Predators Hockey Discussion 22-23

[Gh24]

Work smart, not hard

 

[LCPreds]

That Tolvy call out is a good one for anyone who just hasn't been paying attention. I'd hate to give up on a guy with his kind of offensive upside that has done such a great job developing his 2-way game.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

My rankings
Josi
McDonagh
Ekholm
Fabbro
Carrier
Lauzon
Boro

I think the line between Carrier and Fabbro is small. Fabbro better all around, Carrier carries the puck better.

I feel like we've seen the upper limit, or at least close, for Carrier but think Fabbro still has room to grow and solidify his spot as a top pairing NHL D-man.

 

[triggrman]

I haven't heard from him since he left radio. Where is he putting stuff out now? He was always a college football guy. Never really thought his preds stuff was particularly strong.

Podcasts. I’m still trying to find a decent Predators pod

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Podcasts. I’m still trying to find a decent Predators pod

yea the otf ones suck

 

[triggrman]

Sure looks like Fabbro was getting it done to me.

 

[triggrman]

I'm not the advanced stats guy but I still don't understand how anyone could say Fabbro had a bad year.

 

[Armourboy]

I'm not the advanced stats guy but I still don't understand how anyone could say Fabbro had a bad year.

Especially considering he seemed to be playing through a whole lot last year. My biggest issue with stats like that is that they are very blind to the fact that they don't show you who they were going up against night in and night out either. Any way you want to look at it that's a big factor that keeps stats like that from being nearly as good as many want them to be.

 

[triggrman]

Especially considering he seemed to be playing through a whole lot last year. My biggest issue with stats like that is that they are very blind to the fact that they don't show you who they were going up against night in and night out either. Any way you want to look at it that's a big factor that keeps stats like that from being nearly as good as many want them to be.

Haha, shows you what I know, I thought those actually showed he played well.

 

[Armourboy]

Haha, shows you what I know, I thought those actually showed he played well.

They do, but like every other stat, and what is the biggest issue with analytics in hockey, is it lacks the details to really make those numbers work. Even more so when you try and use them to compare and contrast with other players. Your top pairing is going to be up against a whole level of player than your 3rd pairing most of the time. 1st and 2nd may be a bit closer, but even they may differ in how they are used, what the zone starts look like, that kind of stuff.

 

[triggrman]

They do, but like every other stat, and what is the biggest issue with analytics in hockey, is it lacks the details to really make those numbers work. Even more so when you try and use them to compare and contrast with other players. Your top pairing is going to be up against a whole level of player than your 3rd pairing most of the time. 1st and 2nd may be a bit closer, but even they may differ in how they are used, what the zone starts look like, that kind of stuff.

I’ve always hated zone starts as a stat, most changes are on the fly

 

[Armourboy]

I’ve always hated zone starts as a stat, most changes are on the fly

It does make a difference when you consider how many faceoffs there are in a game.

 

[triggrman]

It does make a difference when you consider how many faceoffs there are in a game.

So there’s probably 30 shifts in a game per player, i bet there’s maybe 10 face offs per player, so most shifts are on the fly. Also, it’s not totally controlled. Icings mean you get more d zone starts, likely because you didn’t execute your breakout not because you're the more trusted in the defensive zone.

 

[Armourboy]

So there’s probably 30 shifts in a game per player, i bet there’s maybe 10 face offs per player, so most shifts are on the fly. Also, it’s not totally controlled. Icings mean you get more d zone starts, likely because you didn’t execute your breakout not because your the more trusted in the defensive zone.

How you got there doesn't really matter, but where you are starting most of the time certainly does. There can also be a pretty big swing between players where some will see 60% of their face off starts in the offensive end while another may see more like 20%. It's still a factor that will have an influence on those stats. Its the reason analytics works a heck of a lot better in baseball, not nearly as many variables.

 

[weeze]

Fabbro and Carrier play two different kinds of D so it is hard to compare them. I see Fabbro as the stay at home type. Not relatively fast but allows his partner to do their thing (Josi). Still learning his trade, learning how to be a better defender while his partner is playing more O. Has a decent shot, getting more physical.

Carrier is not as big but is more of a puck mover than Fabbro. Looks like he wants to be the next Josi at times. O is better than D so he relies on his partner more for that (Ekholm). Still learning the NHL speed and feel for the game.

Both are very young and still need growing pains as they gain experience but are very different in their game style.

 

[triggrman]

How you got there doesn't really matter, but where you are starting most of the time certainly does. There can also be a pretty big swing between players where some will see 60% of their face off starts in the offensive end while another may see more like 20%. It's still a factor that will have an influence on those stats. Its the reason analytics works a heck of a lot better in baseball, not nearly as many variables.

Right, too many variables. And how can you say how you got there doesn't matter. You can't change after an icing, that certainly matters.

If I have a defenseman that was on the ice for 10 faceoffs and 3 of those were after icings, 3 of those were defensive zone starts and 4 offensive zone starts. Does that mean I trust him more in the defensive zone? I mean he's 60% defensive zone starts.

Fabbro and Carrier play two different kinds of D so it is hard to compare them. I see Fabbro as the stay at home type. Not relatively fast but allows his partner to do their thing (Josi). Still learning his trade, learning how to be a better defender while his partner is playing more O. Has a decent shot, getting more physical.

Carrier is not as big but is more of a puck mover than Fabbro. Looks like he wants to be the next Josi at times. O is better than D so he relies on his partner more for that (Ekholm). Still learning the NHL speed and feel for the game.

Both are very young and still need growing pains as they gain experience but are very different in their game style.

fyi, fabbro is likely the only defenseman on the roster close to Josi in speed.

 

[Olderfan]

Fabbro is spectaculary average, steady. He is probably(debatable) at his peak level now. And that’s good because he’s a Dman and he plays D well. We act sometimes like that’s not a good thing. Well, it is a good thing. Preds would be looking for him to play with a Josi type if they didn’t have him. And remember, it’s not necessary to critique Josi’s play to justify Fabbro’s D. Everybody can’t be a $9M superstar and we need to remember that when discussing Fabbro. And he needs to remember that and be what he is; reliable Dman.

 

[triggrman]

Fabbro is spectaculary average, steady. He is probably(debatable) at his peak level now. And that’s good because he’s a Dman and he plays D well. We act sometimes like that’s not a good thing. Well, it is a good thing. Preds would be looking for him to play with a Josi type if they didn’t have him. And remember, it’s not necessary to critique Josi’s play to justify Fabbro’s D. Everybody can’t be a $9M superstar and we need to remember that when discussing Fabbro. And he needs to remember that and be what he is; reliable Dman.

I agree with most of this but to say Fabbro is at his peak level now having just turned 23, to me isn't realistic.

 

[Predsanddead24]

With regards to Glass I’ve seen a few people talk about his size but despite being tall I’ve never noticed him really using that size for anything. To me he seems to play much smaller than he is.

 

[weeze]

fyi, fabbro is likely the only defenseman on the roster close to Josi in speed.

Maybe in a straight line without the puck. Not in the 60+ games I watched this past season and not with the puck. Ekholm and Carrier are faster with the puck then he is but again as I said he plays a different style of D than Carrier. Not saying it is good or bad but different. And with him being so young he has the ability to become a better D player. I like his aggressiveness he showed last season.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

With regards to Glass I’ve seen a few people talk about his size but despite being tall I’ve never noticed him really using that size for anything. To me he seems to play much smaller than he is.

Concur. I think people need to temper their expectations a little bit with Glass. It's possible he proves himself capable of being an everyday NHL player. But I think people should leave a little room in their imaginations for the alternative... it's also possible that he won't. He had a good season in Milwaukee, but he's 23 now and the AHL offramps are littered with players who didn't have quite that extra step needed to translate minor league success into NHL success.

 

[Olderfan]

I agree with most of this but to say Fabbro is at his peak level now having just turned 23, to me isn't realistic.

Certainly makes sense but I haven’t noticed any particular O skills and he seems stuck on just getting better on D which is, of course, possible.

 

[triggrman]

Certainly makes sense but I haven’t noticed any particular O skills and he seems stuck on just getting better on D which is, of course, possible.

defensive positioning probably takes the longest to develop.

 

[Armourboy]

Right, too many variables. And how can you say how you got there doesn't matter. You can't change after an icing, that certainly matters.

If I have a defenseman that was on the ice for 10 faceoffs and 3 of those were after icings, 3 of those were defensive zone starts and 4 offensive zone starts. Does that mean I trust him more in the defensive zone? I mean he's 60% defensive zone starts.


fyi, fabbro is likely the only defenseman on the roster close to Josi in speed.

You are trying to put too much into that stat. I'm not talking about it as an individual stat, I'm talking about how it will affect others. It doesn't matter how you are getting there for it to blend into other stats and to put a monkey wrench into things when you are making comparables. A stat like Corsi has the same issue, and is one reason it's lost favor recently.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Fabbro is spectaculary average, steady. He is probably(debatable) at his peak level now. And that’s good because he’s a Dman and he plays D well. We act sometimes like that’s not a good thing. Well, it is a good thing. Preds would be looking for him to play with a Josi type if they didn’t have him. And remember, it’s not necessary to critique Josi’s play to justify Fabbro’s D. Everybody can’t be a $9M superstar and we need to remember that when discussing Fabbro. And he needs to remember that and be what he is; reliable Dman.

lol what hes like 24 … josi just peaked at like 31