Value of: Players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract, where are the steals?

[TS Quint]

The vast majority on this board don’t know math, never met it, never heard of it, never understood it. You can’t expect these people to understand what the rising cap even means. They certainly don’t know what a good contract is 5 years from now. They just know “the cap is going up” and any raise in the cap goes to whatever player they are trying to sign. Not how it works.

 

[TS Quint]

This list is only for 8 year deals, but Zach Hyman signed for 7 years (max length) and that contract is definitely a steal.

Zach Hyman is still the player he was in Toronto. The reason they pay McDavid so much is because he adds whatever increase in points Hyman has gotten. the increase in production is McDavids production not Hyman’s. Just like when Maroon went from 11 goals to 29 with McDavid and back to 11. Those 18 goals were McDavid’s not Maroon’s.

 

[ScottyMascotty]

So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**

I'd argue that most of this list are worth their money for now.

 

[smytty]

Zach Hyman is still the player he was in Toronto. The reason they pay McDavid so much is because he adds whatever increase in points Hyman has gotten. the increase in production is McDavids production not Hyman’s. Just like when Maroon went from 11 goals to 29 with McDavid and back to 11. Those 18 goals were McDavid’s not Maroon’s.

Wow, what an original insight. McDavid definitely adds to his point totals but stop trying to take away from what he did this year.

 

[Xoggz22]

Is it just me or do over half of those look pretty good?

Funny... I did a quick glance and was thinking...wow, that's a lot of ugly in there.

 

[Figgy44]

Is it just me or do over half of those look pretty good?

I think about 2-3 look really damn good, almost everyone else looks really damn solid (orgs have no regret), and about 2-3 look absolutely awful (major regret).

I think the steals are the contracts with 3-4/8 remaining, not more than half remaining.

 

[Essenege]

No steal on this list like Nurse stole the Oilers.

It’s a reminder of the risk involved in those contracts, 3/5 end up as steals, 1/5 neutral, 1/5 absolute dog shit. 1 dog shit contract where you pay 4-6 millions too much basically negates the 2-3 steals

 

[MakoSlade]

Funny... I did a quick glance and was thinking...wow, that's a lot of ugly in there.

You're both right!

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If I'm being conservative and say that a "steal" is somebody that would make and deserve at least 25% more than their listed cap if they went to market today, I've got:

Barkov, Tkachuk, Point, Forsberg, Heiskanen, Hughes, Suzuki, Reilly, Lindholm, Eriksson Ek and Nugent-Hopkins as "steals". McAvoy very close; wouldn't wildly disagree if you have him here too.

 

[CannonFire1]

There is a difference between "worth the contract" or "slight underpayment" vs. a true "steal". From this list, I would put Heiskanen, Hughes, Ericsson-Ek, Nugent-Hopkins, and Suzuki as steals.

 

[TS Quint]

Wow, what an original insight. McDavid definitely adds to his point totals but stop trying to take away from what he did this year.

No. You just are doing a weird fan boy thing.

I gave you another example and you couldn’t come up with anything but complaining. Show me something.

 

[Figgy44]

If I'm being conservative and say that a "steal" is somebody that would make and deserve at least 25% more than their listed cap if they went to market today, I've got:

Barkov, Tkachuk, Point, Forsberg, Heiskanen, Hughes, Suzuki, Reilly, Lindholm, Eriksson Ek and Nugent-Hopkins as "steals". McAvoy very close; wouldn't wildly disagree if you have him here too.

I think that's valid for higher value contracts, sure. I'm kinda in the same vein, but my definition was that it was so low it was enough to almost add half a contract (to upgrade from a lower calibre player) or pay for another full key role player on the roster. I considered a key role player typically makes a $3-5 million dollar player.

25% of a 9 million dollar+ AAV contract, yeah, that's upgrading from a $1 million AAV guy to a $3 million AAV guy.

 

[Petes2424]

It’s tough to find a better bargain in the league (on a star player) than Heiskanen. From the same team though, Seguin might be the worst of the lot, with Norris and Couturier being the most frustrating.

This is gonna be a big subject 2-3 years from now, with all the long term wealth contracts we’re seeing handed out to 21-23 year old players, who’ve only had one big year, etc. This theory of overpaying them early, in hopes the player becomes a “consistent” high-end player, and hopefully a great value contract. Lots of teams taking big chances.

Ottawa is already kind of paying for one of those with Norris. He just can’t stay on the ice. Then to have Stutzle underperforming in year 1 of his deal as well, can’t be the greatest feeling in Ottawa’s front office. Not to mention Chabot.

So the theory behind these long term deals, can end up biting a team. All 3 of those Ottawa players can live up to those deals. They’re all that talented. That’s the good part of it. They just haven’t yet, and let’s face it… at the end of the day, nobody accepts the injury card when you look back at a contract. Great current example is someone like Andrew Copp. Nobody makes the “core surgery” excuse for the guy NOT performing up to his contract, even though he had a surgery that takes 2 years before you feel normal again, if you ever do. He’s just considered overpaid….. It’ll be no different if Stutzle continues to not perform up to his contract, because of lingering injuries, he’s playing through. He’ll end up viewed worse than Norris because he’s actually playing. Strange logic, but that’s just how it is. If you’re playing, fans expect the production. Even if your wrist isn’t working right, or you can’t hit that next gear driving to the net, or getting separation, because your core strength isn’t back to normal yet.

So it’s a big year for a guy like Stutzle, to prove he’s worth $8.35m per. If he doesn’t this year, people will start talking.

That’s the downside of paying guys massive amounts of money for one big year. Sometimes they’re gonna be great value deals, sometimes they’ll be just right, and other times, they’ll become anchor contracts like Seguin’s. It’s the chance you take.

 

[smytty]

No. You just are doing a weird fan boy thing.

I gave you another example and you couldn’t come up with anything but complaining. Show me something.

Hyman is not Maroon, and what about all if the other line mates that didn't have huge numbers while playing with him? McDavid also puts up better numbers with Hyman on the ice than without him, does that mean Hyman carries McDavid What else do you want me to come up with? Watch the games, Hyman is a bargain at $5+ million.

 

[TS Quint]

Hyman is not Maroon, and what about all if the other line mates that didn't have huge numbers while playing with him? McDavid also puts up better numbers with Hyman on the ice than without him, does that mean Hyman carries McDavid What else do you want me to come up with? Watch the games, Hyman is a bargain at $5+ million.

Yeah, sure, Hyman just suddenly became twice as good at 30. That’s totally what happened. Good talk.

 

[AKL]

Yeah, sure, Hyman just suddenly became twice as good at 30. That’s totally what happened. Good talk.

McDavid may have contributed greatly to Hyman's scoring increase, but Hyman still has to be good enough to be in position and physically score the goals without screwing it up. There are plenty of NHL players that could not do what Hyman has done, even if they played with McDavid.

 

[Mogo]

Sergei Bobrovsky

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Feels like Point needs more love in this thread. 40-50 goals and over 90 points regularly, great 2 way player and a playoff beast as well. Sure he benefits from playing with Kucherov, but Point is an amazing player on his own. If he is a free agent today, he should be getting $11m+.

 

[CanadienShark]

Around half your list are very, very good value. Mostly young stars who signed early.

 

[dgibb10]

Point Tkachuk Barkov and McAvoy not getting nearly enough love here. i get 9 mill+ makes it feel "big"

But the gap between some of these guys is worth at least a mill or 2 when we're talking legit superstars vs just stars.

Hughes 1
Heiskanen 2
Tkachuk 3
McAvoy 4
Barkov/Point 5 or 6
Suzuki 7

 

[TS Quint]

McDavid may have contributed greatly to Hyman's scoring increase, but Hyman still has to be good enough to be in position and physically score the goals without screwing it up. There are plenty of NHL players that could not do what Hyman has done, even if they played with McDavid.

I didn't say he was a bad player.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

I think OP makes a good point. Most of the players on the list are paid what they are worth. I don't see any steals. The only one that is possibly underpaid is Miro but not by much.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Barkov - 2 selkes, stanley cup, best 2-way forward in the league and 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Sets the bar for Florida`s players

Tkachuk - 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons. Hard-nosed player who make space for his teammates and is very hard to play against.

Heiskanen - Top5 young 1D in the league. Very good 2-way player

Hughes - Tremendous young 1C with 3 consecutive PPG+ seasons at a VERY good deal. Top10 C in the league.

Suzuki - Young 1C and captain of the Canadians. Gets better every year and sets the bar for the teams rebuild as their best player and Captain

RNH - Reliable 2-way C/W, who you can put on ice in any situation. Is on a VERY cheap contract for what he brings. One of the best contracts in the league.

You missed only Eriksson Ek.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

In no order

RNH
Joel Erkisson Ek
Miro
Tkachuk
Hughes

Point and Forsberg look like good value to me also but this is a good list

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Barkov, Tkachuk, Heiskanen, Nichushkin(On ice anyway), JEE...


They're all huge steals.