Value of: PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left?

[Habs Halifax]

It doesn’t matter that Habs fans have different opinions on this. What is relevant is talking about reasonable trade compensation for Dubois.

If Hab fans think it only makes sense to trade for him for bargain trade compensation that is less than the Jets could obtain from other teams, just be quiet and don’t propose stupid deals That don’t make any sense for the Jets.

Months later, we have to reiterate this point again.

Trouba or Horvat trade value will be our approach and that is not unresonable. Some Habs fans say no to trading the Panthers pick and some say yes. Other teams in the mix will have a hard time trumping that prime piece IMO.

Habs will offer slightly more than one RFA year of value. How many teams will Dubois be open to in sign/trade? You will say, there will be many but not so sure it plays out that way. Lets say there are 3 or 4 teams he is open to sign/trade.... Do those teams have a pick from 12-18 range to offer? Not likely.

There is a lot of things being repeated. You're context being repeated does not trump others. So set that narrative aside.

 

[pth2]

If Hab fans think it only makes sense to trade for him for bargain trade compensation that is less than the Jets could obtain from other teams, just be quiet and don’t propose stupid deals That don’t make any sense for the Jets.

Those other teams might well steer clear if they know Dubois would at best be a rental.
And my point above was that Winnipeg might be better off building around the pieces they get from Dubois, giving Hellebuyck, Schiefele and co a good idea that management wants to stay competitve, before signing, rather than going for broke in '24.... and not knowing what the future holds.

 

[Guffman]

Let's just summarize why this discussion is difficult to have at this point in time.

No one can reasonably predict what the Jets approach to team building will be this upcoming offseason. The Jets will only have 1 year more of control of three incredibly important players... their all-star, Vezina calibre goaltender Hellebuyck and their two top centres that are both 1C talents (Schiefele and Dubois).

What if some or all are not interested in extending? Do we start a massive rebuild this summer? Do we hold onto some for TDL sales? Does this season's playoff run influence what we do (first round exit versus a long playoff run)?

We don't know. We don't know who is interested in extending and who is not. We don't know what Jets ownership direction will be (rebuild or go for it one more year). Accordingly, it's very difficult to say what should be done with Dubois because he can't be treated in isolation from what else is going on with the team.

 

[tbcwpg]

What do you mean? Dach was acquired to be part of the core but I'm sure the expectation (as it is with all NHL players) was that he'd be an immediate contributor to the team, which he's been. They gave up a high pick for something more tangible, which is an option I'm suggesting Winnipeg could use. Florida's pick should be pretty high. The Habs could offer a great prospect like Owen Beck.

He was acquired to be part of the core, sure, and to play this season, sure, but Winnipeg and Montreal are at different times in their timeline, and any "immediate help" would need to contribute towards winning in the playoffs now and not in a couple of years when the core would be ready, like in Montreal.

I'm not sure what Florida's 1st and Beck would get that the Jets would need. They'd need a top 6 C to replace Dubois. I don't see that from Florida's 1st and Owen Beck unless there's some player with one year left on his contract who's longed to play for Winnipeg and will only sign long-term here. The Jets would have to add to that and that's even if someone is available.

1) I don't see the Jets letting him play out his RFA years and then walking where they get nothing. Sorry, I think that if the Jets can't convince him to extend this summer, they will trade him for the best return they can get and then focus on other trades or UFA signings.

2) The message to Scheifele and Helle is a factor yes. Do the Jets want a mini rebuild or do they want to go all in and remain a team chasing the playoffs. Lots of information can get gathered from now till July 1st and after July 1st, the Jets can look into Scheifele and Helle extensions.... if they choose to do so.

Dach was acquired cause we had depth at LD and not much at center. And the cost to get Dach was cheap so it made sense. Dubois does not make the Habs a playoff team next year. It's just another piece we are trying to add and he's only 2.5 years older than Dach. Habs are not looking at the draft only for our rebuild. Some fans think we are but it's false.

I don't either. So the message to Hellebuyck and Scheifele is sent this summer, whatever message would be sent at the deadline next season doesn't matter. The Jets will have to decide whether going for it again next season and getting the most out of the 3 players deals is worth whatever small-ish return Montreal would offer. It may be that going for it again next year is worth more to the Jets ownership than Florida's 1st, a bad contract, and a B prospect.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't either. So the message to Hellebuyck and Scheifele is sent this summer, whatever message would be sent at the deadline next season doesn't matter. The Jets will have to decide whether going for it again next season and getting the most out of the 3 players deals is worth whatever small-ish return Montreal would offer. It may be that going for it again next year is worth more to the Jets ownership than Florida's 1st, a bad contract, and a B prospect.

Habs offer will be in line with what Horvat and Trouba returned so it's not small-ish. Expecting much more than Horvat or Trouba is reaching IMO. Bad contract? Not really cause bad contracts to me are 3+ years. Hoffman and Armia are not bad contracts. Neither is Dvorak. A bad contract is Gallagher. Canucks took on Beauvillier in the Horvat trade. Hoffman would be close to that type of NHL contract and the term is only one year.

Panthers 1st is a good prime piece considering the circumstances. It gives you a real shot at getting another Perfetti, Connor, or Morrisey. Jets do draft well and a pick from 12-18 range is solid cause the draft should be still deep around that point. Jets can also decide to move Scheifele and Helle if Dubois still wants out and the other two ponder about staying as well. I would imagine the Avs would be all over Scheifele and his value cap hit. Helle would be a major target in net as well. The returns for all 3 would be massive in terms of accelerating a Jets mini reset. If they decide to do so.

Jets can also try to sign Larkin (if he reaches UFA) or use the futures from the Dubois return to get someone else in another trade. Toews may be a cheap signing as well (he comes home). Jets are not screwed if they trade Dubois for futures and a NHL contract like Hoffman or Armia.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

He was acquired to be part of the core, sure, and to play this season, sure, but Winnipeg and Montreal are at different times in their timeline, and any "immediate help" would need to contribute towards winning in the playoffs now and not in a couple of years when the core would be ready, like in Montreal.

I'm not sure what Florida's 1st and Beck would get that the Jets would need. They'd need a top 6 C to replace Dubois. I don't see that from Florida's 1st and Owen Beck unless there's some player with one year left on his contract who's longed to play for Winnipeg and will only sign long-term here. The Jets would have to add to that and that's even if someone is available.



I don't either. So the message to Hellebuyck and Scheifele is sent this summer, whatever message would be sent at the deadline next season doesn't matter. The Jets will have to decide whether going for it again next season and getting the most out of the 3 players deals is worth whatever small-ish return Montreal would offer. It may be that going for it again next year is worth more to the Jets ownership than Florida's 1st, a bad contract, and a B prospect.

That's completely fair. Winnipeg might just be looking at a situation where they're better off trying to keep Dubois for another year and then losing him for nothing. And I'm not being sarcastic at all.

 

[LVCarson]

The press conference was an attempt to calm down the noise. Dubois will say what he has to say just like Tavares said what he said when he was with the Islanders.

I get it, you don't like it cause it's tracking another Trouba situation. I wouldn't like it either. The context is adding up but you can continue to ignore it and call it all rumors. It's a bit more than just rumors at this point bud. Good luck

Wait, so now you’re saying what Dubois has to say is just bullshit, and he just wants to calm down the media and rumours? How does him saying WINNING is the most important thing to him (which he has said multiple times) calm down things in any way? Montreal is obviously not in his plans.

If he said something like “I am looking at joining a bottom team in the league and wait for another 5 or 6 years to make the playoffs” then he is your man, but that is not what he said.

I get it, you think rumours from media and other Hab fans are facts. I just know when you want the truth you go to the source. You fairytale world you go to the source and then say…hey he didn’t mean what he actually said….he really just said that to calm thing down. Wait isn’t that just a hab fan making up more rumours? Interesting.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Wait, so now you’re saying what Dubois has to say is just bullshit, and he just wants to calm down the media and rumours? How does him saying WINNING is the most important thing to him (which he has said multiple times) calm down things in any way? Montreal is obviously not in his plans.

If he said something like “I am looking at joining a bottom team in the league and wait for another 5 or 6 years to make the playoffs” then he is your man, but that is not what he said.

I get it, you think rumours from media and other Hab fans are facts. I just know when you want the truth you go to the source. You fairytale world you go to the source and then say…hey he didn’t mean what he actually said….he really just said that to calm thing down. Wait isn’t that just a hab fan making up more rumours? Interesting.

Yes, the press conference to me was to calm down the noise. What he said is not bullshit. He is just saying the things he needs to say and most of his comments was about his focus on the current season. I think he respects the Jets very much and he decided to give the Jets time to manage him as an asset before he heads to UFA. You don't have to agree but IMO, the press conference was to calm down the noise/rumors. Dubois at that point already made the decision to commit to this current season and help the Jets reach the playoffs. That was his main message. You trying to spin that into bullshit comments is weird.

 

[LVCarson]

Well, with all of the young guns the Habs already have at defense.

With two young guns at center in Suzuki and Dach.

With tons of good prospects (not one is great, but a lot of quality depth) in the pipeline.

Habs might not prolong their rebuild too much.

If fact, even if Habs didn't officialized their rebuild until last year, they where in semi-reconstruction since the 2018 summer.

They stockpiled draft picks while still trying to win. It's absurd but it was MB (and Molson) strategy.

They didn't sold their value UFAs when the timming was there but still managed to draft 356775434678 times since the 2018 draft .. and it paid off.

Adds the two high picks in the coming (very good) draft.

If PLD wants to come here, he would immediately makes this team better.

But with all those quality youngster eventually coming in, PLD might be smart to foresee a not so far apart positive environment for him in MTL.

And PLD seems to me like a smart kid

Didn’t we hear all the same Young Guns talk about KK, Poehling, Romanov, Juulsen, Scherbak….oh Fucale was an untouchable goalie for the next 10 years, but now all your picks are can’t miss?

I am sure PLD is a smart kid. Smart enough that he knows young guns that haven’t done anything but lose, is not something he is going to gamble his career on.

 

[tbcwpg]

Habs offer will be in line with what Horvat and Trouba returned so it's not small-ish. Expecting much more than Horvat or Trouba is reaching IMO. Bad contract? Not really cause bad contracts to me are 3+ years. Hoffman and Armia are not bad contracts. Neither is Dvorak. A bad contract is Gallagher. Canucks took on Beauvillier in the Horvat trade. Hoffman would be close to that type of NHL contract and the term is only one year.

Panthers 1st is a good prime piece considering the circumstances. It gives you a real shot at getting another Perfetti, Connor, or Morrisey. Jets do draft well and a pick from 12-18 range is solid cause the draft should be still deep around that point. Jets can also decide to move Scheifele and Helle if Dubois still wants out and the other two ponder about staying as well. I would imagine the Avs would be all over Scheifele and his value cap hit. Helle would be a major target in net as well. The returns for all 3 would be massive in terms of accelerating a Jets mini reset. If they decide to do so.

Jets can also try to sign Larkin (if he reaches UFA) or use the futures from the Dubois return to get someone else in another trade. Toews may be a cheap signing as well (he comes home). Jets are not screwed if they trade Dubois for futures and a NHL contract like Hoffman or Armia.

Hoffman is a year away from UFA so he's really a non-starter, you might as well just keep Dubois in that case if you're Winnipeg. Armia is not playing well, Dvorak doesn't replace Dubois' production. The team is worse in any of those scenarios. If the Jets are giving up the best player in the trade, they're definitely not ALSO doing Montreal any cap favours at the same time without an increased return from the Habs. I believe Vancouver got Beauvillier with the attempt to keep him after this year. I don't think Winnipeg and Hoffman have that luxury.

If the Jets are moving both of their top 6 Cs and Vezina goalie, they aren't doing a "mini reset". That's full on rebuild territory.

Big LOL on Winnipeg trying to sign a big UFA. Toews may never play again and still, he's not Dubois. I went over it with another poster that the Dubois return doesn't give the Jets assets to replace the 2C hole.

In all scenarios, the Jets are worse. You can try to sugar coat cap dumps like Hoffman or Armia all you want, it's not happening.

 

[Huffer]

So wait out for the Horvat trade value? Could get worse and the pick is 25+ range where the prospect is not as good as Raty.

Jets may be a playoff team again next year so then what? Trade Dubois in a playoff chase? What a message to fans that would be. Doubt this is in their playbook.

Or maybe we see what Meier goes for as well.

 

[Captain97]

Or maybe we see what Meier goes for as well.

Okay but Meier to our knowledge isn't heavily restricting what teams he can be traded to.

 

[tbcwpg]

Okay but Meier to our knowledge isn't heavily restricting what teams he can be traded to.

To be fahhhhhrrr, Grier won't let teams talk to Meier's agent so we don't know that for sure.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Didn’t we hear all the same Young Guns talk about KK, Poehling, Romanov, Juulsen, Scherbak….oh Fucale was an untouchable goalie for the next 10 years, but now all your picks are can’t miss?

I am sure PLD is a smart kid. Smart enough that he knows young guns that haven’t done anything but lose, is not something he is going to gamble his career on.

All you are doing is throwing jabs at the Habs direction and playing an exaggerated spin game now. Remember when the Jets fans base said Perfetti was a solution at center? Every fan base has the gullible types, including yours.

The Habs direction is very solid. We have more work to do yet but the youth on our current team is playing very well and our pool has lots of prospects trending very well. Our youth and pool today is stronger than it was in decades. Not all of them will turn into what we think they will but probability due to quantity is working in our favor. Our draft power was very high for a few drafts now.

Dubois will consider the Habs. You just don't like it and will play the spin game now.

 

[Captain97]

To be fahhhhhrrr, Grier won't let teams talk to Meier's agent so we don't know that for sure.

Wait, why the F*** won't Grier let GM's talk to his agent.

 

[tbcwpg]

Wait, why the F*** won't Grier let GM's talk to his agent.

No one has said for sure. My guess is he wants to wait it out as long as he can so more teams drive up the bidding war.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Or maybe we see what Meier goes for as well.

Sign/trades are tricky. Meier (like Dubois) can return a lot if they are open to signing with 5+ teams and not one. How much does sign/trade increase value? That varies from player to player and circumstances matter.

If Meier gets traded this deadline, that's two playoff runs of team control. If he gets traded this summer, then it's like Dubois. Meier has that stupid $10M arbitration factor which affects things as well.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hoffman is a year away from UFA so he's really a non-starter, you might as well just keep Dubois in that case if you're Winnipeg. Armia is not playing well, Dvorak doesn't replace Dubois' production. The team is worse in any of those scenarios. If the Jets are giving up the best player in the trade, they're definitely not ALSO doing Montreal any cap favours at the same time without an increased return from the Habs. I believe Vancouver got Beauvillier with the attempt to keep him after this year. I don't think Winnipeg and Hoffman have that luxury.

If the Jets are moving both of their top 6 Cs and Vezina goalie, they aren't doing a "mini reset". That's full on rebuild territory.

Big LOL on Winnipeg trying to sign a big UFA. Toews may never play again and still, he's not Dubois. I went over it with another poster that the Dubois return doesn't give the Jets assets to replace the 2C hole.

In all scenarios, the Jets are worse. You can try to sugar coat cap dumps like Hoffman or Armia all you want, it's not happening.

I doubt you will not take a contract back in any Dubois trade (with or without the Habs). You're overlooking that part and I know for a fact that not all Jets fans think the same like you on this part. It's not a deal breaker but you are acting like it is. I pass on that part.

If the Jets move all 3, it's not a full on rebuild. You still have good parts left. Are you saying you will trade Connor and Morrisey too?

I think the Jets could be UFA players if Dubois is traded. Cap structure is open for them to do it. I just don't see the jets overpaying on UFA... like if Larkin wanted $9.5M+ type thing. At $8.5M, Jets would consider it cause it's basically what you would be offering Dubois. Don't agree with your big LOL.

It's not the Habs problem that your GM traded Laine/Rost for Dubois thinking you can convince him to stay. You can try to take that out on the Habs all day long. Dubois, Scheifele, Helle are going to tell you what direction you head towards based on their intentions to stay or not. That's not the Habs problem.

Okay but Meier to our knowledge isn't heavily restricting what teams he can be traded to.

This is true but his $10M arbitration is a factor. Meier and his agent has to know that nobody offers that on a long term deal. So then I wonder... who is Meier open to signing long term with and do the Sharks allow other teams to talk to him on an extension?

 

[tbcwpg]

I doubt you will not take a contract back in any Dubois trade (with or without the Habs). You're overlooking that part and I know for a fact that not all Jets fans think the same like you on this part. It's not a deal breaker but you are acting like it is. I pass on that part.

If the Jets move all 3, it's not a full on rebuild. You still have good parts left. Are you saying you will trade Connor and Morrisey too?

I think the Jets could be UFA players if Dubois is traded. Cap structure is open for them to do it. I just don't see the jets overpaying on UFA... like if Larkin wanted $9.5M+ type thing. At $8.5M, Jets would consider it cause it's basically what you would be offering Dubois. Don't agree with your big LOL.

It's not the Habs problem that your GM traded Laine/Rost for Dubois thinking you can convince him to stay. You can try to take that out on the Habs all day long. Dubois, Scheifele, Helle are going to tell you what direction you head towards based on their intentions to stay or not. That's not the Habs problem.



This is true but his $10M arbitration is a factor. Meier and his agent has to know that nobody offers that on a long term deal. So then I wonder... who is Meier open to signing long term with and do the Sharks allow other teams to talk to him on an extension?

Sure, the Jets might take a contract back, but that changes the price. You think the Habs will get Dubois AND clear out a contract for Florida's 1st and a B level prospect? Even the Rangers didn't ask the Jets to take back a contract with Trouba.

I'm saying you don't have a contending team with just a defenceman and a couple of wingers. The Jets have no real goaltending prospect to speak of. They don't have prospects ready to plug in at the holes that they'll be losing at - most project as wingers. Rebuilds in the NHL don't always mean "every good player is traded".

In the same vein that it's not Montreal's problem that Laine was traded for PLD, it's not Winnipeg's problem that Montreal has contracts it'll need to move to get PLD signed. Move them elsewhere, I hear Arizona needs contracts.

The LOL to UFAs is to that you must not be aware of Winnipeg's reputation as a free agency destination. Overpaying UFAs is exactly what they have to do and even then that's often not enough. At least two players the Jets were reportedly after in UFA this past summer went elsewhere, and they were depth Jarnkrok types. Wait until Dylan Larkin gets his UFA offers and sees Winnipeg's in the pile - it's in the garbage can immediately. The Jets can't leverage cap space into UFAs like most other teams. I'm sure the Jets would definitely consider Larkin at 8.5, they'd also consider him at 9.5. What number does that have to be for Larkin to consider the Jets? Higher than 9.5 I'm guessing.

 

[Huffer]

Okay but Meier to our knowledge isn't heavily restricting what teams he can be traded to.

It doesn't sound like the Sharks are letting teams speak about contracts.

And we also don't 100% sure know at this time if PLD will only sign with Montreal or if he could be persuaded by money and opportunity to win at other places as well.

At the very least, whatever Meier goes for is another data point.

Sign/trades are tricky. Meier (like Dubois) can return a lot if they are open to signing with 5+ teams and not one. How much does sign/trade increase value? That varies from player to player and circumstances matter.

If Meier gets traded this deadline, that's two playoff runs of team control. If he gets traded this summer, then it's like Dubois. Meier has that stupid $10M arbitration factor which affects things as well.

I'm just saying it's another data point. PLD is also younger and a centre.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure, the Jets might take a contract back, but that changes the price. You think the Habs will get Dubois AND clear out a contract for Florida's 1st and a B level prospect? Even the Rangers didn't ask the Jets to take back a contract with Trouba.

I'm saying you don't have a contending team with just a defenceman and a couple of wingers. The Jets have no real goaltending prospect to speak of. They don't have prospects ready to plug in at the holes that they'll be losing at - most project as wingers. Rebuilds in the NHL don't always mean "every good player is traded".

In the same vein that it's not Montreal's problem that Laine was traded for PLD, it's not Winnipeg's problem that Montreal has contracts it'll need to move to get PLD signed. Move them elsewhere, I hear Arizona needs contracts.

The LOL to UFAs is to that you must not be aware of Winnipeg's reputation as a free agency destination. Overpaying UFAs is exactly what they have to do and even then that's often not enough. At least two players the Jets were reportedly after in UFA this past summer went elsewhere, and they were depth Jarnkrok types. Wait until Dylan Larkin gets his UFA offers and sees Winnipeg's in the pile - it's in the garbage can immediately. The Jets can't leverage cap space into UFAs like most other teams. I'm sure the Jets would definitely consider Larkin at 8.5, they'd also consider him at 9.5. What number does that have to be for Larkin to consider the Jets? Higher than 9.5 I'm guessing.

It didn't change the price with Beauvillier in the Horvat trade and Hoffman has the same term left. Both players are a little on the soft side as wingers with past good sample sizes here and there. The NHL contract going back won't be a deal breaker IMO. Jets don't have that much leverage with the sign/trade approach and most teams who would be in on Dubois this summer will ask for a contract going the other way. Probably a 1 or 2 year term max. There is way too much focus on this part of the package. I repeat, we are not asking for you to take on Gallagher's contract.

Habs don't care about your assessment on our direction. If Dubois wants to come home, we will try to get a trade that works. If it don't, we take our chances he reaches UFA. Our team direction is not your concern (with our without Dubois in our line-up). Also, your team direction if Dubois does not extend this summer is your prerogative.

If you can do better with other teams, I'm sure you will try. I doubt Chevy tries another trade where he takes a soon to be UFA again with the hopes he extends. Been there, done that with Dubois. Didn't work. At the end of the day, Dubois, Scheifele, Helle force your hand and team direction. That's not the Habs fault.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

In all scenarios, the Jets are worse. You can try to sugar coat cap dumps like Hoffman or Armia all you want, it's not happening.

Jets will get worse with any trade they make involving Dubois they wont be getting fair value with GMs knowing what PLD wants

 

[LVCarson]

Yes, the press conference to me was to calm down the noise. What he said is not bullshit. He is just saying the things he needs to say and most of his comments was about his focus on the current season. I think he respects the Jets very much and he decided to give the Jets time to manage him as an asset before he heads to UFA. You don't have to agree but IMO, the press conference was to calm down the noise/rumors. Dubois at that point already made the decision to commit to this current season and help the Jets reach the playoffs. That was his main message. You trying to spin that into bullshit comments is weird.

So why would he go to a bottom team like Montreal when he could go to any team he thinks gives him the best chance to WIN? You trying to spin rumours in to truth is weird.

 

[tbcwpg]

It didn't change the price with Beauvillier and Hoffman has the same term left. Both players are a little on the soft side as wingers with past good sample sizes here and there. The NHL contract going back won't be a deal breaker IMO. Jets don't have that much leverage with the sign/trade approach and most teams who would be in on Dubois this summer will ask for a contract going the other way. Probably a 1 or 2 year term max.

Habs don't care about your assessment on our direction. If Dubois wants to come home, we will try to get a trade that works. If it don't, we take our chances he reaches UFA. Our team direction is not your concern (with our without Dubois in our line-up). Also, your team direction if Dubois does not extend this summer is your prerogative.

You've spent pages saying "We'll pay our price and if you want it then fine". You're not looking to assess "PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left". It's another exercise in Montreal fans telling Jets fans "You'll take this and if not too bad". You decided on his value before clicking "Create Thread" and then ignored any context Jets fans have attempted to provide. My belief is that Beauvillier was acquired with a view to keeping him long term.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You've spent pages saying "We'll pay our price and if you want it then fine". You're not looking to assess "PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left". It's another exercise in Montreal fans telling Jets fans "You'll take this and if not too bad". You decided on his value before clicking "Create Thread" and then ignored any context Jets fans have attempted to provide. My belief is that Beauvillier was acquired with a view to keeping him long term.

Yes, we will look at offering the Trouba and/or Horvat trades and try to offer something similar. At least that's what I think we will do. Not all Habs fans think the same on this.

A little humor for you... With Hoffman in the package, you get $50 back bud.