I think your information is suspect here. The only time I’ve seen a favorite like this was Tampa when they were on their run.
Playoff Watch 2021
- Thread starter Ted Hoffman
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Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
Post out on the main boards where it was mentioned: According to Moneypuck's Cup odds
Like I said, no idea if that's accurate or not or what exactly it was purportedly showing.
This was Dom’s model he publishes in the Athletic, not Moneypuck. I’m not familiar with the volatility of Moneypuck’s model, but Dom’s hasn’t been flipping around rapidly.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
OK. I don't follow either, so ...
Yes, it's still on my radar to dig out something I built years back and toyed around with and was half-happy with, but noted things I needed to correct to get it to where I thought it was usable. I may have to consider going back to it again and trying to get it to where I wanted it to be, then enhance it some more from there
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
We will stay in a top-4 position a little longer. Colorado is going to polish off Arizona, keeping them a point back.
- Jul 4, 2014
- 7,983
- 8,465
I had a buddy who was an actuary who built a model for ranking college football teams completely based off in-season stars. All teams start tied. We used to celebrate every year when the teams all became connected.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
Did he creep you out when you two spent a lot of time together and he was always staring at your shoes?
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
| Pos | Team | PT+ | GR | RW | ROW | Max PTS |
1 | Colorado | +16 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 92 |
2 | Vegas | +15 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 92 |
3 | Minnesota | +11 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 88 |
4 | Arizona | +2 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 77 |
5 | St. Louis | +2 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 78 |
6 | San Jose | E | 20 | 10 | 11 | 76 |
7 | Los Angeles | -1 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 76 |
8 | Anaheim | -10 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 64 |
Yes, that would be yours, mine, everyone's St. Louis Blues now sitting out of a playoff spot. And, pending the game on the 17th, we're really down another point because of tiebreaks.
I would nudge the line for making the playoffs down to 61 points. Had Arizona not scrambled back for a win last night, I would have cut it another 2 points to 59. I don't see us getting to 59, much less 61, unless we get our shit together now.
ChuckLefley
Registered User
- Jan 5, 2016
- 1,681
- 1,050
Did you really say were cruelly down another point because we have a game in hand????
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 17,249
- 6,202
Normally I would be excited about the game at hand, but when is the last time we won a game? We know the Blues have a better team on paper and should be able to put perform AZ. But, they haven’t and seemingly we are in free fall. Sure we are playing close games, but it seem like we are finding any possible way to lose them.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
ChuckLefley
Registered User
- Jan 5, 2016
- 1,681
- 1,050
The thing is that when a team is playing like that, all it takes is one break to get them on a roll.
I think I may have been rooting for the wrong team in the Sharks/Kings game. The Blues are tied with San Jose now and 1 point behind Arizona. Going to be an exciting race. The Kings have faded a bit.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
| Pos | Team | PT+ | GR | RW | ROW | Max PTS |
1 | Colorado | +17 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 92 |
2 | Vegas | +14 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 90 |
3 | Minnesota | +12 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 88 |
4 | Arizona | +3 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 77 |
5 | St. Louis | +1 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 76 |
6 | San Jose | +1 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 76 |
7 | Los Angeles | -2 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 74 |
8 | Anaheim | -10 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 63 |
If it wasn't evident before, we're in trouble.
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Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 17,249
- 6,202
Sure. That’s true. And we are playing better, but that game in hand is now gone and we are point behind to show for it.
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
That's why I hate talking about we have games in hand. They're only useful if you capitalize on them. You don't bank on yes, we have games in hand and we're sure to win most / all of them. It's relying on a razor-thin margin of error for an optimistic outcome. You bag your points early when you have the chance and you bury teams you're supposed to so you're not in the spot of having to rely on but we have games in hand.
- Feb 12, 2008
- 19,754
- 9,285
especially when all your games in hand are against the top 3 teams in the division. No easy task.
AjaxManifesto
Pro sports is becoming predictable and boring
Our season seems to depend on Parayko. I don't think we have a chance without him. In the meantime, we have got to start scoring more goals. We have 7 goals in our last 6 games. We're simply better than that. We aren't going to consistently win games 1-0 or 2-1 without a healthy Parayko in the lineup. If we can start potting 3+ goals in some of these games, we can mitigate the lack of defense due to Parayko being gone. That's just not happening at the moment and it shows.
Our forwards have got to start contributing offensively, especially Schenn, Schwartz, Thomas, Kyrou, Sanford and Hoffman. They combine for a whopping 2 goals and 4 points in those 6 games. That's embarrassing. 6 players who's main purpose is to score can't even hit a total of 6 points.
I understand injuries being a big factor in the 1st half of the season, but by now we've got pretty much every forward back. We actually scored more goals when we were ravaged by injuries. Something's gotta give. I'm still optimistic that this is just a rut and that the offensive floodgates are going to open here soon, but it's getting closer and closer to the end of the year and Parayko still ain't that close. We've got 19 games left, so I don't think we should be in complete panic mode. If we can go just a little around .500 until Parayko returns (hopefully he actually returns this year) I'll feel a lot better. It starts with the offense though.
Our forwards have got to start contributing offensively, especially Schenn, Schwartz, Thomas, Kyrou, Sanford and Hoffman. They combine for a whopping 2 goals and 4 points in those 6 games. That's embarrassing. 6 players who's main purpose is to score can't even hit a total of 6 points.
I understand injuries being a big factor in the 1st half of the season, but by now we've got pretty much every forward back. We actually scored more goals when we were ravaged by injuries. Something's gotta give. I'm still optimistic that this is just a rut and that the offensive floodgates are going to open here soon, but it's getting closer and closer to the end of the year and Parayko still ain't that close. We've got 19 games left, so I don't think we should be in complete panic mode. If we can go just a little around .500 until Parayko returns (hopefully he actually returns this year) I'll feel a lot better. It starts with the offense though.
- Feb 12, 2008
- 19,754
- 9,285
Ted Hoffman
Done
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,289
- 8,727
We have a Cup in my lifetime. I got to watch a parade down Market. I'm good for a while.
This is why we have the last column on the chart to interpret the PT+ number. I really don’t see anyone doing what you’re describing, assuming the games in hand are wins. It’s just helpful to monitor the available points especially in a year like this when there are big gaps between amounts of games played (though those are getting less).
I think it’s most realistic to forecast about 1 point per game in hand, or just slightly more. That’s the closest to actual points percentages for the teams in the hunt for the last spot.
I got some flack when I suggested the Sharks would get into the race about a month ago. They’re playing better. But if you put Arizona, San Jose, LA and the Blues into a tournament, I’d bet on the Blues. Yes I know the schedule is not easy, but it’s also not impossible. A lot of the teams in the chase have to play each other. It’s going to come down to whether the Blues can accrue points vs Minnesota or not. Get 60% of those points and I think it will be enough with the rest of the schedule.
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