Playoff Watch 2021

[BlueSeal]

Pos	Team	PT+	GR	RW	ROW	Max PTS
1​	Vegas​	+14​	25​	17​	22​	95​
2​	Colorado​	+13​	24​	18​	21​	93​
3​	Minnesota​	+11​	24​	17​	21​	91​
4​	St. Louis​	+4​	23​	11​	14​	83​
5​	Los Angeles​	E​	24​	11​	12​	80​
6​	Arizona​	E​	23​	11​	11​	79​
7​	San Jose​	-1​	25​	8​	9​	80​
8​	Anaheim​	-10​	22​	5​	8​	68​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We're still in this.

I believe.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The way it's going, Blues Knight may win this one by a landslide. I believe in us, but I'd never make the bet that they'd make the playoffs, especially if we stand pat.

I’ll stand by the offer, but he didn’t take me up on it anyway.

 

[BlueSeal]

I’ll stand by the offer, but he didn’t take me up on it anyway.

You know, I admire your good faith. I’d take you up on that offer if he doesn’t just on that.

 

[TheDizee]

Pos	Team​	PT+	GR	RW	ROW	Max PTS
1​	Vegas​	+15​	24​	17​	23​	95​
2​	Colorado​	+13​	23​	18​	21​	92​
3​	Minnesota​	+11​	24​	17​	21​	91​
4​	St. Louis​	+2​	21​	11​	14​	80​
5​	Arizona​	+2​	21​	13​	13​	79​
6​	Los Angeles​	E​	24​	11​	12​	80​
7​	San Jose​	-3​	23​	8​	9​	76​
8​	Anaheim​	-9​	21​	6​	9​	68​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

BTW: since we started this thread and going to this method of looking at the standings we're 2-6-1. I'm not superstitious or anything, but maybe we need to burn one or both of them.

As far as points needed to likely clinch a playoff spot: the line was drawn at 62 to start. We were at 30 over the final 30. We'd now need 24 over the final 21 to get there.

If we ended up tied with Arizona on points, right now they'd win the 1st tiebreak (regulation wins). If we ended up tied with Los Angeles, right now we'd win the 2nd tiebreak (regulation + OT wins) but given they have 3 games in hand if they won all 3 games it's likely they'd get at least one win in regulation and move ahead of us on the 1st tiebreak or 2 wins in (OT but not regulation or the shootout) and then they'd win the 4th tiebreak (head-to-head) because we'd be tied on total wins.

Short: we've eaten up the margin of error we had, and the outlook is ... not good.

why bother making the playoffs? team sucks ass and plays down to inferior teams and gets creamed by good ones. joke pandemic season too, who cares anymore.

 

[BlueKnight]

I’ll stand by the offer, but he didn’t take me up on it anyway.

I apologize, I thought I replied back to you. I guess I didn't. I'll take your offer if it still stands.

I do have a very small of sliver of hope that the Blues make the playoffs and go on a run.

 

[Stealth JD]

For as bad as things have gotten, they're playing a lot of close games. I still think they ultimately make the playoffs; but the next week or two while the team awaits Parayko's return I think we'll see them bottom out and maybe get passed by LA or PHX. The concern there is by that point you're 40 games into a 56 game season, needing to play catch-up (against good-to-great teams) and there's a non-zero risk that Covid prevents every team from playing a full 56 and they may need to roll-back to 48-game results, or use points percentage to determine playoff seeding. Adding a #1D to this group alleviates a lot of what is wrong, and if he's 90% healthy I suspect Parayko's return will mark the return of winning hockey, regardless of the opponent. But if the big man misses another 10-15 games, this season is toast and they may as well not let him return at all; take the lumps and the better draft pick and focus on getting guys healthy.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

... but the next week or two while the team awaits Parayko's return ... if he's 90% healthy I suspect Parayko's return will mark ...

I don't think they can wait on Parayko returning. I think they have to assume he's not coming back this season and figure out how to carry on without him, and if he comes back it's a bonus.

I saw he skated the other day. Great. How long is he skating? Is he skating every day? Is he skating any any kind of a pace beyond "really leisurely?" Is he looking [more] comfortable when skating? Is he handling a puck much? Has he shot the puck any, even if all just lazy wristers at the net? Has he would up and shot it even once? If he's going to be back in 2 weeks, he's got to be able to do all of that stuff and play himself back into game shape, which includes being able to take contact. Now. Shortly. Very shortly.

What I suspect is the more realistic scenario is this:

... if the big man misses another 10-15 games, this season is toast and they may as well not let him return at all; take the lumps and the better draft pick and focus on getting guys healthy.

If he's not close to being back in 10-12 days and we're still doing what we're doing right now - and by close I mean "we're talking about him being back in the lineup at Arizona on the 17th or the 3-game homestand vs. Colorado right after," I don't see any reason to buy for this group. Sell, collect assets, regroup for next year and replenish the future asset pool a little.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I apologize, I thought I replied back to you. I guess I didn't. I'll take your offer if it still stands.

I do have a very small of sliver of hope that the Blues make the playoffs and go on a run.

Ok, the bet is official. Blues miss playoffs, I’ll wear an avatar of your choosing for a month, and if they do make it you wear one I choose. I guess I can’t put you on ignore.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

The only defenseman who suited up for Blues yesterday that played in Game 7 of Stanley Cup Final in 2019 was Torrey Krug. Hat tip to Andy Strickland for that tidbit.

 

[Mike Liut]

If we get our asses handed to us by Col, Vegas and the Wild, we could be looking a really high pick this year. I wouldn’t be upset with that. It’s just not our year, but a high pick would be a good consolation prize.

 

[MissouriMook]

If we get our asses handed to us by Col, Vegas and the Wild, we could be looking a really high pick this year. I wouldn’t be upset with that. It’s just not our year, but a high pick would be a good consolation prize.

I count 8 teams that are currently 6 points or more behind us and 3 of those are in our division, presumably with quite a few games against those same top teams. I think we would need to get fewer than 10 points in our last 21 games to end up in a Top 10 slot. We’d have to be Buffalo-esque in the last 21 games to end up in the bottom 5, and I’m not sure even that would be enough.

I think we’re destined to pick in the 13-18 range regardless of how the next 6 weeks pan out. We’ll either be just good enough to get in or be one of the top 3 teams that miss the playoffs.

 

[Mike Liut]

I count 8 teams that are currently 6 points or more behind us and 3 of those are in our division, presumably with quite a few games against those same top teams. I think we would need to get fewer than 10 points in our last 21 games to end up in a Top 10 slot. We’d have to be Buffalo-esque in the last 21 games to end up in the bottom 5, and I’m not sure even that would be enough.

I think we’re destined to pick in the 13-18 range regardless of how the next 6 weeks pan out. We’ll either be just good enough to get in or be one of the top 3 teams that miss the playoffs.

We’ve won 2 of our last 11 with an easier schedule. Nearly all of our remaining games are against col, Vegas and Min. We could easily get our asses handed to us.

 

[MissouriMook]

We’ve won 2 of our last 11 with an easier schedule. Nearly all of our remaining games are against col, Vegas and Min. We could easily get our asses handed to us.

And we still managed to accumulate 8 points in those 11 games going 2-5-4. We could go 3-14-4 and still accumulate 10 points in the last 21 games and end up with the 10th overall pick.

My guess is we go 6-11-4 at worst and 11-7-3 at best. We have won only 4 of 16 home games and have 12 more left. We have to win at least 6 of those 12, right? Right? If we go 3-7 against Vegas and Colorado we would need to go 7-4 against Minnesota, Arizona, LA and Anaheim to get 10 more wins. Despite what we’ve seen the last few weeks, I think that’s doable, just maybe not enough to make the playoffs.

 

[Mike Liut]

And we still managed to accumulate 8 points in those 11 games going 2-5-4. We could go 3-14-4 and still accumulate 10 points in the last 21 games and end up with the 10th overall pick.

My guess is we go 6-11-4 at worst and 11-7-3 at best. We have won only 4 of 16 home games and have 12 more left. We have to win at least 6 of those 12, right? Right? If we go 3-7 against Vegas and Colorado we would need to go 7-4 against Minnesota, Arizona, LA and Anaheim to get 10 more wins. Despite what we’ve seen the last few weeks, I think that’s doable, just maybe not enough to make the playoffs.

possibly, but a few more losses could be demoralizing and it could go south real fast. We will be facing some pretty good and hungry teams. Those teams won’t let off the pedal against us.

 

[Mike Liut]

I hope we are sellers at this point.

 

[Stealth JD]

Statistically, the Blues are on the outside looking in:

This model gives them about a 10% chance of making the playoffs and winning a round...or a 90% likelihood of this being a garbage season all-around.
This model isn't perfect, but even if they're given a 25% chance of 'making a run' and causing damage...is that enough to ignore the ~ 75% likelihood of coming up short and either getting waxed in Rd. 1 or missing the playoffs entirely? I'm not so sure.

I think Army will give his club a chance to pull out of this tailspin and try to get healthy and playing cohesively; but if he knows #55 isn't coming back healthy, I suspect he'll begin looking towards the future and focus on getting past the E.D. and draft in the best shape possible.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Statistically, the Blues are on the outside looking in:

View attachment 415310

This model gives them about a 10% chance of making the playoffs and winning a round...or a 90% likelihood of this being a garbage season all-around.
This model isn't perfect, but even if they're given a 25% chance of 'making a run' and causing damage...is that enough to ignore the ~ 75% likelihood of coming up short and either getting waxed in Rd. 1 or missing the playoffs entirely? I'm not so sure.

I think Army will give his club a chance to pull out of this tailspin and try to get healthy and playing cohesively; but if he knows #55 isn't coming back healthy, I suspect he'll begin looking towards the future and focus on getting past the E.D. and draft in the best shape possible.

Next 6 games leading up to deadline will be key. If Army doesn't like what he sees I expect that we could be sellers.

 

[Frenzy31]

Statistically, the Blues are on the outside looking in:

View attachment 415310

This model gives them about a 10% chance of making the playoffs and winning a round...or a 90% likelihood of this being a garbage season all-around.
This model isn't perfect, but even if they're given a 25% chance of 'making a run' and causing damage...is that enough to ignore the ~ 75% likelihood of coming up short and either getting waxed in Rd. 1 or missing the playoffs entirely? I'm not so sure.

I think Army will give his club a chance to pull out of this tailspin and try to get healthy and playing cohesively; but if he knows #55 isn't coming back healthy, I suspect he'll begin looking towards the future and focus on getting past the E.D. and draft in the best shape possible.

I am not to invested in this season. If we miss the playoffs and get a top 14 pick I would be fine.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Statistically, the Blues are on the outside looking in:

View attachment 415310

This model gives them about a 10% chance of making the playoffs and winning a round...or a 90% likelihood of this being a garbage season all-around.
This model isn't perfect, but even if they're given a 25% chance of 'making a run' and causing damage...is that enough to ignore the ~ 75% likelihood of coming up short and either getting waxed in Rd. 1 or missing the playoffs entirely? I'm not so sure.

I think Army will give his club a chance to pull out of this tailspin and try to get healthy and playing cohesively; but if he knows #55 isn't coming back healthy, I suspect he'll begin looking towards the future and focus on getting past the E.D. and draft in the best shape possible.

This model looks at the schedule, but I don’t believe it will project Parayko’s return or have any nuance about players back from injury getting back into game shape after a few games.

But to me the most remarkable thing on that graph is Colorado at 24% Cup winners. That’s nuts for a team to be that high. Good for them.

 

[Thallis]

This model looks at the schedule, but I don’t believe it will project Parayko’s return or have any nuance about players back from injury getting back into game shape after a few games.

But to me the most remarkable thing on that graph is Colorado at 24% Cup winners. That’s nuts for a team to be that high. Good for them.

They have been absolutely insane in the possession metrics these models are usually built around.

 

[Xerloris]

Calm down. When we get a new captain we miss the playoffs the first year and then win the cup the next year. That's how it works right?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

But to me the most remarkable thing on that graph is Colorado at 24% Cup winners. That’s nuts for a team to be that high. Good for them.

Supposedly Minnesota was the big favorite a handful of days ago. (I don't follow the site, I don't log what it says from day to day; just going off a remark I saw elsewhere on the main boards.) If that was correct, then I might suggest if your model is swinging that hard that quickly, perhaps something might be wrong with your model.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Courtesy of hockey-reference

Team​	W​	L​	OL​	Pts​	GF​	GA​	GF/G​	GA/G​
Ducks	4​	1​	1​	9​	21​	15​	3.50​	2.50​
Coyotes	3​	3​	1​	7​	20​	20​	2.86​	2.86​
Avalanche	1​	1​	0​	2​	4​	9​	2.00​	4.50​
Kings	2​	4​	1​	5​	15​	23​	2.14​	3.29​
Wild	0​	1​	0​	0​	0​	2​	0.00​	2.00​
Sharks	5​	1​	2​	12​	29​	25​	3.63​	3.13​
Golden Knights	1​	2​	1​	3​	11​	99​	2.75​	4.75​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'm still hopeful of playoffs, even considering our relative SOS the rest of the way.

If we match the game that we just lost to the Wild for the rest of that season series, I like our chances of winning that season series.

No reason to not finish out the Kings, Ducks and Coyotes season series with 3 of 4 wins.

That leaves 6 vs the Avs and 4 vs the Knights. The Knights clearly have our number right now. Let's see how the team looks tomorrow night vs the Avs.

 

[WeWentBlues]

This team has never done anything the easy way

 

[DeuceNine]

The constant good thing here is that recent Cup win. We're never in panic "must win now" mode, because we just did in the last real season. Therefore, I expect Army will not rush anyone back that isn't 100%, and look to the future. After all (correct if I'm wrong) you can't expose injured players in the draft. So we need everyone healthy by the end of the year, not necessarily at playoff time.