Blue Jays Discussion: Post Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Edition

[Discoverer]

Don't know about you, but I am not looking forward to this comparison in years 2 and 3 on Fat Mo's deal.

It's not like Edwin and Fowler are going to get better for those years.

 

[Lightsol]

Don't know about you, but I am not looking forward to this comparison in years 2 and 3 on Fat Mo's deal.

It's almost like signing free agents is a wild-ass guessing game, and sometimes you get burned...

Anyways, update:

Bautista+Morales: $29.5m, -0.7war
Encarncion+Fowler: $36.5m, +3.4war

Please keep ignoring that the Blue Jays offered Edwin the same contract he got from Cleveland, with an extra year on it. His choice to say no. But of course, the blame ACTUALLY likes with the management; they don't have a crystal ball they could use to see that the market for DH hitters would be lousy this year and they could have won this game of chicken...

What would you be saying if the Jays had ended up having to mimic the Red Sox DH situation?

 

[Eyedea]

sometimes the concept of "surplus value" isn't as important as it sounds. Encarnacion is the 16th best hitter in the AL this year.

And when you include leverage, 0.19 of a win separates EE and Morales.

 

[zeke]

and by "leverage" you mean "random chance".

 

[Kurtz]

Given that he's a negative WAR player and likely to get worse as he gets even older, should we just treat Morales as a sunk cost and cut him loose? This would allow Pearce to DH full time and help keep him in the lineup more often.


One would think Shatkins might be hesitant to do this and lose face, but they did it with the final 2 years of the Swisher deal, and he was making $14m/per.

 

[zeke]

they'll only ever make the moves based on their projections, and I'm sure their projected value for morales the next 2yrs is worth that investment in their eyes.

 

[Discoverer]

Given that he's a negative WAR player and likely to get worse as he gets even older, should we just treat Morales as a sunk cost and cut him loose? This would allow Pearce to DH full time and help keep him in the lineup more often.

One would think Shatkins might be hesitant to do this and lose face, but they did it with the final 2 years of the Swisher deal, and he was making $14m/per.

Considering they're starting two of Barney/Goins/Refsnyder every day right now, it wouldn't make any sense to cut him altogether. At the very least they can keep him around as a bat off the bench. Just give him a bit less playing time.

If the roster spot is a concern and you want more flexibility, then you just have to suck it up for two weeks until rosters expand.

 

[Discoverer]

they'll only ever make the moves based on their projections, and I'm sure their projected value for morales the next 2yrs is worth that investment in their eyes.

Remember when you insisted they would never make a major signing, then listed Bautista as someone who you would consider a major signing?

 

[stickty111]

Shapiro's players are keeping the team in it. They are carrying AA's players on their back.
Shapiro looks to be a better talent evaluator than reputation king AA

 

[Discoverer]

Shapiro's players are keeping the team in it. They are carrying AA's players on their back.
Shapiro looks to be a better talent evaluator than reputation king AA

And in comes the anti-zeke to balance things out.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Kind of weird to see Alford ranked ahead of Bo. It seems like plenty of scouting services are very reluctant to move BO drastically up their prospect rankings and are still skeptical for some reason.

I think at this point he should clearly be at worst a top 20 leaguewide prospect.

Agreed. I honestly think he's doubling down on being wrong on Bichette. Probably had to grit his teeth to put him in the top 50.

 

[phillipmike]

Remember when you insisted they would never make a major signing, then listed Bautista as someone who you would consider a major signing?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=124370407&postcount=267
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125739565&postcount=272
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125312977&postcount=770
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125257173&postcount=945
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125143931&postcount=559

 

[Discoverer]

Agreed. I honestly think he's doubling down on being wrong on Bichette. Probably had to grit his teeth to put him in the top 50.

BA has him at 44, too. MLB.com has him at 30. BP has him highest at 29.

I think he should be higher, for sure, because I put a lot of weight in actual on-field performance, but it's not like the Fangraphs placement is an outlier, and Longenhagen has been pretty open about being wrong about him in chats.

 

[zeke]

Shapiro's players are keeping the team in it. They are carrying AA's players on their back.
Shapiro looks to be a better talent evaluator than reputation king AA

players shapiro has brought in from outside the org (avg of fwar and ra9war for pitchers):

1.Happ 1.8war
2.Leone 1.3
3.Smith 0.9
4.Biagini 0.7
5.Pearce 0.5
6.Liriano 0.3
7.Refsnyder/Aoki/Sparkman/Harrell 0.0
8.Campos -0.1
9.Ohlman -0.1
10.Tepesch -0.1
11.Lopez -0.2
12.Latos -0.2
13.Beliveau -0.3
14.Howell -0.3
15.Montero -0.4
16.Bolsinger -0.5
17.Coghlan -0.6
18.Salty -0.6
19.Grilli -0.7
20.Morales -0.7
21.Maile -0.8

Total: -0.1war

 

[theaub]

I can't believe there's people still trying to defend the EE/Morales stuff.

Like, EE is exactly what everyone thought he would be (a continuously declining, yet right now still above average to fringe elite hitter). Morales is what some of us on here thought he would be (a continuously declining, absolute donkey of a baseball player).

But we will always have the Kendrys Morales anomalous 2016 contact scores (which have shockingly regresesd back to his 3,500-ish pre-2016 PA sample size norms) to remember him by. Godspeed.

 

[Discoverer]

I can't believe there's people still trying to defend the EE/Morales stuff.

1. Edwin costs twice as much money. So far it looks like it would have been worthwhile to spend the extra money. Except...

2. The Jays actually offered him even more than twice as much money. It sucks that they gave him a firm deadline, but it was nice of them to extend it multiple times to try to get it done.

 

[theaub]

I don't feel like rehashing November arguments but whatever.

Shapiro did not want Edwin back. Everyone single person who even remotely followed baseball knew that Edwin was not signing the 4/80 deal and was going to wait the market out. There has never been a scenario in the history of baseball free agency where management truly wanted to keep a player who was hitting free agency, and then gave him a deadline to sign before any single major free agent signing had happened (if anyone can find one please prove me wrong).

Does it suck for Edwin that the market didn't work out for him? Sure I guess (although he is cruising into the playoffs while the Jays are the 4th worst team in the AL). But that in absolutely no way should change the narrative as to what happened here.

Shapiro didn't want Bautista back either, except he did such a trash job of figuring out the outfield situation that Rogers had to give him $18M for a nil WAR baseball player.

When you go back and look at it, what an absolute trainwreck of an offseason.

 

[MS]

Given that he's a negative WAR player and likely to get worse as he gets even older, should we just treat Morales as a sunk cost and cut him loose? This would allow Pearce to DH full time and help keep him in the lineup more often.


One would think Shatkins might be hesitant to do this and lose face, but they did it with the final 2 years of the Swisher deal, and he was making $14m/per.

This should be the plan at this point.

Morales is a sub-replacement level player this year, will be 35 next year and fat and out of shape, and is in a steep decline. There won't be any miracles next season.

At this point you have to eat that contract to have more roster flexibility. Move Pearce to DH or look at signing a JD Martinez or Jay Bruce to DH/LF.

 

[canucksfan]

I don't feel like rehashing November arguments but whatever.

Shapiro did not want Edwin back. Everyone single person who even remotely followed baseball knew that Edwin was not signing the 4/80 deal and was going to wait the market out. There has never been a scenario in the history of baseball free agency where management truly wanted to keep a player who was hitting free agency, and then gave him a deadline to sign before any single major free agent signing had happened (if anyone can find one please prove me wrong).

Does it suck for Edwin that the market didn't work out for him? Sure I guess (although he is cruising into the playoffs while the Jays are the 4th worst team in the AL). But that in absolutely no way should change the narrative as to what happened here.

Shapiro didn't want Bautista back either, except he did such a trash job of figuring out the outfield situation that Rogers had to give him $18M for a nil WAR baseball player.

When you go back and look at it, what an absolute trainwreck of an offseason.

I don't think it was a trainwreck at all. Morales bad signing. Pearce has been a good signing. Bautista didn't work out but can understand the reasoning behind it. They didn't do anything stupid like overpay for Fowler. One area they screwed up on was the depth.

 

[theaub]

Pearce can hit, but as usual he was hurt for a good period of time and can't defend. The latter issue is partially attributable to Smoak being good and thus needing Pearce in the OF but the flipside of that is...what if Smoak wasn't good? This would be an all-time WOAT hitting outfield, and Pearce's bat is nothing more than a middle of the pack 1B.

The best signing they made was Joe Smith.

 

[canucksfan]

A write up on Maverik Buffo.

https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/2017/08/maverik-aims-to-be-blue-jays-top-gun.html

Seems to be some potential with him.

 

[canucksfan]

Pearce can hit, but as usual he was hurt for a good period of time and can't defend. The latter issue is partially attributable to Smoak being good and thus needing Pearce in the OF but the flipside of that is...what if Smoak wasn't good? This would be an all-time WOAT hitting outfield, and Pearce's bat is nothing more than a middle of the pack 1B.

The best signing they made was Joe Smith.

That would definitely be a problem regarding Smoak. Smith was a great singing. Howell was another bad signing.

 

[Kurtz]

Considering they're starting two of Barney/Goins/Refsnyder every day right now, it wouldn't make any sense to cut him altogether. At the very least they can keep him around as a bat off the bench. Just give him a bit less playing time.

If the roster spot is a concern and you want more flexibility, then you just have to suck it up for two weeks until rosters expand.

I'm talkin' about the plan for him next season and the one after.

 

[phillipmike]

I don't feel like rehashing November arguments but whatever.

Shapiro did not want Edwin back. Everyone single person who even remotely followed baseball knew that Edwin was not signing the 4/80 deal and was going to wait the market out. There has never been a scenario in the history of baseball free agency where management truly wanted to keep a player who was hitting free agency, and then gave him a deadline to sign before any single major free agent signing had happened (if anyone can find one please prove me wrong).

Does it suck for Edwin that the market didn't work out for him? Sure I guess (although he is cruising into the playoffs while the Jays are the 4th worst team in the AL). But that in absolutely no way should change the narrative as to what happened here.

Shapiro didn't want Bautista back either, except he did such a trash job of figuring out the outfield situation that Rogers had to give him $18M for a nil WAR baseball player.

When you go back and look at it, what an absolute trainwreck of an offseason.

Do you make 5 offers in less than 9 months if you dont want the player back?

“The Jays are showing Edwin the most love,†Kinzer said. “We’re talking. They want him back. Ross has been talking to Edwin. They have a great relationship.â€

http://www.tsn.ca/encarnacion-s-agent-says-jays-showing-edwin-the-most-love-1.619496

I question if it was Edwin who wanted back. He said sign me before the season or else i am not negotiating in season. Jays gave him an offer in ST, a QO, an offer after the season of $70 over 4 years then bumped it up to 80M over 4 years then bumped it again with a vesting option to bring it to 100M. Edwin said no to the at least Jays 5 different times.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/timeline-negotiations-blue-jays-encarnacion/

 

[Discoverer]

I'm talkin' about the plan for him next season and the one after.

Ah. Well... yeah, maybe then. I guess it depends what the options are for his roster spot, but they would probably be better off with the flexibility of not having him there. I think the more likely scenario would be that they let him start the season to see if he can bounce back and then cut him a couple months in if he doesn't.