Value of: Players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract, where are the steals?

[TS Quint]

The vast majority on this board don’t know math, never met it, never heard of it, never understood it. You can’t expect these people to understand what the rising cap even means. They certainly don’t know what a good contract is 5 years from now. They just know “the cap is going up” and any raise in the cap goes to whatever player they are trying to sign. Not how it works.

 

[TS Quint]

This list is only for 8 year deals, but Zach Hyman signed for 7 years (max length) and that contract is definitely a steal.

Zach Hyman is still the player he was in Toronto. The reason they pay McDavid so much is because he adds whatever increase in points Hyman has gotten. the increase in production is McDavids production not Hyman’s. Just like when Maroon went from 11 goals to 29 with McDavid and back to 11. Those 18 goals were McDavid’s not Maroon’s.

 

[ScottyMascotty]

So whenever a "star/prospect" player is signed to a long term contract, unmistakently you will get the STEAL comment "that contract will be a steal in 3 years" etc... Below is a list of all 25 current players with 4-5 years remaining on an 8 years contract. Do you see many that qualify as a steal?
**credit: data found on puckpedia**

I'd argue that most of this list are worth their money for now.

 

[smytty]

Zach Hyman is still the player he was in Toronto. The reason they pay McDavid so much is because he adds whatever increase in points Hyman has gotten. the increase in production is McDavids production not Hyman’s. Just like when Maroon went from 11 goals to 29 with McDavid and back to 11. Those 18 goals were McDavid’s not Maroon’s.

Wow, what an original insight. McDavid definitely adds to his point totals but stop trying to take away from what he did this year.

 

[Xoggz22]

Is it just me or do over half of those look pretty good?

Funny... I did a quick glance and was thinking...wow, that's a lot of ugly in there.

 

[Figgy44]

Is it just me or do over half of those look pretty good?

I think about 2-3 look really damn good, almost everyone else looks really damn solid (orgs have no regret), and about 2-3 look absolutely awful (major regret).

I think the steals are the contracts with 3-4/8 remaining, not more than half remaining.

 

[Essenege]

No steal on this list like Nurse stole the Oilers.

It’s a reminder of the risk involved in those contracts, 3/5 end up as steals, 1/5 neutral, 1/5 absolute dog shit. 1 dog shit contract where you pay 4-6 millions too much basically negates the 2-3 steals

 

[MakoSlade]

Funny... I did a quick glance and was thinking...wow, that's a lot of ugly in there.

You're both right!

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If I'm being conservative and say that a "steal" is somebody that would make and deserve at least 25% more than their listed cap if they went to market today, I've got:

Barkov, Tkachuk, Point, Forsberg, Heiskanen, Hughes, Suzuki, Reilly, Lindholm, Eriksson Ek and Nugent-Hopkins as "steals". McAvoy very close; wouldn't wildly disagree if you have him here too.

 

[CannonFire1]

There is a difference between "worth the contract" or "slight underpayment" vs. a true "steal". From this list, I would put Heiskanen, Hughes, Ericsson-Ek, Nugent-Hopkins, and Suzuki as steals.

 

[TS Quint]

Wow, what an original insight. McDavid definitely adds to his point totals but stop trying to take away from what he did this year.

No. You just are doing a weird fan boy thing.

I gave you another example and you couldn’t come up with anything but complaining. Show me something.

 

[Figgy44]

If I'm being conservative and say that a "steal" is somebody that would make and deserve at least 25% more than their listed cap if they went to market today, I've got:

Barkov, Tkachuk, Point, Forsberg, Heiskanen, Hughes, Suzuki, Reilly, Lindholm, Eriksson Ek and Nugent-Hopkins as "steals". McAvoy very close; wouldn't wildly disagree if you have him here too.

I think that's valid for higher value contracts, sure. I'm kinda in the same vein, but my definition was that it was so low it was enough to almost add half a contract (to upgrade from a lower calibre player) or pay for another full key role player on the roster. I considered a key role player typically makes a $3-5 million dollar player.

25% of a 9 million dollar+ AAV contract, yeah, that's upgrading from a $1 million AAV guy to a $3 million AAV guy.