Blue Jays Discussion: Post Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Edition

[Bad News Benning]

can't wait for Vlad and Bo to show up so people can stop obsessing over Edwin.

 

[zeke]

by the time edwin's contract expires vlad and bo will be superstuds.

 

[Eyedea]

and by "leverage" you mean "random chance".

Which directly shows his contributions to winning games offensively. Just because it isn't a predictive measurement doesn't mean he hasn't provided value in high leverage situations.

I can't believe there's people still trying to defend the EE/Morales stuff.

Like, EE is exactly what everyone thought he would be (a continuously declining, yet right now still above average to fringe elite hitter). Morales is what some of us on here thought he would be (a continuously declining, absolute donkey of a baseball player).

But we will always have the Kendrys Morales anomalous 2016 contact scores (which have shockingly regresesd back to his 3,500-ish pre-2016 PA sample size norms) to remember him by. Godspeed.

Morales was worth 1.2 WARP last year compared to EE's 2.7. His contract being basically half of EE's, while the contact scores and shift from Kauffman to Rogers indicated a potential improvement in performance and a fair contract value. I don't know why that was so hard to believe half a year ago.

Everyone was complaining about Smoak's extension when it was these numbers (and xstats) that predicted an improvement in performance.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Morales over Edwin has kinda been a win so far as helping the team wins games go. For 55% of the money, he's produced 90% of the WPA(0.88 v. 0.98 for Edwin). Now obviously with how awful he actually is and has been you wouldn't expect that good sequencing luck to continue moving forward, but just saying to this point he hasn't been the negative that he will probably be moving forward and that this year so far we've been getting more bang for our Buck on Morales helping us win than Cleveland has gotten on Edwin helping them win.

 

[VanW27]

Off topic a bit but SnetNow is how I watch the Jays so I thought it would be worth asking.

A couple days ago the Sportsnet Now website and app were updated, good news is it looks better now, bad news is chromecasting is now garbage.

Video works fine when watching directly on my phone or laptop but when i try to cast it buffers and pauses constantly.

Anyone else having this issue or have any advice on fixing it?

Thanks,

 

[weems]

Agreed. I honestly think he's doubling down on being wrong on Bichette. Probably had to grit his teeth to put him in the top 50.

I just looked up Willy Adames #'s
How is this guy considered such a high prospect?
Never posted a OPS above .810 in the minors and has a above 25% strikeout rate in almost 2000 AB's.

I know Bichette hasnt played above high A but he certainly looks like a better prospect.

 

[Eyedea]

I just looked up Willy Adames #'s
How is this guy considered such a high prospect?
Never posted a OPS above .810 in the minors and has a above 25% strikeout rate in almost 2000 AB's.

I know Bichette hasnt played above high A but he certainly looks like a better prospect.

Plus power and plus defence at shortstop. Walks a lot, cut down his strikeout rate, he's actually a really good prospect. I think the bigger question is why is Corey Ray still top 30?

 

[weems]

Plus power and plus defence at shortstop. Walks a lot, cut down his strikeout rate, he's actually a really good prospect. I think the bigger question is why is Corey Ray still top 30?

I didnt say he wasnt a "good" prospect but does he deserve to be borderline top 10?

He has 111 strikeouts this season in 428 AB's.

 

[hoc123]

Vlad Jr just hit his second homer in high A.

 

[canucksfan]

Vlad Jr just hit his second homer in high A.

After a slow start with power he is really mashing the ball now. I think his slugging could be over .600 for the month of August. His OBP for August is very close to .500 too,

 

[Eyedea]

I didnt say he wasnt a "good" prospect but does he deserve to be borderline top 10?

He has 111 strikeouts this season in 428 AB's.

Well I said very good, like a ~55 FV, maybe borderline 60, which is what Longenhagen likely has him as. He hasn't had a wRC+ under 120 in the minors and is in his age 21 season at AAA. Lindor for example was 21 in his first stint at AAA but had an 88 wRC+ (though he was toolsy and a 70 grade defender).

 

[zeke]

3gms out

 

[Anthrax442]

Off topic a bit but SnetNow is how I watch the Jays so I thought it would be worth asking.

A couple days ago the Sportsnet Now website and app were updated, good news is it looks better now, bad news is chromecasting is now garbage.

Video works fine when watching directly on my phone or laptop but when i try to cast it buffers and pauses constantly.

Anyone else having this issue or have any advice on fixing it?

Thanks,

Do you have just Snet now or thats on top of the regular rogers account?

 

[Eyedea]

So despite Dunedin getting absolutely shelled today (resulting in Jake Thomas and Ryan Hissey pitching), a little nugget in the pitching line showed Zach Jackson struck out 5 in 1.2 innings. His strikeout rate has bumped well over 11 per 9 now and opponents are hitting .176 against him. Walks/command is obviously his issue, but this was a potential first round pick in 2016 that is showing dominant stuff in the pen. He might not be a starter like he was projected to be heading into his junior season, but he could be fast tracked to a midseason/August bullpen role next season.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Morales over Edwin has kinda been a win so far as helping the team wins games go. For 55% of the money, he's produced 90% of the WPA(0.88 v. 0.98 for Edwin). Now obviously with how awful he actually is and has been you wouldn't expect that good sequencing luck to continue moving forward, but just saying to this point he hasn't been the negative that he will probably be moving forward and that this year so far we've been getting more bang for our Buck on Morales helping us win than Cleveland has gotten on Edwin helping them win.

The big problem with WPA is that it doesn't control how many clutch opportunities player A got compare to play B. Player A possessing a better WPA than player B could simply mean that player A has appeared in more "clutch situations" than player B. The stat WPA/LI goes one step farther than WPA by controlling the number of high pressured situations player A and B has appeared on. With this in mind, we can now see that Morales' slightly higher WPA compare to EE was simply the result of Morales having appeared in more high leverage situation so far this season compare to EE, which makes sense considering the number of close scoring games the Jays has played this season. Morales WPA/LI has actually been a pretty disappointing -.26, which is categorized by fangraphs as being below league average, while EE's WPA/LI on the other hand has been an impressive 1.82 this year which would again be categorized by fangraphs as being above the league average and close to the "great" score. So as great as those walk off HR by Morales has been this season, if he were to come to the plate in a close ball game, the safer bet would be to expect him to hit another GB to the middle infield or to strikeout at a breaking ball.

 

[Suntouchable13]

When was the last time a catcher other than Martin to get a hit? It's been ridiculous.

 

[ryno23]

Off topic a bit but SnetNow is how I watch the Jays so I thought it would be worth asking.

A couple days ago the Sportsnet Now website and app were updated, good news is it looks better now, bad news is chromecasting is now garbage.

Video works fine when watching directly on my phone or laptop but when i try to cast it buffers and pauses constantly.

Anyone else having this issue or have any advice on fixing it?

Thanks,

I noticed the same thing. Unwatchable on Chromecast

 

[ShaneFalco]

When was the last time a catcher other than Martin to get a hit? It's been ridiculous.

Or throw out someone stealing?

 

[VanW27]

Do you have just Snet now or thats on top of the regular rogers account?

Just SportsnetNow

 

[VanW27]

I noticed the same thing. Unwatchable on Chromecast

Thanks, at least I know it's not just me now.

 

[phillipmike]

Went to the game last night and Travis was working out and taking batting practice. I wouldnt be surprised if he goes for assignment this month in the minors and is back before the first week of September.

 

[phillipmike]

Donaldson is white hot... Just a few weeks ago his wRC+ was 113. Its now 150. In his last 30 days his bat has been as valuable as Stanton's;

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...2017&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=

Team had great balance for obvious reasons in 2015 then started declining for more obvious reasons... But it has always been the same; we end up wherever Donaldson can take us.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/josh-donaldson-resuscitated-season-just-19-days/

 

[zeke]

for all the talk about the older guys diminishing, it's the injuries to prime guys like Donaldson, Sanchez, and Travis which really killed us this year.

 

[phillipmike]

for all the talk about the older guys diminishing, it's the injuries to prime guys like Donaldson, Sanchez, and Travis which really killed us this year.

Its both; if we were healthy we would be in a better spot. Conversely, if the older players didnt have such a sharp decline we would be in a better spot. If we were healthy and didnt have a decline we would be in the division hunt.

But i agree with you definitely injuries more than anything. A healthy Donaldson, Sanchez and Travis goes much further than less sharp decline in Bautista, Tulo, Liriano, and Morales. Donaldson alone or Sanchez alone could probably make up for that old player list that declined.

 

[Discoverer]

First 13 games in Dunedin
65 wRC+
10.5 BB%
19.3 K%
.000 ISO

Last 20 games in Dunedin
219 wRC+
22.2 BB%
11.1 K%
.191 ISO

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is really good at baseball.