Potential Atlanta NHL Expansion Team Thread

[dj4aces]

On the one hand...

Infrastructure on 400 is being addressed, and Krause's group is grading the land, so he definitely seems well aheada of anyone else. But I'm still not sure about him and his group, because we still don't know anything about the people backing it. That's the *counts* $3bn dollar question right now. Who else is involved?

With Carter's announcement this week, having the backing of the Mooseheads folk, the COO of the Texas Rangers, and the Zeigler family, I was sure we were going to find out who is backing and funding Krause's efforts. But instead, we get a press release talking of an arena management company. Which is fine, I suppose. Demonstrate that you're already doing work and trying to stay one step ahead, but I want to be confident in the Krause group too. All we know of is Krause and his wife, and something tells me she doesn't have $3bn laying around to pay for all this.

Then there's the shadowy third group that only LeBrun seems to know anything about. Who, exactly, are they? What are their plans?

Ultimately, we can sit and judge each group based on whether they're building something, whether or not a vote is required for any of this, and more...but the league is the one who makes the final decision on any of this, and I'm willing to bet that between the Coyotes situation, the Smith group in Salt Lake, and the now three(!) competing groups here in Atlanta, the BoG has been pretty well active in conducting due diligence and attending to other business concerns.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Then there's the shadowy third group that only LeBrun seems to know anything about. Who, exactly, are they? What are their plans?

Maybe LeBrun will Tweet a mysterious picture of a shoe to clue us in.

 

[sneakytitz]

Then there's the shadowy third group that only LeBrun seems to know anything about. Who, exactly, are they? What are their plans?

Hopefully it isn't Tony Ressler, but I wouldn't be surprised given that he's building his own $5 billion entertainment district around State Farm and would love 41 more events to attract people there before and after a game.

 

[nhlfan79]

Hopefully it isn't Tony Ressler, but I wouldn't be surprised given that he's building his own $5 billion entertainment district around State Farm and would love 41 more events to attract people there before and after a game.

If that's the mystery third person, he'd have to basically undo hundreds of millions of dollars of renovations to SFA to make it hockey compatible again. And he'd also still have the original hurdle of the poor downtown location to overcome.

 

[aqib]

Oddly, one of my buddies went to north point mall today. Apparently the Sbarro has closed.

With or without an arena, it needs an overhaul. Malls in the 90’s format just don’t survive anymore. Make it a green space with an open container policy and maybe a movie theater and some other entertainment.

Could that be because their pizza sucks? They've filed Chapter 11 twice for a reason.

 

[sneakytitz]

If that's the mystery third person, he'd have to basically undo hundreds of millions of dollars of renovations to SFA to make it hockey compatible again.

The only thing in play would be reinstalling the ice equipment and the franchise fee.

 

[nhlfan79]

The only thing in play would be reinstalling the ice equipment and the franchise fee.

My understanding is that the entire lower bowl was reconfigured during the renovations, and the closest permanent seats in at least one of the end zones (if not both) would basically be at the height of the top of the glass, leading to obstructed views in the near attacking zone.

 

[Melrose Munch]

My understanding is that the entire lower bowl was reconfigured during the renovations, and the closest permanent seats in at least one of the end zones (if not both) would basically be at the height of the top of the glass, leading to obstructed views in the near attacking zone.

If that's the mystery third person, he'd have to basically undo hundreds of millions of dollars of renovations to SFA to make it hockey compatible again. And he'd also still have the original hurdle of the poor downtown location to overcome.

The only thing in play would be reinstalling the ice equipment and the franchise fee.

Those seats at the front look temporary. Would cost money but they could be removed. Prefer downtown for an arena sport anyway. Football and Baseball are different.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Those seats at the front look temporary. Would cost money but they could be removed. Prefer downtown for an arena sport anyway. Football and Baseball are different.

Atlanta is so sprawling that you have to bring the devlopment to the ticket buyers if you want hockey to work. Example, while Atlanta's MSA becoming the 6th largest is impressive, I'll admit, it's slightly misleading. Atlanta's MSA consists of 28 counties. It's like the size of Connecticut.

 

[nhlfan79]

Those seats at the front look temporary. Would cost money but they could be removed. Prefer downtown for an arena sport anyway. Football and Baseball are different.

They absolutely are, but the footprint of a 200x85 ice sheet would extend all the way to the permanent seats. That's my point.

 

[sneakytitz]

They absolutely are, but the footprint of a 200x85 ice sheet would extend all the way to the permanent seats. That's my point.

Not quite. With the seats retracted, the arena floor is 237'x85'. The rink, presumably, would be almost 20 feet away from the start of sections 101-104 and 112-115.

If you've seen any of the NHL games that SLC/Vivint Arena has hosted, it'd basically look just like that.

 

[nhlfan79]

Not quite. With the seats retracted, the arena floor is 237'x85'. The rink, presumably, would be almost 20 feet away from the start of sections 101-104 and 112-115.

If you've seen any of the NHL games that SLC/Vivint Arena has hosted, it'd basically look just like that.
View attachment 836496

But you can't see the near zone action if you're in those elevated seats, which again is my point. It physically can fit a rink, but the resulting sightlines would be terrible.

 

[sneakytitz]

But you can't see the near zone action if you're in those elevated seats, which again is my point. It physically can fit a rink, but the resulting sightlines would be terrible.

The lowest seats in sections 112-115 would be roughly 10 feet off the floor and almost 20 feet back. There wouldn't be an obstructed view there. 101-104 about 20 feet off the floor for 10 rows and then the terrace and 200 sections start with much steeper angles. If there were to be slightly obstructed views, it's 101-104 but I can't imagine there would be.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[KevFu]

Florida, Carolina, and Tampa are ~30 year old teams. They aren’t new teams anymore like they were in 2000.

To be fair though.... for many folks (myself included), I still think of teams like Carolina as "new". But for some reason, I'm still stuck in my early-20s, despite having aged a good 20 years since then.

I'm a little behind in replies, (it's Championship Week!)...
I don't mean anything disrespectful like "those guys don't have fans!" It's economics.

When new teams are born, less than "all" the market switches allegiances from their old team to the new. Fans tend to pick their teams when they're children: Like 7 or 8 years old, so the fan base size of teams born in the 1990s is going to get bigger as time goes on. Every new generation has a local team, people over the age of 38 might have already become a loyal follower and not given that team up.

Then you look at incomes by age. Earnings peak from 45-55. And disposable income is even higher, because generally speaking, that's empty nest time: you're no longer putting cash into college funds, and providing for children.

It's a quick easy cop-out to point at attendance and say "they don't like (sport) in that market!" when the reality is the best source of revenue for teams (45-55) are people who didn't grow up loving the team because it didn't exist yet.

Forget hockey and the Coyotes.... the Arizona Diamondbacks don't draw well. But the Suns don't have attendance issues. It's not a basketball vs baseball thing, it's that the Suns were there in 1970s.

So facing that kind of financial disadvantage vs teams that have been around more generations, lumping them together in one division gives them more games vs each other and less games vs established teams. Which hurts ticket sales to fans of the visiting team.

Somewhere on this site is an old data dump of looking at a decade's worth of attendance by visiting opponents. Fewer people buy tickets when new brands come to town.

There's going to be more visiting fans for older brands than newer brands in every city, simply because the bigger markets usually got teams first, there's more generations worth of movement from city to city, and there's not a short window where "I left before that team existed."

If someone "grew up" a Hurricanes fan, left NC to go to college, got a job in Florida and goes to see the Canes when they play TB or FLA, there's a very narrow window for how old that fan can be. They've probably never sent a fax and always had a perfect Taylor Swift single for whatever was going on in their life. Whereas a Sabres fan in Florida could be 22 to 62. So you're selling visiting tickets to 40 years worth of transplants instead of 15.

 

[tucker3434]

With the Krause group, I think we know that they're building the entertainment district with or without the arena. So we may not want to read too deeply into that. They definitely could be ready more quickly, but I'm not sure that translates to a winning bid with the NHL. When all the two groups will tell us is about their "productive talks" with the league, it's hard to get a read on what's really going on.

Could that be because their pizza sucks? They've filed Chapter 11 twice for a reason.

Now you listen here, poor business practices are not the same as bad food. Quiznos was also a victim (RIP goat chain sandwich shop).

 

[aqib]

Now you listen here, poor business practices are not the same as bad food. Quiznos was also a victim (RIP goat chain sandwich shop).

Sure there are cases of good companies that produced good products that went out of business. However, Sbarro is NOT good pizza. I have the waist line to prove I know pizza.

 

[dj4aces]

Those seats at the front look temporary. Would cost money but they could be removed. Prefer downtown for an arena sport anyway. Football and Baseball are different.

I understand the idea of downtown being the better place. After all, the goal is to attract folks from all corners outside the city to converge in one place. Problem for hockey is, the overwhelming majority of those folks from outside the city is north of town. I was one of the few who lived south of town during the Thrashers days who attended games... and by few, I mean I could count the number of fans heading south from Five Points station after games on one hand, while northbound trains were filled with folks.

That raises another issue, really, and that's how much mass transit in Atlanta sucks. MARTA is a great idea with incredibly poor implementation. Had they used light rail when they were putting it together, it wouldn't be nearly as much of an issue (though there'd still be a fair bit of NIMBY types and other general whiners). As I understand it, the only reason they went with heavy rail is because they got to go to Paris. Then there's the issue of it not going where people actually want to go, and with poorly designed bus routes, it all adds up to it being a really bad time. Resurrect Sherman and tell him to torch MARTA instead, because that system needs a complete redesign and overhaul.

As much as Atlanta fancies itself as a New York kind of city, it's really not. Atlanta is a case study for urban sprawl, not a densely populated city center.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Sure there are cases of good companies that produced good products that went out of business. However, Sbarro is NOT good pizza. I have the waist line to prove I know pizza.

Welp, I can now rule out aqib as the third potential owner as the Sbarro Center arena won’t be built on his watch.

Agree though… Sbarro was gross.

 

[Melrose Munch]

I understand the idea of downtown being the better place. After all, the goal is to attract folks from all corners outside the city to converge in one place. Problem for hockey is, the overwhelming majority of those folks from outside the city is north of town. I was one of the few who lived south of town during the Thrashers days who attended games... and by few, I mean I could count the number of fans heading south from Five Points station after games on one hand, while northbound trains were filled with folks.

That raises another issue, really, and that's how much mass transit in Atlanta sucks. MARTA is a great idea with incredibly poor implementation. Had they used light rail when they were putting it together, it wouldn't be nearly as much of an issue (though there'd still be a fair bit of NIMBY types and other general whiners). As I understand it, the only reason they went with heavy rail is because they got to go to Paris. Then there's the issue of it not going where people actually want to go, and with poorly designed bus routes, it all adds up to it being a really bad time. Resurrect Sherman and tell him to torch MARTA instead, because that system needs a complete redesign and overhaul.

As much as Atlanta fancies itself as a New York kind of city, it's really not. Atlanta is a case study for urban sprawl, not a densely populated city center.

I don't disagree at all, and this is a very well-thought-out post. But my issue is, building this thing all the way north in Forsyth County, then in 30-40 years demanding a downtown arena because the traffic is too much and it's hard to get to because of growth.

We'll see, I'm probably wrong for now.

 

[nhlfan79]

I had a random thought pop into my head today. With all of this flurry of news over the past month or so, one name always seems to pop up when Atlanta and professional hockey are discussed: Tom Glavine. I find it absolutely remarkable that one of Atlanta's highest-profile legends, who is also well-known to be a huge hockey fan, hasn't said a word to anyone about any of these recent developments. It would blow my mind if he wasn't already a minority partner with one of these three(?) groups.

 

[dj4aces]

For anyone who hasn't yet, you can listen to the 32 Thoughts podcast here. Atlanta starts at ~15 seconds in, if you wanna skip the intro.

I don't disagree at all, and this is a very well-thought-out post. But my issue is, building this thing all the way north in Forsyth County, then in 30-40 years demanding a downtown arena because the traffic is too much and it's hard to get to because of growth.

We'll see, I'm probably wrong for now.

I mean... who really knows what will be in 30 years? 30 years ago, Forsyth County was too far away for pretty much anything. Today, folks say that, but the urban sprawl has definitely gobbled up south Forsyth and is working its way north. The county has grown exponentially over that 30 year span. Hell, in 30 years, Alpharetta could be to Atlanta what Ft. Worth is to Dallas. Who really knows for sure? Only one thing is certain right now, and it's this area -- Duluth, Alpharetta, Cumming, Norcross -- is experiencing exponential growth, and it's not slowing down anytime soon.

 

[Lions67]

Just for nostalgia purposes, but I would love the third group to be spearheaded by……

The Balkan
Haha!!
I’m just playing, I have come around to Atlanta and I do think they will do well this time.
ASG were/ are douchebags

 

[dj4aces]

Just for nostalgia purposes, but I would love the third group to be spearheaded by……

The Balkan
Haha!!
I’m just playing, I have come around to Atlanta and I do think they will do well this time.
ASG were/ are douchebags

Yo man, all we need is a John Kincade tweet of a shoe!

 

[barkovcanfinnish]

When new teams are born, less than "all" the market switches allegiances from their old team to the new. Fans tend to pick their teams when they're children: Like 7 or 8 years old, so the fan base size of teams born in the 1990s is going to get bigger as time goes on. Every new generation has a local team, people over the age of 38 might have already become a loyal follower and not given that team up.

Then you look at incomes by age. Earnings peak from 45-55. And disposable income is even higher, because generally speaking, that's empty nest time: you're no longer putting cash into college funds, and providing for children.

It's a quick easy cop-out to point at attendance and say "they don't like (sport) in that market!" when the reality is the best source of revenue for teams (45-55) are people who didn't grow up loving the team because it didn't exist yet.

Forget hockey and the Coyotes.... the Arizona Diamondbacks don't draw well. But the Suns don't have attendance issues. It's not a basketball vs baseball thing, it's that the Suns were there in 1970s.

So facing that kind of financial disadvantage vs teams that have been around more generations, lumping them together in one division gives them more games vs each other and less games vs established teams. Which hurts ticket sales to fans of the visiting team.

Somewhere on this site is an old data dump of looking at a decade's worth of attendance by visiting opponents. Fewer people buy tickets when new brands come to town.

There's going to be more visiting fans for older brands than newer brands in every city, simply because the bigger markets usually got teams first, there's more generations worth of movement from city to city, and there's not a short window where "I left before that team existed."

If someone "grew up" a Hurricanes fan, left NC to go to college, got a job in Florida and goes to see the Canes when they play TB or FLA, there's a very narrow window for how old that fan can be. They've probably never sent a fax and always had a perfect Taylor Swift single for whatever was going on in their life. Whereas a Sabres fan in Florida could be 22 to 62. So you're selling visiting tickets to 40 years worth of transplants instead of 15.

Those are fair points. I’m just pointing out that those three teams have established themselves a lot more than they had when the southeast division existed. I don’t think a division featuring all of those teams with an expansion Atlanta franchise would be a problem as much as some might think, especially if they feature the teams in the New York/Philly area in their division. Those teams all have established fanbases that travel well too, while being a better fit in a geographical

Also, a city like Atlanta has rivalries in other pro sports leagues with all of those cities/areas. That doesn’t hurt ticket sales.

Also, while it may help ticket sales to have teams from up North travel to your arena to root for their team, ultimately you’re trying to attract fans in your market to come to your games, because those are the people that buy season tickets and support the team itself. Florida had to live like this for years and thankfully the team is doing much better now.