is a red herring, because ideally if he's that much of a sniper he WILL get PP time and produce PP points. Year 1, he did that. Year 2, he still got the opportunity and he didn't execute the same. His game changed. You can't say we're misremembering it just based on those particular stats. We remember them perfectly. And saw his game change.

Look at his shot maps.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player

moneypuck.com

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

Curious on what line do you guys see Sanford playing?

Also are you happy with that signing? I find him good value for $850K…

 

[herzausstein]

Curious on what line do you guys see Sanford playing?

Also are you happy with that signing? I find him good value for $850K…

He will likely be on the fourth line with some combination of McCarron, Novak, glass, Tolvanen, tomasino. It depends on how the rest of the lineup shakes up and if they will break up the beast line.

If the first and third lines are untouched I think Tomasino has earned the right to play with Nino and Granlund leaving Tolvanen McCarron/Novak/glass and Sanford. If they want to promote one of Trenin or Jeannot to play with Nino and Granlund (which could make a devastatingly annoying line) I could see Sanford/McCarron slotting next to sissons and having a kid line Tolvanen Novak/glass tomasino.

I think he was a good buy low candidate and adds some good cheap experienced depth

 

[Scoresberg]

I don't agree with this. If you really watched Tolvanen play, his game actually WAS different. Yes, he got more PP goals and points the year before, getting a PP1 slot. He still got good PP2 time last season though. But it's not just the numbers of points he got on PP or ES, it's the way he got them... and the ways he didn't get them.

Lots of muffins into the goalie's chest this past season. He wasn't TRYING to snipe corners. Be it PP2 or ES, he just wasn't in the same scoring spots. Focusing on his ES production is a red herring, because ideally if he's that much of a sniper he WILL get PP time and produce PP points. Year 1, he did that. Year 2, he still got the opportunity and he didn't execute the same. His game changed. You can't say we're misremembering it just based on those particular stats. We remember them perfectly. And saw his game change.

All that is true, I agree. But it doesn’t take away the the fact that he was still a lot worse in 20-21 than 21-22 in terms of shot quality.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

All that is true, I agree. But it doesn’t take away the the fact that he was still a lot worse in 20-21 than 21-22 in terms of shot quality.

I guess I don't understand that statement. What is "shot quality"? He scored less on more shots in '21-22 and to the eye, a lot of those shots looked weak and ineffective.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Curious on what line do you guys see Sanford playing?

Also are you happy with that signing? I find him good value for $850K…

I have never really paid much attention to Sanford in the NHL, so probably like a lot of us, I won't really be able to gauge how "happy" I am with the signing until I get to see him play a little more.

I do tend to think a lot of us here have been underrating him in our lineup projections though. He's a big body and has been a regular NHL skater on some good teams. There aren't going to be kids from Milwaukee beating him out for a roster spot. (Well, not unless things go unexpectedly wonderful for those kids or unexpectedly poorly for Sanford). Yet he tends to be discounted/overlooked by some.

But yeah, starting on a 4th line seems like a reasonable projection given how the rest of the roster appears to be shaping up. I would imagine him playing with Tolvanen and Glass/McCarron. And really, any time you get a regular NHL player for $850k it's good value.

 

[neelynugs]

doesn't seem like a ton of room for young guys to crack the lineup. who are the most likely guys to take a good run at that? obviously glass is the key guy up front, but any darkhorses at F or D?

 

[triggrman]

doesn't seem like a ton of room for young guys to crack the lineup. who are the most likely guys to take a good run at that? obviously glass is the key guy up front, but any darkhorses at F or D?

Afanasyev, Novak, Parssinen and Evangilista would be my guesses.

We are crowded right now, but injuries always happen.

 

[neelynugs]

Afanasyev, Novak, Parssinen and Evangilista would be my guesses.

We are crowded right now, but injuries always happen.

anybody on D?

 

[triggrman]

anybody on D?

Not that I can think of yet. Maybe Del Gaizo

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Not that I can think of yet. Maybe Del Gaizo

Probably Jordan Gross is the top option? Although maybe it depends who needs to be replaced on a given callup? But he wrecked the AHL last season and got Year 2 of his contract 1-way. Not a "young guy" per se, but perhaps the first callup anyhow.



EDIT: It's also worth noting that 1-way contract for Gross kicks in next season... for a somewhat smaller PMD-style RD at the league-minimum salary... right when Carrier's league-minimum contract ends... and our Cap space becomes impossibly tight... hmmm....

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

doesn't seem like a ton of room for young guys to crack the lineup. who are the most likely guys to take a good run at that? obviously glass is the key guy up front, but any darkhorses at F or D?

Parssinen and Nurmi are probably the dark horses. We list Afanaseyev because he looked good in camp last year, though he went on to have a disappointing season in Milwaukee. The organization seems to like Cole Smith in a banger role. Novak showed he could play in the league, although he might be stuck in that classic tweener category where his skillset isn't optimal for a bottom-6 role, yet not quite up to top-6 duty. :duty:

Sherwood has a 1-way deal and between him and Glass it's likely a very long shot for anybody else to crack the team, unless there's a slew of injuries.

 

[herzausstein]

doesn't seem like a ton of room for young guys to crack the lineup. who are the most likely guys to take a good run at that? obviously glass is the key guy up front, but any darkhorses at F or D?

Unless we are going to waive Sherwood or Sanford I don’t really see room. We have 10 forwards Id say are roster locks
Forsberg Joey duchene
Nino Granlund tomasino
Trenin sissons jeannot
Tolvanen xxxx yyyy

Sanford, sherwood, and mccarron are all going to be competing hard for the last wing spot and all have nhl experience. Sanford and sherwood are one way contracts and mccarron would get paid 4x the normal ahl contract to be sent down. Doesn’t mean they won’t get waived just that it would make for a very expensive ahl contract.

1 young c will make the team Novak or glass and one of nurmi, Parssinen, Evangalista, afanasyev could push for the bottom line wing. I honestly don’t know what kind of lineup we are looking for here.

One look I’ve kicked around:
Forsberg Granlund duchene
Nino Joey Jeannot (annoying and heavy 2nd line)
Trenin sissons mccarron/Sanford/nurmi/Parssinen (heavy third line)
Tolvanen glass tomasino (kid line)