Blue Jays Discussion: Post Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Edition

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Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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The big problem with WPA is that it doesn't control how many clutch opportunities player A got compare to play B. Player A possessing a better WPA than player B could simply mean that player A has appeared in more "clutch situations" than player B. The stat WPA/LI goes one step farther than WPA by controlling the number of high pressured situations player A and B has appeared on. With this in mind, we can now see that Morales' slightly higher WPA compare to EE was simply the result of Morales having appeared in more high leverage situation so far this season compare to EE, which makes sense considering the number of close scoring games the Jays has played this season. Morales WPA/LI has actually been a pretty disappointing -.26, which is categorized by fangraphs as being below league average, while EE's WPA/LI on the other hand has been an impressive 1.82 this year which would again be categorized by fangraphs as being above the league average and close to the "great" score. So as great as those walk off HR by Morales has been this season, if he were to come to the plate in a close ball game, the safer bet would be to expect him to hit another GB to the middle infield or to strikeout at a breaking ball.

I'm not trying to use WPA to determine who's better or who would be more likely to produce a result for us had we gotten 1 over the other. Just sheer what each player has done this year to help their team win games, Morales has netted 88% of a win, Edwin 98%. Like you said this can helped be explained by Morales getting higher leverage situations. But you can't really just plug Edwin into those situations and assume he would have gotten a much higher WPA. I like WPA/LI, but if I don't care about context I'll often just look at WAR(which isn't the same thing but as long as you know what you're measuring offense v. everything, and what it's compared to replacement v average you shpuld be fine) so I don't tend to use it very often. I like WPA when I want to know actual impacts on the field which like you said can be heavily influenced by situation, but I like the beauty of measuing exactly what happened and how it impacted the teams chances of winning even though it's not predictive at all, and Morales is really bad it actually hasn't cost us on the field yet which it likely will the rest of this year and in the next 2 years. He's just been clutch(1.02 v. -0.83 for Edwin) which you wouldn't expect to continue moving forward because clutch isn't a skill but beceuase he's been clutch in those lots of high leverage situations he's gotten for what we spent on him he just hasn't been a negative on us to this point which is the point I was trying to make.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Why was a Friday game in the afternoon? What kinda crap is that? Instead of going home and cracking a cold one and watching a game I got to do what? Hang out with my wife?

Cubs can't play night home games on Friday/Saturday because Wrigley Field is in a residential area.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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But its okay for during the week? how does that make sense?

No, if I remember correctly they only have a certain amount of night games they are allowed to have during the entire season. It's just Friday and Saturday are absolutely no goes, and they only get Sunday night games when they are on ESPN. I know historically they were the last team to add lights to their stadium, so it was a longstanding tradition of playing day games. The idea surrounding the opposition of night games after that was because the surrounding neighbourhood had to deal with congestion/parked cars, the noise, and the lights.
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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Nate Pearson pitching tonight for the C's. Makes me laugh because I missed his last start sandwiched between the two games I went to around the weekend, and then if he holds to schedule on a 5-day turnaround, I'm going miss his next 2 starts by a day (he'd pitch on Wednesday and the following Monday. I have tickets for Tuesday and Sunday)

Someone doesn't want me to see Pearson live :laugh:
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Can't believe they removed Pearson when he had a perfect game going :sarcasm:

He's been something else though man, this is now 5 games with Vancouver, 12 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, 14 K's, 0 runs. Can't wait to see how he does in Lansing I assume next year. Maybe even Dunedin. He could rocket up prospect lists quickly if he keeps this up.
 

deletethis

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Mar 17, 2015
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Pearson has one single NCAA season pitching 33 innings in 19 appearances. I now get why the Blue Jays are stretching him out slowly.
 

hoglund

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Dec 8, 2013
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No, if I remember correctly they only have a certain amount of night games they are allowed to have during the entire season. It's just Friday and Saturday are absolutely no goes, and they only get Sunday night games when they are on ESPN. I know historically they were the last team to add lights to their stadium, so it was a longstanding tradition of playing day games. The idea surrounding the opposition of night games after that was because the surrounding neighbourhood had to deal with congestion/parked cars, the noise, and the lights.

I don't think that's true, the Hamilton Tiger Cats play in a residential area and all of their games this year are night games. Traditionally the Cubs play day games, they were the last MLB team to get lights, I think it's tradition that keeps them playing day games, not being in a residential area.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
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The Cubs absolutely have a city ordinance that limits the amount of night games they play

Hamilton is a slightly different city than Chicago
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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Pearson has one single NCAA season pitching 33 innings in 19 appearances. I now get why the Blue Jays are stretching him out slowly.

This isn't accurate. He pitched 81 innings for his JUCO team this season. The 33 IP in 19 appearances were from 2016 when he was a freshman at FIU. He transferred to Central Florida JC after that season and made 13 starts this year.

The 3-4 inning outings isn't anything out of the norm for newly drafted College pitchers.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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Curtis Granderson to the Dodgers for a PTBNL.

Pederson being optioned to AAA. Wonder if he could be had and if the price is right... could be a good buy low candidate in the offseason. They need a legit CF, 3 years of Pillar for 3 years of Pederson?

Hernandez/Alford/Pederson for 2018?

Aoki or Carrera for the 4th OF spot?
 
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